Expert Panel Upwardly Revises Home Price Growth Outlook, Still Expects Deceleration in 2025 and 2026
Housing experts have revised their home price growth forecasts upward, now expecting 5.2% growth in 2024, followed by deceleration to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, according to Fannie Mae's Q4 2024 Home Price Expectations Survey. The panel anticipates sluggish existing home sales in 2025, with mortgage rates expected to moderately decline to 6.3%.
About 80% of respondents predict price growth deceleration, citing high mortgage rates, increasing inventory, and slower wage growth. A minority forecasts faster appreciation, pointing to strong first-time homebuyer demand and tight inventory. Despite expected deceleration, projected price increases through 2029 remain above anticipated economy-wide inflation, suggesting persistent affordability challenges.
Gli esperti del settore abitativo hanno rivisto al rialzo le loro previsioni di crescita dei prezzi delle case, ora aspettandosi un incremento del 5,2% nel 2024, seguito da un rallentamento a 3,8% nel 2025 e 3,6% nel 2026, secondo il sondaggio sulle aspettative dei prezzi delle case di Fannie Mae per il quarto trimestre del 2024. Il gruppo prevede vendite di case esistenti poco brillanti nel 2025, con tassi ipotecari che si prevede diminuiranno moderatamente a 6,3%.
Circa l'80% degli intervistati prevede un rallentamento della crescita dei prezzi, citando tassi ipotecari elevati, un aumento dell'inventario e una crescita dei salari più lenta. Una minoranza prevede un apprezzamento più rapido, facendo riferimento a una forte domanda da parte dei primi acquirenti e a un inventario ristretto. Nonostante il rallentamento previsto, gli aumenti di prezzo previsti fino al 2029 rimangono sopra l'inflazione economica attesa, suggerendo sfide persistenti in termini di accessibilità.
Los expertos en vivienda han revisado al alza sus pronósticos de crecimiento del precio de las casas, ahora esperando un crecimiento del 5,2% en 2024, seguido de una desaceleración a 3,8% en 2025 y 3,6% en 2026, según la Encuesta de Expectativas de Precios de Vivienda del cuarto trimestre de 2024 de Fannie Mae. El panel anticipa ventas de casas existentes lentas en 2025, con tasas hipotecarias que se espera disminuyan moderadamente a 6,3%.
Aproximadamente el 80% de los encuestados predice una desaceleración en el crecimiento de los precios, citando altas tasas hipotecarias, aumento de inventario y un crecimiento salarial más lento. Una minoría pronostica una apreciación más rápida, señalando una fuerte demanda de compradores de vivienda por primera vez y un inventario limitado. A pesar de la desaceleración esperada, los aumentos de precios proyectados hasta 2029 se mantienen por encima de la inflación económica anticipada, sugiriendo desafíos persistentes en la accesibilidad.
주택 전문가들은 주택 가격 성장 예측을 상향 조정하여, 2024년에 5.2% 성장할 것으로 기대하고, 2025년에는 3.8%, 2026년에는 3.6%으로 둔화될 것으로 전망하고 있습니다. 이는 Fannie Mae의 2024년 4분기 주택 가격 기대 조사에 따른 것입니다. 패널은 2025년에 기존 주택 판매가 부진할 것으로 예상하며, 주택담보대출 금리는 6.3%으로 적당히 감소할 것으로 보입니다.
응답자의 약 80%가 높은 주택담보대출 금리, 증가하는 재고, 느린 임금 성장 등을 이유로 가격 성장 둔화를 예측하고 있습니다. 소수는 강력한 첫 주택 구매 수요와 제한된 재고를 지적하며 더 빠른 가치 상승을 예측하고 있습니다. 예상되는 둔화에도 불구하고, 2029년까지의 예상 가격 상승은 전반적인 경제의 인플레이션 예상치를 초과하며, 지속적인 주거 가능성 문제를 시사합니다.
Les experts en logement ont révisé à la hausse leurs prévisions de croissance des prix immobiliers, s'attendant désormais à une croissance de 5,2% en 2024, suivie d'un ralentissement à 3,8% en 2025 et 3,6% en 2026, selon l'enquête sur les attentes en matière de prix immobiliers de Fannie Mae pour le quatrième trimestre de 2024. Le panel anticipe des ventes de maisons existantes stagnantes en 2025, avec des taux hypothécaires censés baisser modérément à 6,3%.
Environ 80% des répondants prévoient un ralentissement dans la croissance des prix, citant des taux hypothécaires élevés, une augmentation des stocks et une croissance salariale lente. Une minorité prévoit une appréciation plus rapide, en soulignant une forte demande des primo-accédants et un inventaire limité. Malgré le ralentissement prévu, les augmentations de prix projetées jusqu'en 2029 restent supérieures à l'inflation économique attendue, suggérant des défis persistants en termes d'accessibilité.
Immobilienexperten haben ihre Prognosen für das Wachstum der Immobilienpreise nach oben korrigiert und erwarten nun ein Wachstum von 5,2% im Jahr 2024, gefolgt von einer Verlangsamung auf 3,8% im Jahr 2025 und 3,6% im Jahr 2026, so die Umfrage zu den Erwartungen der Immobilienpreise von Fannie Mae für das vierte Quartal 2024. Das Gremium rechnet mit schwachen Verkäufen bestehender Wohnimmobilien im Jahr 2025, wobei die Hypothekenzinsen voraussichtlich moderat auf 6,3% zurückgehen werden.
Etwa 80% der Befragten erwarten eine Verlangsamung des Preiswachstums und führen dafür hohe Hypothekenzinsen, steigende Bestände und langsameres Lohnwachstum an. Eine Minderheit prognostiziert eine schnellere Wertsteigerung und verweist auf die starke Nachfrage von Erstkäufern und niedrige Bestände. Trotz der erwarteten Verlangsamung bleiben die prognostizierten Preiserhöhungen bis 2029 über der erwarteten allgemeinen Inflationsrate, was auf anhaltende Herausforderungen bei der Bezahlbarkeit hinweist.
- Upward revision of home price growth forecast for 2024 to 5.2% from previous 4.7%
- Expected moderate decline in mortgage rates to 6.3% by end of 2025
- Projected continued home price appreciation through 2029 above inflation rates
- Forecasted deceleration in home price growth to 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026
- Expected continuation of sluggish existing home sales in 2025
- Persistent affordability challenges due to elevated mortgage rates and price increases
Panel Also Forecasts Stagnant Home Sales and Only Modestly Lower Mortgage Rates
The Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group also surveyed panelists on their general housing outlook for 2025. On average, the panelists expect existing home sales to remain sluggish for another year, new home sales to trend slightly upward, and mortgage rates to remain elevated but modestly decline over the course of the year to 6.3 percent. Additionally, depending on their expectations for accelerating or decelerating home prices in 2025, the ESR Group also asked for the major factors driving their home price forecast. The largest group, which represents roughly 80 percent of respondents, expects home price growth to decelerate, citing continued high mortgage rates, rising for-sale housing inventory, and slower wage growth as the main drivers. The minority of panelists who expect faster home price appreciation most commonly cited strong pent-up demand from first-time homebuyers, continued tightening of inventory of homes for sale, and easing mortgage rates. Complete results of the Q4 2024 HPES can be found here.
"While home price growth is expected to ease next year, HPES panelists' big-picture view for 2025 appears to be little changed compared to 2024, with most seeing another year of elevated mortgage rates and weak home sales," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "We share our panelists' view that home price growth is likely to decelerate next year, as the mix of continued elevated mortgage rates and the run-up in home prices of the past four years will likely continue to strain affordability and remain an impediment to many would-be homebuyers."
Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics, added: "Although a significant majority of experts expect the nationwide home value appreciation rate will diminish from recent levels, the panelists' annual average projected price increase through 2029 is still well above expectations for economy-wide inflation, suggesting that they expect affordability problems to persist well beyond 2025."
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group, Pulsenomics, LLC, and the surveyed experts included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey
Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC, polls over 100 experts across the housing and mortgage industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years, with the Fannie Mae Home Price Index as the benchmark. On a quarterly basis, Fannie Mae plans to publish the latest panelist-level expectations, as well as a special topic report that includes respondent feedback on topical questions designed to help inform the broader housing industry. The Q4 2024 HPES had 115 respondents and was conducted by Pulsenomics, LLC, between November 12, 2024, and November 22, 2024.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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About Pulsenomics
Pulsenomics® is an independent research and index product development firm that leverages expertise in data analytics, opinion research, financial markets, and economics to deliver insight and market intelligence to institutional clients, partners, and the public at large. To learn more, visit pulsenomics.com.
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