Lenders Maintain Optimism After a Banner Year for Leveraged Credit
FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) released its 2025 Leveraged Loan Market Survey, revealing lenders' optimistic outlook for the lending environment. The survey indicates 27% of respondents expect market conditions to loosen, while 21% anticipate tightening, and 52% predict stability in credit availability and spreads.
Key findings show that Retail & Consumer Products is expected to face the most distress in 2025, followed by Real Estate/REITs and Healthcare. 50% of respondents predict increased default/workout activity compared to 2024. Competition with private credit is intensifying, with 55% of traditional lenders competing at least sometimes with private credit providers.
The survey, conducted between November-December 2024 with approximately 260 respondents, shows reduced concerns about inflation and interest rates impact (9% vs. 31% last year). Only 15% see material recession risks in the next 12 months, down from 42% in the previous year, though 53% consider declaring a soft landing premature.
FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) ha pubblicato il suo sondaggio sul mercato dei prestiti con leva per il 2025, rivelando l'ottimismo dei prestatori rispetto all'ambiente di prestito. Il sondaggio indica che il 27% degli intervistati si aspetta un allentamento delle condizioni di mercato, mentre il 21% prevede un irrigidimento e il 52% prevede stabilità nella disponibilità di credito e negli spread.
I principali risultati mostrano che il Settore Retail e Prodotti di Consumo si prevede affronterà il maggior stress nel 2025, seguito dal Settore Immobiliare/REIT e dalla Sanità. Il 50% degli intervistati prevede un aumento delle attività di default/ristrutturazione rispetto al 2024. La concorrenza con il credito privato sta intensificandosi, con il 55% dei prestatori tradizionali che compete almeno occasionalmente con i fornitori di credito privato.
Il sondaggio, condotto tra novembre e dicembre 2024 con circa 260 intervistati, mostra una riduzione delle preoccupazioni riguardo all'inflazione e all'impatto dei tassi d'interesse (9% rispetto al 31% dell'anno scorso). Solo il 15% vede rischi di recessione materiali nei prossimi 12 mesi, in calo dal 42% dell'anno precedente, sebbene il 53% consideri prematuro dichiarare un atterraggio morbido.
FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) publicó su Encuesta del Mercado de Préstamos Apalancados 2025, revelando el optimismo de los prestamistas respecto al entorno de crédito. La encuesta indica que el 27% de los encuestados espera que las condiciones del mercado se aflojen, mientras que el 21% anticipa un endurecimiento y el 52% predice estabilidad en la disponibilidad de crédito y en los diferenciales.
Los hallazgos clave muestran que el Sector Minorista y Productos de Consumo se espera que enfrente el mayor estrés en 2025, seguido por Bienes Raíces/REITs y Salud. El 50% de los encuestados predice un aumento en la actividad de incumplimiento/reestructuración en comparación con 2024. La competencia con el crédito privado se está intensificando, con el 55% de los prestamistas tradicionales compitiendo al menos a veces con los proveedores de crédito privado.
La encuesta, realizada entre noviembre y diciembre de 2024 con aproximadamente 260 encuestados, muestra una reducción en las preocupaciones sobre la inflación y el impacto de las tasas de interés (9% frente al 31% del año pasado). Solo el 15% ve riesgos de recesión material en los próximos 12 meses, una disminución del 42% del año anterior, aunque el 53% considera prematuro declarar un aterrizaje suave.
FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN)는 2025 연 leveraged 대출 시장 설문조사를 발표하며 대출 환경에 대한 대출자의 낙관적인 전망을 보여주었습니다. 설문조사에 따르면 응답자의 27%가 시장 조건이 완화될 것으로 예상하고, 21%는 긴축을 예상하며, 52%는 신용 가용성과 스프레드에서의 안정성을 예측하고 있습니다.
주요 결과는 소매 및 소비재 부문이 2025년에 가장 큰 스트레스를 받을 것으로 예상되며, 이어서 부동산/REIT 및 의료 분야입니다. 응답자의 50%는 2024년 대비 채무불이행/워크아웃 활동이 증가할 것이라고 예측하고 있습니다. 전통적인 대출자가 적어도 가끔은 개인 신용 제공자와 경쟁하는 가운데, 개인 신용과의 경쟁이 치열해지고 있습니다. 55%의 응답자가 이와 같은 경향을 보였습니다.
2024년 11월부터 12월 사이에 약 260명의 응답자를 대상으로 실시된 이 설문조사는 인플레이션과 금리가 미치는 영향에 대한 우려가 줄어들고 있음을 보여줍니다 (9% 대 31% 작년). 오직 15%만이 향후 12개월 내에 실질적인 경기 침체 위험을 보고하며, 이는 지난해 42%에서 감소한 수치입니다. 그러나 53%는 소프트 랜딩을 선언하는 것이 시기상조라고 생각하고 있습니다.
FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) a publié son enquête sur le marché des prêts à effet de levier 2025, révélant l'optimisme des prêteurs concernant l'environnement de prêt. L'enquête indique que 27% des répondants s'attendent à un assouplissement des conditions du marché, tandis que 21% anticipent un resserrement, et 52% prédisent une stabilité dans la disponibilité de crédit et les spreads.
Les résultats clés montrent que le secteur de la vente au détail et des produits de consommation devrait faire face au plus grand stress en 2025, suivi par l'immobilier/REIT et la santé. 50% des répondants prévoient une augmentation des défauts d paiement/activités de restructuration par rapport à 2024. La concurrence avec le crédit privé s'intensifie, 55% des prêteurs traditionnels rivalisant au moins parfois avec les fournisseurs de crédit privé.
L'enquête, réalisée entre novembre et décembre 2024 auprès d'environ 260 répondants, montre une réduction des préoccupations concernant l'inflation et l'impact des taux d'intérêt (9% contre 31% l'année précédente). Seuls 15% voient des risques de récession importants au cours des 12 prochains mois, en baisse par rapport à 42% l'année précédente, bien que 53% considèrent qu'il est prématuré de déclarer un atterrissage en douceur.
FTI Consulting (NYSE: FCN) hat seine Marktumfrage zu Leveraged Loans 2025 veröffentlicht, die die optimistische Sicht der Kreditgeber auf das Kreditumfeld zeigt. Die Umfrage zeigt, dass 27% der Befragten mit einer Lockerung der Marktbedingungen rechnen, während 21% eine Verschärfung antizipieren und 52% Stabilität bei der Verfügbarkeit von Krediten und den Spreads vorhersagen.
Wichtige Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Einzelhandel und Verbraucherprodukte im Jahr 2025 am stärksten unter Druck stehen dürfte, gefolgt von Immobilien/REITs und Gesundheitswesen. 50% der Befragten rechnen mit einem Anstieg der Ausfall-/Restrukturierungsaktivitäten im Vergleich zu 2024. Der Wettbewerb mit Privatkrediten nimmt zu, wobei 55% der traditionellen Kreditgeber zumindest gelegentlich mit Privatkreditgebern konkurrieren.
Die Umfrage, die zwischen November und Dezember 2024 mit etwa 260 Befragten durchgeführt wurde, zeigt eine Verringerung der Sorgen über Inflation und Zinsen (9% gegenüber 31% im letzten Jahr). Nur 15% sehen in den nächsten 12 Monaten erhebliche Rezessionsrisiken, ein Rückgang von 42% im Vorjahr, obwohl 53% die Erklärung eines sanften Landens als verfrüht ansehen.
- Improved lending environment outlook with 27% expecting looser conditions
- Reduced recession risk expectations (15% vs 42% last year)
- Decreased impact of inflation/interest rates on loan workouts (9% vs 31% last year)
- Strong market resilience despite gradual Fed rate cuts
- 50% of respondents expect increased default/workout activity in 2025
- Increased competition from private credit providers affecting traditional lenders
- Continued distress expected in Retail & Consumer Products sector
- Concerns about lingering inflation and expanding budget deficits
Insights
This comprehensive market survey from FTI Consulting demonstrates the company's deep entrenchment in the leveraged lending space and showcases its valuable market intelligence capabilities. The survey's findings have several key implications:
Business Impact & Revenue Potential:
- The expected increase in default/workout activity (50% of respondents) signals potential growth in FTI's restructuring advisory services, traditionally a high-margin business segment
- The shift in distressed sector predictions (Retail, Real Estate, Healthcare) aligns well with FTI's industry expertise, positioning them to capture incoming advisory mandates
- Growing competition between traditional and private credit lenders (55% reporting some competition) could drive demand for FTI's transaction advisory services
Market Position & Competitive Advantage:
- The survey's robust response rate (260 participants) and high-level respondent profile validates FTI's strong relationships with key decision-makers in the lending community
- The detailed sector-specific insights enhance FTI's credibility as a thought leader in the financial services industry
- The survey's timing and scope demonstrate FTI's ability to provide valuable market intelligence during periods of economic uncertainty
Forward-Looking Implications:
- The moderate optimism in lending markets, combined with expected workout activity, suggests a balanced pipeline of both growth-oriented and restructuring advisory work for FTI
- The nuanced view on the 'soft landing' (only 10% seeing it as achieved) indicates continued demand for FTI's risk assessment and strategic advisory services
- The evolving competitive dynamics in private credit markets could create new opportunities for FTI's transaction and valuation services
WASHINGTON, Feb. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FTI Consulting, Inc. (NYSE: FCN) today announced the results of its 2025 Leveraged Loan Market Survey, which found that lenders expect a continued stable lending environment supported by easing interest rates, plentiful lending capital, slowing inflation and an improved climate for large corporate borrowers in the year ahead.
The annual survey offers insight into bank and non-bank lenders’ perspectives on the state of U.S. leveraged lending and highlights expectations for leveraged credit market conditions in the year ahead. This year’s survey found that despite a huge rally in leveraged loan markets in 2024, more respondents expect market conditions to further loosen (
“Despite the Federal Reserve’s late start to cut rates, which only began in September, and its gradual but ongoing reduction of its securities holdings, financial markets showed remarkable resilience in 2024,” said Chuck Carroll, a Senior Managing Director and Leader of the Senior Lender Advisory practice at FTI Consulting. “Surveyed lenders expressed confidence that the positive leveraged lending momentum from 2024 will carry through 2025.”
Retail & Consumer Products is the industry sector most likely to experience distress in 2025, followed by Real Estate/REITs and Healthcare, a slight reshuffling of the top three spots compared to 2024. However, respondents expressed less concern about default prospects in each of these sectors than they did last year, especially for Real Estate/REITs, while Restaurants/Dining moved into fourth place.
More key findings from the survey include:
- Loan Default Activity Will Remain Elevated: Surprisingly, a majority of respondents said new default/workout activity in the year ahead will increase slightly (
45% ) or increase substantially (5% ) compared to 2024, while just13% expect lower default activity compared to last year. - Competition with Private Credit is Picking Up: A majority (
55% ) of traditional lender respondents said they compete with private credit for deals at least some of the time, while another31% said they compete with private credit most of the time (19% ) or almost all the time (12% ). - Impact of Inflation and High Interest Rates Has Moderated: Just
9% of respondents said the impacts of high inflation/interest rates were primarily responsible for loans in workout, compared to31% in last year’s survey, while idiosyncratic and industry-driven causes were more frequently cited this year. - No Recession in the Near Term, But We’re Not Out of the Woods: Only
15% of respondents said the chances of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months were material or likely, compared to42% who had those expectations last year. However, only10% of respondents said a soft-landing scenario for the U.S. economy was “Mission Accomplished,” while a majority (53% ) said that label was a premature declaration of victory.
The survey also noted a surge in financial markets and business optimism in the United States following the election of President Trump, yet uncertainty lingers around upcoming economic policy initiatives and the impact of any unconventional policies and executive actions. Ten-year Treasury note yields are 70 basis points higher year-over-year, reflecting concerns about lingering inflation and expanding budget deficits with the administration change.
“As the impact of the new U.S. presidential administration becomes clearer, there will inevitably be winners and losers. However, for now, financial markets across the board have embraced the presidential change with enthusiasm,” said Dave Katz, a Senior Managing Director in the Senior Lender Advisory practice within the Corporate Finance & Restructuring segment at FTI Consulting. “Many survey respondents remain confident about the year ahead, but in a more subdued fashion than financial markets suggest.”
Survey Methodology
FTI Consulting surveyed large bank and non-bank lenders between November 18, 2024, and December 16, 2024, including commercial banks, investment banks, private credit platforms, CLOs and BDCs. Respondents included chief credit officers, workout group leaders, managing directors, senior vice presidents, executive directors, directors and vice presidents. The survey received approximately 260 responses, and about
About FTI Consulting
FTI Consulting, Inc. is a global business advisory firm dedicated to helping organizations manage change, mitigate risk and resolve disputes: financial, legal, operational, political & regulatory, reputational and transactional. With more than 8,300 employees located in 34 countries and territories, FTI Consulting professionals work closely with clients to anticipate, illuminate and overcome complex business challenges and make the most of opportunities. The Company generated
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Investor Contact:
Mollie Hawkes
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mollie.hawkes@fticonsulting.com
Media Contact:
Matthew Bashalany
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matthew.bashalany@fticonsulting.com
FAQ
What are the key findings of FCN's 2025 Leveraged Loan Market Survey?
Which sectors does FCN's survey identify as most likely to experience distress in 2025?
What percentage of lenders expect increased default activity in 2025 according to FCN's survey?
How has the impact of inflation and high interest rates changed according to FCN's 2025 survey?
What is the current state of competition between traditional lenders and private credit according to FCN?
