Ericsson Mobility Report: early movers pursue performance-based business models
Ericsson's November 2024 Mobility Report projects significant growth in 5G adoption and mobile network traffic through 2030. The report forecasts 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions by 2030, with 60% being 5G Standalone (SA). Mobile network traffic is expected to grow almost 200% between 2024 and 2030, with 5G networks carrying 80% of total mobile data traffic by 2030. Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues expanding globally as the second-largest 5G use case, with 80% of projected 350 million FWA connections by 2030 expected over 5G. The report emphasizes how early-mover service providers are implementing value-based business models focused on differentiated connectivity rather than data volume.
Il rapporto sulla mobilità di Ericsson di novembre 2024 prevede una crescita significativa nell'adozione del 5G e nel traffico delle reti mobili fino al 2030. Il report stima 6,3 miliardi di abbonamenti globali al 5G entro il 2030, di cui il 60% sarà 5G Standalone (SA). Si prevede che il traffico delle reti mobili crescerà di quasi il 200% tra il 2024 e il 2030, con le reti 5G che gestiranno l'80% del totale del traffico dati mobile entro il 2030. Accesso wireless fisso (FWA) continua a espandersi a livello globale come il secondo più grande caso d'uso del 5G, con l'80% delle proiezioni di 350 milioni di connessioni FWA entro il 2030 attese su rete 5G. Il rapporto sottolinea come i fornitori di servizi che hanno anticipato il mercato stiano implementando modelli di business basati sul valore, focalizzati su una connettività differenziata piuttosto che sul volume di dati.
El Informe de Movilidad de Ericsson de noviembre de 2024 proyecta un crecimiento significativo en la adopción del 5G y del tráfico de redes móviles hasta 2030. El informe pronostica 6.3 mil millones de suscripciones globales al 5G para 2030, de las cuales el 60% serán 5G Standalone (SA). Se espera que el tráfico de redes móviles crezca casi un 200% entre 2024 y 2030, con las redes 5G manejando el 80% del tráfico de datos móviles total para 2030. Acceso Inalámbrico Fijo (FWA) sigue expandiéndose a nivel mundial como el segundo mayor caso de uso del 5G, con el 80% de las proyecciones de 350 millones de conexiones FWA para 2030 esperadas sobre 5G. El informe enfatiza cómo los proveedores de servicios pioneros están implementando modelos de negocio basados en el valor, centrados en una conectividad diferenciada en lugar del volumen de datos.
에릭슨의 2024년 11월 이동성 보고서는 2030년까지 5G 채택과 모바일 네트워크 트래픽의 상당한 성장을 예측합니다. 이 보고서는 2030년까지 전 세계적으로 63억 개의 5G 가입자가 있을 것으로 예상하며, 그중 60%는 5G 독립형(SA)일 것입니다. 모바일 네트워크 트래픽은 2024년과 2030년 사이에 거의 200% 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 2030년까지 5G 네트워크가 총 모바일 데이터 트래픽의 80%를 처리할 것입니다. 고정 무선 접속(FWA)은 5G의 두 번째로 큰 사용 사례로 전 세계적으로 계속 확장되고 있으며, 2030년까지 예상되는 3억 5천만 개의 FWA 연결의 80%가 5G를 통해 이루어질 것으로 기대됩니다. 이 보고서는 시장 선도 서비스 제공업체들이 데이터 양이 아닌 차별화된 연결성에 초점을 맞춘 가치 기반 비즈니스 모델을 구현하고 있다는 점을 강조합니다.
Le rapport sur la mobilité d'Ericsson de novembre 2024 prévoit une croissance significative de l'adoption de la 5G et du trafic des réseaux mobiles jusqu'en 2030. Le rapport prévoit 6,3 milliards d'abonnements mondiaux à la 5G d'ici 2030, dont 60% seront en 5G autonome (SA). Le trafic des réseaux mobiles devrait croître de près de 200% entre 2024 et 2030, avec les réseaux 5G transportant 80% du trafic total des données mobiles d'ici 2030. Accès sans fil fixe (FWA) continue de s'étendre au niveau mondial en tant que deuxième cas d'utilisation de la 5G, avec 80% des 350 millions de connexions FWA projetées d'ici 2030 qui devraient se faire via la 5G. Le rapport souligne comment les fournisseurs de services précurseurs mettent en œuvre des modèles commerciaux basés sur la valeur axés sur une connectivité différenciée plutôt que sur le volume de données.
Der Mobilitätsbericht von Ericsson aus November 2024 prognostiziert ein signifikantes Wachstum bei der 5G-Nutzung und des mobilen Netzwerkverkehrs bis 2030. Der Bericht sagt 6,3 Milliarden globale 5G-Abonnements bis 2030 voraus, von denen 60% 5G Standalone (SA) sein werden. Der mobile Netzwerkverkehr wird zwischen 2024 und 2030 voraussichtlich um fast 200% wachsen, wobei 5G-Netze bis 2030 80% des gesamten mobilen Datenverkehrs übertragen werden. Festnetz-Wireless Access (FWA) wird weiterhin weltweit als zweitgrößter Anwendungsfall für 5G expandieren, wobei 80% der prognostizierten 350 Millionen FWA-Verbindungen bis 2030 über 5G erwartet werden. Der Bericht betont, wie frühzeitige Anbieter von Dienstleistungen wertorientierte Geschäftsmodelle umsetzen, die sich auf differenzierte Konnektivität anstatt auf Datenvolumen konzentrieren.
- Projected growth to 6.3 billion 5G subscriptions by 2030
- Mobile network traffic expected to grow 200% by 2030
- 5G networks to carry 80% of total mobile data traffic by 2030
- FWA connections projected to reach 350 million by 2030
- 5G subscription numbers expected to overtake 4G during 2027
- Declining rate of mobile network traffic data growth (21% year-on-year for 2024)
- Only 30% of global sites currently deployed with 5G mid-band (excluding China)
- Less than 20% of CSPs offering commercial 5G services are 5G SA
Insights
The latest Ericsson Mobility Report reveals significant growth trajectories and strategic shifts in the telecom industry. The projected 200% increase in mobile network data traffic by 2030 and forecast of 6.3 billion 5G subscriptions present substantial revenue opportunities. The transition to value-based pricing models, moving away from data volume-based pricing, signals a fundamental shift in monetization strategies.
Key market indicators show strong growth potential:
- 5G networks expected to carry
80% of total mobile data traffic by 2030 - FWA adoption increasing with
43% of providers offering speed-based tariffs - Only
30% deployment of 5G mid-band globally (excluding China) indicates significant room for infrastructure expansion
The technological evolution outlined in the report highlights critical infrastructure developments. The low
The integration of AI and generative AI applications introduces new technical requirements that could accelerate network upgrades and equipment sales. The projected transition from 4G to 5G dominance by 2027, coupled with early 6G deployment plans for 2030, establishes a clear technology roadmap that should drive sustained demand for Ericsson's solutions.
- Global mobile network data traffic projected to grow almost 200 percent between 2024 and the end of 2030
- 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 - of which 60 percent are expected to be 5G SA
- Report includes case studies from T-Mobile (
U.S.A. ), Elisa (Finland ), and stc (KSA)
While the rate of mobile network traffic data growth is declining - estimated at 21 percent year-on year for 2024 - it is still expected to grow almost three-fold by the end of 2030 from present day numbers.
The report highlights how early-mover service providers are already offering value delivery models based on differentiated connectivity - guaranteed uninterrupted high-end connectivity when you need it most - to create new monetization and growth opportunities. Related case studies from T-Mobile in the
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President, Head of Business Area Networks, Ericsson, says: "Service differentiation and performance-based opportunities are crucial as our industry evolves. This is highlighted in the November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report, which includes detailed analysis, statistical insights, and customer use cases. The shift towards high-performing programmable networks, enabled by openness and cloud, will empower service providers to offer and charge for services based on the value delivered, not merely data volume. This report offers valuable insights into what our industry can achieve and the steps necessary to get there."
The report underlines the global potential for differentiated connectivity development by highlighting that, beyond
Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services, less than 20 percent are 5G SA. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalize on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities.
Almost 60 percent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions.
On global mobile data traffic, 5G networks are expected to carry about 80 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030 - compared to 34 percent by the end of 2024.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to grow in popularity globally as the second largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB).
In four out of six regions, more than 80 percent of CSPs now offer FWA. The number of FWA service providers offering speed-based tariff plans - with downlink and uplink data parameters similar to cable or fiber offerings - has increased from 30 percent to 43 percent in the last year alone.
Of the 350 million projected global FWA connections by the end of 2030, almost 80 percent are forecast to be over 5G.
The report also addresses how AI, including Generative AI Applications - already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches and FWA products - could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions.
Other featured report statistics include the projection that global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach almost 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, amounting to 25 percent of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027.
The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.
The 40-page report includes three case study articles:
- T-Mobile takes network slicing from pilots to real-world scenarios (with T-Mobile in the
U.S. About network slicing use cases.) - Premium FWA services enabled in
Finland with 5G SA (with Elisa inFinland . About Elisa's 5G SA FWA offering.) - A multi-New Radio (NR) carrier strategy for best performance (with stc in the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).
Ericsson will host Ericsson Mobility Report online seminars at 09.00 (CET) and at 18.00 (CET) on Tuesday, December 3. To join please register via this link.
Read the full November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report via this link.
Based on unique Ericsson and partner network insights, the Ericsson Mobility Report has been the key industry reference for network data, performance, statistics, and forecasts since its launch in 2011.
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