DoubleLine Publishes New Briefing on Federal Debt and Deficit Spirals
DoubleLine has published a new research paper by Ryan Kimmel, updating his 2023 outlook on U.S. budget deficit and debt spirals. The paper, titled "U.S. Debt Spiral Briefing: A Scenario Survey as Washington Drifts Toward a Reckoning," explores potential trajectories under various interest rate scenarios.
Kimmel highlights a concerning trend: since 2016, federal deficit spending has broken its decades-long pattern of shrinking during economic expansions. This persistence raises the risk of deeper debt-funded deficits in future recessions. The paper also notes that major institutions like the Congressional Budget Office and International Monetary Fund have issued cautionary statements on the sustainability of the U.S. government's fiscal path.
DoubleLine ha pubblicato un nuovo documento di ricerca di Ryan Kimmel, aggiornando le sue prospettive per il 2023 sul deficit di bilancio degli Stati Uniti e sulle spirali di debito. Il documento, intitolato "U.S. Debt Spiral Briefing: A Scenario Survey as Washington Drifts Toward a Reckoning," esplora le potenziali traiettorie sotto vari scenari di tasso d'interesse.
Kimmel evidenzia una tendenza preoccupante: dal 2016, la spesa deficitaria federale ha interrotto il suo schema decennale di riduzione durante le espansioni economiche. Questa persistenza aumenta il rischio di deficit più profondi finanziati dal debito in future recessioni. Il documento nota anche che importanti istituzioni come il Congressional Budget Office e il Fondo Monetario Internazionale hanno emesso dichiarazioni di cautela sulla sostenibilità del percorso fiscale del governo degli Stati Uniti.
DoubleLine ha publicado un nuevo documento de investigación de Ryan Kimmel, actualizando sus perspectivas para 2023 sobre el déficit presupuestario y las espirales de deuda de EE. UU.. El documento, titulado "U.S. Debt Spiral Briefing: A Scenario Survey as Washington Drifts Toward a Reckoning," explora posibles trayectorias bajo varios escenarios de tasas de interés.
Kimmel destaca una tendencia preocupante: desde 2016, el gasto deficitario federal ha roto su patrón de décadas de reducción durante las expansiones económicas. Esta persistencia aumenta el riesgo de déficits más profundos financiados por deudas en futuras recesiones. El documento también señala que importantes instituciones como la Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso y el Fondo Monetario Internacional han emitido declaraciones de precaución sobre la sostenibilidad del camino fiscal del gobierno de EE. UU.
더블라인은 라이언 킴멜의 새로운 연구 논문을 발표하여 그의 2023년 예측을 미국의 예산 적자 및 부채 악화에 대해 업데이트했습니다. "미국의 부채 악화 브리핑: 워싱턴이 문제에 직면하는 시나리오 조사"라는 제목의 이 논문은 다양한 금리 시나리오에 따른 잠재적인 경로를 탐구합니다.
킴멜은 2016년 이후 연방 적자 지출이 수십 년 간의 패턴을 깨뜨렸다는 우려스러운 경향을 강조합니다. 이러한 지속성은 향후 경기 침체에서 부채에 의존한 더 깊은 적자의 위험을 증가시킵니다. 이 논문은 또한 의회 예산국과 국제통화기금과 같은 주요 기관들이 미국 정부의 재정 경로의 지속 가능성에 대해 주의를 촉구하는 성명서를 발표했음을 언급하고 있습니다.
DoubleLine a publié un nouveau document de recherche de Ryan Kimmel, actualisant ses perspectives pour 2023 sur le déficit budgétaire et les spirales de la dette aux États-Unis. Le document, intitulé "U.S. Debt Spiral Briefing: A Scenario Survey as Washington Drifts Toward a Reckoning," explore les trajectoires potentielles sous divers scénarios de taux d'intérêt.
Kimmel souligne une tendance préoccupante : depuis 2016, les dépenses fédérales en déficit ont rompu leur schéma de réduction pendant les expansions économiques. Cette persistance augmente le risque de déficits plus profonds financés par la dette lors de futures récessions. Le document note également que des institutions majeures telles que le Congressional Budget Office et le Fonds Monétaire International ont émis des déclarations de précaution concernant la durabilité du parcours fiscal du gouvernement américain.
DoubleLine hat ein neues Forschungsdokument von Ryan Kimmel veröffentlicht, das seinen Ausblick für 2023 zum Haushaltsdefizit und den Schuldenspiralen der USA aktualisiert. Das Dokument mit dem Titel "U.S. Debt Spiral Briefing: A Scenario Survey as Washington Drifts Toward a Reckoning" untersucht potenzielle Entwicklungen unter verschiedenen Zinsszenarien.
Kimmel hebt einen besorgniserregenden Trend hervor: Seit 2016 hat die föderale Defizitausgaben ihr jahrzehntelanges Muster durchbrochen, während wirtschaftlicher Expansionen zu schrumpfen. Diese Hartnäckigkeit erhöht das Risiko tieferer, schuldenfinanzierter Defizite in zukünftigen Rezessionen. Das Papier weist auch darauf hin, dass wichtige Institutionen wie das Congressional Budget Office und der Internationale Währungsfonds vorsorgliche Erklärungen zur Nachhaltigkeit des fiskalischen Kurs der US-Regierung abgegeben haben.
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Among emerging risks identified in the briefing, Mr. Kimmel notes that, since 2016, federal deficit spending have broken its decades along pattern of shrinking to more manageable levels during economic expansions after expanding to stimulate the economy during recessions. "Not only do large deficits during growth periods reflect a troubling trend of government spending outpacing revenue generation," he writes, "their persistence raises the danger of much deeper debt-funded deficits in the next and future recessions."
Figures in asset management and banking have issued warnings before about
About DoubleLine
DoubleLine Capital LP is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. DoubleLine's offices can be reached by telephone at (813) 791-7333 or by email at info@doubleline.com. Media can reach DoubleLine by email at media@doubleline.com. DoubleLine® is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP.
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