Farmer sentiment rises as current conditions improve on U.S. farms

Rhea-AI Summary

U.S. farmer sentiment showed significant improvement in February 2025, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rising 11 points to 152. The Current Conditions Index surged 28 points to 137, while the Future Expectations Index increased modestly by 3 points to 159.

The Farm Capital Investment Index reached its highest level since May 2021, jumping 11 points to 59. The Farm Financial Performance Index remained stable at 110, while the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose to 118.

Notable findings include: 50% of farmers either have no growth plans (37%) or plan to exit/retire (13%). Nineteen percent expect 10-15% or higher annual growth, doubling from last year's 9%. Regarding policy concerns, 62% consider passing a new farm bill in 2025 important, with 44% citing trade policy as their top concern. Additionally, 48% believe a trade war affecting U.S. agricultural exports is likely.

Positive

• Current Conditions Index surged 28 points to 137
• Farm Capital Investment Index at highest level since May 2021
• 19% of farmers expect 10-15%+ annual growth, double from previous year
• Farm Financial Performance Index stable at strong 110
• Short-term farmland value expectations improving

Negative

• 48% of farmers expect a potentially damaging trade war
• 50% of farmers have no growth plans or plan to exit/retire
• Future expectations outpace current conditions by 22 points, indicating present challenges

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., March 4, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. farmer sentiment continued its upward trend in February, as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 11 points from the previous month to a reading of 152. The boost was primarily driven by the stronger sentiment among producers, with the Current Conditions Index climbing 28 points to 137 — marking a significant rebound from its low of 76 in late summer and early fall 2024. In contrast, the Future Expectations Index saw only a modest increase, rising 3 points to 159. The recent upswing in sentiment reflects a combination of factors, including a sharp recovery in crop prices, expectations for disaster payments authorized by Congress and continued strength in the U.S. livestock sector. Despite the notable improvement in current conditions, farmers remain more optimistic about the future, as the Future Expectations Index continues to outpace the Current Conditions Index by 22 points. This month's survey was conducted between Feb. 10-14.

The Farm Capital Investment Index jumped 11 points in February to a reading of 59, reaching its most positive level since May 2021. This month's increase also placed the index 4 points above its November postelection reading. Compared to previous months, where future expectations primarily led investment sentiment, February's increase was driven by farmers' improved assessment of current conditions. Meanwhile, the Farm Financial Performance Index held steady at 110, nearly unchanged from January's reading of 111. Although the index saw little movement this month, it remains well above last fall's low of 68.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index modestly increased in February to 118, a 3-point increase from January and 8 points higher than December. This month's reading was also 3 points above its level from a year ago and nearly the same as two years ago. While producers remain less optimistic about farmland values than they were during the winters of 2021 and 2022, sentiment has improved compared to the more cautious outlook seen in late summer and early fall 2024.

"While sentiment about the future remains strong, as reflected in the Future Expectations Index, there's growing interest in making larger investments in farm operations, suggesting that farmers are feeling more confident about their ability to grow despite the challenges ahead," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Each February, the barometer survey asks producers about their five-year growth expectations for their farm operations. In the 2025 survey, 50% of respondents indicated they either have "no plans to grow" (37%) or "plan to exit or retire" (13%), nearly unchanged from 52% in 2024. Since 2016, the share of producers in these two categories has ranged from a low of 43% in 2016 to a high of 61% in 2022. This year's biggest shift came from a decline in the percentage of producers expecting slow growth (less than 5%) and a corresponding increase in those anticipating higher growth rates. Nineteen percent of respondents noted expectations for their farm to grow by 10% to 15% or more annually — more than double the 9% who projected similar growth last year.

Policies impacting agriculture are top of mind for U.S. farmers. Sixty-two percent of survey respondents in February indicated that passing a new farm bill in 2025 is either "important" (25%) or "very important" (47%). When asked about the most crucial policies for their farm over the next five years, 44% cited "trade policy" as their top concern, followed by "crop insurance program" at 18%. Concerns about trade policy were also evident when producers were asked about the likelihood of a "trade war" that results in a significant drop in U.S. agricultural exports. Forty-eight percent of farmers in this month's survey believe a trade war is either "likely" (29%) or "very likely" (19%).

"While the current outlook for U.S. agriculture has improved, farmers are closely watching trade policy and the potential for a new farm bill, both of which are key factors shaping their long-term expectations," said Langemeier. "These ongoing policy concerns will likely play a critical role in shaping producer sentiment in the months ahead."

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.

About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec is a trademark of BrokerTec Americas LLC and EBS is a trademark of EBS Group LTD. The S&P 500 Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI"). "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "SPY®", "SPX®", US 500 and The 500 are trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC; Dow Jones®, DJIA® and Dow Jones Industrial Average are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. These trademarks have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Futures contracts based on the S&P 500 Index are not sponsored, endorsed, marketed, or promoted by S&P DJI, and S&P DJI makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in the United States, Purdue discovers, disseminates and deploys knowledge with a quality and at a scale second to none. More than 107,000 students study at Purdue across multiple campuses, locations and modalities, including more than 58,000 at our main campus in West Lafayette and Indianapolis. Committed to affordability and accessibility, Purdue's main campus has frozen tuition 13 years in a row. See how Purdue never stops in the persistent pursuit of the next giant leap — including its comprehensive urban expansion, the Mitch Daniels School of Business, Purdue Computes and the One Health initiative — at https://www.purdue.edu/president/strategic-initiatives.

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SOURCE CME Group

FAQ

What is the current CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading for February 2025?

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose to 152 in February 2025, an 11-point increase from the previous month.

How much did the Farm Capital Investment Index increase in February 2025?

The Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 11 points to reach 59, its highest level since May 2021.

What percentage of farmers expect significant growth in their operations according to the 2025 survey?

19% of farmers expect their operations to grow by 10-15% or more annually, more than double the 9% from the previous year.

What are farmers' main policy concerns according to the February 2025 CME survey?

44% cited trade policy as their top concern, followed by crop insurance program at 18%. 62% also consider passing a new farm bill in 2025 important.

What is the current Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index reading?

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased to 118 in February 2025, up 3 points from January and 8 points higher than December.