Farmer sentiment in October rebounded ahead of the U.S. election
Farmer sentiment showed a significant improvement in October 2024, with the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rising 27 points to 115. The Future Expectations Index jumped 30 points to 124, while the Current Conditions Index improved to 95. The Farm Financial Performance Index increased by 22 points to 90, nearly matching last year's level. Fewer farmers (53% vs. 73% in September) anticipate challenging times for U.S. agriculture in the coming year. However, over half of surveyed producers reported worse farm financial conditions compared to the previous year. The survey revealed reduced concerns about interest rates and improved expectations for farmland values, with the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rising 25 points to 120.
Il sentiment degli agricoltori ha mostrato un miglioramento significativo nell'ottobre 2024, con il Barometro dell'Economia Agricola della Purdue University/CME Group che è salito di 27 punti a 115. L'Indice delle Aspettative Future è aumentato di 30 punti a 124, mentre l'Indice delle Condizioni Attuali è migliorato a 95. L'Indice delle Prestazioni Finanziarie delle Aziende Agricole è aumentato di 22 punti a 90, avvicinandosi quasi ai livelli dell'anno scorso. Meno agricoltori (53% rispetto al 73% di settembre) prevedono tempi difficili per l'agricoltura statunitense nel prossimo anno. Tuttavia, oltre la metà dei produttori intervistati ha riportato condizioni finanziarie agricole peggiori rispetto all'anno precedente. L'indagine ha rivelato una riduzione delle preoccupazioni per i tassi d'interesse e un miglioramento delle aspettative sui valori delle terre agricole, con l'Indice delle Aspettative sui Valori delle Terre Agricole a Breve Termine che è salito di 25 punti a 120.
El sentimiento de los agricultores mostró una mejora significativa en octubre de 2024, con el Barómetro de la Economía Agrícola de la Purdue University/CME Group que subió 27 puntos a 115. El Índice de Expectativas Futuras saltó 30 puntos a 124, mientras que el Índice de Condiciones Actuales mejoró a 95. El Índice de Rendimiento Financiero Agrícola aumentó 22 puntos a 90, casi igualando el nivel del año pasado. Menos agricultores (53% frente al 73% en septiembre) prevén tiempos difíciles para la agricultura estadounidense en el próximo año. Sin embargo, más de la mitad de los productores encuestados informaron peores condiciones financieras agrícolas en comparación con el año anterior. La encuesta reveló una reducción en las preocupaciones sobre las tasas de interés y unas mejores expectativas sobre los valores de tierras agrícolas, con el Índice de Expectativas de Valores de Tierras Agrícolas a Corto Plazo que aumentó 25 puntos a 120.
농부들의 정서는 2024년 10월에 크게 개선되었으며, 퍼듀 대학/CME 그룹 농업 경제 바 로미터가 27포인트 상승하여 115에 도달했습니다. 미래 기대 지수는 30포인트 증가하여 124에 도달했으며, 현재 상황 지수는 95로 개선되었습니다. 농장 재무 성과 지수는 22포인트 증가하여 90에 도달했으며, 거의 지난해 수준에 근접했습니다. 농부들 중 53%가 내년에 미국 농업에 어려운 시기가 올 것이라고 예상했지만, 이는 9월의 73%에서 줄어든 수치입니다. 하지만 응답한 생산자들 중 절반 이상이 지난해보다 더 나쁜 농장 재무 상황을 보고했습니다. 조사에 따르면 이자율에 대한 우려가 감소하고 농지 가치에 대한 기대가 개선되었으며, 단기 농지 가치 기대 지수가 25포인트 상승하여 120에 이르렀습니다.
Le sentiment des agriculteurs a montré une amélioration significative en octobre 2024, avec le Baromètre de l'Économie Agricole de l'Université Purdue/Groupe CME qui a augmenté de 27 points pour atteindre 115. L'Indice des Attentes Futures a bondi de 30 points à 124, tandis que l'Indice des Conditions Actuelles s'est amélioré pour atteindre 95. L'Indice de Performance Financière des Exploitations a augmenté de 22 points pour atteindre 90, se rapprochant presque du niveau de l'année dernière. Moins d'agriculteurs (53 % contre 73 % en septembre) prévoient des temps difficiles pour l'agriculture américaine au cours de l'année à venir. Cependant, plus de la moitié des producteurs interrogés ont signalé des conditions financières agricoles pires par rapport à l'année précédente. L'enquête a révélé une réduction des préoccupations concernant les taux d'intérêt et des attentes améliorées pour les valeurs des terres agricoles, l'Indice des Attentes de Valeur des Terres Agricoles à Court Terme ayant augmenté de 25 points pour atteindre 120.
Die Stimmung der Landwirte zeigte im Oktober 2024 eine deutliche Verbesserung, da der Agrarökonomische Barometer der Purdue University/CME Group um 27 Punkte auf 115 stieg. Der Index für Zukünftige Erwartungen sprang um 30 Punkte auf 124, während der Index für Aktuelle Bedingungen auf 95 anstieg. Der Index für die Finanzielle Leistung von Betrieben erhöhte sich um 22 Punkte auf 90 und nähert sich damit fast dem Vorjahresniveau. Weniger Landwirte (53 % im Vergleich zu 73 % im September) erwarten, dass die US-Landwirtschaft im kommenden Jahr vor Herausforderungen stehen wird. Allerdings berichteten über die Hälfte der befragten Produzenten von schlechteren finanziellen Bedingungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Die Umfrage ergab eine verringerte Besorgnis über Zinssätze und verbesserte Erwartungen hinsichtlich der Bodenwerte, wobei der Index für Kurzfristige Bodenwert-Erwartungen um 25 Punkte auf 120 anstieg.
- Future Expectations Index increased significantly by 30 points to 124
- Farm Financial Performance Index surged by 22 points to 90
- Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed 25 points to 120
- Percentage of producers expecting tough times decreased from 73% to 53%
- Interest rate concerns decreased from 26% to 15%
- Over 50% of producers reported worse financial conditions than previous year
- Current Conditions Index at 95 indicates weaker conditions than 2015-16 base period
- Farm Capital Investment Index remains low at 42 despite 7-point improvement
Insights
The significant 27-point increase in the Ag Economy Barometer to 115 signals a notable shift in farmer sentiment, with particularly strong improvements in future expectations. The 30-point jump in the Future Expectations Index to 124 suggests growing optimism about the agricultural sector's prospects. Key improvements include:
- Reduction in pessimism about challenging times ahead (from
73% to53% ) - Farm Financial Performance Index surge of 22 points to 90
- Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increase of 25 points to 120
This improved sentiment could positively impact CME Group's agricultural futures trading volumes and revenue, as more optimistic farmers are likely to engage in risk management and hedging activities. However, current conditions remain challenging, with over half of farmers reporting worse financial conditions than last year.
WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind., Nov. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmer sentiment saw an unexpected surge in October ahead of the upcoming
"Examining responses to the barometer's individual questions helps us understand the producers' shift toward a less pessimistic view of the
In October, only
"While producer sentiment improved in October, many respondents indicated they are still feeling financial strain due to the deterioration of their financial situation throughout 2024," said Mintert. "Over half of the producers we surveyed reported that their farm's financial condition was worse than a year ago, which underscores the ongoing challenges producers face despite their more optimistic outlook for the year ahead."
Each month's survey ends with an open-ended question, allowing respondents to share their thoughts and concerns. For October, politics emerged as a frequent topic of discussion, likely influenced by the upcoming elections. Many producers expressed worries about potential policy changes impacting their farms and the agricultural economy, with regulation, environment and taxes featured prominently alongside price concerns. When specifically asked about their worries for the upcoming year, respondents continued to point to higher input costs and lower output prices as their primary concerns. The trend of producers' decreasing concern over interest rates continued this month, with only
One of the most surprising findings from this month's survey was the increase in the Farm Financial Performance Index. This index measures producers' expectations regarding their farm's financial performance over the next 12 months compared to the past year. In October, the index surged to 90, reflecting a 22-point jump from September and falling just 2 points shy of last year's level. Though not solely accountable for the rise in the index, contributing factors likely include high fall crop yields and a stress-free harvest season in the Corn Belt and Plains states. The index's improvement also suggests a growing optimism among farmers about their financial outlook, with expectations for better performance in 2025 compared to 2024. Producers seem to view 2024's weak income prospects as transitory, as there was also a modest improvement in the Farm Capital Investment Index, which reached 42 — a 7-point increase from September.
Both Farmland Value Expectation indices rose this month, indicating that producers are maintaining a level of optimism about the agricultural economy's future strength, which could, in turn, support farmland values. The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, which often correlates with financial performance expectations and the Current Conditions Index, climbed to 120, 25 points higher than the September reading. The long-term index improved to 159, up from 147 the previous month.
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.
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About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research institution demonstrating excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities and with two colleges in the top four in
Writer: Morgan French, mmfrench@purdue.edu
Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu
CME-G
View original content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/farmer-sentiment-in-october-rebounded-ahead-of-the-us-election-302296313.html
SOURCE CME Group
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