Comerica Bank's Texas Index Moved Up

Rhea-AI Summary

Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index rose to 117.5 in April, marking an 18.4% increase from the previous low of 99.2 in June 2020. The index averaged 112.1 in 2020, reflecting a 13.5 point decline from 2019. Seven out of nine sub-indexes showed positive growth, including nonfarm employment and state sales tax revenue. The Texas rig count improved to 221, more than double from a year ago. However, with only 40% of Texans vaccinated against COVID-19 by June 21, the D variant poses a public health risk.

Positive

• Texas Economic Activity Index increased to 117.5 in April, 18.4% above June 2020 low.
• Seven out of nine sub-indexes showed positive growth, indicating economic rebound.
• Drilling rig count improved significantly, reaching 221 active rigs.

Negative

• Only 40% vaccination rate in Texas leaves public health vulnerable to COVID-19 D variant.

DALLAS, June 24, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in April to 117.5. April's index reading was 18.4 percent above the recent low of 99.2 set in June 2020. The index averaged 112.1 points for all of 2020, 13.5 points below the average for 2019. March's index reading was revised to 115.4.

Our Texas Economic Activity Index increased by 1.8 percent in April, continuing the economic rebound from the February freeze out.  Seven out of nine sub-indexes were positive for the month, including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, drilling rig count, total state trade, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenue. The housing starts and industrial electricity demand sub-indexes both contracted for the month. Higher-than-expected oil prices will motivate increased oil field activity in Texas this summer. Some analysts are forecasting $100 oil by the end of the year. If that happens, that would certainly pull capital back into the Texas oil industry. By the third week of June, the Texas rig count had improved to 221 active rigs, more than double the level from a year earlier. The Texas COVID-19 full vaccination rate of about 40 percent as of June 21 leaves a significant amount of the state population exposed to the COVID-19 D variant which is rapidly gaining traction in many parts of the world. According to the Centers for Disease Control, the D variant spreads more easily and causes more severe symptoms than other variants. So COVID-19 remains a significant risk to public health in Texas and other states through the remainder of this year. At this time, we do not anticipate a return to strict social mitigation policies in Texas this year.

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $86.3 billion at March 31, 2021.

To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter: @Comerica_Econ.

 

 

View original content to download multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comerica-banks-texas-index-moved-up-301319763.html

SOURCE Comerica Bank

FAQ

What is Comerica's Texas Economic Activity Index for April 2021?

The Texas Economic Activity Index for April 2021 is 117.5.

How does the April 2021 index compare to previous lows?

April's index is 18.4% above the recent low of 99.2 set in June 2020.

What sub-indexes contributed positively to the Texas Economic Activity Index?

Positive contributors include nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, and state sales tax revenue.

What was the rig count in Texas by late June 2021?

The rig count in Texas improved to 221 active rigs by the third week of June 2021.

What are the current vaccination rates in Texas related to COVID-19?

As of June 21, 2021, the vaccination rate in Texas was about 40%.