Comerica Bank's California Index Improved

Rhea-AI Summary

Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index rose to 104.4 in November, marking a 15% increase from its historical low. This represents the fifth consecutive monthly gain, with seven of the eight components rising. The state faced job losses of 52,200 in December due to renewed social restrictions. The recent improvements in the index align with economic rebounds in Q3 and early Q4, though early vaccine rollout issues and more contagious COVID-19 variants present risks. A $900 billion fiscal stimulus is anticipated to bolster the California economy in H2 2021.

Positive

• California Economic Activity Index increased to 104.4, 15% above the historical low.
• Fifth consecutive monthly gain in the index.
• Seven out of eight components showed improvement.

Negative

• California's payrolls contracted by 52,200 jobs in December.
• Early vaccine rollout issues pose risks to economic recovery.
• Strict social mitigation policies remain in place, limiting economic reopening.

DALLAS, Jan. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index increased in November to a level of 104.4. November's reading is 15 percent above the historical low of 90.4. The index averaged 124.3 points in 2019, 0.4 points above the average for all of 2018. October's index reading was revised to 100.9.

Our California Economic Activity Index improved again in November, marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain.  Seven of the eight components increased for the month including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, state total trade and the Dow Jones Technology Index. Hotel occupancy was the sole negative component for the month. The recent momentum in the California Index is consistent with a partial rebound in the state's economy in Q3 and early Q4. However, the state's labor market weakened in December as California re-entered strict social mitigation policies. California payrolls contracted by a net 52,200 jobs in December. The regional stay-at-home orders were relaxed by Governor Newsom on January 25. Going forward, social mitigation policy will be guided by COVID-19 cases and ICU capacity at the county level. Almost all counties remained at the strictest purple tier as we go to publication, so we expect only a modest reopening of the state economy at the end of January. Early stumbles in vaccine rollout and the prospect of more contagious variants of the coronavirus pose major downside risks to the California economy in the first half of 2021. The $900 billion fiscal stimulus package passed by Congress in December and likely additional stimulus later this year will be key supports, setting the state up for stronger growth in the second half of 2021.

The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $88 billion as of Dec. 31, 2020.

To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter: @Comerica_Econ.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank

FAQ

What is the current reading of Comerica's California Economic Activity Index?

The California Economic Activity Index is currently at 104.4.

How much did payrolls in California decline in December 2020?

California's payrolls declined by 52,200 jobs in December 2020.

What key supports are expected for California's economy in 2021?

A $900 billion fiscal stimulus package is expected to support California's economy.

What are the components of the California Economic Activity Index?

The index comprises nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment insurance claims, housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock index, and hotel occupancy.

What challenges does the California economy face in early 2021?

Challenges include early vaccine rollout issues and the impact of more contagious COVID-19 variants.