BBVA Research publishes its fourth quarter U.S. Economic Outlook
BBVA Research has released its Economic Outlook for Q4 2020, noting that the pandemic and upcoming elections may create short-term uncertainties. Despite past fiscal and monetary interventions cushioning economic impacts, the effects are diminishing, and recovery appears fragile due to rising permanent unemployment and cyclical challenges. The report indicates the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain low rates as it adjusts its balance sheet strategy, impacting the banking sector which has benefitted from increased deposits and favorable policies to preserve credit quality.
- Increased deposits and policy support in the banking industry.
- Continued low interest rates expected from the Federal Reserve.
- Diminishing impact of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
- Rising permanent unemployment rates affecting recovery.
HOUSTON, Oct. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for fourth quarter 2020, anticipating that the pandemic and upcoming election could add noise to the short-term outlook even as medium-term prospects improve.
The report, published by the BBVA Research team headed by BBVA Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp, continues to highlight the ongoing economic impact of the pandemic. According to its authors, significant fiscal and monetary policy intervention did offset the economic fallout of the pandemic, but those stimulus measures are fading. While its impact on activity is declining, recovery from the pandemic remains tenuous due to growing cyclical headwinds and waning stimulus. In addition, as workers adjust to a new reality, seeing a rise in permanent unemployment.
Regarding monetary policy, the team states that despite some improvement in Fed sentiment, the shifts in goals and strategy implies continued low rates for the foreseeable future. The Fed is expected to continue fine-tuning its balance sheet plans as policy shifts from stabilization to accommodation.
The BBVA Research publication further delves into fiscal policy, commercial real estate, and the outlook for the banking industry, which has seen massive expansion in deposits and policy support to limit the deterioration of credit quality.
BBVA USA's research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA USA operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVANews_USA.
Read the full report here.
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About BBVA
BBVA Group
BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in Mexico, it has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt Region of the United States. It is also the leading shareholder in Turkey's Garanti BBVA. Its purpose is to bring the age of opportunities to everyone, based on our customers' real needs: provide the best solutions, helping them make the best financial decisions, through an easy and convenient experience. The institution rests in solid values: Customer comes first, we think big and we are one team. Its responsible banking model aspires to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable society.
BBVA USA
In the U.S., BBVA is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 641 branches, including 330 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 44 in Florida, 37 in Colorado and 17 in New Mexico. The bank ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). In the U.S., BBVA has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 8th nationally in terms of dollar volume of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2018.
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SOURCE BBVA USA
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