Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. - Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results
- 5% revenue increase in Q4 and 3% for the full year
- 7% decrease in Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 and 4% for the full year
- Global beverage can shipments grew by 5% for the year
- Challenges in the European market but confidence in future growth driven by the Americas
- None.
Insights
The recently disclosed financial results from Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMP) indicate a mixed performance, with a noteworthy increase in revenue yet a decline in Adjusted EBITDA. The growth in revenue, particularly in the Americas, suggests an effective market penetration and robust demand in the region. However, the decline in Adjusted EBITDA, a key metric for assessing a company's operational efficiency, points to increased operational costs and challenges in cost absorption. The company's actions to navigate a challenging macro demand environment, such as footprint adjustments and inventory management, are strategic moves aimed at improving future earnings. The near trebling of cash generated from operating activities is a positive sign of liquidity, yet investors may be concerned about the reported losses and the impact of customer destocking in Europe.
AMP's liquidity position, with total liquidity of $812 million, provides a cushion for future investments and operations. The reduction in growth capex for 2023 and the anticipated further reduction in 2024 reflect a cautious approach to capital expenditure amid uncertain market conditions. The company's ability to reduce net leverage through strong cash conversion is a positive sign for debt management. However, modest deleveraging projected for 2024 suggests that significant debt reduction may not occur until later periods.
The commitment to sustainability, evidenced by the supply agreement with Novelis and participation in COP28, aligns with increasing investor interest in ESG factors. While the dividend remains unchanged, it indicates confidence in the company's ability to generate consistent shareholder returns. The outlook for 2024, with shipment growth and Adjusted EBITDA expectations, will be crucial for investors monitoring the company's recovery trajectory and operational efficiency improvements.
AMP's performance reflects broader industry trends where the Americas show resilience and growth potential, while Europe is facing softer demand. The 5% global shipment growth, driven by an 11% increase in the Americas, demonstrates the regional disparity and the strength of the North American and Brazilian markets. The decline in European volumes is concerning and mirrors the cautious consumer sentiment in the region. The beverage can industry is competitive and AMP's focus on sustainability and customer innovation is essential to maintain its market share.
Despite the challenging environment, AMP's record global revenues suggest that the company has successfully leveraged its well-invested global network and diverse customer relationships. The strategic closure of production facilities, such as in Germany and Ohio, is a response to align network capacity with demand, indicating a proactive approach to operational efficiency. This may improve utilization rates and contribute to a healthier margin profile in the future.
The shift in consumer preference towards sustainable packaging, with the beverage can gaining share, presents an opportunity for AMP. The company's emphasis on its metal decarbonization strategy and sustainability initiatives could enhance its brand image and customer loyalty, which is increasingly important in consumer-driven markets. The outlook for 2024, with expected shipment growth and Adjusted EBITDA improvements, suggests cautious optimism for AMP's performance in a recovering market.
The financial results of Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. reflect the macroeconomic challenges faced in 2023, particularly in Europe. The softer European demand and customer destocking actions that led to a decline in Adjusted EBITDA underscore the impact of broader economic factors on the packaging industry. The moderation of inflationary pressures, as mentioned by AMP's CEO, could lead to an improvement in consumer sentiment and spending, which would positively influence demand for packaging solutions.
The company's expectation for improved cost absorption in 2024 suggests anticipation of economic stabilization and growth in the Americas. However, the cautious sentiment in Europe, with recovery expected in the second half of the year, indicates that economic headwinds may persist in the region. The global beverage can market's growth prospects, driven by sustainability trends and packaging innovations, provide a favorable backdrop for AMP's strategic initiatives.
AMP's financial strategy, including working capital improvements and reduced capital expenditures, reflects a prudent approach in a time of economic uncertainty. The focus on liquidity and leverage management is essential for navigating potential market volatility. The outlook for 2024, with Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the range of $630-660 million, implies confidence in the company's ability to adapt to changing economic conditions and capitalize on growth opportunities in the packaging sector.
December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | Change | Constant Currency | |||||
Fourth Quarter | ($'m except per share data) | |||||||
Revenue | 1,132 | 1,076 | 5 % | 2 % | ||||
(Loss)/profit for the period | (56) | 12 | ||||||
Adjusted EBITDA (1) | 148 | 159 | (7 %) | (9 %) | ||||
(Loss)/earnings per share | (0.10) | 0.02 | ||||||
Adjusted earnings per share (1) | 0.01 | 0.05 | ||||||
Dividend per ordinary share | 0.10 | 0.10 | ||||||
Full Year | ||||||||
Revenue | 4,812 | 4,689 | 3 % | 2 % | ||||
(Loss)/profit for the year | (50) | 237 | ||||||
Adjusted EBITDA (2) | 600 | 625 | (4 %) | (4 %) | ||||
(Loss)/earnings per share | (0.12) | 0.38 | ||||||
Dividend per ordinary share | 0.40 | 0.40 |
Oliver Graham, CEO of Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP), said:
"2023 represented a year of transition for our business, as the team navigated a challenging macro demand environment and took decisive actions on our footprint and inventories to position the business for earnings growth in 2024 and beyond. Despite this market context - in particular softer European demand - we achieved record global revenues and shipment volumes, growing by
Our fourth quarter performance was negatively impacted versus our expectations by weaker than forecast sales volumes and orders in
Our confidence in a stronger performance in 2024 reflects our expectations for improved cost absorption due to our contracted pipeline of volume growth in the
- Global beverage can shipments grew by
5% for the full year versus the prior year, which was driven by growth of11% in theAmericas with stronger second half momentum. European volumes declined by2% , reflecting weakness in the second half. - Global beverage can shipments grew by
2% in the quarter versus the prior year quarter, which was driven by growth of14% in theAmericas reflecting continued strong growth inNorth America and a further recovery inBrazil , which also lapped a weak prior year comparable. European shipments declined by10% , below expectations, reflecting a sharp contraction towards the end of the quarter as customers destocked into year-end and closed production facilities earlier than usual for the holiday period. - Americas Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by
3% to as the contribution from higher volumes was partly offset by higher operating costs.$117 million - In
Europe , Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter decreased by31% to due to lower volume/mix and increased fixed costs, as finished goods inventory was right-sized – earlier than expected in response to customer demand – resulting in higher fixed cost under-absorption from reduced production activity and a lower period end contract asset balance. The impact offset stronger input cost recovery versus the prior year and currency effects.$31 million - Remain committed to balancing AMP's network capacity with demand, through a mix of curtailment and longer-term action as appropriate. Remaining steel lines in Weissenthurm,
Germany were closed at the end of the year. The closure of theWhitehouse, Ohio facility in February 2024 and expected growth will improve utilization inNorth America to a more balanced position. - Total liquidity of
, including cash of$812 million , at December 31, 2023 was boosted by a further working capital improvement versus expectations. Record cash inflow for the year from operating activities includes a$443 million working capital inflow more than offsetting a prior year$270 million outflow, predominantly from destocking. Working capital in 2024 is expected to see a further inflow.$202 million - Growth capex of
in 2023 was$266 million 10% lower than guidance and declined by45% on the prior year. Growth capex of approximately is expected in 2024, with a further reduction anticipated in 2025. Near term investment comprises the tail-end of the growth investment program, and flexibility enhancements to optimize the network.$100 million - Net leverage reduced by 0.2x during the quarter through strong cash conversion. Modest deleveraging anticipated in 2024 through Adjusted EBITDA growth and lease principal repayments, with a more meaningful reduction thereafter.
- Regular quarterly ordinary dividend of 10c announced. No change to capital allocation priorities.
- During the quarter, the publication of the 2023 sustainability report highlighted progress on sustainability initiatives and the announced supply agreement with Novelis in
North America for supply from its greenfield development will further contribute towards AMP's metal decarbonisation strategy. Ardagh Metal Packaging alongside other industry stakeholders also participated in a call for action atCOP28 .
2024 outlook:
- Shipment growth approaching a mid-single digit % and full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA in the range of
. Growth supported by shipments growth with improved fixed cost absorption accelerated by the completion of finished goods destocking and footprint rationalization.$630 -660 million - First quarter Adjusted EBITDA in line with the prior year quarter (Q1 2023:
reported;$130 million at constant currency), with growth expected in the$129 million Americas but withEurope lower, as volume recovery is weighted towards the second half.
Financial Performance Review Bridge of 2022 to 2023 Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Three months ended December 31, 2023 | ||||||
Revenue | Group | |||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | ||||
Revenue 2022 | 438 | 638 | 1,076 | |||
Organic | (46) | 67 | 21 | |||
FX translation | 35 | — | 35 | |||
Revenue 2023 | 427 | 705 | 1,132 | |||
Adjusted EBITDA | Group | |||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | ||||
Adjusted EBITDA 2022 | 45 | 114 | 159 | |||
Organic | (17) | 3 | (14) | |||
FX translation | 3 | — | 3 | |||
Adjusted EBITDA 2023 | 31 | 117 | 148 | |||
2023 Adjusted EBITDA margin % | 7.3 % | 16.6 % | 13.1 % | |||
2022 Adjusted EBITDA margin % | 10.3 % | 17.9 % | 14.8 % | |||
Year ended December 31, 2023 | ||||||
Revenue | Group | |||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | ||||
Revenue 2022 | 1,963 | 2,726 | 4,689 | |||
Organic | 22 | 57 | 79 | |||
FX translation | 45 | (1) | 44 | |||
Revenue 2023 | 2,030 | 2,782 | 4,812 | |||
Adjusted EBITDA | Group | |||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | ||||
Adjusted EBITDA 2022 | 200 | 425 | 625 | |||
Organic | 8 | (36) | (28) | |||
FX translation | 3 | — | 3 | |||
Adjusted EBITDA 2023 | 211 | 389 | 600 | |||
2023 Adjusted EBITDA margin % | 10.4 % | 14.0 % | 12.5 % | |||
2022 Adjusted EBITDA margin % | 10.2 % | 15.6 % | 13.3 % |
Group Performance
Fourth Quarter
Group
Revenue increased by
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by
Revenue increased by
Adjusted EBITDA increased by
Revenue decreased by
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by
Full Year
Group
Revenue increased by
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by
Revenue increased by
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by
Revenue increased by
Adjusted EBITDA increased by
Earnings Webcast and Conference Call Details
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (NYSE: AMBP) will hold its fourth quarter 2023 earnings webcast and conference call for investors at 9.00 a.m. EST (2.00 p.m. GMT) on Thursday February 22, 2024. Please use the following webcast link to register for this call:
Webcast registration and access:
https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1650882&tp_key=21f949e6c6
Conference call dial in:
International: +44 330 165 4027
Participant pin code: 3305016
An investor earnings presentation to accompany this release is available at https://www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com/investors
About Ardagh Metal Packaging
Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) is a leading global supplier of infinitely recyclable, sustainable, metal beverage cans and ends to brand owners. A subsidiary of sustainable packaging business Ardagh Group, AMP is a leading industry player across
For more information, visit https://www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com/investors
Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the
Non-IFRS Financial Measures
This release may contain certain financial measures such as Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted operating cash flow, Adjusted free cash flow, net debt and ratios relating thereto that are not calculated in accordance with IFRS. Non-IFRS financial measures may be considered in addition to IFRS financial information, but should not be used as substitutes for the corresponding IFRS measures. The non-IFRS financial measures used by Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. may differ from, and not be comparable to, similarly titled measures used by other companies.
Unaudited Consolidated Condensed Income Statement for the three months ended December 31, 2023 and 2022 | ||||||||||||
Three months ended December 31, 2023 | Three months ended December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||
Before | Exceptional | Total | Before | Exceptional | Total | |||||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | |||||||
Revenue | 1,132 | — | 1,132 | 1,076 | — | 1,076 | ||||||
Cost of sales | (999) | (40) | (1,039) | (940) | (20) | (960) | ||||||
Gross profit | 133 | (40) | 93 | 136 | (20) | 116 | ||||||
Sales, general and administration expenses | (66) | — | (66) | (42) | (6) | (48) | ||||||
Intangible amortization | (36) | — | (36) | (33) | — | (33) | ||||||
Operating (loss)/profit | 31 | (40) | (9) | 61 | (26) | 35 | ||||||
Net finance expense | (57) | — | (57) | (46) | 22 | (24) | ||||||
(Loss)/profit before tax | (26) | (40) | (66) | 15 | (4) | 11 | ||||||
Income tax credit | 8 | 2 | 10 | (4) | 5 | 1 | ||||||
(Loss)/profit for the period | (18) | (38) | (56) | 11 | 1 | 12 | ||||||
(Loss)/earnings per share: | ||||||||||||
Basic and diluted (loss)/earnings per share | (0.10) | 0.02 | ||||||||||
Unaudited Consolidated Condensed Income Statement for the year ended December 31, 2023 and 2022 | ||||||||||||
Year ended December 31, 2023 | Year ended December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||
Before | Exceptional | Total | Before | Exceptional | Total | |||||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | |||||||
Revenue | 4,812 | — | 4,812 | 4,689 | — | 4,689 | ||||||
Cost of sales | (4,246) | (92) | (4,338) | (4,096) | (67) | (4,163) | ||||||
Gross profit | 566 | (92) | 474 | 593 | (67) | 526 | ||||||
Sales, general and administration expenses | (241) | (14) | (255) | (189) | (23) | (212) | ||||||
Intangible amortization | (143) | — | (143) | (138) | — | (138) | ||||||
Operating profit | 182 | (106) | 76 | 266 | (90) | 176 | ||||||
Net finance (expense)/income | (205) | 58 | (147) | (138) | 218 | 80 | ||||||
(Loss)/profit before tax | (23) | (48) | (71) | 128 | 128 | 256 | ||||||
Income tax credit/(charge) | 7 | 14 | 21 | (36) | 17 | (19) | ||||||
(Loss)/profit for the year | (16) | (34) | (50) | 92 | 145 | 237 | ||||||
(Loss)/earnings per share: | ||||||||||||
Basic and diluted (loss)/earnings per share | (0.12) | 0.38 |
Unaudited Consolidated Condensed Statement of Financial Position | |||
At December 31, 2023 | At December 31, 2022 | ||
$'m | $'m | ||
Non-current assets | |||
Intangible assets | 1,382 | 1,473 | |
Property, plant and equipment | 2,628 | 2,390 | |
Other non-current assets | 154 | 94 | |
4,164 | 3,957 | ||
Current assets | |||
Inventories | 469 | 567 | |
Trade and other receivables | 322 | 509 | |
Contract assets | 259 | 239 | |
Derivative financial instruments | 12 | 38 | |
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 443 | 555 | |
1,505 | 1,908 | ||
TOTAL ASSETS | 5,669 | 5,865 | |
TOTAL EQUITY | 106 | 455 | |
Non-current liabilities | |||
Borrowings including lease obligations | 3,640 | 3,524 | |
Other non-current liabilities* | 401 | 422 | |
4,041 | 3,946 | ||
Current liabilities | |||
Borrowings including lease obligations | 94 | 68 | |
Payables and other current liabilities | 1,428 | 1,396 | |
1,522 | 1,464 | ||
TOTAL LIABILITIES | 5,563 | 5,410 | |
TOTAL EQUITY and LIABILITIES | 5,669 | 5,865 |
* Other non-current liabilities include liabilities for earnout shares of |
Unaudited Consolidated Condensed Statement of Cash Flows | ||||||||
Three months ended, | Year ended, | |||||||
December 31, | December 31, | |||||||
2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | |||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | |||||
Cash flows from operating activities | ||||||||
Cash generated from operations (2) | 525 | 382 | 814 | 322 | ||||
Net interest paid | (78) | (68) | (174) | (123) | ||||
Settlement of foreign currency derivative financial instruments | (1) | (25) | (10) | 41 | ||||
Income tax received/(paid) | (8) | (6) | (14) | (35) | ||||
Cash flows from operating activities | 438 | 283 | 616 | 205 | ||||
Cash flows used in investing activities | ||||||||
Capital expenditure | (74) | (182) | (378) | (595) | ||||
Cash flows used in investing activities | (74) | (182) | (378) | (595) | ||||
Cash flows (used in)/received from financing activities | ||||||||
Changes in borrowings | 3 | 7 | (4) | 599 | ||||
Lease payments | (23) | (19) | (78) | (59) | ||||
Dividends paid | (66) | (130) | (263) | (251) | ||||
Deferred debt issue costs paid | (1) | (1) | (3) | (11) | ||||
Proceeds from share issuance, net of costs | — | (1) | — | 257 | ||||
Treasury shares purchased | — | — | — | (35) | ||||
Other financing activities | — | — | — | (1) | ||||
Cash flows (used in)/received from financing activities | (87) | (144) | (348) | 499 | ||||
Net increase/(decrease) in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 277 | (43) | (110) | 109 | ||||
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at beginning of period | 154 | 583 | 555 | 463 | ||||
Foreign exchange gains/(losses) on cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | 12 | 15 | (2) | (17) | ||||
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at end of period | 443 | 555 | 443 | 555 |
Financial assets and liabilities At December 31, 2023, the Group's net debt and available liquidity was as follows: | ||||
Drawn amount | Available liquidity | |||
$'m | $'m | |||
Senior Secured Green and Senior Green Notes | 3,300 | — | ||
Global Asset Based Loan Facility | — | 369 | ||
Lease obligations | 408 | — | ||
Other borrowings | 54 | — | ||
Total borrowings / undrawn facilities | 3,762 | 369 | ||
Deferred debt issue costs | (28) | — | ||
Net borrowings / undrawn facilities | 3,734 | 369 | ||
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash | (443) | 443 | ||
Derivative financial instruments used to hedge foreign currency and interest rate risk | 21 | — | ||
Net debt / available liquidity | 3,312 | 812 |
Reconciliation of (loss)/profit for the period to Adjusted profit | |||
Three months ended December 31, | |||
2023 | 2022 | ||
$'m | $'m | ||
(Loss)/profit for the period | (56) | 12 | |
Less: Dividend on preferred shares | (6) | (5) | |
(Loss)/profit for the period used in calculating earnings per share | (62) | 7 | |
Exceptional items, net of tax | 38 | (1) | |
Intangible amortization, net of tax | 29 | 25 | |
Adjusted profit for the period | 5 | 31 | |
Weighted average number of ordinary shares | 597.6 | 597.6 | |
(Loss)/earnings per share | (0.10) | 0.02 | |
Adjusted earnings per share | 0.01 | 0.05 |
Reconciliation of (loss)/profit for the period to Adjusted EBITDA | |||||||
Three months ended | Year ended | ||||||
December 31, | December 31, | ||||||
2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | ||||
(Loss)/profit for the period | (56) | 12 | (50) | 237 | |||
Income tax (credit)/charge | (10) | (1) | (21) | 19 | |||
Net finance expense/(income) | 57 | 24 | 147 | (80) | |||
Depreciation and amortization | 117 | 98 | 418 | 359 | |||
Exceptional operating items | 40 | 26 | 106 | 90 | |||
Adjusted EBITDA | 148 | 159 | 600 | 625 |
Reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Adjusted operating cash flow and Adjusted free cash flow | |||||||
Three months ended | Year ended | ||||||
December 31, | December 31, | ||||||
2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
$'m | $'m | $'m | $'m | ||||
Adjusted EBITDA | 148 | 159 | 600 | 625 | |||
Movement in working capital | 392 | 243 | 270 | (202) | |||
Maintenance capital expenditure | (22) | (35) | (112) | (109) | |||
Lease payments | (23) | (19) | (78) | (59) | |||
Adjusted operating cash flow | 495 | 348 | 680 | 255 | |||
Net interest paid | (78) | (68) | (174) | (123) | |||
Settlement of foreign currency derivative financial instruments | (1) | (25) | (10) | 41 | |||
Income tax paid | (8) | (6) | (14) | (35) | |||
Adjusted free cash flow - pre Growth Investment capital expenditure | 408 | 249 | 482 | 138 | |||
Growth investment capital expenditure | (52) | (147) | (266) | (486) | |||
Adjusted free cash flow - post Growth Investment capital expenditure | 356 | 102 | 216 | (348) |
Related Footnotes
(1) For a reconciliation to the most comparable IFRS measures, see Page 10.
(2) Cash from operations for the three months ended December 31, 2023 is derived from the aggregate of Adjusted EBITDA as presented on Page 10 less working capital inflows of
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SOURCE Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
FAQ
What was the revenue change for Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) in Q4 2023?
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Which market showed challenges for Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) in 2023?