Ecommerce Shakes up the Top Five Retailers in the US: New Report by Edge by Ascential

Rhea-AI Summary

Edge by Ascential's 2022 United States Retail Landscape report reveals that Amazon's GMV sales in the US could hit nearly $700 billion by 2026, overtaking Walmart as the largest retailer by 2024. Total US ecommerce sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion by the end of 2022, with a market share increase for Amazon from 13.2% in 2021 to 14.9% in 2026. Meanwhile, Walmart's share is expected to decrease to 12.7%. Online grocery sales are anticipated to rise significantly, adding $34.7 billion by 2026.

Positive

• Amazon's GMV sales in the US expected to reach $700 billion by 2026.
• Ecommerce projected to surpass $1 trillion in the US by year-end 2022.
• Amazon to become the largest US retailer by 2024 with a market share of 14.9%.
• Significant growth in online grocery sales expected, adding $34.7 billion by 2026.

Negative

• Walmart's market share forecast to drop from 13.2% in 2021 to 12.7% by 2026.
• Inflationary pressures affecting retailer margins and supplier costs.

• Amazon’s gross merchandise value (GMV) sales in the US are expected to reach almost $700 billion ($693 billion) by 2026, up from $399 billion in 2021
• Walmart's US market share is expected to decrease from 13.2% in 2021 to 12.7% in 2026
• US third party (3P) sales on Amazon are expected to increase from 60% in 2021 to 67% in 2026
• In 2021, online edible grocery sales in the US reached $54.8 billion, up 117% on 2019

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Edge by Ascential, whose technology-driven products power brands to win in digital commerce, today released its annual 2022 United States Retail Landscape and Go-to-Market Planning Report, which shows that ecommerce will continue to be the largest driver of retail growth in the US. The report predicts that Amazon will overtake Walmart to become the largest retailer in the US by 2024, and add more than $294 billion in US sales between 2021 and 2026. By 2026, Edge by Ascential predicts that the top three retailers in the US will be Amazon, Walmart and Costco, with 14.9%, 12.7% and 4.4% of the retailer market share, respectively.

“Inflationary pressures continue to cut into retailer margins, both in the US and abroad, while rising labor rates, increased material costs and higher fuel prices across all supply chains impact suppliers, retailers and consumers,” said Deren Baker, CEO, Edge by Ascential. “Despite these challenges, data from Edge by Ascential shows that ecommerce will continue to be the largest driver of retail growth over the next few years in the US and worldwide. Amazon has always taken advantage of its head start as a digital-first platform and has been a pioneer of almost all the growth levers associated with platform-based retail from ‘subscribe and save’ through Prime membership to the evolving media and marketing services Amazon offers to brands. Therefore, it’s not a huge surprise that by gross merchandise value (GMV) sales, our AI-powered forecasting software on Edge Retail Insight anticipates Amazon to overtake Walmart as the largest retailer in the US by 2024.”

Some key findings from the Report include:

• Ecommerce is the #1 driver of retail growth in the US - and will top $1 trillion by the end of 2022
  • In 2021, US online sales reached $907.7 billion, up from $787 billion in 2020 - representing 15.2% growth.
  • This was 2 x the growth of overall US retail sales, which grew by 7.6% in 2021.
  • We anticipate ecommerce will account for 30.5% of total retail sales by 2026, up from 24.6% in 2021 and will be the world’s biggest ecommerce market after China.

• Amazon will overtake Walmart to become the largest retailer in the US by 2024; Costco will also grow its share
  • By 2026, Amazon is expected to hold almost 15% (14.9%) of retail market share in the US. Walmart’s share will shrink to 12.7%, from 13.2% in 2021.
  • Costco will become the third-largest retailer in the US, and will increase its market share from 3.8% in 2021 to 4.4% by 2026.
  • Home Depot will become the 4th largest retailer in the US, with a market share increase from 3.7% in 2021 to 3.9% by 2026.

• Online grocery sales will add $34.7 billion in US sales between 2021-2026
  • In 2021, online edible grocery sales in the US reached $54.8 billion, up 117% on 2019
  • As of 2021, online edible grocery penetration in the US stood at 6.5% - with about 50% of that attributed to Walmart, Target, Kroger and Costco, all of which accelerated their edible grocery ecommerce presence and capability during the pandemic years.
  • Edge by Ascential forecasts online edible grocery share to make up 8.8% of all ecommerce sales by 2026.

Methodology:

• Data and insights come from the Edge by Ascential 2022 United States Retail Landscape and Go-to-Market Planning Report, available to subscribers of our market-leading data, analytics and curated content platform Edge Retail Insight.
• The report was created with data from Edge by Ascential’s proprietary analytics tool, Retail Market Monitor, which can analyze the whole retail ecosystem by sector, geography, channel and chain retailer and identify growth opportunities for retailers and brands.
• Retail sales referenced are calculated using Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), a standard used to measure the size of a third-party marketplace. It is calculated by multiplying the number of products sold by the price at which each product was sold over a given time period.
• Retail sales data includes online and offline operations, and only includes chain retailers, of which Edge Retail Insight covers almost 2,500 worldwide.
• Edible grocery refers to ambient, chilled, fresh and frozen food, soft drinks and alcohol.

About Edge by Ascential:

Edge by Ascential helps global and local brands to win in digital commerce in a new and complex era of omnichannel retail. Our unique combination of industry-leading data, analytics, market research and expert consulting solutions inform the ecommerce-driven go-to-market strategy, optimization and performance measurement of the world’s largest brands. A subsidiary of Ascential plc, we support our clients to always make the right investment decisions, drive margin growth and achieve the necessary edge to grow. More than 400 global brands depend upon our weekly, daily and real-time data-driven insights. Edge by Ascential has Verified Partner status on Amazon Ads.

About Ascential

Ascential delivers specialist information, analytics and ecommerce optimization platforms to the world's leading consumer brands and their ecosystems. Our world-class businesses improve performance and solve problems for our customers by delivering immediately actionable information combined with visionary longer-term thinking across Digital Commerce, Product Design and Marketing. We also serve customers across Retail and Financial Services.

With more than 2,800 employees across five continents, we combine local expertise with a global footprint for clients in over 120 countries. Ascential is listed on the London Stock Exchange.

For more information, visit www.ascentialedge.com.

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Source: Edge by Ascential

FAQ

What is the projected GMV sales for Amazon in the US by 2026?

Amazon's gross merchandise value sales in the US are expected to reach nearly $700 billion by 2026.

When is Amazon predicted to become the largest retailer in the US?

Amazon is expected to overtake Walmart to become the largest retailer in the US by 2024.

What will be Walmart's market share by 2026?

Walmart's market share is projected to decrease to 12.7% by 2026.

How much are online grocery sales expected to grow by 2026?

Online grocery sales are anticipated to increase by $34.7 billion between 2021 and 2026.

What is the ecommerce growth forecast for the US in 2022?

Ecommerce is projected to top $1 trillion in sales in the US by the end of 2022.