In Conversation: Unveiling the Science Behind Contrail Avoidance
Marc Shapiro, Director of Breakthrough Energy's Contrails team, discusses the science behind contrail avoidance strategies and their impact on aviation's climate effects. He explains that while CO2 has a weak, long-term warming effect, contrails have a strong, short-term impact, with persistent nighttime contrails being the most significant. Predicting contrail formation involves using physics, meteorology, and observational techniques.
Shapiro highlights challenges in predicting ice supersaturation conditions and the need for fine-scale atmospheric modeling. The team's model predicts contrail formation probability and severity. While contrail avoidance might increase CO2 emissions, models suggest only a few flights would be affected, resulting in a net climate benefit. American Airlines' (AAL) role in conducting trials is important for advancing research and validating the model.
Marc Shapiro, direttore del team Contrails di Breakthrough Energy, discute la scienza dietro le strategie di evitamento delle scie di condensazione e il loro impatto sugli effetti climatici dell'aviazione. Spiega che mentre il CO2 ha un debole effetto di riscaldamento a lungo termine, le scie di condensazione hanno un forte impatto a breve termine, con le scie notturne persistenti che risultano essere le più significative. Prevedere la formazione delle scie di condensazione implica l'uso di fisica, meteorologia e tecniche osservazionali.
Shapiro mette in evidenza le sfide nella previsione delle condizioni di sovrasaturazione di ghiaccio e la necessità di una modellizzazione atmosferica a scala fine. Il modello del team prevede la probabilità e la gravità della formazione delle scie di condensazione. Anche se l'evitamento delle scie potrebbe aumentare le emissioni di CO2, i modelli suggeriscono che solo alcuni voli sarebbero interessati, portando a un beneficio climatico netto. Il ruolo di American Airlines (AAL) nella conduzione di esperimenti è importante per avanzare nella ricerca e convalidare il modello.
Marc Shapiro, director del equipo Contrails de Breakthrough Energy, discute la ciencia detrás de las estrategias de evitación de estelas de condensación y su impacto en los efectos climáticos de la aviación. Explica que, aunque el CO2 tiene un débil efecto de calentamiento a largo plazo, las estelas de condensación tienen un fuerte impacto a corto plazo, siendo las estelas persistentes durante la noche las más significativas. Predecir la formación de estelas implica el uso de física, meteorología y técnicas de observación.
Shapiro resalta los desafíos en la predicción de las condiciones de sobresaturación de hielo y la necesidad de un modelado atmosférico a escala fina. El modelo del equipo predice la probabilidad y la gravedad de la formación de estelas. Si bien evitar las estelas podría aumentar las emisiones de CO2, los modelos sugieren que solo unos pocos vuelos estarían afectados, resultando en un beneficio climático neto. El papel de American Airlines (AAL) en la realización de ensayos es importante para avanzar en la investigación y validar el modelo.
Marc Shapiro, Breakthrough Energy의 Contrails 팀 책임자는 응축 기체 회피 전략의 과학과 항공의 기후 효과에 미치는 영향에 대해 논의합니다. 그는 CO2는 약하고 장기적인 온난화 효과를 가지지만, 응축 기체는 강하고 단기적인 영향을 미치며, 지속적인 야간 응축 기체가 가장 중요한 것을 설명합니다. 응축 기체 형성을 예측하기 위해 물리학, 기상학 및 관찰 기술을 사용해야 합니다.
Shapiro는 얼음 과포화 조건 예측의 어려움과 세밀한 대기 모델링의 필요성을 강조합니다. 팀의 모델은 응축 기체 형성 확률과 심각성을 예측합니다. 응축 기체 회피가 CO2 배출을 증가시킬 수 있지만, 모델들은 영향받는 항공편이 몇 개에 불과해 순 기후 이득을 가져올 것이라고 제시합니다. American Airlines (AAL)의 실험 수행 역할은 연구를 발전시키고 모델을 검증하는 데 중요합니다.
Marc Shapiro, directeur de l'équipe Contrails de Breakthrough Energy, discute de la science derrière les stratégies d'évitement des traînées de condensation et de leur impact sur les effets climatiques de l'aviation. Il explique que bien que le CO2 ait un faible effet de réchauffement à long terme, les traînées de condensation ont un fort impact à court terme, les traînées de nuit persistantes étant les plus significatives. Prédire la formation des traînées de condensation nécessite l'utilisation de la physique, de la météorologie et des techniques d'observation.
Shapiro souligne les défis de la prédiction des conditions de sursaturation en glace et la nécessité d'une modélisation atmosphérique à échelle fine. Le modèle de l'équipe prédit la probabilité et la gravité de la formation des traînées de condensation. Bien que l'évitement des traînées puisse augmenter les émissions de CO2, les modèles suggèrent que seuls quelques vols seraient affectés, résultant en un bénéfice climatique net. Le rôle de American Airlines (AAL) dans la réalisation d'essais est important pour faire avancer la recherche et valider le modèle.
Marc Shapiro, Direktor des Contrails-Teams von Breakthrough Energy, diskutiert die Wissenschaft hinter den Strategien zur Vermeidung von Kondensstreifen und deren Auswirkungen auf die klimaeffekte der Luftfahrt. Er erklärt, dass CO2 einen schwachen, langfristigen Erwärmungseffekt hat, während Kondensstreifen einen starken, kurzfristigen Einfluss haben, wobei persistente Nachtkondensstreifen die bedeutendsten sind. Die Vorhersage der Kondensstreifenbildung umfasst den Einsatz von Physik, Meteorologie und Beobachtungstechniken.
Shapiro hebt die Herausforderungen bei der Vorhersage von Eisübersättigungsbedingungen und die Notwendigkeit einer feinzügigen atmosphärischen Modellierung hervor. Das Modell des Teams sagt die Wahrscheinlichkeit und Schwere der Kondensstreifenbildung voraus. Während die Vermeidung von Kondensstreifen die CO2-Emissionen erhöhen könnte, zeigen Modelle, dass nur wenige Flüge betroffen wären, was zu einem Netto-Klima-vorteil führt. Die Rolle von American Airlines (AAL) bei der Durchführung von Versuchen ist wichtig, um die Forschung voranzutreiben und das Modell zu validieren.
- American Airlines (AAL) is actively participating in contrail avoidance research trials, demonstrating environmental leadership
- The contrail avoidance model suggests only a few flights would be affected, potentially minimizing operational disruptions
- Contrail avoidance strategies could result in a net climate benefit even over 100 years, despite potential increases in CO2 emissions
- Implementing contrail avoidance strategies may lead to increased fuel consumption and CO2 emissions
- There is currently no mechanism to share the increased operational costs associated with contrail avoidance
Marc Shapiro from Breakthrough Energy Discusses the Impact, Challenges, and American Airlines' Role in Mitigating Aviation's Climate Effects
Originally published in American Airlines' 2023 Sustainability Report
NORTHAMPTON, MA / ACCESSWIRE / September 4, 2024 / Marc Shapiro is the Director of the Breakthrough Energy Contrails team, one of American's partners on contrail avoidance. Below, he answers our questions on the science behind contrail avoidance strategies, as well as some of the challenges in their implementation.
Prior to joining Breakthrough Energy, Marc worked as an applied scientist and entrepreneur in a diverse set of research and development efforts across fluid mechanics, geospatial analytics and mobile healthcare. In 2020, he started a company to develop geospatial data systems for climate mitigation and adaptation before transitioning to his current work. Marc earned a Master of Science degree in Fluids and Thermal Sciences from Brown University and a Bachelor of Engineering from Dartmouth College.
Marc, how would you compare the warming impact of contrails versus CO2 ?
It's hard to compare them precisely, but CO2 is weakly warming over a long period of time, while contrails are strongly warming over a short period. But not all contrails have the same warming effect. Persistent contrails at night clearly impact the climate the most. By being more precise in our interventions and focusing on those, we have the greatest opportunity to make a difference.
How can we predict where warming contrails will occur?
There are fundamentally two ways to go about this. One involves using physics and meteorology to predict regions or volumes of air that should be avoided. The other uses observational techniques on the ground and from satellites to see where aircraft are actually forming contrails. In our work towards solving this problem, we need both.
What are the scientific challenges?
The type of atmospheric condition that creates persistent contrails is called ice supersaturation, which is a fancy way of saying the temperature is really cold and the humidity is high. Predicting that state is something that models have a hard time doing today. Another challenge is predicting these atmospheric states on as fine a scale as you need. Weather forecasts generally correspond to a grid, say, 25 kilometers by 25 kilometers. In that grid, you might have multiple fluctuations of supersaturation states. So, the model resolves to the average and it's wrong sometimes.
Is there an easy way to describe your model?
Think of it like a weather forecast. We predict the probability that a contrail will form and an estimate of that contrail's severity. The first part indicates how likely it is that an aircraft will form a persistent contrail in a particular area. The second part tells us that if we found a contrail in that area, it would likely have a particular persistence and impact on the climate.
Avoiding a contrail might also result in greater CO2 emissions. How should we look at the trade-off?
There is a cost in added fuel and CO2 that potentially gets added to the atmosphere as a result of avoidance maneuvers. Our models are telling us, though, only a few flights will be affected, and avoidance still results in a net climate benefit even over 100 years. We could reduce these added emissions if airlines had access to SAF. But from an operating standpoint, there's a cost to the airline business in terms of greater fuel use, and no mechanism exists to share that cost right now.
How do you see American's role in helping advance the solution?
The airlines are essentially on the front line of solving this problem because you are the ones that would implement the solution. So, what American is doing in helping us run trials is truly critical to advancing the research. The biggest hurdle to get through right now is not model development. It's having the chance to really test and validate the model. Additionally, having a major airline working on this issue is a valuable signal that it's important.
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FAQ
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