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Buffalo thunders back as Zillow's hottest market for 2025

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Buffalo, New York, maintains its position as the hottest housing market for 2025, according to Zillow's latest analysis. The ranking considers factors including home value growth forecasts, sales velocity, job growth per new home permitted, and expected growth in owner-occupied households.

Key factors driving Buffalo's top position include having the highest ratio of new jobs per new home permitted and relatively affordable housing prices. Hartford leads home value appreciation forecasts at 4.2% for 2025, while other top markets include Providence, Indianapolis, and Charlotte.

The analysis reveals a geographic shift in hot markets, spreading from the Northeast, Great Lakes, and South regions into the Midwest and West. Virginia Beach showed the most significant improvement, jumping 23 spots to #13. Notable trends include relative affordability driving demand in Midwest metros and slower but steady price growth expectations for 2025.

Buffalo, New York si conferma come il mercato immobiliare più caldo per il 2025, secondo l'ultima analisi di Zillow. Il ranking tiene conto di fattori come le previsioni di crescita del valore delle abitazioni, la velocità di vendita, la crescita occupazionale per ogni nuova abitazione permessa e la crescente percentuale di case occupate dai proprietari.

I fattori chiave che spingono Buffalo a occupare la prima posizione includono il rapporto più alto di nuovi posti di lavoro per nuova abitazione permessa e prezzi relativamente accessibili. Hartford guida le previsioni di apprezzamento del valore delle abitazioni con un incremento del 4,2% per il 2025, mentre altri mercati di punta includono Providence, Indianapolis e Charlotte.

L'analisi rivela un cambiamento geografico nei mercati caldi, che si sta espandendo dal Nord-Est, dai Grandi Laghi e dalle regioni meridionali verso il Midwest e l'Ovest. Virginia Beach ha mostrato il miglioramento più significativo, salendo di 23 posizioni fino al #13. Tra le tendenze notevoli c'è l'accessibilità relativa che guida la domanda nelle città del Midwest e previsioni di crescita dei prezzi più lente ma costanti per il 2025.

Buffalo, Nueva York mantiene su posición como el mercado inmobiliario más caliente para 2025, según el último análisis de Zillow. El ranking considera factores como las previsiones de crecimiento del valor de la vivienda, la velocidad de ventas, el crecimiento del empleo por cada nueva vivienda permitida y el crecimiento esperado de los hogares ocupados por propietarios.

Los principales factores que impulsan la posición de Buffalo incluyen tener la mayor ratio de nuevos empleos por cada nueva vivienda permitida y precios de vivienda relativamente asequibles. Hartford lidera las previsiones de apreciación del valor de la vivienda al 4.2% para 2025, mientras que otros mercados destacados incluyen a Providence, Indianápolis y Charlotte.

El análisis revela un cambio geográfico en los mercados calientes, extendiéndose desde el Noreste, los Grandes Lagos y las regiones del Sur hacia el Medio Oeste y el Oeste. Virginia Beach mostró la mejora más significativa, saltando 23 puestos hasta el #13. Las tendencias notables incluyen la accesibilidad relativa que impulsa la demanda en las ciudades del Medio Oeste y expectativas de crecimiento de precios más lentas pero constantes para 2025.

버팔로, 뉴욕Zillow의 최신 분석에 따르면 2025년 가장 뜨거운 주택 시장으로 자리잡고 있습니다. 이 순위는 주택 가치 성장 예측, 판매 속도, 허가된 새 주택당 일자리 성장 및 주택 소유 증가율과 같은 요소를 고려합니다.

버팔로가 최고의 자리에 오른 주요 요인은 허가된 새 주택당 신규 일자리 비율이 가장 높고 상대적으로 저렴한 주택 가격입니다. 하트포드가 2025년 주택 가치 상승률 예측에서 4.2%로 1위를 차지하였으며, 다른 주요 시장으로는 프로비던스, 인디애나폴리스, 샬럿이 있습니다.

이 분석은 열기 있는 시장의 지리적 변화가 나타나고 있으며, 이는 북동부, 대호수 및 남부 지역에서 중서부 및 서부로 확산되고 있음을 보여줍니다. 버지니아 비치는 23단계 상승하여 #13에 올랐습니다. 주목할 만한 트렌드는 상대적인 접근성이 중서부 도시에서 수요를 자극하고 있으며, 2025년 동안 느리지만 지속적인 가격 성장 기대가 있다는 것입니다.

Buffalo, New York maintient sa position en tant que marché immobilier le plus dynamique pour 2025, selon la dernière analyse de Zillow. Le classement prend en compte des facteurs tels que les prévisions de croissance de la valeur des logements, la vitesse des ventes, la croissance de l'emploi par nouvelle maison autorisée et la croissance attendue des ménages occupés par des propriétaires.

Les facteurs clés qui poussent Buffalo à la première place incluent le ratio le plus élevé de nouveaux emplois par nouvelle maison autorisée et des prix de l'immobilier relativement abordables. Hartford mène les prévisions d'appréciation de la valeur des maisons avec 4,2 % pour 2025, tandis que d'autres marchés de premier plan incluent Providence, Indianapolis et Charlotte.

L'analyse révèle un changement géographique dans les marchés chauds, s'étendant du Nord-Est, des Grands Lacs et du Sud vers le Midwest et l'Ouest. Virginia Beach a montré l'amélioration la plus significative, passant 23 places au rang #13. Les tendances notables incluent l'accessibilité relative qui stimule la demande dans les métropoles du Midwest et des attentes de croissance des prix plus lentes mais constantes pour 2025.

Buffalo, New York bleibt laut der neuesten Analyse von Zillow der heißeste Wohnungsmarkt für 2025. Das Ranking berücksichtigt Faktoren wie die Prognosen für das Wachstum der Immobilienwerte, die Verkaufsgeschwindigkeit, das Beschäftigungswachstum pro genehmigtem Neubau und das erwartete Wachstum der von Eigentümern bewohnten Haushalte.

Wichtige Faktoren, die Buffalos Spitzenposition antreiben, sind das höchste Verhältnis neuer Jobs pro genehmigtem Neubau und relativ erschwingliche Immobilienpreise. Hartford führt die Prognosen für die Wertsteigerung von Immobilien mit 4,2% für 2025 an, während andere führende Märkte Providence, Indianapolis und Charlotte umfassen.

Die Analyse zeigt eine geografische Verschiebung in heißen Märkten, die sich von den Nordosten, den Großen Seen und dem Süden in den Mittleren Westen und Westen ausbreitet. Virginia Beach hat den größten Verbesserungsschritt gemacht und ist um 23 Plätze auf Platz #13 gestiegen. Bedeutende Trends sind die relative Erschwinglichkeit, die die Nachfrage in den Metropolen des Mittleren Westens antreibt, sowie langsamere, aber stetige Preiswachstumsprognosen für 2025.

Positive
  • Buffalo maintains top position with strong job growth to new homes ratio
  • Hartford leads with 4.2% forecasted home value appreciation
  • Providence shows strong performance with 3.7% forecasted growth
  • Multiple markets show improved affordability compared to previous year
Negative
  • Home value growth expected to level out compared to 2021-2022 double-digit appreciation
  • Unpredictable mortgage rates could impact buyer qualification and affordability
  • Significant inventory shortages in many markets (up to -68.6% in Hartford vs 2018-2019)
  • Some markets showing negative growth forecasts (New Orleans -3.8%, San Francisco -1.7%)

Insights

This comprehensive market forecast reveals critical shifts in U.S. housing dynamics for 2025. Buffalo's unprecedented back-to-back dominance stems from a powerful combination of 2.8% projected home value growth and a remarkable 2.0 jobs-per-permit ratio, signaling intense demand pressure. The data shows a notable geographical redistribution of market heat, with affordable markets gaining momentum. Hartford leads value appreciation forecasts at 4.2%, while traditional powerhouses like San Francisco face projected declines of 1.7%. Most striking is the inventory deficit - Buffalo's 46.1% drop from 2018-2019 levels exemplifies the supply constraints driving competition. The broader market narrative suggests a moderation from the extreme appreciation of 2021-2022, transitioning to more sustainable growth patterns.

The report unveils important economic indicators shaping regional real estate dynamics. Employment growth outpacing construction permits in key markets signals significant wage pressure and potential inflation in housing costs. The jobs-to-permits ratio is particularly telling - Buffalo's 2.0 ratio indicates severe supply-demand imbalance. The geographical shift toward affordable Midwest markets (Indianapolis, St. Louis, Kansas City) represents a structural realignment of economic opportunities. Most notably, Virginia Beach's 23-position jump, driven by robust job growth, exemplifies how employment trends are reshaping market hierarchies. This data suggests a broader economic rebalancing away from traditional coastal powerhouses toward mid-tier cities with stronger fundamentals.

This forecast presents compelling investment implications for real estate markets in 2025. The concentration of growth in affordable markets suggests a strategic opportunity in secondary cities, particularly those with strong job creation metrics. Notable is the stark contrast in price points - San Jose at $1,588,186 versus Buffalo at $260,537, with both showing strong fundamentals but different risk profiles. The inventory deficit trend, particularly severe in Providence (-62%) and Hartford (-68.6%), indicates sustained pricing power for existing property owners. However, the projected cooling in traditionally hot markets like Austin (-0.4% growth) and San Francisco (-1.7%) signals a need for careful market selection in investment strategies.

Affordability and job growth are key drivers of competition 

  • Competition among buyers never cooled in Buffalo last year, and that heat should keep smoldering through 2025.
  • Hot markets spread from the Northeast, Great Lakes and South regions into the Midwest and West.
  • Virginia Beach jumped farthest up the list from 2024, leapfrogging over 23 markets.

SEATTLE, Jan. 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Buffalo, New York, will be the hottest major housing market in 2025, according to a new analysis by Zillow®, the first time a market has held the title in back-to-back years. Relative affordability and few homes for sale are common threads among what should be the most competitive markets for buyers this year. 

"Construction that keeps pace with an area's growth remains a crucial piece of keeping homes available and accessible. In chilly Buffalo, competition among buyers will remain hot, with employment growing far faster than builders are adding homes," said Skylar Olsen, Zillow chief economist. "Shoppers nationwide should see more options for sale than in recent years, along with slow and steady price growth. That's the good news. But both buyers and sellers should expect unpredictable mortgage rates."

This hotness ranking of the nation's 50 most populous metros takes into account Zillow's forecast for local home value growth and how quickly homes are selling. It also considers job growth per new home permitted and expected growth in owner-occupied households. 

Zillow forecast Buffalo to be the hottest market in 2024, and that prediction proved prescient. Sellers held a strong advantage in negotiations there throughout last year, according to Zillow's market heat index.

Buffalo has the most new jobs per new home permitted — a measure of expected demand. New jobs often mean new residents, which raises competition and drives up prices unless builders can match the additional demand.

Although affordability has improved slightly compared to last year, it's still top of mind for buyers. Lower-than-average home prices and rent costs in Buffalo as well as Midwest metros like Indianapolis, St. Louis and Kansas City have bolstered demand in these areas, helping push them to the top of the list. 

Relative affordability is a powerful force, too. Nearby alternatives to expensive Northeastern metros like New York and Boston dominated Zillow's list of the most popular cities among home shoppers in 2024. Metropolitan areas in the same vein — Providence, Hartford and Philadelphia — rank high on this list as well.

Hartford, Providence, Indianapolis and Charlotte are all among the top five in Zillow's forecast for home value appreciation in 2025. Hartford leads the pack with 4.2% expected growth. But home value growth is set to largely level out this year — even these standout metros look tame compared to the double-digit annual appreciation seen in 2021 and 2022. 

Rising fastest in the ranks from 2024's hottest markets list is Virginia Beach, which leapfrogged over 23 markets to the No. 13 spot this year, driven by job growth that has far outpaced new home permitting. Memphis fell the farthest by the same token, dropping 30 places, as new home permitting has eclipsed low job growth. 

After the entire western half of the country was shut out of last year's top 10, Salt Lake City nudged its way onto this year's list at No. 10. San Diego was the only other Western metro in the top 20, at No. 19. 

Mortgage rates are likely to continue on their bumpy path in 2025, and swings will have a major impact on which homes shoppers can afford or even qualify for. Zillow Home Loans' BuyAbilitySM tool tracks rates in real time to show users which homes fit their budget.

2025
Hottest
Markets
Rank

Metropolitan
Area

Change
in Rank
from
2024 

Zillow
Home
Value Index
(ZHVI) 2024

ZHVI
Year
over
Year
Growth,
2024

2025
Home
Value
Growth
Forecast

Jobs per
New
Home
Permitted

Change in
Inventory
Versus
2018–2019
Averages

1

Buffalo, NY

0

$260,537

5.7 %

2.8 %

2.0

-46.1 %

2

Indianapolis, IN

2

$275,639

3.6 %

3.4 %

0.5

-16.1 %

3

Providence, RI

2

$484,019

6.7 %

3.7 %

1.3

-62 %

4

Hartford, CT

15

$363,298

6.5 %

4.2 %

1.1

-68.6 %

5

Philadelphia, PA

6

$362,744

4.6 %

2.6 %

1.5

-46 %

6

St. Louis, MO

9

$250,141

4.2 %

1.9 %

1.3

-43.8 %

7

Charlotte, NC

0

$377,450

1.6 %

3.2 %

-0.5

17.5 %

8

Kansas City, MO

10

$299,118

3.8 %

2.7 %

0.2

-36 %

9

Richmond, VA

11

$368,957

4.1 %

2.9 %

-0.1

-43.3 %

10

Salt Lake City, UT

18

$543,324

2.8 %

2.3 %

0.5

-4.8 %

11

Cincinnati, OH

-9

$281,887

4.6 %

2.9 %

-0.2

-32.8 %

12

Columbus, OH

-9

$310,746

3.8 %

3.1 %

-0.8

-20.5 %

13

Virginia Beach, VA

23

$349,186

4.6 %

2.5 %

1.2

-42.6 %

14

Cleveland, OH

-6

$228,140

6.4 %

2.8 %

0.6

-52.6 %

15

Miami, FL

10

$486,056

1.0 %

3.5 %

1.0

-4.4 %

16

Boston, MA

10

$694,494

4.7 %

2.1 %

0.1

-45.8 %

17

Oklahoma City, OK

21

$230,466

2.5 %

2.4 %

0.7

-2.5 %

18

Detroit, MI

6

$248,126

4.8 %

1.7 %

0.1

-34.1 %

19

San Diego, CA

10

$939,174

3.8 %

2.5 %

-0.4

-32.9 %

20

Birmingham, AL

21

$247,509

0.7 %

1.3 %

0.4

-13.9 %

21

Raleigh, NC

-4

$441,066

1.1 %

1.7 %

-0.7

-13.5 %

22

Riverside, CA

12

$583,420

3 %

2.4 %

-0.3

-25. %

23

Orlando, FL

-14

$391,924

-0.3 %

2.2 %

-0.6

17 %

24

Atlanta, GA

-18

$379,262

0.3 %

2.6 %

-0.7

-3 %

25

Pittsburgh, PA

-9

$208,583

2.8 %

0.6 %

1.0

-32.3 %

26

Louisville, KY

-12

$255,206

4.7 %

1.9 %

-0.4

-27.1 %

27

Phoenix, AZ

8

$454,001

-0.3 %

1.7 %

-0.4

-7.9 %

28

Washington, DC

11

$567,825

4.4 %

0.8 %

-0.1

-38.8 %

29

Tampa, FL

-19

$372,170

-2.5 %

2.2 %

-0.6

7.3 %

30

Dallas, TX

-9

$368,683

-0.4 %

1.0 %

-0.4

1.5 %

31

Nashville, TN

2

$436,301

1.7 %

2.2 %

-0.8

-10.8 %

32

Seattle, WA

0

$735,683

5.1 %

1.9 %

-1.0

-23.5 %

33

Baltimore, MD

10

$386,001

3.6 %

0.8 %

-0.2

-46.9 %

34

Los Angeles, CA

-11

$949,057

4.6 %

1.7 %

-0.4

-26.1 %

35

Las Vegas, NV

-23

$428,725

5.1 %

1.1 %

0.2

-18.3 %

36

San Antonio, TX

13

$280,603

-1.8 %

0.3 %

0.2

22.7 %

37

Sacramento, CA

-10

$577,630

2.1 %

0.0 %

0.0

-29.9 %

38

Houston, TX

9

$306,191

0.6 %

0.6 %

-0.3

1 %

39

Chicago, IL

-17

$321,484

5.4 %

1.2 %

-0.5

-48.6 %

40

Jacksonville, FL

-9

$353,501

-0.9 %

1.9 %

-0.8

14.1 %

41

New York, NY

4

$677,368

6.4 %

1.3 %

0.3

-55.9 %

42

Milwaukee, WI

2

$343,920

5.3 %

2.4 %

-1.6

-27.1 %

43

Memphis, TN

-30

$233,885

1.1 %

2.3 %

-1.7

-1.2 %

44

Denver, CO

4

$579,604

0.8 %

0.1 %

-0.6

4.3 %

45

Minneapolis, MN

1

$368,562

2.5 %

0.2 %

-0.8

-26.7 %

46

Austin, TX

-6

$444,248

-3.2 %

-0.4 %

-0.6

33.7 %

47

Portland, OR

-10

$543,814

1.8 %

0.3 %

-1.3

-19.3 %

48

San Jose, CA

-6

$1,588,186

7.9 %

-0.2 %

-1.3

-34.8 %

49

San Francisco, CA

-19

$1,140,718

2.7 %

-1.7 %

-1.1

-3.5 %

50

New Orleans, LA

0

$235,657

-1.4 %

-3.8 %

-0.9

61.1 %

About Zillow Group:
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated partners and agents, and easier buying, selling, financing, and renting experiences. 

Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Zillow Rentals®, Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce®, and Follow Up Boss®. 

All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2025 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.

(ZFIN)

 

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SOURCE Zillow

FAQ

What is Zillow's hottest housing market prediction for 2025?

Buffalo, New York, is predicted to be Zillow's hottest housing market in 2025, maintaining its position from 2024.

Which city has the highest forecasted home value appreciation for 2025?

Hartford, Connecticut, leads with a forecasted home value appreciation of 4.2% for 2025.

How did Virginia Beach perform in Zillow's 2025 market rankings?

Virginia Beach showed the most improvement, jumping 23 positions to reach #13 in the 2025 rankings, driven by strong job growth relative to new home permits.

What are the top 5 hottest housing markets for 2025 according to Zillow?

The top 5 hottest markets are: 1. Buffalo, NY 2. Indianapolis, IN 3. Providence, RI 4. Hartford, CT 5. Philadelphia, PA.

What factors influenced Zillow's 2025 market rankings?

The rankings considered local home value growth forecasts, sales velocity, job growth per new home permitted, and expected growth in owner-occupied households.

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