A 'silver tsunami' won't solve housing affordability challenges
A new Zillow research challenges the notion that a 'silver tsunami' of empty-nest homes could solve the nation's housing shortage. While there are 20.9 million empty-nest households nationwide, these homes are predominantly located in more affordable markets rather than expensive coastal areas where housing demand is highest.
The study reveals that cities like Pittsburgh (22%), Buffalo (20%), and Cleveland (20%) have the highest share of empty-nest households. Conversely, high-demand metros like San Jose (35%), Austin (32%), and Denver (32%) have the largest share of young residents but fewer empty-nest homes. This geographical mismatch suggests that the 'silver tsunami' would have minimal impact on addressing housing affordability in high-demand areas.
Una nuova ricerca di Zillow sfida l'idea che uno 'tsunami d'argento' di case per vuoti-nido possa risolvere la carenza abitativa nel paese. Sebbene ci siano 20,9 milioni di famiglie vuote-nido in tutto il paese, queste abitazioni si trovano principalmente in mercati più accessibili piuttosto che nelle costose aree costiere dove la domanda abitativa è più alta.
Lo studio rivela che città come Pittsburgh (22%), Buffalo (20%) e Cleveland (20%) hanno la percentuale più alta di famiglie vuote-nido. Al contrario, le aree metropolitane ad alta domanda come San Jose (35%), Austin (32%) e Denver (32%) hanno la maggior percentuale di giovani residenti, ma meno case vuote-nido. Questo mismatch geografico suggerisce che lo 'tsunami d'argento' avrebbe un impatto minimo nell'affrontare l'accessibilità abitativa nelle aree ad alta domanda.
Una nueva investigación de Zillow desafía la noción de que un 'tsunami plateado' de casas vacías podría resolver la escasez de vivienda en el país. Si bien hay 20.9 millones de hogares vacíos en todo el país, estas viviendas están predominantemente ubicadas en mercados más asequibles en lugar de en las costosas áreas costeras donde la demanda de vivienda es más alta.
El estudio revela que ciudades como Pittsburgh (22%), Buffalo (20%) y Cleveland (20%) tienen la mayor proporción de hogares vacíos. En cambio, las áreas metropolitanas de alta demanda como San José (35%), Austin (32%) y Denver (32%) tienen la mayor proporción de residentes jóvenes, pero menos casas vacías. Este desajuste geográfico sugiere que el 'tsunami plateado' tendría un impacto mínimo en la accesibilidad de la vivienda en áreas de alta demanda.
새로운 질로우 연구는 '실버 쓰나미'로 알려진 빈 둥지 집들이 국가의 주택 부족 문제를 해결할 수 있다는 개념에 도전합니다. 전국적으로 2090만 가구의 빈 둥지 가구가 있지만, 이러한 집들은 주로 비싼 해안 지역이 아니라 더 저렴한 시장에 위치해 있습니다.
연구에 따르면, 피츠버그 (22%), 버팔로 (20%), 클리블랜드 (20%)와 같은 도시가 빈 둥지 가구의 비율이 가장 높습니다. 반면, 샌호세 (35%), 오스틴 (32%), 덴버 (32%)와 같은 높은 수요의 대도시는 젊은 거주자의 비율은 높지만 빈 둥지 가구는 적습니다. 이러한 지리적 불일치는 '실버 쓰나미'가 높은 수요 지역에서 주택의 저렴한 가격 문제를 해결하는 데 미치는 영향이 최소화될 것임을 시사합니다.
Une nouvelle recherche de Zillow remet en question l'idée qu'un 'tsunami argenté' de maisons vides pourrait résoudre la pénurie de logements dans le pays. Bien qu'il y ait 20,9 millions de ménages vides à l'échelle nationale, ces maisons se trouvent principalement dans des marchés plus abordables plutôt que dans des zones côtières chères où la demande de logements est la plus forte.
L'étude révèle que des villes comme Pittsburgh (22%), Buffalo (20%) et Cleveland (20%) ont la plus grande part de ménages vides. En revanche, les métropoles à forte demande comme San Jose (35%), Austin (32%) et Denver (32%) comptent la plus grande part de jeunes résidents mais moins de maisons vides. Cette inadéquation géographique suggère que le 'tsunami argenté' aurait un impact minime sur l'accessibilité des logements dans les zones à forte demande.
Eine neue Untersuchung von Zillow stellt die Vorstellung in Frage, dass ein 'silberner Tsunami' von Leerstehenden Haushalten das Wohnungsproblem des Landes lösen könnte. Obwohl es landesweit 20,9 Millionen Leerstehende Haushalte gibt, befinden sich diese Häuser überwiegend in erschwinglicheren Märkten und nicht in teuren Küstengebieten, wo die Wohnungsnachfrage am höchsten ist.
Die Studie zeigt, dass Städte wie Pittsburgh (22%), Buffalo (20%) und Cleveland (20%) den höchsten Anteil an Leerstehenden Haushalten haben. Im Gegensatz dazu haben städtische Gebiete mit hoher Nachfrage wie San Jose (35%), Austin (32%) und Denver (32%) den größten Anteil an jungen Bewohnern, aber weniger Leerstehende Haushalte. Diese geographische Diskrepanz deutet darauf hin, dass der 'silberne Tsunami' nur einen minimalen Einfluss auf die Bezahlbarkeit von Wohnraum in Gebieten mit hoher Nachfrage haben würde.
- Large potential housing supply with 20.9 million empty-nest households nationwide
- High affordability in markets with most empty-nest homes (Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland)
- Geographical mismatch between empty-nest homes and high-demand areas
- impact on solving housing affordability in expensive coastal markets
- Housing shortages most severe in markets with land-use restrictions
Insights
Empty-nest households that could add to inventory aren't where they're needed most
- There is an oversupply of 12.8 million empty-nest homes.
- However, this potential supply is not located in the markets experiencing severe housing shortages.
Pittsburgh ,Buffalo ,Cleveland ,Detroit andNew Orleans have the largest share of empty nest homes.- The highest share of those homes are in
Las Vegas ,Austin ,Los Angeles andRiverside .
"Even if we did see a 'silver tsunami,' a look at the map tells me it wouldn't really move the needle in terms of solving our housing affordability crunch," said Orphe Divounguy, Zillow senior economist. "These empty-nest households are concentrated in more affordable markets, where housing is already more accessible — not in the expensive coastal job centers where young workers are moving and where more homes are most desperately needed."
In 2022, there were roughly 20.9 million empty-nest households nationwide — residents ages 55 or older who have lived in the same home for 10 or more years, have no children at home and have at least two extra bedrooms. That's compared to the 8.1 million families living with nonrelatives in 2022 that were likely in need of their own place. But the supply and the demand don't match up on the map.
Empty-nest households are not where most young workers choose to live
Empty-nest households tend to be in markets that are less expensive. Among the 50 largest
On the other hand, metros with some of the largest shares of millennials and Gen Zers moving in are among the nation's most expensive. Markets where the largest share of recently moved households with members 44 and younger are
As a result, the impact of a future increase in supply coming from the existing housing stock owned by older individuals would likely have a smaller impact on affordability in expensive, high-demand coastal markets.
Rather, the primary fix for affordability challenges remains a strong supply expansion coming from newly built homes. Zillow research shows that housing shortages were the most severe in markets with more land-use restrictions. Along with promoting denser construction, removing barriers to homeownership that aren't related to monthly income — such as credit assistance programs, down payment assistance or help with closing costs — would likely improve access to homeownership.
Metro Area* | Zillow Home | Empty | Under-44 | Recent Under- | Share of Listings |
16 % | 35 % | 25 % | 27 % | ||
12 % | 33 % | 23 % | 11 % | ||
11 % | 35 % | 24 % | 2 % | ||
15 % | 36 % | 26 % | 43 % | ||
12 % | 42 % | 28 % | 28 % | ||
12 % | 41 % | 29 % | 40 % | ||
14 % | 38 % | 29 % | 44 % | ||
18 % | 35 % | 23 % | 51 % | ||
12 % | 30 % | 27 % | 24 % | ||
14 % | 38 % | 25 % | 46 % | ||
14 % | 35 % | 28 % | 12 % | ||
12 % | 38 % | 26 % | 24 % | ||
14 % | 36 % | 28 % | 14 % | ||
11 % | 35 % | 18 % | 13 % | ||
19 % | 32 % | 22 % | 61 % | ||
13 % | 43 % | 30 % | 17 % | ||
16 % | 39 % | 26 % | 51 % | ||
13 % | 39 % | 25 % | 4 % | ||
12 % | 32 % | 26 % | 26 % | ||
13 % | 43 % | 32 % | 23 % | ||
17 % | 35 % | 24 % | 56 % | ||
19 % | 36 % | 21 % | 64 % | ||
12 % | 38 % | 28 % | 22 % | ||
14 % | 38 % | 25 % | 33 % | ||
12 % | 41 % | 30 % | 33 % | ||
14 % | 38 % | 30 % | 18 % | ||
14 % | 35 % | 23 % | 11 % | ||
22 % | 32 % | 22 % | 72 % | ||
17 % | 37 % | 23 % | 53 % | ||
10 % | 48 % | 32 % | 26 % | ||
10 % | 37 % | 24 % | 19 % | ||
16 % | 38 % | 28 % | 51 % | ||
15 % | 41 % | 26 % | 45 % | ||
15 % | 41 % | 24 % | 59 % | ||
20 % | 33 % | 28 % | 57 % | ||
14 % | 38 % | 35 % | 7 % | ||
14 % | 42 % | 28 % | 19 % | ||
17 % | 39 % | 28 % | 44 % | ||
16 % | 32 % | 22 % | 15 % | ||
15 % | 37 % | 26 % | 40 % | ||
17 % | 37 % | 25 % | 46 % | ||
15 % | 42 % | 31 % | 43 % | ||
15 % | 39 % | 24 % | 40 % | ||
16 % | 37 % | 25 % | 48 % | ||
18 % | 36 % | 26 % | 43 % | ||
18 % | 35 % | 24 % | 48 % | ||
18 % | 34 % | 24 % | 37 % | ||
14 % | 45 % | 25 % | 23 % | ||
18 % | 33 % | 25 % | 42 % | ||
20 % | 33 % | 19 % | 64 % | ||
18 % | 36 % | 26 % | 55 % |
*Table ordered by market size
About Zillow Group:
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SOURCE Zillow
FAQ
What is the 'silver tsunami' in Zillow's housing market research?
Which cities have the highest percentage of empty-nest households according to Zillow (ZG)?
Where are young households (under 44) moving according to Zillow's 2024 data?
