Home sales poised to increase next year, if rates cooperate
Zillow's 2025 housing market forecast predicts a gradual increase in home sales from 4.06 million in 2024 to 4.16 million in 2025, contingent on declining mortgage rates. Home values are expected to grow by 2.2% over 2025, similar to the 2.3% annual appreciation observed in November.
The market shows signs of normalizing, with inventory deficits improving from pandemic lows. New listings are now only 14% below pre-pandemic levels, compared to a 25% deficit in March. Total inventory remains 26% below 2018-2019 norms, the smallest gap since September 2020. The current market is becoming more buyer-friendly, with less than 28% of homes selling above list price in October, and reduced competition during winter months provides better negotiating opportunities for buyers.
La previsione del mercato immobiliare di Zillow per il 2025 prevede un aumento graduale delle vendite di case, passando da 4,06 milioni nel 2024 a 4,16 milioni nel 2025, a condizione che i tassi ipotecari diminuiscano. Si prevede che i valori delle case crescano del 2,2% nel 2025, simile all'apprezzamento annuale del 2,3% osservato a novembre.
Il mercato mostra segni di normalizzazione, con il deficit di inventario che migliora rispetto ai minimi pandemici. I nuovi annunci sono ora solo il 14% inferiori ai livelli pre-pandemia, rispetto a un deficit del 25% a marzo. Il totale dell'inventario rimane il 26% al di sotto delle norme 2018-2019, il divario più piccolo da settembre 2020. L'attuale mercato sta diventando più favorevole agli acquirenti, con meno del 28% delle case vendute a un prezzo superiore a quello di listino in ottobre, e la riduzione della competizione durante i mesi invernali offre migliori opportunità di negoziazione per gli acquirenti.
El pronóstico del mercado inmobiliario de Zillow para 2025 predice un aumento gradual en las ventas de viviendas de 4.06 millones en 2024 a 4.16 millones en 2025, dependiendo de la disminución de las tasas de interés hipotecarias. Se espera que los valores de las casas crezcan un 2.2% durante 2025, similar a la apreciación anual del 2.3% observada en noviembre.
El mercado muestra signos de normalización, con mejoras en los déficit de inventario desde los mínimos de la pandemia. Los nuevos listados ahora están solo un 14% por debajo de los niveles anteriores a la pandemia, en comparación con un déficit del 25% en marzo. El inventario total sigue siendo un 26% inferior a las normas de 2018-2019, la brecha más pequeña desde septiembre de 2020. El mercado actual se está volviendo más favorable para los compradores, con menos del 28% de las casas vendiéndose por encima del precio de lista en octubre, y la reducción de la competencia durante los meses de invierno proporciona mejores oportunidades de negociación para los compradores.
질로우의 2025년 주택 시장 전망은 2024년 406만 채에서 2025년 416만 채로 주택 판매가 점진적으로 증가할 것으로 예상하며, 이는 모기지 금리의 하락에 달려 있습니다. 주택 가치는 2025년 2.2% 증가할 것으로 기대되며, 이는 11월에 관찰된 연평균 상승률인 2.3%와 유사합니다.
시장은 정상화의 징후를 보이고 있으며, 재고 부족이 팬데믹 최저치에서 개선되고 있습니다. 새로운 매물은 현재 팬데믹 이전 수준보다 14% 낮으며, 3월의 25% 적자와 비교됩니다. 총 재고는 2018-2019년 기준보다 26% 낮으며, 이는 2020년 9월 이후 가장 작은 차이입니다. 현재 시장은 구매자에게 더 유리해지고 있으며, 10월에는 28% 미만의 주택이 상장 가격보다 높게 판매되었고, 겨울철 경쟁이 줄어들어 구매자에게 더 나은 협상 기회를 제공합니다.
La prévision du marché immobilier de Zillow pour 2025 prévoit une augmentation progressive des ventes de maisons, passant de 4,06 millions en 2024 à 4,16 millions en 2025, en fonction de la baisse des taux hypothécaires. Les valeurs immobilières devraient croître de 2,2% en 2025, similaire à l'appréciation annuelle de 2,3% observée en novembre.
Le marché montre des signes de normalisation, avec des déficits d'inventaire s'améliorant par rapport aux niveaux les plus bas pendant la pandémie. Les nouvelles annonces sont désormais seulement 14% en dessous des niveaux d'avant la pandémie, contre un déficit de 25% en mars. L'inventaire total demeure 26% en dessous des normes de 2018-2019, le plus petit écart depuis septembre 2020. Le marché actuel devient plus favorable aux acheteurs, avec moins de 28% des maisons vendues au-dessus du prix demandé en octobre, et la réduction de la concurrence pendant les mois d'hiver offre de meilleures opportunités de négociation pour les acheteurs.
Zillows Prognose für den Wohnungsmarkt 2025 sieht einen allmählichen Anstieg der Immobilienverkäufe von 4,06 Millionen im Jahr 2024 auf 4,16 Millionen im Jahr 2025 vor, abhängig von sinkenden Hypothekenzinsen. Die Immobilienwerte werden voraussichtlich im Jahr 2025 um 2,2% steigen, was ähnlich der jährlichen Wertsteigerung von 2,3% im November ist.
Der Markt zeigt Anzeichen einer Normalisierung, da sich der Inventarengpass seit den pandemiebedingten Tiefständen verbessert. Neue Angebote liegen nun nur 14% unter dem Niveau vor der Pandemie, im Vergleich zu einem Defizit von 25% im März. Das gesamte Inventar bleibt 26% unter den Normen von 2018-2019, was die kleinste Lücke seit September 2020 darstellt. Der aktuelle Markt wird kauffreundlicher, da im Oktober weniger als 28% der Immobilien über dem Listenpreis verkauft wurden, und die reduzierte Konkurrenz in den Wintermonaten bietet den Käufern bessere Verhandlungsmöglichkeiten.
- Projected increase in home sales from 4.06M to 4.16M in 2025
- Expected 2.2% home value growth in 2025
- Improving inventory levels, with smallest deficit since September 2020
- Decreasing competition in housing market with fewer homes selling above list price
- New listings still 14% below pre-pandemic levels
- Total inventory remains 26% below 2018-2019 norms
- Market growth heavily dependent on mortgage rate movements
Insights
Zillow forecasts a gradual but bumpy decline in rates, impacting sales and price growth
- Zillow's 2025 forecast expects only about 100,000 more sales than in 2024.
- Home value growth nationwide is predicted to be low and slow:
2.2% over 2025. - Inventory and new listings are trending in the right direction, reducing pandemic-era deficits.
"There's a strong sense of déjà vu on tap for 2025. We are once again expecting mortgage rates to get better gradually, and opportunities for buyers should follow, but be prepared for plenty of bumps on that path," said Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen. "Those shopping this winter have plenty of time to choose and a relatively strong position in negotiations."
A forecast for slowly declining mortgage rates in 2025 spells gradual growth for both sales and home price appreciation in Zillow's outlook. A September dip in rates gave a second-half tailwind to this year's home sales2 — Zillow expects 4.06 million sales for 2024. That number should rise slightly to 4.16 million in 2025. Home values are forecast to tick up
Recent and unpredictable drops in mortgage rates further impress the need for buyers to be ready to move when opportunity arises. Zillow's new BuyAbilitySM tool uses current daily mortgage rates to determine a home budget that is affordable for individual users, based on their unique financial situation.
After the ups and downs of the past five years, many measures of the housing market are trending closer to historical norms. The flow of new listings to the market is still nearly
Total for-sale inventory is similarly clawing its way out of a deep hole that developed early in the pandemic. It's now about
Shoppers looking for homes during the slower winter months may have an opportunity to snag a deal in a market that's becoming increasingly buyer-friendly. Zillow's market heat index shows competition for homes cooled nationwide and in 36 of 50 major
While the number of options available to shoppers today are lower than they will likely see in the spring, there's also less competition in the field. The share of homes that sold for more than list price was below
Metro Area* | Zillow Home | ZHVI | Share of | Inventory | New Listings | Median |
2.3 % | 27.8 % | -26.3 % | -13.5 % | 28 | ||
7.0 % | 51.3 % | -54.6 % | -35.4 % | 32 | ||
4.5 % | 44.1 % | -27.7 % | -27.0 % | 24 | ||
5.0 % | 34.7 % | -47.7 % | -10.1 % | 19 | ||
-0.5 % | 16.8 % | -1.3 % | -12.3 % | 36 | ||
0.4 % | 14.8 % | -3.0 % | -3.2 % | 39 | ||
4.1 % | 40.7 % | -39.4 % | -18.0 % | 16 | ||
4.5 % | 39.9 % | -44.2 % | -12.7 % | 14 | ||
1.4 % | 8.9 % | -7.4 % | -8.4 % | 53 | ||
0.6 % | 19.3 % | -5.8 % | -20.4 % | 42 | ||
4.6 % | 51.2 % | -43.7 % | -29.0 % | 14 | ||
-0.4 % | 16.7 % | -12.5 % | -18.2 % | 33 | ||
2.0 % | 59.7 % | -8.6 % | -27.1 % | 24 | ||
3.4 % | 40.9 % | -26.5 % | -25.5 % | 30 | ||
4.1 % | 37.1 % | -34.6 % | -9.9 % | 17 | ||
4.7 % | 33.0 % | -24.1 % | -31.0 % | 24 | ||
1.7 % | 34.2 % | -27.7 % | -17.9 % | 34 | ||
3.9 % | 36.3 % | -32.7 % | -30.5 % | 26 | ||
-1.9 % | 14.3 % | 5.8 % | -5.8 % | 36 | ||
0.7 % | 23.1 % | 3.1 % | -33.5 % | 37 | ||
3.1 % | 42.2 % | -45.9 % | -12.5 % | 15 | ||
3.6 % | 40.7 % | -43.7 % | -5.7 % | 11 | ||
0.0 % | 11.6 % | 13.8 % | -10.8 % | 40 | ||
1.5 % | 19.2 % | 11.3 % | -3.9 % | 30 | ||
-2.4 % | 13.5 % | 21.1 % | -4.7 % | 55 | ||
1.4 % | 31.6 % | -21.0 % | -31.8 % | 33 | ||
1.9 % | 37.3 % | -28.0 % | -25.8 % | 24 | ||
2.3 % | 25.9 % | -31.9 % | -5.1 % | 22 | ||
4.0 % | 28.5 % | -33.2 % | -9.9 % | 11 | ||
-3.4 % | 10.4 % | 29.9 % | -21.9 % | 71 | ||
5.2 % | 19.0 % | -20.6 % | -24.5 % | 33 | ||
3.2 % | 30.9 % | -35.1 % | -17.8 % | 16 | ||
3.3 % | 32.8 % | -22.8 % | -11.7 % | 13 | ||
3.0 % | 19.9 % | -15.7 % | -5.8 % | 21 | ||
5.9 % | 37.8 % | -51.5 % | -11.9 % | 13 | ||
7.5 % | 68.2 % | -32.3 % | -25.6 % | 19 | ||
1.3 % | 15.2 % | -10.1 % | -13.3 % | 35 | ||
4.4 % | 33.0 % | -44.3 % | -10.4 % | 31 | ||
6.7 % | 48.6 % | -59.5 % | -25.2 % | 16 | ||
-0.7 % | 12.9 % | 11.4 % | -5.2 % | 56 | ||
4.8 % | 45.2 % | -23.5 % | 10.2 % | 31 | ||
2.1 % | 22.2 % | -5.0 % | 0.8 % | 33 | ||
0.9 % | 24.4 % | -12.2 % | -26.2 % | 26 | ||
0.9 % | 16.7 % | 0.4 % | -9.8 % | 29 | ||
4.1 % | 41.9 % | -39.2 % | -14.8 % | 14 | ||
3.9 % | 25.3 % | -29.5 % | -11.3 % | 18 | ||
-1.9 % | 13.3 % | 57.4 % | 22.6 % | 47 | ||
2.1 % | 28.4 % | -13.3 % | -30.5 % | 28 | ||
6.7 % | 63.5 % | -66.0 % | -15.9 % | 9 | ||
5.2 % | 67.2 % | -44.7 % | -12.4 % | 16 | ||
0.2 % | 23.4 % | -17.2 % | -2.4 % | 27 |
*Table ordered by market size |
1 The Zillow® market report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The report is compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit zillow.com/research.
2 National Association of Realtors existing home sales, not seasonally adjusted.
About Zillow Group:
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