United States Steel Corporation Provides First Quarter 2025 Guidance
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) has provided its first quarter 2025 guidance, projecting adjusted net earnings per diluted share of ($0.53) to ($0.49) and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $125 million.
The company reports mixed performance across segments: The North American Flat-Rolled segment shows strength through commercial strategy and operational efficiencies. The Mini Mill segment expects sequential improvement with increasing volumes from Big River Steel and Big River 2 (BR2), though BR2 faces approximately $50 million in ramp-related impacts. The European segment shows slight pricing improvements but faces subdued demand, while the Tubular segment faces pressure from weak pricing.
BR2 is progressing towards full operating capacity, with run-rate throughput expected in second half 2025 and full capability in 2026. The company also acknowledges potential benefits from recently announced tariff policies and its partnership with Nippon Steel, which includes investment commitments and technology transfer.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) ha fornito le sue previsioni per il primo trimestre del 2025, prevedendo utili netti rettificati per azione diluita compresi tra ($0,53) e ($0,49) e un EBITDA rettificato di circa 125 milioni di dollari.
L'azienda riporta prestazioni miste tra i vari segmenti: il segmento North American Flat-Rolled mostra forza grazie a strategie commerciali ed efficienze operative. Il segmento Mini Mill prevede un miglioramento sequenziale con volumi in aumento da Big River Steel e Big River 2 (BR2), sebbene BR2 affronti impatti legati al ramp-up di circa 50 milioni di dollari. Il segmento europeo mostra lievi miglioramenti dei prezzi ma affronta una domanda contenuta, mentre il segmento Tubular è sotto pressione a causa di prezzi deboli.
BR2 sta progredendo verso la piena capacità operativa, con un throughput previsto nella seconda metà del 2025 e una capacità completa nel 2026. L'azienda riconosce inoltre potenziali benefici dalle politiche tariffarie recentemente annunciate e dalla sua partnership con Nippon Steel, che include impegni di investimento e trasferimento di tecnologia.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) ha proporcionado su guía para el primer trimestre de 2025, proyectando ganancias netas ajustadas por acción diluida de ($0.53) a ($0.49) y un EBITDA ajustado de aproximadamente 125 millones de dólares.
La compañía informa un desempeño mixto entre los segmentos: el segmento North American Flat-Rolled muestra fortaleza gracias a estrategias comerciales y eficiencias operativas. El segmento Mini Mill espera una mejora secuencial con volúmenes crecientes de Big River Steel y Big River 2 (BR2), aunque BR2 enfrenta impactos relacionados con el ramp-up de aproximadamente 50 millones de dólares. El segmento europeo muestra ligeras mejoras de precios pero enfrenta una demanda contenida, mientras que el segmento Tubular enfrenta presión por precios débiles.
BR2 está avanzando hacia la plena capacidad operativa, con un rendimiento esperado en la segunda mitad de 2025 y una capacidad completa en 2026. La compañía también reconoce beneficios potenciales de las políticas arancelarias recientemente anunciadas y su asociación con Nippon Steel, que incluye compromisos de inversión y transferencia de tecnología.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X)는 2025년 1분기 가이드를 제공하며 희석 주당 조정 순이익을 ($0.53)에서 ($0.49)로 예상하고 조정 EBITDA는 약 1억 2500만 달러로 예측했습니다.
회사는 세그먼트 간 혼합된 성과를 보고합니다: 북미 평판 롤링 세그먼트는 상업 전략과 운영 효율성을 통해 강세를 보이고 있습니다. 미니 밀 세그먼트는 Big River Steel과 Big River 2 (BR2)로부터 증가하는 물량으로 순차적인 개선을 기대하고 있지만, BR2는 약 5000만 달러의 램프 관련 영향을 받고 있습니다. 유럽 세그먼트는 가격이 약간 개선되었지만 수요는 둔화되고 있으며, 튜블러 세그먼트는 낮은 가격으로 압박을 받고 있습니다.
BR2는 2025년 하반기에는 처리량이 예상되고 2026년에는 완전한 운영 능력에 도달할 것으로 보입니다. 회사는 또한 최근 발표된 관세 정책과 일본 강철과의 파트너십으로 인한 잠재적 이점을 인정하고 있으며, 여기에는 투자 약속과 기술 이전이 포함됩니다.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) a fourni ses prévisions pour le premier trimestre 2025, projetant un bénéfice net ajusté par action diluée compris entre ($0,53) et ($0,49) et un EBITDA ajusté d'environ 125 millions de dollars.
L'entreprise rapporte des performances mixtes entre les segments : le segment North American Flat-Rolled montre une force grâce à des stratégies commerciales et des efficacités opérationnelles. Le segment Mini Mill s'attend à une amélioration séquentielle avec des volumes croissants de Big River Steel et Big River 2 (BR2), bien que BR2 fasse face à des impacts liés à la montée d'environ 50 millions de dollars. Le segment européen montre de légères améliorations de prix mais fait face à une demande modérée, tandis que le segment Tubular subit une pression en raison de prix faibles.
BR2 progresse vers une pleine capacité opérationnelle, avec un débit prévu dans la seconde moitié de 2025 et une capacité complète en 2026. L'entreprise reconnaît également les avantages potentiels des politiques tarifaires récemment annoncées et de son partenariat avec Nippon Steel, qui inclut des engagements d'investissement et un transfert de technologie.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) hat seine Prognose für das erste Quartal 2025 veröffentlicht und rechnet mit einem bereinigten Nettogewinn pro verwässerter Aktie von ($0,53) bis ($0,49) sowie einem bereinigten EBITDA von etwa 125 Millionen Dollar.
Das Unternehmen berichtet von gemischten Leistungen in den Segmenten: Das Segment North American Flat-Rolled zeigt Stärke durch kommerzielle Strategien und betriebliche Effizienz. Das Mini Mill-Segment erwartet eine sequenzielle Verbesserung mit steigenden Volumina von Big River Steel und Big River 2 (BR2), obwohl BR2 mit rampenbedingten Auswirkungen von etwa 50 Millionen Dollar konfrontiert ist. Das europäische Segment zeigt leichte Preisverbesserungen, sieht sich jedoch einer gedämpften Nachfrage gegenüber, während das Tubular-Segment unter Druck durch schwache Preise leidet.
BR2 macht Fortschritte in Richtung voller Betriebsfähigkeit, mit einem Durchsatz, der in der zweiten Hälfte von 2025 erwartet wird, und voller Kapazität im Jahr 2026. Das Unternehmen erkennt auch potenzielle Vorteile aus den kürzlich angekündigten Zollrichtlinien und seiner Partnerschaft mit Nippon Steel an, die Investitionsverpflichtungen und Technologietransfer umfasst.
- Strong operational efficiency in North American Flat-Rolled segment
- Sequential improvement expected in Mini Mill segment volumes
- BR2 progressing towards full operating capacity with positive customer feedback
- Potential benefits from new tariff policies and Nippon Steel partnership
- Negative Q1 2025 earnings guidance ($0.53-$0.49 loss per share)
- $50 million in ramp-related costs for BR2 in Q1
- Subdued demand in European segment
- Weak pricing environment in Tubular segment
Insights
U.S. Steel's Q1 2025 guidance reveals a challenging near-term financial picture with projected losses of
The segmental performance shows a mixed but predominantly weak outlook. The Flat-Rolled segment faces seasonal mining logistics constraints, though partial offset is expected from higher pricing and volumes. The Mini Mill segment includes approximately
Particularly concerning is that despite these headwinds, management describes the
Management's emphasis on BR2's future potential represents a classic "jam tomorrow" narrative – projecting significant contributions to 2025 EBITDA with full run-rate capability not until 2026. This frames current underperformance as temporary while investment cycles complete.
The commentary on Trump's tariff policies appears speculative as management admits they're still "assessing the benefit" – indicating no concrete financial impact has been quantified yet. The pending Nippon Steel merger remains a significant variable that could alter the company's trajectory independent of current operational challenges.
Commenting on first quarter guidance, President and Chief Executive Officer David B. Burritt said, “Adjusted EBITDA guidance of
Burritt continued, “We remain extremely pleased with the outstanding customer feedback on the product quality of shipments from BR2 as it progresses towards full operating capacity and free cash flow generation this year. BR2 is expected to make a significant contribution to our 2025 EBITDA, with run-rate throughput expected during the second half of 2025 and full run-rate capability in 2026.”
Burritt concluded, “We applaud President Trump's leadership and advocacy for the American steel industry in his recent tariff announcements. We continue to assess the benefit we expect from these tariff policies. Combined with the partnership with Nippon Steel, which includes investment commitments, technology transfer and innovation, U. S. Steel’s future is extremely bright.”
First Quarter Adjusted EBITDA Commentary
The Flat-Rolled segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to be lower than the fourth quarter primarily driven by typical seasonal logistics constraints in the mining sector, which will unwind in the second quarter. We anticipate that higher average selling prices and increased volumes will partially offset this mining impact.
The Mini Mill segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to be higher than the fourth quarter due to an increase in shipments. For the first quarter, we expect approximately
The European segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve compared to the fourth quarter, largely due to an increase in shipments, volume efficiencies and favorable raw material pricing, yet the sector will continue to face pressures from a challenging demand environment in
The Tubular segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected to be higher than the fourth quarter due to an increase in prime shipments and higher average selling prices.
UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION
|
|||
(Dollars in millions) |
|||
Reconciliation to Projected Adjusted EBITDA Included in Guidance |
Q1 2025 |
||
Projected net earnings attributable to United States Steel Corporation included in guidance |
$ |
(145 |
) |
Estimated income tax provision |
|
(50 |
) |
Estimated net interest and other financial costs (income) |
|
30 |
|
Estimated depreciation, depletion, and amortization |
|
245 |
|
Projected EBITDA included in guidance |
$ |
80 |
|
Estimated adjustments |
|
45 |
|
Projected adjusted EBITDA included in guidance |
$ |
125 |
|
UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION
|
|||
(Dollars in millions, except per share amounts) |
|||
Reconciliation to Projected Adjusted Net Earnings Attributable to U. S. Steel Included in Guidance |
Q1 2025 |
||
Projected net earnings attributable to United States Steel Corporation included in guidance |
$ |
(145 |
) |
Estimated adjustments |
|
30 |
|
Projected adjusted net earnings attributable to United States Steel Corporation included in guidance |
$ |
(115 |
) |
Reconciliation to Projected Adjusted Net Earnings Per Diluted Share Included in Guidance |
Q1 2025 |
||
Projected net earnings per diluted share included in guidance (mid-point of guidance) |
$ |
(0.64 |
) |
Estimated adjustments |
|
0.13 |
|
Projected adjusted net earnings per diluted share included in guidance (mid-point of guidance) |
$ |
(0.51 |
) |
Note: This reconciliation excludes the impact of the Company’s quarterly adjustment related to the surplus VEBA assets and certain transaction-related costs. See Note 18 in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, for an explanation of the surplus VEBA assets. The excluded items are not expected to impact adjusted EBITDA.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains information regarding the Company that may constitute “forward-looking statements,” as that term is defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other securities laws, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We intend the forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements in those sections. Generally, we have identified such forward-looking statements by using the words “believe,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “project,” “target,” “forecast,” “aim,” “should,” “plan,” “goal,” “future,” “will,” “may” and similar expressions or by using future dates in connection with any discussion of, among other things, statements expressing general views about future operating or financial results, operating or financial performance, trends, events or developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, anticipated cost savings, potential capital and operational cash improvements and changes in the global economic environment, anticipated capital expenditures, the construction or operation of new or existing facilities or capabilities and the costs associated with such matters, statements regarding our greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals, as well as statements regarding the merger between the Company and Nippon Steel Corporation (the “Merger”), including the timing of the completion of the Merger. However, the absence of these words or similar expressions does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not historical facts, but instead represent only the Company’s beliefs regarding future goals, plans and expectations about our prospects for the future and other events, many of which, by their nature, are inherently uncertain and outside of the Company’s control. It is possible that the Company’s actual results and financial condition may differ, possibly materially, from the anticipated results and financial condition indicated in these forward-looking statements. Management of the Company believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the time made. However, caution should be taken not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements because such statements speak only as of the date when made. In addition, forward looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s historical experience and our present expectations or projections. Risks and uncertainties include without limitation: the ability of the parties to consummate the Merger on a timely basis or at all; the occurrence of any event, change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the definitive agreement and plan of merger relating to the Merger (the “Merger Agreement”); risks arising from litigation related to the Merger, either brought by or against the parties; the risk that the parties to the Merger Agreement may not be able to satisfy the conditions to the Merger in a timely manner or at all; risks related to disruption of management time from ongoing business operations due to the Merger and related litigation; certain restrictions during the pendency of the Merger that may impact the Company’s ability to pursue certain business opportunities or strategic transactions; the risk that any announcements relating to the Merger could have adverse effects on the market price of the Company’s common stock; the risk of any unexpected costs or expenses resulting from the Merger; the risk that the Merger and its announcement could have an adverse effect on the ability of the Company to retain customers and retain and hire key personnel and maintain relationships with customers, suppliers, employees, stockholders and other business relationships and on its operating results and business generally; and the risk the pending Merger could distract management of the Company. The Company directs readers to its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2024, and the other documents it files with the SEC for other risks associated with the Company’s future performance. These documents contain and identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. All information in this report is as of the date above. The Company does not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the Company’s expectations whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Note Regarding Non-GAAP Financial Measures
We present adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share, earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) and adjusted EBITDA, which are non-GAAP measures, as additional measurements to enhance the understanding of our operating performance. We believe that EBITDA, considered along with net earnings, is a relevant indicator of trends relating to our operating performance and provides management and investors with additional information for comparison of our operating results to the operating results of other companies.
Adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures that exclude certain charges that are not part of the Company’s core operations such as restructuring or asset impairments (Adjustment Items). We present adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA to enhance the understanding of our ongoing operating performance and established trends affecting our core operations by excluding the effects of events that can obscure underlying trends. U. S. Steel’s management considers adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA as alternative measures of operating performance and not alternative measures of the Company’s liquidity and believes these measures are useful to investors by facilitating a comparison of our operating performance to the operating performance of our competitors. Additionally, the presentation of adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA provides insight into management’s view and assessment of the Company’s ongoing operating performance because management does not consider the Adjustment Items when evaluating the Company’s financial performance. Adjusted net earnings, adjusted net earnings per diluted share and adjusted EBITDA should not be considered a substitute for net earnings, earnings per diluted share or other financial measures as computed in accordance with
Founded in 1901, U. S. Steel delivers profitable and sustainable steel solutions. Propelled by its talented employees and an unwavering focus on safety, U. S. Steel serves the automotive, construction, appliance, energy, containers, and packaging industries with high value-added steel products. Steel production begins with our competitively advantaged iron ore production capabilities which fuel our integrated steelmaking facilities and investments in electric arc furnaces. To help our customers create the best products with the fewest emissions, we are committed to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. U. S. Steel is at the forefront of creating steels that are stronger, lighter, and better for the environment. This includes our proprietary XG3® advanced high-strength steel, verdeX® steel produced with 70
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Corporate Communications
T – (412) 433-1300
E – media@uss.com
Emily Chieng
Investor Relations Officer
T – (412) 618-9554
E – ecchieng@uss.com
Source: United States Steel Corporation
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