Wells Fargo Investment Institute Signals the U.S. is Positioned to Power the Global Economy in 2025
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) has released its '2025 Outlook' report, projecting the U.S. economy will lead global economic expansion. The report forecasts the S&P 500 Index to reach 6,500-6,700 by year-end 2025, with broader market participation expected across sectors including small-cap equities, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, and Energy.
Key projections include U.S. GDP growth of 2.5%, consumer price inflation at 3.3%, and Federal funds rate at 4.00%-4.25%. WFII anticipates U.S. Treasury yields of 4.50%-5.00% (10-year) and 4.75%-5.25% (30-year). The outlook suggests stock returns will be primarily driven by earnings growth, while commodities are expected to benefit from slow supply growth and global demand rebound.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) ha pubblicato il suo rapporto '2025 Outlook', prevedendo che l'economia statunitense guiderà l'espansione economica globale. Il rapporto prevede che l'S&P 500 Index raggiunga i 6.500-6.700 entro la fine del 2025, con una maggiore partecipazione del mercato prevista in vari settori, tra cui azioni a bassa capitalizzazione, finanziari, servizi di comunicazione, industriali ed energia.
Le principali proiezioni includono una crescita del PIL statunitense del 2,5%, un'inflazione dei prezzi al consumo del 3,3% e un tasso dei fondi federali compreso tra 4,00%-4,25%. WFII prevede rendimenti dei titoli di Stato statunitensi del 4,50%-5,00% (10 anni) e del 4,75%-5,25% (30 anni). L'outlook suggerisce che i rendimenti azionari saranno principalmente guidati dalla crescita degli utili, mentre si prevede che le materie prime beneficeranno da una crescita lenta dell'offerta e da una ripresa della domanda globale.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) ha publicado su informe '2025 Outlook', proyectando que la economía de EE.UU. liderará la expansión económica global. El informe pronostica que el S&P 500 Index alcanzará entre 6,500 y 6,700 para finales de 2025, con una mayor participación del mercado esperada en sectores que incluyen acciones de pequeña capitalización, financieros, servicios de comunicación, industriales y energía.
Las proyecciones clave incluyen un crecimiento del PIB de EE.UU. del 2.5%, inflación de precios al consumidor del 3.3%, y una tasa de fondos federales entre 4.00%-4.25%. WFII anticipa rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro de EE.UU. del 4.50%-5.00% (a 10 años) y 4.75%-5.25% (a 30 años). El pronóstico sugiere que los rendimientos de las acciones serán impulsados principalmente por el crecimiento de las ganancias, mientras que se espera que las materias primas se beneficien de un lento crecimiento de la oferta y una recuperación de la demanda global.
웰스파고 투자 연구소 (WFII)가 '2025 전망' 보고서를 발표했습니다. 이 보고서는 미국 경제가 세계 경제 확장을 이끌 것이라고 전망합니다. 보고서에 따르면 S&P 500 지수는 2025년 연말까지 6,500-6,700에 도달할 것으로 예상되며, 소형주, 금융, 통신 서비스, 산업 및 에너지를 포함한 다양한 분야에서의 시장 참여가 예상됩니다.
주요 전망에는 미국 GDP 성장률 2.5%, 소비자 물가 인플레이션 3.3%, 연방 기금 금리가 4.00%-4.25%가 포함됩니다. WFII는 미국 국채 수익률이 4.50%-5.00% (10년) 및 4.75%-5.25% (30년)에 이를 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 이 전망은 주식 수익률이 주로 기업 이익 증가에 의해 주도될 것이고, 원자재는 느린 공급 증가와 글로벌 수요 회복의 혜택을 받을 것으로 예상합니다.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) a publié son rapport '2025 Outlook', prévoyant que l'économie américaine sera le moteur de l'expansion économique mondiale. Le rapport prévoit que le S&P 500 Index atteindra entre 6 500 et 6 700 d'ici la fin de l'année 2025, avec une participation du marché plus large attendue dans des secteurs tels que les petites capitalisations, les services financiers, les services de communication, l'industrie et l'énergie.
Les principales projections incluent une croissance du PIB américain de 2,5%, une inflation des prix à la consommation de 3,3%, et un taux des fonds fédéraux compris entre 4,00%-4,25%. WFII anticipe des rendements des bons du Trésor américain de 4,50%-5,00% (10 ans) et de 4,75%-5,25% (30 ans). Les perspectives suggèrent que les rendements boursiers seront principalement tirés par la croissance des bénéfices, tandis que les matières premières devraient bénéficier d'une croissance lente de l'offre et d'un rebond de la demande mondiale.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) hat seinen Bericht '2025 Ausblick' veröffentlicht, der prognostiziert, dass die US-Wirtschaft das globale Wirtschaftswachstum anführen wird. Der Bericht sagt voraus, dass der S&P 500 Index bis Ende 2025 zwischen 6.500 und 6.700 Punkten erreichen wird, wobei eine breitere Marktteilnahme in Sektoren wie Nebenwerten, Finanzwesen, Kommunikationsdiensten, Industrie und Energie erwartet wird.
Zu den wichtigsten Prognosen gehören ein US-BIP-Wachstum von 2,5%, eine Verbraucherpreis-Inflation von 3,3% und ein Federal Funds Rate von 4,00%-4,25%. WFII erwartet US-Staatsanleihenrenditen von 4,50%-5,00% (10 Jahre) und 4,75%-5,25% (30 Jahre). Der Ausblick deutet darauf hin, dass die Aktienrenditen vor allem durch das Gewinnwachstum getrieben werden, während Rohstoffe von langsamem Angebotswachstum und einer globalen Nachfragesteigerung profitieren dürften.
- Projected S&P 500 Index target range of 6,500-6,700 for year-end 2025
- Expected U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% by year-end 2025
- Anticipated broader market participation across multiple sectors
- Favorable outlook for earnings-driven stock returns
- Projected inflation rate remains elevated at 3.3%
- Economic recoveries in Europe, China, and emerging markets face significant headwinds
- Expected rise in longer-term interest rates
Insights
With a leading
Wells Fargo Investment Institute 2025 Outlook: Charting the economy's next Chapter (Photo: Wells Fargo)
WFII expects equity market leadership breadth to continue to widen, including extended participation by more cyclically oriented areas of the market, such as small-cap equities and the Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, and Energy sectors of the S&P 500 Index.
“We continue to believe that equity markets look attractive for 2025, with broader sector leadership and participation, thanks to improving fundamentals and a policy tailwind,” said Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management. “The incoming administration and congressional leaders want a fast start, with likely policy priorities including extending tax benefits, deregulation, tariffs, and tighter border control. We expect that these policies will support our guidance.”
Outlook on global economy and asset groups:
-
Global economy: We believe the
U.S. economy will lead the global economy, as economic recoveries inEurope ,China , and emerging markets face significant headwinds. - Global equities: We expect returns to be driven mainly by earnings growth, but valuations should remain supportive.
-
Global fixed income: Short-term
U.S. Treasury rates likely will fall with the Federal Reserve policy rate, but longer-term rates should rise with economic growth, tariffs, and immigration restrictions. - Global real assets: We believe commodities are well-positioned to benefit from slow supply growth and a global demand rebound that is driven by a modest international economic recovery and lower global interest rates.
- Global alternative investments: Global alternative investments are likely to benefit from a pickup in merger and acquisition activity, lower cost of borrowing, and increasing confidence that economic growth is sustainable.
Top portfolio ideas:
- Prepare for abundant liquidity to diversify investment opportunities
-
Position for a cyclical recovery but remain tilted toward
U.S. assets - Rethink investment income
- Consider expanding opportunities in artificial intelligence
- Keep extreme risks in perspective
Highlights of WFII’s forecast:
-
The anticipated
U.S. GDP (gross domestic product) growth target for 2025 year-end is2.5% . -
The target for
U.S. consumer price inflation in 2025 is3.3% . - The S&P 500 Index price target range is 6,500 – 6,700 for year-end 2025.
-
The Federal funds rate forecast for 2025 is
4.00% –4.25% , with 10- and 30-yearU.S. Treasury yield forecasts of4.50% -5.00% and4.75% -5.25% , respectively.
The full report provides guidance for investors to help navigate the next 12 months, long-term themes that WFII believes are investable now, a closer look on sector and sub-sector preferences, as well as
Join the WFII 2025 Outlook call today, December 11, at 4:15 p.m. Eastern Time. Dial-in: 877-601-6604; Passcode: 71-306-44.
A summary of the WFII 2025 Outlook is available (PDF).
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Risk Disclosure
Forecasts and targets are based on certain assumptions and on our current views of market and economic conditions, which are subject to change.
All investing involves risks, including the possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful and meet its investment objectives. Investments fluctuate with changes in market and economic conditions and in different environments due to numerous factors, some of which may be unpredictable. Asset allocation and diversification do not guarantee investment returns or eliminate risk of loss.
Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. A stock’s value may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. International investing has additional risks including those associated with currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. These risks are heightened in emerging and frontier markets. Investments in fixed-income securities are subject to market, interest rate, credit, liquidity, inflation, prepayment, extension, and other risks. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in a decline in the bond’s price.
The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Do not use this report as the primary basis for investment decisions. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs, and investment time horizon.
About Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. is a registered investment adviser and wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.
About Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) is a leading financial services company that has approximately
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Media
Sarah Kerr, 917-588-5919
sarah.kerr@wellsfargo.com
Source: Wells Fargo & Company
FAQ
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