TotalEnergies SE: Second Quarter 2023: Main Indicators
- Hydrocarbon production expected to decrease this quarter due to planned maintenance in the North Sea
- Cash flow expected to remain high despite less favorable environment in Integrated LNG segment
- Integrated Power results expected to be higher than previous quarter
- Working capital release expected to provide a tailwind to cash flow
- Downstream results expected to be in line with decrease in refining margins
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) second quarter 2023 aggregates are shown below:
| Main indicators | ||||||||||||
2Q23 |
|
1Q23 |
|
4Q22 |
|
3Q22 |
|
2Q22 |
||||
| €/$ | 1.09 |
|
1.07 |
|
1.02 |
|
1.01 |
|
1.06 |
|||
| Brent | ($/b) | 78.1 |
|
81.2 |
|
88.8 |
|
100.8 |
|
113.9 |
||
| Average liquids price * (1) | ($/b) | 72.0 |
|
73.4 |
|
80.6 |
|
93.6 |
|
102.9 |
||
| Average gas price * (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 5.98 |
|
8.89 |
|
12.74 |
|
16.83 |
|
11.01 |
||
| Average LNG price ** (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 9.84 |
|
13.27 |
|
14.83 |
|
21.51 |
|
13.96 |
||
| Variable Cost Margin, European refining *** | ($/t) | 42.7 |
|
87.8 |
|
73.6 |
|
99.2 |
|
145.7 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
(1) Does not take include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the quarter aggregates
- Hydrocarbon production is expected at nearly 2.5 Mboe/d this quarter, down about 50 kboe/d compared to the previous quarter mainly due to planned maintenance in the North Sea. Exploration & Production results are expected to be in line with the evolution of the environment.
- Despite the expected significant impact of a less favorable environment on results from the Integrated LNG segment, illustrated by an average LNG price near 10 $/Mbtu, cash flow should remain high thanks to high margins captured in 2022 for 2023 deliveries.
-
Integrated Power results are expected to be above
$400 million - Downstream results are expected to be in line with the decrease in refining margins.
- A working capital release is expected, which should provide a tailwind to cash flow.
2023 Sensitivities*
Change |
|
Estimated impact on
|
|
Estimated impact on
|
||
| Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ per € |
|
-/+ 0.1 B$ |
|
~0 B$ |
|
| Average liquids price** | +/- 10 $/b |
|
+/- 2.5 B$ |
|
+/- 3.0 B$ |
|
| European gas price - NBP / TTF | +/- 2 $/Mbtu |
|
+/- 0.4 B$ |
|
+/- 0.4 B$ |
|
| Variable cost margin, European refining (VCM) | +/- 10 $/t |
|
+/- 0.4 B$ |
|
+/- 0.5 B$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2023. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
** In a 80 $/b Brent environment.
Disclaimer
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate and independent legal entities.
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the first quarter 2023 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law, TotalEnergies SE disclaims all liability from the use of this data.
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of TotalEnergies. This document may also contain statements regarding the perspectives, objectives, areas of improvement and goals of TotalEnergies, including with respect to climate change and carbon neutrality (net zero emissions). An ambition expresses an outcome desired by TotalEnergies, it being specified that the means to be deployed do not depend solely on TotalEnergies. These forward-looking statements may generally be identified by the use of the future or conditional tense or forward-looking words such as “envisions”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “considers”, “plans”, “expects”, “thinks”, “targets”, “aims” or similar terminology. Such forward-looking statements included in this document are based on economic data, estimates and assumptions prepared in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment and considered to be reasonable by TotalEnergies as of the date of this document.
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information on risk factors that could have a significant adverse effect on TotalEnergies’ business, financial condition, including its operating income and cash flow, reputation, outlook or the value of financial instruments issued by TotalEnergies is provided in the most recent version of the Universal Registration Document which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. In addition to IFRS measures, certain alternative performance indicators are presented, such as performance indicators excluding certain adjustment items (i.e., special items, inventory valuation effect and effect of changes in fair value) -adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income). These indicators are meant to facilitate the analysis of the financial performance of TotalEnergies and the comparison of income between periods. They allow investors to track the measures used internally to manage and measure the performance of TotalEnergies. The adjusted results (adjusted net operating income, adjusted net income) are defined as replacement cost results, adjusted for special items, excluding the effect of changes in fair value. For further details on the adjustment items, please refer to the last published earnings statement and notes to the consolidated financial statements.
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TotalEnergies SE
Source: TotalEnergies SE
FAQ
What is the expected impact on hydrocarbon production in Q2 2023?
What can be expected for the cash flow in the Integrated LNG segment?
How are the Integrated Power results expected to perform in Q2 2023?
What impact is expected on downstream results in Q2 2023?
What can be expected in terms of cash flow in Q2 2023?
