TotalEnergies: Fourth Quarter 2022: Main Indicators
TotalEnergies (Euronext Paris: TTE) has reported its fourth quarter 2022 key indicators and financial information. The company anticipates an increase in cash flow from LNG and gas trading activities, despite decreased gas prices. Hydrocarbon production is projected to rise by 5% to exceed 2.8 Mboe/d, aided by project ramp-ups and the restart of Kashagan production. However, downstream results may not replicate past performance due to a less favorable environment. Total impacts from the UK Energy Profits Levy and the EU solidarity contribution are expected to amount to $2.1 billion. TotalEnergies plans to continue share buybacks of $2 billion into Q1 2023.
- Cash flow from LNG business expected to rise despite lower gas prices.
- Hydrocarbon production projected to exceed 2.8 Mboe/d, up 5%.
- Share buybacks of $2 billion planned to continue in Q1 2023.
- Downstream results may underperform compared to previous quarters.
- UK Energy Profits Levy impact estimated at $1 billion.
- Impairment of 19.4% stake in Novatek estimated at $4 billion.
The main indicators, estimated financial information and key elements impacting TotalEnergies’ fourth quarter 2022 aggregates are shown below:
Main indicators | ||||||
|
|
4Q22 |
3Q22 |
2Q22 |
1Q22 |
4Q21 |
€/$ |
|
1,02 |
1,01 |
1,06 |
1,12 |
1,14 |
Brent | ($/b) | 88,8 |
100,8 |
113,9 |
102,2 |
79,8 |
Average liquids price* (1) | ($/b) | 80,6 |
93,6 |
102,9 |
90,1 |
72,6 |
Average gas price* (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 12,74 |
16,83 |
11,01 |
12,27 |
11,38 |
Average LNG price** (1) | ($/Mbtu) | 14,83 |
21,51 |
13,96 |
13,60 |
13,12 |
Variable Cost Margin, European refining*** | ($/t) | 73,6 |
99,2 |
145,7 |
46,3 |
16,7 |
* Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated affiliates.
** Sales in $ / Sales in volume for consolidated and equity affiliates.
*** This indicator represents the average margin on variable costs realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining business (equal to the difference between the sales of refined products realized by TotalEnergies’ European refining and the crude purchases as well as associated variable costs, divided by refinery throughput in tons).
(1) Does not take include oil, gas and LNG trading activities, respectively.
Main elements impacting the quarter aggregates
- Cash flow from LNG business and gas trading activities is expected to be higher than previous quarter, despite lower gas prices, benefiting from our integrated portfolio.
-
Hydrocarbon production is expected to exceed 2.8 Mboe/d this quarter, up
5% over the quarter, benefiting from project ramp-ups (Mero 1, Ikike) and the restart of Kashagan production. - Downstream results are expected to remain strong, without replicating the performances reached over the two previous quarters, which benefited from a highly favorable environment.
-
In line with the applicable accounting standards, the
UK Energy Profits Levy (EPL) will be reported in the fourth quarter adjusted results for 0.4 B$, excluding a 0.3 B$ negative deferred tax impact accounted as special item. The EPL impact in the 2022 adjusted results is therefore expected to be 1 B$. -
The EU solidarity contribution for 2022, including the electricity production infra-marginal income contribution for 2022, will be reported in the fourth quarter as part of special items for a total of 1.1 B$. -
The impairment related to the decision to no longer equity account for the
19.4% stake in Novatek startingDecember 31, 2022 is estimated to be around 4 B$ after taking into account the ruble evolution. - Share buybacks amounted to 2 B$ in the fourth quarter 2022 and should continue over the first quarter 2023 at the same pace.
2022 Sensitivities*
Change | Estimated impact on adjusted net operating income |
Estimated impact on cash flow from operations |
|
Dollar | +/- 0.1 $ per € | -/+ 0.1 B$ | ~0 B$ |
Average liquids price** | +/- 10 $/b | +/- 2.7 B$ | +/- 3.2 B$ |
European gas price - NBP / TTF*** | +/- 2 $/Mbtu | +/- 0.5 B$ | +/- 0.5 B$ |
Variable cost margin, European refining (VCM) | +/- 10 $/t | +/- 0.4 B$ | +/- 0.5 B$ |
* Sensitivities are revised once per year upon publication of the previous year’s fourth quarter results. Sensitivities are estimates based on assumptions about TotalEnergies’ portfolio in 2022. Actual results could vary significantly from estimates based on the application of these sensitivities. The impact of the $-€ sensitivity on adjusted net operating income is essentially attributable to Refining & Chemicals.
Sensitivity to European gas price has been exceptionally updated during third quarter (see ***).
** In a 60 $/b Brent environment.
*** Sensitivity including
Sensitivity +/- 0.4 B$ starting 3Q 2022, related to
Disclaimer
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” and “Company” in this document are used to designate
The data presented in this document is based on TotalEnergies’ internal preliminary reporting and is not audited. This data is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of all items that will affect TotalEnergies SE’s results or to provide an estimate of the fourth quarter 2022 results. Actual results may vary. To the extent permitted by law,
This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, notably with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business activities and industrial strategy of
These forward-looking statements are not historical data and should not be interpreted as assurances that the perspectives, objectives or goals announced will be achieved. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future, and may evolve or be modified with a significant difference between the actual results and those initially estimated, due to the uncertainties notably related to the economic, financial, competitive and regulatory environment, or due to the occurrence of risk factors, such as, notably, the price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas, the evolution of the demand and price of petroleum products, the changes in production results and reserves estimates, the ability to achieve cost reductions and operating efficiencies without unduly disrupting business operations, changes in laws and regulations including those related to the environment and climate, currency fluctuations, as well as economic and political developments, changes in market conditions, loss of market share and changes in consumer preferences, or pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, certain financial information is based on estimates particularly in the assessment of the recoverable value of assets and potential impairments of assets relating thereto.
Neither
Financial information by business segment is reported in accordance with the internal reporting system and shows internal segment information that is used to manage and measure the performance of
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FAQ
What are TotalEnergies' projected cash flow expectations for Q4 2022?
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What are the financial impacts of the UK Energy Profits Levy on TotalEnergies?
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