TrueCar Releases Analysis of January Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. forecasts total new vehicle sales for January 2022 at 1,006,325 units, reflecting a 9% decline year-over-year and 7% from December 2021. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is estimated at 15.3 million units. Retail deliveries are anticipated to reach 893,077 units, down 10% from last year. Despite a slight decrease in transaction prices and improving supply conditions, the ongoing chip shortage remains a challenge. Total sales in 2022 are expected at 15.4 million units.

Positive

• Slight decrease in new vehicle transaction prices in January 2022, suggesting a potential market adjustment.
• Cautious optimism due to increased inventory levels and a small sales increase compared to the end of last year.

Negative

• Expected sales decline of 9% year-over-year, indicating ongoing market challenges.
• Continued impact of the chip shortage on the automotive industry throughout 2022.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 27, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,006,325 units in January 2022, down 9% from a year ago and down 7% from December 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 15.3 million, down 9% from January 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 893,077 units, down 10% from a year ago and down 8% from December 2021.

"After nine months of consecutive increases in new vehicle transaction prices, we are finally seeing a slight decrease in January. While December often represents a peak due to a richer vehicle mix, at the brand level the declines could also point to a slight recovery in supply. As the supply of chips recovers we expect to see manufacturers balance their vehicle mix back to historic norms," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, industry conditions remain volatile and we'll need to see these and other trends continue for several months, which will likely take the bulk of the year."

"Last month we saw industry sales decline 25% year-over-year, this month we are expecting sales to be down 9%. We're cautiously optimistic due to the slight sales increase this month compared to the end of last year along with the small uptick in inventory, however the chip shortage will continue to affect the industry in 2022," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for January 2022 are expected to be down 9% from a year ago and down 7% from December 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for January 2022 are expected to be down 5% from a year ago and on par with December 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 57% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 16% from a year ago and down about 2% from December 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 9% from a year ago at 15.3 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for January 2022 are expected to reach 2.9 million, down 9% from a year ago and down 2% from December 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for January 2022 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 70 months.
• Full year 2022 sales are expected at 15.4 million units

 

Total Industry Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	31,232	19,740	42,528	58.2%	58.2%	-26.6%	-17.4%
Daimler	24,112	25,268	31,932	-4.6%	-4.6%	-24.5%	-15.0%
Ford	147,635	142,577	172,257	3.5%	3.5%	-14.3%	-3.6%
GM	131,911	201,954	163,990	-34.7%	-34.7%	-19.6%	-9.5%
Honda	81,359	92,225	105,068	-11.8%	-11.8%	-22.6%	-12.9%
Hyundai	50,297	46,208	56,339	8.8%	8.8%	-10.7%	0.4%
Kia	38,926	44,965	48,506	-13.4%	-13.4%	-19.8%	-9.7%
Nissan	61,977	71,081	77,949	-12.8%	-12.8%	-20.5%	-10.6%
Stellantis	124,901	134,406	155,138	-7.1%	-7.1%	-19.5%	-9.4%
Subaru	47,403	46,400	51,146	2.2%	2.2%	-7.3%	4.3%
Tesla	36,300	24,700	47,253	47.0%	47.0%	-23.2%	-13.6%
Toyota	150,197	167,936	173,847	-10.6%	-10.6%	-13.6%	-2.8%
Volkswagen Group	35,482	44,953	48,011	-21.1%	-21.1%	-26.1%	-16.9%
Industry	1,006,325	1,109,578	1,220,129	-9.3%	-9.3%	-17.5%	-7.2%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	30,667	18,855	41,797	62.6%	62.6%	-26.6%	-17.5%
Daimler	23,066	24,264	31,279	-4.9%	-4.9%	-26.3%	-17.0%
Ford	111,651	117,760	139,716	-5.2%	-5.2%	-20.1%	-10.1%
GM	108,071	177,847	142,878	-39.2%	-39.2%	-24.4%	-14.9%
Honda	80,331	91,603	104,627	-12.3%	-12.3%	-23.2%	-13.6%
Hyundai	49,163	42,147	55,737	16.6%	16.6%	-11.8%	-0.8%
Kia	34,834	42,764	46,701	-18.5%	-18.5%	-25.4%	-16.1%
Nissan	53,802	55,905	64,355	-3.8%	-3.8%	-16.4%	-5.9%
Stellantis	105,465	112,244	128,515	-6.0%	-6.0%	-17.9%	-7.7%
Subaru	46,149	45,357	49,239	1.7%	1.7%	-6.3%	5.4%
Tesla	36,115	24,700	47,237	46.2%	46.2%	-23.5%	-14.0%
Toyota	141,259	156,997	153,815	-10.0%	-10.0%	-8.2%	3.3%
Volkswagen Group	34,693	39,304	47,346	-11.7%	-11.7%	-26.7%	-17.6%
Industry	893,077	990,079	1,092,517	-9.8%	-9.8%	-18.3%	-8.0%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	885	731	-36.2%	-36.2%	-22.7%	-13.1%
Daimler	1,046	1,004	653	4.2%	4.2%	60.1%	80.2%
Ford	35,984	24,817	32,541	45.0%	45.0%	10.6%	24.4%
GM	23,840	24,107	21,112	-1.1%	-1.1%	12.9%	27.0%
Honda	1,028	622	441	65.2%	65.2%	133.3%	162.4%
Hyundai	1,134	4,061	602	-72.1%	-72.1%	88.3%	111.8%
Kia	4,092	2,201	1,805	85.9%	85.9%	126.8%	155.1%
Nissan	8,175	15,176	13,594	-46.1%	-46.1%	-39.9%	-32.3%
Stellantis	19,436	22,162	26,623	-12.3%	-12.3%	-27.0%	-17.9%
Subaru	1,254	1,043	1,907	20.2%	20.2%	-34.2%	-26.0%
Tesla	185	-	16			1048.3%	1191.9%
Toyota	8,938	10,939	20,032	-18.3%	-18.3%	-55.4%	-49.8%
Volkswagen Group	789	5,649	665	-86.0%	-86.0%	18.6%	33.5%
Industry	113,248	119,499	127,612	-5.2%	-5.2%	-11.3%	-0.2%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.8%	4.5%	1.7%	-59.6%	5.2%
Daimler	4.3%	4.0%	2.0%	9.2%	112.1%
Ford	24.4%	17.4%	18.9%	40.0%	29.0%
GM	18.1%	11.9%	12.9%	51.4%	40.4%
Honda	1.3%	0.7%	0.4%	87.3%	201.2%
Hyundai	2.3%	8.8%	1.1%	-74.3%	110.9%
Kia	10.5%	4.9%	3.7%	114.8%	182.6%
Nissan	13.2%	21.4%	17.4%	-38.2%	-24.4%
Stellantis	15.6%	16.5%	17.2%	-5.6%	-9.3%
Subaru	2.6%	2.2%	3.7%	17.7%	-29.0%
Tesla	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%		1394.8%
Toyota	6.0%	6.5%	11.5%	-8.6%	-48.4%
Volkswagen Group	2.2%	12.6%	1.4%	-82.3%	60.5%
Industry	11.3%	10.8%	10.5%	4.5%	7.6%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual
BMW	3.1%	1.8%	3.5%
Daimler	2.4%	2.3%	2.6%
Ford	14.7%	12.8%	14.1%
GM	13.1%	18.2%	13.4%
Honda	8.1%	8.3%	8.6%
Hyundai	5.0%	4.2%	4.6%
Kia	3.9%	4.1%	4.0%
Nissan	6.2%	6.4%	6.4%
Stellantis	12.4%	12.1%	12.7%
Subaru	4.7%	4.2%	4.2%
Tesla	3.6%	2.2%	3.9%
Toyota	14.9%	15.1%	14.2%
Volkswagen Group	3.5%	4.1%	3.9%
	95.6%	95.7%	96.2%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual
BMW	3.4%	1.9%	3.8%
Daimler	2.6%	2.5%	2.9%
Ford	12.5%	11.9%	12.8%
GM	12.1%	18.0%	13.1%
Honda	9.0%	9.3%	9.6%
Hyundai	5.5%	4.3%	5.1%
Kia	3.9%	4.3%	4.3%
Nissan	6.0%	5.6%	5.9%
Stellantis	11.8%	11.3%	11.8%
Subaru	5.2%	4.6%	4.5%
Tesla	4.0%	2.5%	4.3%
Toyota	15.8%	15.9%	14.1%
Volkswagen Group	3.9%	4.0%	4.3%
	95.8%	95.9%	96.4%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$60,656	$58,961	$62,883	2.9%	-3.5%
Daimler	$74,874	$63,719	$72,491	17.5%	3.3%
Ford	$49,360	$44,272	$49,910	11.5%	-1.1%
GM	$51,967	$42,996	$54,114	20.9%	-4.0%
Honda	$35,060	$30,407	$34,927	15.3%	0.4%
Hyundai	$36,100	$32,002	$35,988	12.8%	0.3%
Kia	$34,408	$29,180	$32,677	17.9%	5.3%
Nissan	$34,641	$28,736	$34,240	20.5%	1.2%
Stellantis	$52,011	$42,489	$51,565	22.4%	0.9%
Subaru	$35,659	$30,910	$35,003	15.4%	1.9%
Toyota	$40,158	$35,705	$40,372	12.5%	-0.5%
Volkswagen Group	$44,020	$39,558	$44,030	11.3%	0.0%
Industry	$43,954	$37,801	$44,715	16.3%	-1.7%
	$6,153		-$761

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$2,607	$5,178	$3,224	-49.7%	-19.1%
Daimler	$1,532	$3,948	$2,257	-61.2%	-32.1%
Ford	$1,610	$3,333	$2,205	-51.7%	-27.0%
GM	$1,519	$4,516	$1,893	-66.4%	-19.8%
Honda	$1,320	$2,307	$1,393	-42.8%	-5.2%
Hyundai	$928	$2,267	$1,197	-59.1%	-22.5%
Kia	$1,703	$2,677	$1,712	-36.4%	-0.5%
Nissan	$1,519	$3,815	$2,012	-60.2%	-24.5%
Stellantis	$1,928	$4,616	$2,103	-58.2%	-8.3%
Subaru	$881	$1,321	$1,037	-33.3%	-15.1%
Toyota	$1,054	$2,562	$1,220	-58.9%	-13.7%
Volkswagen Group	$1,882	$3,641	$2,064	-48.3%	-8.8%
Industry	$1,479	$3,435	$1,816	-56.9%	-18.5%
	-$1,956		-$337

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	4.3%	8.8%	5.1%	-51.1%	-16.2%
Daimler	2.0%	6.2%	3.1%	-67.0%	-34.3%
Ford	3.3%	7.5%	4.4%	-56.7%	-26.2%
GM	2.9%	10.5%	3.5%	-72.2%	-16.5%
Honda	3.8%	7.6%	4.0%	-50.4%	-5.5%
Hyundai	2.6%	7.1%	3.3%	-63.7%	-22.8%
Kia	4.9%	9.2%	5.2%	-46.1%	-5.5%
Nissan	4.4%	13.3%	5.9%	-67.0%	-25.4%
Stellantis	3.7%	10.9%	4.1%	-65.9%	-9.1%
Subaru	2.5%	4.3%	3.0%	-42.2%	-16.6%
Toyota	2.6%	7.2%	3.0%	-63.4%	-13.2%
Volkswagen Group	4.3%	9.2%	4.7%	-53.5%	-8.8%
Industry	3.4%	9.1%	4.1%	-63.0%	-17.1%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Jan 2022 Forecast	Jan 2021 Actual	Dec 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$44,231,667,538	$41,942,893,567	$54,557,483,352	5.5%	-18.9%

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are TrueCar's new vehicle sales expectations for January 2022?

TrueCar expects total new vehicle sales to reach 1,006,325 units in January 2022.

How much are retail deliveries projected to decline in January 2022?

Retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are anticipated to decline by 10% year-over-year, totaling 893,077 units.

What is TrueCar's estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate for January 2022?

The estimated SAAR for January 2022 is 15.3 million units.

How does January 2022's transaction price compare to previous months?

A slight decrease in transaction prices is observed in January 2022, down about 2% from December 2021.

What challenges does TrueCar mention for the automotive industry in 2022?

TrueCar highlights the continuing chip shortage as a significant challenge for the automotive industry in 2022.