TrueCar Releases Analysis of February Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar anticipates February 2022 U.S. vehicle sales at 1,071,377 units, a 10% decline year-over-year but a 7% increase from January. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is estimated at 14.2 million, down 11% from February 2021. Retail deliveries are expected to decline 12% compared to last year, totaling 935,604 units. Average transaction prices have risen by 15%, while incentive spending has dropped by 53%. The industry is stabilizing after volatility, with notable shifts in leasing and loan options for consumers.

Positive

• Total sales forecast at 1,071,377 units, indicating a 7% increase from January.
• Average transaction prices up 15% year-over-year, indicating higher vehicle value.

Negative

• Overall sales expected to decline 10% compared to February 2021.
• Retail deliveries predicted to decrease 12% year-over-year.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,071,377 units in February 2022, down 10% from a year ago and up 7% from January 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.2 million, down 11% from February 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 935,604 units, down 12% from a year ago and up 4% from January 2022.

"After a volatile 2021 in terms of pricing and supply, this month we're seeing signs of stability. From a supply standpoint, we're seeing industry new listings roughly in line with January. Additionally, from a pricing standpoint things appear to be settling into a new equilibrium with the smallest month-over-month average price change in at least a year," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"This month we are seeing the lowest levels of leasing since the onset of the pandemic when there was a proliferation of extended term loans. Historically, leasing has been the go-to option for shoppers looking for the lowest payment but over the past year we have seen that shift," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "For shoppers configuring vehicles on TrueCar we're now seeing lower average payments for 72-month loans than 36-month leases."

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for February 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and up 7% from January 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for February 2022 are expected to be up 3% from a year ago and up 30% from January 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 53% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down about 1% from January 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 11% from a year ago at 14.2 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for February 2022 are expected to reach 3.2 million, down 9% from a year ago and up 8% from January 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for February 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
  

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	24,332	26,393	24,024	-7.8%	-7.8%	1.3%	1.3%
Daimler	19,927	20,317	20,400	-1.9%	-1.9%	-2.3%	-2.3%
Ford	136,021	161,834	142,445	-16.0%	-16.0%	-4.5%	-4.5%
GM	165,610	191,846	142,574	-13.7%	-13.7%	16.2%	16.2%
Honda	82,027	106,328	73,949	-22.9%	-22.9%	10.9%	10.9%
Hyundai	58,475	50,735	51,510	15.3%	15.3%	13.5%	13.5%
Kia	46,811	48,062	42,488	-2.6%	-2.6%	10.2%	10.2%
Nissan	63,335	86,138	59,742	-26.5%	-26.5%	6.0%	6.0%
Stellantis	140,377	151,912	125,265	-7.6%	-7.6%	12.1%	12.1%
Subaru	52,002	48,300	44,158	7.7%	7.7%	17.8%	17.8%
Tesla	42,105	21,550	40,165	95.4%	95.4%	4.8%	4.8%
Toyota	167,319	184,249	158,676	-9.2%	-9.2%	5.4%	5.4%
Volkswagen Group	36,919	46,846	37,971	-21.2%	-21.2%	-2.8%	-2.8%
Industry	1,071,377	1,196,008	1,002,006	-10.4%	-10.4%	6.9%	6.9%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	23,767	25,170	23,618	-5.6%	-5.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Daimler	18,881	19,510	19,983	-3.2%	-3.2%	-5.5%	-5.5%
Ford	101,977	133,486	115,636	-23.6%	-23.6%	-11.8%	-11.8%
GM	128,488	169,301	124,119	-24.1%	-24.1%	3.5%	3.5%
Honda	80,999	105,612	73,637	-23.3%	-23.3%	10.0%	10.0%
Hyundai	54,158	46,218	50,967	17.2%	17.2%	6.3%	6.3%
Kia	42,719	45,710	40,907	-6.5%	-6.5%	4.4%	4.4%
Nissan	53,160	67,638	49,289	-21.4%	-21.4%	7.9%	7.9%
Stellantis	114,002	126,068	106,028	-9.6%	-9.6%	7.5%	7.5%
Subaru	50,748	47,214	42,512	7.5%	7.5%	19.4%	19.4%
Tesla	41,920	21,550	40,151	94.5%	94.5%	4.4%	4.4%
Toyota	159,320	172,198	140,160	-7.5%	-7.5%	13.7%	13.7%
Volkswagen Group	36,130	40,821	37,429	-11.5%	-11.5%	-3.5%	-3.5%
Industry	935,604	1,064,728	897,288	-12.1%	-12.1%	4.3%	4.3%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	1,223	406	-53.8%	-53.8%	39.3%	39.3%
Daimler	1,046	807	417	29.6%	29.6%	150.7%	150.7%
Ford	34,044	28,348	26,809	20.1%	20.1%	27.0%	27.0%
GM	37,122	22,545	18,455	64.7%	64.7%	101.1%	101.1%
Honda	1,028	716	312	43.6%	43.6%	229.4%	229.4%
Hyundai	4,317	4,517	543	-4.4%	-4.4%	694.4%	694.4%
Kia	4,092	2,352	1,581	74.0%	74.0%	158.9%	158.9%
Nissan	10,175	18,500	10,453	-45.0%	-45.0%	-2.7%	-2.7%
Stellantis	26,375	25,844	19,237	2.1%	2.1%	37.1%	37.1%
Subaru	1,254	1,086	1,646	15.5%	15.5%	-23.8%	-23.8%
Tesla	185	-	14			1251.0%	1251.0%
Toyota	7,999	12,051	18,516	-33.6%	-33.6%	-56.8%	-56.8%
Volkswagen Group	789	6,025	542	-86.9%	-86.9%	45.7%	45.7%
Industry	135,773	131,280	104,718	3.4%	3.4%	29.7%	29.7%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	2.3%	4.6%	1.7%	-49.9%	37.5%
Daimler	5.2%	4.0%	2.0%	32.2%	156.6%
Ford	25.0%	17.5%	18.8%	42.9%	33.0%
GM	22.4%	11.8%	12.9%	90.7%	73.2%
Honda	1.3%	0.7%	0.4%	86.1%	197.0%
Hyundai	7.4%	8.9%	1.1%	-17.1%	599.8%
Kia	8.7%	4.9%	3.7%	78.6%	135.0%
Nissan	16.1%	21.5%	17.5%	-25.2%	-8.2%
Stellantis	18.8%	17.0%	15.4%	10.4%	22.3%
Subaru	2.4%	2.2%	3.7%	7.3%	-35.3%
Tesla	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%		1188.7%
Toyota	4.8%	6.5%	11.7%	-26.9%	-59.0%
Volkswagen Group	2.1%	12.9%	1.4%	-83.4%	49.8%
Industry	12.7%	11.0%	10.5%	15.5%	21.3%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual
BMW	2.3%	2.2%	2.4%
Daimler	1.9%	1.7%	2.0%
Ford	12.7%	13.5%	14.2%
GM	15.5%	16.0%	14.2%
Honda	7.7%	8.9%	7.4%
Hyundai	5.5%	4.2%	5.1%
Kia	4.4%	4.0%	4.2%
Nissan	5.9%	7.2%	6.0%
Stellantis	13.1%	12.7%	12.5%
Subaru	4.9%	4.0%	4.4%
Tesla	3.9%	1.8%	4.0%
Toyota	15.6%	15.4%	15.8%
Volkswagen Group	3.4%	3.9%	3.8%
	96.6%	95.7%	96.1%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual
BMW	2.5%	2.4%	2.6%
Daimler	2.0%	1.8%	2.2%
Ford	10.9%	12.5%	12.9%
GM	13.7%	15.9%	13.8%
Honda	8.7%	9.9%	8.2%
Hyundai	5.8%	4.3%	5.7%
Kia	4.6%	4.3%	4.6%
Nissan	5.7%	6.4%	5.5%
Stellantis	12.2%	11.8%	11.8%
Subaru	5.4%	4.4%	4.7%
Tesla	4.5%	2.0%	4.5%
Toyota	17.0%	16.2%	15.6%
Volkswagen Group	3.9%	3.8%	4.2%
	96.9%	95.8%	96.3%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$61,979	$58,682	$62,415	5.6%	-0.7%
Daimler	$75,184	$63,174	$75,051	19.0%	0.2%
Ford	$48,441	$45,349	$48,794	6.8%	-0.7%
GM	$51,574	$42,789	$51,143	20.5%	0.8%
Honda	$35,490	$30,737	$34,690	15.5%	2.3%
Hyundai	$36,989	$30,965	$35,567	19.5%	4.0%
Kia	$33,048	$29,448	$34,079	12.2%	-3.0%
Nissan	$32,948	$29,173	$34,150	12.9%	-3.5%
Stellantis	$52,661	$43,538	$52,294	21.0%	0.7%
Subaru	$34,258	$31,062	$35,310	10.3%	-3.0%
Toyota	$40,204	$35,646	$39,813	12.8%	1.0%
Volkswagen Group	$46,378	$42,923	$46,303	8.0%	0.2%
Industry	$43,776	$38,163	$44,182	14.7%	-0.9%
	$5,614		-$406

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$2,242	$5,238	$2,795	-57.2%	-19.8%
Daimler	$1,774	$3,948	$2,083	-55.1%	-14.9%
Ford	$1,786	$3,350	$2,184	-46.7%	-18.2%
GM	$1,929	$4,533	$2,046	-57.5%	-5.7%
Honda	$1,186	$2,365	$1,249	-49.9%	-5.1%
Hyundai	$1,083	$2,268	$1,136	-52.3%	-4.7%
Kia	$1,403	$2,677	$1,753	-47.6%	-19.9%
Nissan	$1,888	$3,758	$2,010	-49.8%	-6.1%
Stellantis	$2,462	$4,628	$2,498	-46.8%	-1.4%
Subaru	$897	$1,321	$986	-32.1%	-9.0%
Toyota	$981	$2,548	$1,141	-61.5%	-14.0%
Volkswagen Group	$2,020	$3,714	$1,963	-45.6%	2.9%
Industry	$1,619	$3,429	$1,804	-52.8%	-10.3%
	-$1,810		-$186

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	3.6%	8.9%	4.5%	-59.5%	-19.2%
Daimler	2.4%	6.2%	2.8%	-62.3%	-15.0%
Ford	3.7%	7.4%	4.5%	-50.1%	-17.6%
GM	3.7%	10.6%	4.0%	-64.7%	-6.5%
Honda	3.3%	7.7%	3.6%	-56.6%	-7.2%
Hyundai	2.9%	7.3%	3.2%	-60.0%	-8.4%
Kia	4.2%	9.1%	5.1%	-53.3%	-17.4%
Nissan	5.7%	12.9%	5.9%	-55.5%	-2.6%
Stellantis	4.7%	10.6%	4.8%	-56.0%	-2.1%
Subaru	2.6%	4.3%	2.8%	-38.4%	-6.2%
Toyota	2.4%	7.1%	2.9%	-65.9%	-14.8%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	8.7%	4.2%	-49.7%	2.7%
Industry	3.7%	9.0%	4.1%	-58.8%	-9.5%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Feb 2022 Forecast	Feb 2021 Actual	Jan 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$46,900,691,381	$45,642,691,291	$44,270,878,912	2.8%	5.9%

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

 

 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are TrueCar's February 2022 sales forecasts for new vehicles?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales at 1,071,377 units for February 2022, down 10% year-over-year.

How does February 2022 vehicle sales compare to January 2022?

TrueCar's February 2022 sales forecast shows a 7% increase compared to January 2022.

What is the expected average transaction price for vehicles in February 2022?

The average transaction price is projected to increase by 15% year-over-year.

What are the trends in leasing and loan options reported by TrueCar?

TrueCar reports a decline in leasing, with lower monthly payments for 72-month loans compared to 36-month leases.

What is the estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales in February 2022?

The estimated SAAR for February 2022 is 14.2 million, down 11% from February 2021.