TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales up 16% for June 2021

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts that total new vehicle sales will hit 1,287,536 units in June 2021, marking a 16% increase year-over-year but a 16% decrease from May 2021. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is estimated at 15.2 million, up from 13.0 million in June 2020. Retail deliveries, excluding fleet sales, are expected to be 1,133,299 units, an 11% increase year-over-year but a 17% decline from the previous month. The ongoing chip shortage is affecting inventory levels, resulting in lower incentives and higher transaction prices.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales expected to rise 16% year-over-year.
• Retail deliveries of new cars projected to increase 11% compared to last year.
• SAAR is forecasted at 15.2 million, showing significant recovery from last year.

Negative

• Sales down 16% compared to May 2021, indicating possible market weakness.
• Chip shortage continues to impact inventory, limiting sales potential.
• Incentives decreased by 33%, which may deter some buyers.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 30, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,287,536 units in June 2021, up 16% from a year ago but down 16% vs. May 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.2 million, bouncing back from 13.0 million SAAR in June 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,133,299 units, an increase of 11% from a year ago and decrease of 17% from May 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"We have been closely watching declining levels of new car inventory since the beginning of the year but until recently sales have remained strong due to overwhelming demand.  We still expect June to show strong gains compared to a year ago but we are seeing some softening compared to prior months," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "In addition to lower inventory, we continue to see a sharp downward trend in incentives and a corresponding increase in transaction prices which could sway some shoppers to remain on the fence this month," added Woolard.

"The chip shortage has complicated OEM operations in terms of shifting priorities around what vehicles to build and where to send them.  Looking at the second quarter compared to first quarter, we see large shifts in market share with the biggest benefactors being Honda, Hyundai and Kia," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Not all brands have been impacted equally, but the common denominator is that everyone wishes they had more vehicles to sell in the current environment."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total retail sales for June 2021 are expected to be up 16% from a year ago and down 16% from May 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for June 2021 are expected to be up 73% from a year ago and down 1% from May 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 33% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and up 2% from May 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to increase 17% from a year ago from 13.0 million units to 15.2 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for June 2021 are expected to reach 4.0 million, up 9% from a year ago and even with May 2021. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for June 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

June 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	32,204	24,917	39,204	29.2%	29.2%	-17.9%	-14.6%
Daimler	24,075	26,681	29,145	-9.8%	-9.8%	-17.4%	-14.1%
Ford	112,307	157,951	160,520	-28.9%	-28.9%	-30.0%	-27.2%
GM	203,511	175,770	240,095	15.8%	15.8%	-15.2%	-11.8%
Honda	144,989	114,774	176,815	26.3%	26.3%	-18.0%	-14.7%
Hyundai	77,752	51,564	93,745	50.8%	50.8%	-17.1%	-13.7%
Kia	67,006	47,870	80,298	40.0%	40.0%	-16.6%	-13.2%
Nissan	85,474	65,290	110,374	30.9%	30.9%	-22.6%	-19.5%
Stellantis	147,000	137,902	182,966	6.6%	6.6%	-19.7%	-16.4%
Subaru	46,380	53,910	56,558	-14.0%	-14.0%	-18.0%	-14.7%
Tesla	23,562	11,150	28,790	111.3%	111.3%	-18.2%	-14.9%
Toyota	201,599	149,445	241,003	34.9%	34.9%	-16.3%	-13.0%
Volkswagen Group	59,281	45,831	72,527	29.3%	29.3%	-18.3%	-15.0%
Industry	1,287,536	1,113,464	1,586,748	15.6%	15.6%	-18.9%	-15.6%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	31,038	24,466	38,534	26.9%	26.9%	-19.5%	-16.2%
Daimler	22,681	25,275	28,549	-10.3%	-10.3%	-20.6%	-17.4%
Ford	87,304	127,947	130,583	-31.8%	-31.8%	-33.1%	-30.5%
GM	163,665	155,853	209,419	5.0%	5.0%	-21.8%	-18.7%
Honda	142,378	113,881	176,073	25.0%	25.0%	-19.1%	-15.9%
Hyundai	71,545	50,397	88,278	42.0%	42.0%	-19.0%	-15.7%
Kia	59,466	46,652	77,311	27.5%	27.5%	-23.1%	-20.0%
Nissan	71,012	55,431	91,089	28.1%	28.1%	-22.0%	-18.9%
Stellantis	126,944	125,004	153,403	1.6%	1.6%	-17.2%	-13.9%
Subaru	45,535	52,363	54,449	-13.0%	-13.0%	-16.4%	-13.0%
Tesla	23,388	11,150	28,780	109.8%	109.8%	-18.7%	-15.5%
Toyota	176,279	143,753	212,734	22.6%	22.6%	-17.1%	-13.8%
Volkswagen Group	57,996	45,379	71,476	27.8%	27.8%	-18.9%	-15.6%
Industry	1,133,299	1,024,374	1,424,931	10.6%	10.6%	-20.5%	-17.3%
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	1,167	451	670	158.7%	158.7%	74.1%	81.1%
Daimler	1,394	1,406	596	-0.9%	-0.9%	133.8%	143.2%
Ford	25,003	30,004	29,937	-16.7%	-16.7%	-16.5%	-13.1%
GM	39,846	19,917	30,676	100.1%	100.1%	29.9%	35.1%
Honda	2,612	893	742	192.5%	192.5%	252.0%	266.1%
Hyundai	6,207	1,167	5,467	431.7%	431.7%	13.5%	18.1%
Kia	7,540	1,218	2,987	518.9%	518.9%	152.4%	162.5%
Nissan	14,462	9,859	19,285	46.7%	46.7%	-25.0%	-22.0%
Stellantis	20,056	12,898	29,563	55.5%	55.5%	-32.2%	-29.4%
Subaru	845	1,547	2,109	-45.4%	-45.4%	-59.9%	-58.3%
Tesla	174	-	10			1671.5%	1742.3%
Toyota	25,320	5,692	28,269	344.8%	344.8%	-10.4%	-6.8%
Volkswagen Group	1,285	452	1,051	184.2%	184.2%	22.3%	27.2%
Industry	154,237	89,090	161,817	73.1%	73.1%	-4.7%	-0.9%
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	3.6%	1.8%	1.7%	100.2%	112.0%
Daimler	5.8%	5.3%	2.0%	9.8%	183.1%
Ford	22.3%	19.0%	18.6%	17.2%	19.4%
GM	19.6%	11.3%	12.8%	72.8%	53.2%
Honda	1.8%	0.8%	0.4%	131.5%	329.3%
Hyundai	8.0%	2.3%	5.8%	252.6%	36.9%
Kia	11.3%	2.5%	3.7%	342.1%	202.5%
Nissan	16.9%	15.1%	17.5%	12.0%	-3.2%
Stellantis	13.6%	9.4%	16.2%	45.9%	-15.6%
Subaru	1.8%	2.9%	3.7%	-36.5%	-51.1%
Tesla	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%		2064.5%
Toyota	12.6%	3.8%	11.7%	229.8%	7.1%
Volkswagen Group	2.2%	1.0%	1.4%	119.7%	49.6%
Industry	12.0%	8.0%	10.2%	49.7%	17.5%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual
BMW	2.5%	2.2%	2.5%
Daimler	1.9%	2.4%	1.8%
Ford	8.7%	14.2%	10.1%
GM	15.8%	15.8%	15.1%
Honda	11.3%	10.3%	11.1%
Hyundai	6.0%	4.6%	5.9%
Kia	5.2%	4.3%	5.1%
Nissan	6.6%	5.9%	7.0%
Stellantis	11.4%	12.4%	11.5%
Subaru	3.6%	4.8%	3.6%
Tesla	1.8%	1.0%	1.8%
Toyota	15.7%	13.4%	15.2%
Volkswagen Group	4.6%	4.1%	4.6%
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual
BMW	2.7%	2.4%	2.7%
Daimler	2.0%	2.5%	2.0%
Ford	7.7%	12.5%	9.2%
GM	14.4%	15.2%	14.7%
Honda	12.6%	11.1%	12.4%
Hyundai	6.3%	4.9%	6.2%
Kia	5.2%	4.6%	5.4%
Nissan	6.3%	5.4%	6.4%
Stellantis	11.2%	12.2%	10.8%
Subaru	4.0%	5.1%	3.8%
Tesla	2.1%	1.1%	2.0%
Toyota	15.6%	14.0%	14.9%
Volkswagen Group	5.1%	4.4%	5.0%
ATP
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$58,833	$58,915	$58,376	-0.1%	0.8%
Daimler	$58,215	$59,752	$60,160	-2.6%	-3.2%
Ford	$45,195	$43,368	$40,836	4.2%	10.7%
GM	$44,361	$39,838	$43,878	11.4%	1.1%
Honda	$31,254	$30,154	$31,322	3.6%	-0.2%
Hyundai	$30,415	$28,969	$29,871	5.0%	1.8%
Kia	$28,032	$24,849	$28,398	12.8%	-1.3%
Nissan	$31,177	$28,718	$30,732	8.6%	1.4%
Stellantis	$47,550	$42,381	$46,081	12.2%	3.2%
Subaru	$31,876	$30,228	$30,544	5.5%	4.4%
Toyota	$35,606	$34,161	$34,831	4.2%	2.2%
Volkswagen Group	$41,801	$38,808	$42,415	7.7%	-1.4%
Industry	$38,221	$36,489	$37,399	4.7%	2.2%
Incentives
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,415	$5,862	$4,814	-24.7%	-8.3%
Daimler	$3,533	$5,675	$3,650	-37.7%	-3.2%
Ford	$2,158	$4,311	$2,334	-49.9%	-7.5%
GM	$4,070	$5,682	$4,535	-28.4%	-10.3%
Honda	$1,874	$2,639	$2,133	-29.0%	-12.2%
Hyundai	$1,722	$2,509	$2,019	-31.4%	-14.7%
Kia	$2,336	$3,779	$2,483	-38.2%	-5.9%
Nissan	$3,747	$4,842	$3,698	-22.6%	1.3%
Stellantis	$3,159	$5,010	$3,892	-36.9%	-18.8%
Subaru	$1,203	$1,747	$1,299	-31.1%	-7.4%
Toyota	$1,886	$2,700	$2,246	-30.2%	-16.0%
Volkswagen Group	$3,646	$4,340	$3,846	-16.0%	-5.2%
Industry	$2,751	$4,076	$3,055	-32.5%	-10.0%
Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.5%	9.9%	8.2%	-24.6%	-9.0%
Daimler	6.1%	9.5%	6.1%	-36.1%	0.0%
Ford	4.8%	9.9%	5.7%	-52.0%	-16.4%
GM	9.2%	14.3%	10.3%	-35.7%	-11.2%
Honda	6.0%	8.8%	6.8%	-31.5%	-12.0%
Hyundai	5.7%	8.7%	6.8%	-34.6%	-16.2%
Kia	8.3%	15.2%	8.7%	-45.2%	-4.7%
Nissan	12.0%	16.9%	12.0%	-28.7%	-0.1%
Stellantis	6.6%	11.8%	8.4%	-43.8%	-21.3%
Subaru	3.8%	5.8%	4.3%	-34.7%	-11.2%
Toyota	5.3%	7.9%	6.4%	-33.0%	-17.9%
Volkswagen Group	8.7%	11.2%	9.1%	-22.0%	-3.8%
Industry	7.2%	11.2%	8.2%	-35.6%	-11.9%
Revenue
Manufacturer	Jun 2021 Forecast	Jun 2020 Actual	May 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$49,210,883,063	$40,629,617,196	$59,342,414,537	21.1%	-17.1%

 

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q2 2021	Q2 2020	Q1 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	103,360	53,029	77,718	94.9%	94.9%	33.0%	27.8%
Daimler	77,974	58,917	70,236	32.3%	32.3%	11.0%	6.7%
Ford	469,890	432,317	517,711	8.7%	8.7%	-9.2%	-12.8%
GM	682,425	489,264	639,406	39.5%	39.5%	6.7%	2.6%
Honda	478,286	293,502	347,091	63.0%	63.0%	37.8%	32.4%
Hyundai	252,314	145,307	175,352	73.6%	73.6%	43.9%	38.3%
Kia	217,481	125,392	159,550	73.4%	73.4%	36.3%	31.0%
Nissan	294,980	177,328	285,553	66.3%	66.3%	3.3%	-0.7%
Stellantis	497,629	368,674	467,285	35.0%	35.0%	6.5%	2.3%
Subaru	164,327	136,518	160,426	20.4%	20.4%	2.4%	-1.6%
Tesla	68,952	25,500	69,300	170.4%	170.4%	-0.5%	-4.4%
Toyota	680,691	398,029	608,670	71.0%	71.0%	11.8%	7.5%
Volkswagen Group	202,707	115,911	161,510	74.9%	74.9%	25.5%	20.6%
Industry	4,386,442	2,936,014	3,910,569	49.4%	49.4%	12.2%	7.8%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q2 2021	Q2 2020	Q1 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	99,615	51,771	72,760	92.4%	92.4%	36.9%	31.6%
Daimler	73,459	56,977	67,872	28.9%	28.9%	8.2%	4.0%
Ford	365,278	353,531	400,049	3.3%	3.3%	-8.7%	-12.2%
GM	548,811	436,702	538,643	25.7%	25.7%	1.9%	-2.1%
Honda	469,672	290,458	342,284	61.7%	61.7%	37.2%	31.9%
Hyundai	232,172	141,757	160,915	63.8%	63.8%	44.3%	38.7%
Kia	193,008	122,163	135,461	58.0%	58.0%	42.5%	36.9%
Nissan	245,070	151,039	198,975	62.3%	62.3%	23.2%	18.4%
Stellantis	429,734	325,670	386,483	32.0%	32.0%	11.2%	6.9%
Subaru	161,333	133,629	152,898	20.7%	20.7%	5.5%	1.4%
Tesla	68,443	25,253	68,892	171.0%	171.0%	-0.7%	-4.5%
Toyota	595,200	385,981	538,221	54.2%	54.2%	10.6%	6.3%
Volkswagen Group	198,312	114,244	144,757	73.6%	73.6%	37.0%	31.7%
Industry	3,860,980	2,698,065	3,341,830	43.1%	43.1%	15.5%	11.0%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q2 2021	Q2 2020	Q1 2021
BMW	2.4%	1.8%	2.0%
Daimler	1.8%	2.0%	1.8%
Ford	10.7%	14.7%	13.2%
GM	15.6%	16.7%	16.4%
Honda	10.9%	10.0%	8.9%
Hyundai	5.8%	4.9%	4.5%
Kia	5.0%	4.3%	4.1%
Nissan	6.7%	6.0%	7.3%
Stellantis	11.3%	12.6%	11.9%
Subaru	3.7%	4.6%	4.1%
Tesla	1.6%	0.9%	1.8%
Toyota	15.5%	13.6%	15.6%
Volkswagen Group	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q2 2021	Q2 2020	Q1 2021
BMW	2.6%	1.9%	2.2%
Daimler	1.9%	2.1%	2.0%
Ford	9.5%	13.1%	12.0%
GM	14.2%	16.2%	16.1%
Honda	12.2%	10.8%	10.2%
Hyundai	6.0%	5.3%	4.8%
Kia	5.0%	4.5%	4.1%
Nissan	6.3%	5.6%	6.0%
Stellantis	11.1%	12.1%	11.6%
Subaru	4.2%	5.0%	4.6%
Tesla	1.8%	0.9%	2.1%
Toyota	15.4%	14.3%	16.1%
Volkswagen Group	5.1%	4.2%	4.3%
ATP
Manufacturer	Q2 2021	Q2 2020	Q1 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$58,846	$59,422	$59,429	-1.0%		-1.0%
Daimler	$59,848	$59,899	$61,827	-0.1%		-3.2%
Ford	$42,999	$43,424	$43,983	-1.0%		-2.2%
GM	$43,593	$40,079	$41,539	8.8%		4.9%
Honda	$31,376	$30,070	$31,549	4.3%		-0.5%
Hyundai	$29,740	$28,642	$30,114	3.8%		-1.2%
Kia	$28,237	$25,009	$28,328	12.9%		-0.3%
Nissan	$30,709	$28,789	$29,419	6.7%		4.4%
Stellantis	$45,974	$42,259	$42,751	8.8%		7.5%
Subaru	$30,908	$30,481	$30,485	1.4%		1.4%
Toyota	$35,089	$34,336	$34,706	2.2%		1.1%
Volkswagen Group	$43,035	$40,319	$43,780	6.7%		-1.7%
Industry	$37,639	$36,584	$37,493	2.9%		0.4%
Incentives
Manufacturer	Q2 2021	Q2 2020	Q1 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$4,708	$6,043	$5,124	-22.1%		-8.1%
Daimler	$3,660	$6,357	$4,184	-42.4%		-12.5%
Ford	$2,467	$4,369	$3,513	-43.5%		-29.8%
GM	$4,424	$5,752	$4,761	-23.1%		-7.1%
Honda	$2,100	$2,758	$2,371	-23.9%		-11.5%
Hyundai	$2,057	$2,602	$2,453	-20.9%		-16.1%
Kia	$2,464	$3,818	$2,816	-35.5%		-12.5%
Nissan	$3,739	$4,791	$3,774	-22.0%		-0.9%
Stellantis	$3,648	$5,256	$4,636	-30.6%		-21.3%
Subaru	$1,278	$1,749	$1,349	-26.9%		-5.2%
Toyota	$2,218	$2,708	$2,658	-18.1%		-16.5%
Volkswagen Group	$3,808	$4,419	$3,942	-13.8%		-3.4%
Industry	$3,016	$4,147	$3,517	-27.3%		-14.3%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What is TrueCar's sales forecast for June 2021?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,287,536 units in June 2021.

How much did TrueCar predict retail deliveries to increase in June 2021?

Retail deliveries are expected to increase by 11% year-over-year.

What is the forecasted SAAR for June 2021 according to TrueCar?

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is estimated to be 15.2 million.

What impacts are affecting vehicle sales according to TrueCar?

A chip shortage is affecting inventory levels, resulting in lower incentives and higher transaction prices.

How does TrueCar's June 2021 forecast compare to May 2021?

The forecast shows a 16% decrease in sales compared to May 2021.