TrueCar Forecasts Third Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for July 2021

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales of 1,292,064 units in July 2021, reflecting a 1% increase year-over-year but an 8% decrease compared to June 2021. The estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is 14.7 million. Retail deliveries are expected at 1,171,277 units, roughly stable year-over-year but down 7% from June. Transaction prices are projected to rise 5% year-over-year, indicating pressure on new car inventory and increased used car prices.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales expected to rise by 1% YoY.
• Average transaction price projected to increase by 5% YoY.

Negative

• Sales forecast down by 8% compared to June 2021.
• Retail deliveries expected to decline by 7% from June 2021.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,292,064 units in July 2021, up just 1% from a year ago but down 8% vs. June 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.7 million, staying on par with July 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,171,277 units, about even with a year ago and a decrease of 7% from June 2021. 

"Increasing pressure on new car inventory continues to drive the car buying landscape in July. Lower inventory is likely creating a drag on sales and driving up transaction prices. It is also leading to more would-be new car buyers opting for used cars, which in turn is contributing to the surge in used car prices," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, there are still deals out there, and TrueCar is a great way to navigate the current landscape and cast a wider net to find those deals," added Woolard.

"In July we expect to see things continue to cool since the recent new vehicle sales peak in April. Despite cooling from recent months, many brands still show improvement compared to 2020. Volkswagen in particular is looking strong in July, propelled in part by the all-new Taos and ID.4 which are resonating well with buyers," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 1% from a year ago and down 8% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for July 2021 are expected to be up 16% from a year ago and down 14% from June 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 36% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and up .2% from June 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to remain about the same from a year ago at 14.7 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for July 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, down 4% from a year ago and about even with June 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	33,969	22,711	34,872	49.6%	44.0%	-2.6%	-9.8%
Daimler	24,576	26,850	24,347	-8.5%	-11.9%	0.9%	-6.5%
Ford	116,502	174,978	114,677	-33.4%	-35.9%	1.6%	-5.9%
GM	202,932	204,756	204,782	-0.9%	-4.6%	-0.9%	-8.2%
Honda	151,587	125,450	153,122	20.8%	16.4%	-1.0%	-8.3%
Hyundai	78,226	58,934	76,519	32.7%	27.8%	2.2%	-5.3%
Kia	68,358	52,479	68,486	30.3%	25.4%	-0.2%	-7.6%
Nissan	76,230	73,463	88,642	3.8%	-0.1%	-14.0%	-20.4%
Stellantis	140,068	157,025	136,334	-10.8%	-14.1%	2.7%	-4.9%
Subaru	45,685	51,458	42,877	-11.2%	-14.5%	6.5%	-1.3%
Tesla	23,734	15,800	22,869	50.2%	44.7%	3.8%	-3.9%
Toyota	206,520	168,791	209,721	22.4%	17.8%	-1.5%	-8.8%
Volkswagen Group	60,973	47,724	61,251	27.8%	23.0%	-0.5%	-7.8%
Industry	1,292,064	1,227,420	1,300,873	5.3%	1.4%	-0.7%	-8.0%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	33,404	22,341	34,276	49.5%	44.0%	-2.5%	-9.8%
Daimler	23,530	26,166	23,849	-10.1%	-13.4%	-1.3%	-8.6%
Ford	86,019	138,872	93,140	-38.1%	-40.4%	-7.6%	-14.5%
GM	173,961	183,945	178,935	-5.4%	-8.9%	-2.8%	-10.0%
Honda	149,962	124,387	152,480	20.6%	16.1%	-1.7%	-8.9%
Hyundai	72,518	57,530	70,650	26.1%	21.4%	2.6%	-5.0%
Kia	63,128	51,326	65,938	23.0%	18.4%	-4.3%	-11.4%
Nissan	67,581	66,400	73,163	1.8%	-2.0%	-7.6%	-14.5%
Stellantis	130,497	136,782	114,221	-4.6%	-8.1%	14.2%	5.8%
Subaru	44,840	50,436	41,278	-11.1%	-14.4%	8.6%	0.6%
Tesla	23,569	15,800	22,861	49.2%	43.6%	3.1%	-4.5%
Toyota	187,140	163,509	185,259	14.5%	10.2%	1.0%	-6.5%
Volkswagen Group	60,184	47,208	60,350	27.5%	22.8%	-0.3%	-7.7%
Industry	1,171,277	1,127,219	1,170,134	3.9%	0.1%	0.1%	-7.3%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	370	596	52.9%	47.2%	-5.2%	-12.3%
Daimler	1,046	684	498	52.9%	47.2%	110.0%	94.5%
Ford	30,483	36,106	21,537	-15.6%	-18.7%	41.5%	31.1%
GM	28,971	20,811	25,847	39.2%	34.1%	12.1%	3.8%
Honda	1,625	1,063	642	52.9%	47.2%	153.0%	134.2%
Hyundai	5,708	1,404	5,869	306.6%	291.5%	-2.7%	-10.0%
Kia	5,230	1,153	2,548	353.6%	336.8%	105.3%	90.1%
Nissan	8,649	7,063	15,479	22.5%	17.9%	-44.1%	-48.3%
Stellantis	9,571	20,243	22,113	-52.7%	-54.5%	-56.7%	-59.9%
Subaru	845	1,022	1,599	-17.3%	-20.4%	-47.1%	-51.1%
Tesla	165	-	8			2016.2%	1859.5%
Toyota	19,380	5,282	24,462	266.9%	253.3%	-20.8%	-26.6%
Volkswagen Group	789	516	901	52.9%	47.2%	-12.4%	-18.9%
Industry	120,787	100,201	130,739	20.5%	16.1%	-7.6%	-14.5%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.7%	1.6%	1.7%	2.2%	-2.7%
Daimler	4.3%	2.5%	2.0%	67.0%	108.1%
Ford	26.2%	20.6%	18.8%	26.8%	39.3%
GM	14.3%	10.2%	12.6%	40.5%	13.1%
Honda	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	26.5%	155.5%
Hyundai	7.3%	2.4%	7.7%	206.3%	-4.9%
Kia	7.7%	2.2%	3.7%	248.3%	105.7%
Nissan	11.3%	9.6%	17.5%	18.0%	-35.0%
Stellantis	6.8%	12.9%	16.2%	-47.0%	-57.9%
Subaru	1.8%	2.0%	3.7%	-6.9%	-50.4%
Tesla	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%		1939.1%
Toyota	9.4%	3.1%	11.7%	199.9%	-19.5%
Volkswagen Group	1.3%	1.1%	1.5%	19.6%	-12.1%
Industry	9.3%	8.2%	10.1%	14.5%	-7.0%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual
BMW	2.6%	1.9%	2.7%
Daimler	1.9%	2.2%	1.9%
Ford	9.0%	14.3%	8.8%
GM	15.7%	16.7%	15.7%
Honda	11.7%	10.2%	11.8%
Hyundai	6.1%	4.8%	5.9%
Kia	5.3%	4.3%	5.3%
Nissan	5.9%	6.0%	6.8%
Stellantis	10.8%	12.8%	10.5%
Subaru	3.5%	4.2%	3.3%
Tesla	1.8%	1.3%	1.8%
Toyota	16.0%	13.8%	16.1%
Volkswagen Group	4.7%	3.9%	4.7%
	95.1%	96.2%	95.2%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual
BMW	2.9%	2.0%	2.9%
Daimler	2.0%	2.3%	2.0%
Ford	7.3%	12.3%	8.0%
GM	14.9%	16.3%	15.3%
Honda	12.8%	11.0%	13.0%
Hyundai	6.2%	5.1%	6.0%
Kia	5.4%	4.6%	5.6%
Nissan	5.8%	5.9%	6.3%
Stellantis	11.1%	12.1%	9.8%
Subaru	3.8%	4.5%	3.5%
Tesla	2.0%	1.4%	2.0%
Toyota	16.0%	14.5%	15.8%
Volkswagen Group	5.1%	4.2%	5.2%
	95.3%	96.2%	95.4%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$57,024	$58,212	$58,570	-2.0%	-2.6%
Daimler	$56,048	$60,586	$56,585	-7.5%	-0.9%
Ford	$46,626	$43,304	$44,561	7.7%	4.6%
GM	$44,749	$41,068	$44,408	9.0%	0.8%
Honda	$31,149	$30,058	$31,075	3.6%	0.2%
Hyundai	$31,074	$28,808	$30,333	7.9%	2.4%
Kia	$28,085	$24,887	$27,783	12.9%	1.1%
Nissan	$31,258	$28,435	$30,945	9.9%	1.0%
Stellantis	$47,943	$42,206	$47,412	13.6%	1.1%
Subaru	$31,276	$30,292	$31,887	3.2%	-1.9%
Toyota	$35,264	$34,012	$35,398	3.7%	-0.4%
Volkswagen Group	$41,614	$40,186	$42,050	3.6%	-1.0%
Industry	$38,188	$36,432	$38,097	4.8%	0.2%

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,269	$5,479	$4,452	-22.1%	-4.1%
Daimler	$3,226	$5,560	$3,280	-42.0%	-1.6%
Ford	$2,251	$4,075	$2,479	-44.8%	-9.2%
GM	$3,336	$5,561	$4,023	-40.0%	-17.1%
Honda	$1,985	$2,661	$2,096	-25.4%	-5.3%
Hyundai	$1,720	$2,442	$1,884	-29.6%	-8.7%
Kia	$2,265	$3,711	$2,603	-39.0%	-13.0%
Nissan	$3,112	$4,556	$3,025	-31.7%	2.8%
Stellantis	$2,827	$4,763	$2,812	-40.6%	0.6%
Subaru	$1,345	$1,855	$1,395	-27.5%	-3.6%
Toyota	$1,882	$2,733	$1,916	-31.1%	-1.8%
Volkswagen Group	$3,381	$4,508	$3,421	-25.0%	-1.2%
Industry	$2,529	$3,986	$2,732	-36.5%	-7.4%

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.5%	9.4%	7.6%	-20.5%	-1.5%
Daimler	5.8%	9.2%	5.8%	-37.3%	-0.7%
Ford	4.8%	9.4%	5.6%	-48.7%	-13.2%
GM	7.5%	13.5%	9.1%	-44.9%	-17.7%
Honda	6.4%	8.9%	6.7%	-28.0%	-5.5%
Hyundai	5.5%	8.5%	6.2%	-34.7%	-10.9%
Kia	8.1%	14.9%	9.4%	-45.9%	-13.9%
Nissan	10.0%	16.0%	9.8%	-37.9%	1.8%
Stellantis	5.9%	11.3%	5.9%	-47.7%	-0.6%
Subaru	4.3%	6.1%	4.4%	-29.8%	-1.7%
Toyota	5.3%	8.0%	5.4%	-33.6%	-1.4%
Volkswagen Group	8.1%	11.2%	8.1%	-27.6%	-0.1%
Industry	6.6%	10.9%	7.2%	-39.5%	-7.6%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Jul 2021 Forecast	Jul 2020 Actual	Jun 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$49,341,554,560	$44,717,708,837	$49,559,399,807	10.3%	-0.4%

 (Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What is TrueCar's forecast for July 2021 new vehicle sales?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales of 1,292,064 units in July 2021.

How does July 2021's sales forecast compare to June 2021?

The forecast shows an 8% decrease in sales compared to June 2021.

What is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for July 2021?

The estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales in July 2021 is 14.7 million.

What is the retail delivery forecast for new vehicles in July 2021?

TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries to be approximately 1,171,277 units in July 2021.

What are the expected average transaction prices in July 2021?

The average transaction price is projected to be up 5% from the previous year.