TrueCar Forecasts Industry Retail Sales Soar 34% for the 4th Quarter

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Average Transaction Price Hits All-Time Record

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 28, 2020 – TrueCar projects total retail sales for Q4 to rise 0.6% YoY and 34.2% QoQ. In December 2020, new vehicle sales forecasted at 1,605,101 units, down 6.5% YoY. Average transaction price (ATP) sees a 5.3% increase, reaching $38,979, a record high. US revenue from new vehicle sales expected to exceed $62 billion, climbing 10.2% YoY. Despite a notable decline in total new vehicle sales for 2020, luxury brands like Tesla and Volvo thrived, highlighting a resilient market recovery amidst the pandemic.

Positive

Q4 retail sales expected to rise 0.6% YoY and 34.2% QoQ.
Average transaction price projected to increase 5.3%, reaching a record of $38,979.
US new vehicle sales revenue expected to exceed $62 billion, up 10.2% YoY.

Negative

Total new vehicle sales forecasted to decline 15% YoY for 2020.
December new vehicle sales predicted to fall 6.5% YoY.

12/28/2020 - 09:00 AM

Average Transaction Price Hits All-Time Record

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 28, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- TrueCar , Inc. projects that total retail sales for Q4 are expected to be up 0.6% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 34.2% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Total new vehicle sales will reach 1,605,101 units in December 2020, down 6.5% from a year ago, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.2 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects US retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,428,094 units, a decrease of 2.2% from a year ago, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Average transaction price (ATP) is projected to be up 5.3% or $1,950 from a year ago and up 2.6% or $988 from November 2020, setting an all-time record as the figure ticks closer to $40,000. TrueCar projects that US revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $62 billion for December 2020, up 10.2% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 35.6% from last month.

“In the final days of 2020, we can finally look in the rearview mirror and appreciate the tremendous recovery that the automotive industry has made since the pandemic derailed auto sales in March. Retail vehicle sales have nearly reached normal levels with sales down only 2.2% from last year, which is a truly impressive outcome,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “The momentum from a strong third quarter carried into the fourth quarter and solidified the industry’s comeback. Production and inventory have gone back up in the fourth quarter and, as a result, retail sales are up 34% quarter-over-quarter.”

Total new vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 14.6M, down 15% year-over-year for 2020 and new vehicle retail sales are forecasted to reach 12.7M, down 8% compared with 2019. Used vehicle sales are forecasted to reach 38.4M for 2020, down 6% year-over-year.

Insights from TrueCar’s end-of-year forecast by brand:

Three brands increased volume in 2020 (Tesla, Volvo, and Alfa Romeo) --- all luxury brands.
Volvo moved up the most in the rankings, up four places from 27 to 23.
Tesla, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz, and Lincoln each moved up two spots.
Tesla surpassed Audi sales to become the #4 luxury brand.

“Luxury vehicle sales were an unexpected sales story for 2020, with higher-income Americans, some of whom were not as financially impacted by the pandemic, delivering strong luxury vehicle purchases this year,” added Woolard. “Brands such as Tesla, Volvo, and Alfa Romeo increased their volume year-over-year, and even Lamborghini broke sales records in 2020.”

Additional Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

Total retail sales for December 2020 are expected to be down 2.2% from a year ago and up 6% from November 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for December 2020 are expected to be down 31.3% from a year ago and up 34.3% from November 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Average transaction price is projected to be up 5.3% or $1,950 from a year ago and up 2.6% or $988 from November 2020.
Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4.4% from a year ago from 16.9 million units to 16.2 million units.
Used vehicle sales for December 2020 are expected to reach 3.1 million, up 6% from a year ago and up 7% from November 2020.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.0%.

“Average transaction price has continued to increase month-over-month this year and set a record in December, with the average new vehicle in the US costing $38,979. This is a notable increase of almost $1,000 from last month,” said Alain Nana-Sinkam, Vice President of Strategic Initiatives at TrueCar. “New vehicle buyers are gravitating toward luxury brands such as Porsche, Audi, BMW, and Mercedes. These brands are experiencing some of the biggest increases in their average transaction price month-over-month.”

Quarterly Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

Total unit sales for Q4 are expected to be down 3.8% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 4.5% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Total retail sales for Q4 are expected to be up 0.6% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 34.2% from Q3 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

December 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

Dec 2020 Forecast

Dec 2019 Actual

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