TrueCar Forecasts Fourth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for August 2021

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. forecasts August 2021 new vehicle sales at 1,212,399 units, down 4% year-over-year but up 1% from July 2021. The estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales is 14.4 million, a 4% decline from last year. U.S. retail deliveries are expected to be 1,077,701 units, down 7% year-over-year. The chip shortage continues to impact vehicle availability, leading to historically low incentive spending. Despite declines, some brands like Toyota saw year-over-year increases. Average transaction prices are projected to rise 6% year-over-year.

Positive

• Fleet sales are expected to increase by 30% year-over-year.
• Average transaction price projected to increase by 6% year-over-year.

Negative

• Total vehicle sales expected to decline by 4% year-over-year.
• Retail deliveries projected to decrease by 7% year-over-year.
• Incentive spending down 39% compared to last year.
• Chip shortage continues to restrict vehicle availability.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,212,399 units in August 2021, down 4% from a year ago but up 1% vs. July 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.4 million, down 4% from August 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,077,701 units, down 7% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.

"The chip shortage continues to be the driving force behind vehicle availability, creating the lowest average incentive spending since 2013¹," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Continued strong demand is creating an environment where vehicles are selling extremely quickly. About a third of vehicles are selling within a week of arriving on the dealer lot, compared to just 18% last year," added Woolard. 

"Though new vehicle sales continue to decline in August, some brands saw a year-over-year increase in sales. Toyota is operating extremely well considering their inventory days' supply is roughly half the industry average. We will continue to see how they perform once their announced plant closures put additional pressure on production and inventory," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total sales for August 2021 are expected to be down 4% from a year ago and up 1% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for August 2021 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 9% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and up .5% from July 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 4% from a year ago at 14.4 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for August 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, up 6% from a year ago and about even with July 2021. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for August 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer		Aug 2021 Forecast		Aug 2020 Actual		Jul 2021 Actual		YoY % Change		YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)		MoM % Change		MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW		29,416		25,235		28,845		16.6%		21.2%		2.0%		10.1%
Daimler		22,840		23,966		24,977		-4.7%		-0.9%		-8.6%		-1.2%
Ford		122,166		184,781		118,917		-33.9%		-31.2%		2.7%		11.0%
GM		183,530		218,845		197,697		-16.1%		-12.8%		-7.2%		0.3%
Honda		133,666		135,925		135,542		-1.7%		2.3%		-1.4%		6.5%
Hyundai		69,550		59,721		73,680		16.5%		21.1%		-5.6%		1.9%
Kia		64,172		57,015		70,099		12.6%		17.1%		-8.5%		-1.1%
Nissan		64,205		73,833		80,456		-13.0%		-9.6%		-20.2%		-13.8%
Stellantis		142,791		171,519		142,065		-16.7%		-13.4%		0.5%		8.6%
Subaru		43,065		57,885		50,125		-25.6%		-22.6%		-14.1%		-7.2%
Tesla		26,425		19,000		26,200		39.1%		44.6%		0.9%		8.9%
Toyota		200,202		190,532		225,917		5.1%		9.3%		-11.4%		-4.3%
Volkswagen Group		53,295		50,275		55,754		6.0%		10.2%		-4.4%		3.2%
Industry		1,212,399		1,319,682		1,291,775		-8.1%		-4.5%		-6.1%		1.4%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer		Aug 2021 Forecast		Aug 2020 Actual		Jul 2021 Actual		YoY % Change		YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)		MoM % Change		MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW		28,851		24,827		28,359		16.2%		20.9%		1.7%		9.9%
Daimler		21,794		23,120		24,466		-5.7%		-2.0%		-10.9%		-3.8%
Ford		90,121		147,570		96,446		-38.9%		-36.5%		-6.6%		0.9%
GM		155,217		196,696		172,037		-21.1%		-17.9%		-9.8%		-2.6%
Honda		132,042		135,147		134,974		-2.3%		1.6%		-2.2%		5.7%
Hyundai		61,961		57,839		66,053		7.1%		11.4%		-6.2%		1.3%
Kia		58,942		53,802		67,491		9.6%		13.9%		-12.7%		-5.7%
Nissan		58,190		68,339		66,456		-14.9%		-11.4%		-12.4%		-5.4%
Stellantis		118,682		147,408		119,919		-19.5%		-16.3%		-1.0%		6.9%
Subaru		42,220		56,999		48,256		-25.9%		-23.0%		-12.5%		-5.5%
Tesla		26,260		19,000		26,191		38.2%		43.7%		0.3%		8.3%
Toyota		180,822		184,624		199,937		-2.1%		1.9%		-9.6%		-2.3%
Volkswagen Group		52,507		49,823		54,953		5.4%		9.6%		-4.5%		3.2%
Industry		1,077,701		1,211,579		1,158,127		-11.0%		-7.5%		-6.9%		0.5%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	408	486	38.5%	44.0%	16.1%	25.4%
Daimler	1,046	846	511	23.7%	28.6%	104.7%	121.1%
Ford	32,045	37,211	22,471	-13.9%	-10.4%	42.6%	54.0%
GM	28,313	22,149	25,660	27.8%	32.9%	10.3%	19.2%
Honda	1,625	778	568	108.9%	117.2%	186.1%	209.0%
Hyundai	7,589	1,882	7,627	303.3%	319.4%	-0.5%	7.5%
Kia	5,230	3,213	2,608	62.8%	69.3%	100.5%	116.6%
Nissan	6,015	5,494	14,000	9.5%	13.9%	-57.0%	-53.6%
Stellantis	24,109	24,111	22,146	0.0%	4.0%	8.9%	17.6%
Subaru	845	886	1,869	-4.6%	-0.8%	-54.8%	-51.2%
Tesla	165	-	9			1747.2%	1895.0%
Toyota	19,380	5,908	25,980	228.0%	241.2%	-25.4%	-19.4%
Volkswagen Group	789	452	801	74.4%	81.4%	-1.5%	6.4%
Industry	134,698	108,103	133,648	24.6%	29.6%	0.8%	8.8%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.9%	1.6%	1.7%	18.8%	13.9%
Daimler	4.6%	3.5%	2.0%	29.8%	123.9%
Ford	26.2%	20.1%	18.9%	30.3%	38.8%
GM	15.4%	10.1%	13.0%	52.4%	18.9%
Honda	1.2%	0.6%	0.4%	112.4%	190.1%
Hyundai	10.9%	3.2%	10.4%	246.3%	5.4%
Kia	8.1%	5.6%	3.7%	44.6%	119.1%
Nissan	9.4%	7.4%	17.4%	25.9%	-46.2%
Stellantis	16.9%	14.1%	15.6%	20.1%	8.3%
Subaru	2.0%	1.5%	3.7%	28.3%	-47.4%
Tesla	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%		1731.4%
Toyota	9.7%	3.1%	11.5%	212.2%	-15.8%
Volkswagen Group	1.5%	0.9%	1.4%	64.6%	3.0%
Industry	11.1%	8.2%	10.3%	35.6%	7.4%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual
BMW	2.4%	1.9%	2.2%
Daimler	1.9%	1.8%	1.9%
Ford	10.1%	14.0%	9.2%
GM	15.1%	16.6%	15.3%
Honda	11.0%	10.3%	10.5%
Hyundai	5.7%	4.5%	5.7%
Kia	5.3%	4.3%	5.4%
Nissan	5.3%	5.6%	6.2%
Stellantis	11.8%	13.0%	11.0%
Subaru	3.6%	4.4%	3.9%
Tesla	2.2%	1.4%	2.0%
Toyota	16.5%	14.4%	17.5%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	3.8%	4.3%
	95.3%	96.1%	95.2%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual
BMW	2.7%	2.0%	2.4%
Daimler	2.0%	1.9%	2.1%
Ford	8.4%	12.2%	8.3%
GM	14.4%	16.2%	14.9%
Honda	12.3%	11.2%	11.7%
Hyundai	5.7%	4.8%	5.7%
Kia	5.5%	4.4%	5.8%
Nissan	5.4%	5.6%	5.7%
Stellantis	11.0%	12.2%	10.4%
Subaru	3.9%	4.7%	4.2%
Tesla	2.4%	1.6%	2.3%
Toyota	16.8%	15.2%	17.3%
Volkswagen Group	4.9%	4.1%	4.7%
	95.4%	96.2%	95.5%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$57,757	$57,122	$56,408	1.1%	2.4%
Daimler	$67,341	$59,487	$60,768	13.2%	10.8%
Ford	$47,641	$42,342	$46,896	12.5%	1.6%
GM	$44,962	$41,745	$44,846	7.7%	0.3%
Honda	$31,557	$30,112	$31,048	4.8%	1.6%
Hyundai	$31,842	$29,082	$31,114	9.5%	2.3%
Kia	$27,674	$26,158	$27,803	5.8%	-0.5%
Nissan	$31,393	$28,419	$31,574	10.5%	-0.6%
Stellantis	$47,719	$42,440	$47,623	12.4%	0.2%
Subaru	$31,312	$30,087	$30,983	4.1%	1.1%
Toyota	$35,035	$34,087	$35,102	2.8%	-0.2%
Volkswagen Group	$42,197	$40,947	$42,273	3.1%	-0.2%
Industry	$38,520	$36,373	$38,332	5.9%	0.5%
	$2,148		$188

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,029	$5,486	$4,427	-26.6%	-9.0%
Daimler	$3,929	$5,560	$3,280	-29.3%	19.8%
Ford	$2,234	$4,023	$2,461	-44.5%	-9.2%
GM	$3,384	$5,570	$3,991	-39.2%	-15.2%
Honda	$1,945	$2,644	$2,112	-26.4%	-7.9%
Hyundai	$1,503	$2,444	$1,895	-38.5%	-20.7%
Kia	$2,034	$3,711	$2,603	-45.2%	-21.9%
Nissan	$2,283	$4,520	$3,005	-49.5%	-24.0%
Stellantis	$2,981	$4,812	$2,720	-38.1%	9.6%
Subaru	$1,192	$1,855	$1,395	-35.7%	-14.5%
Toyota	$1,825	$2,745	$1,957	-33.5%	-6.8%
Volkswagen Group	$2,799	$4,478	$3,362	-37.5%	-16.8%
Industry	$2,432	$3,969	$2,688	-38.7%	-9.5%
	-$1,537		-$256

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.0%	9.6%	7.8%	-27.4%	-11.1%
Daimler	5.8%	9.3%	5.4%	-37.6%	8.1%
Ford	4.7%	9.5%	5.2%	-50.7%	-10.7%
GM	7.5%	13.3%	8.9%	-43.6%	-15.4%
Honda	6.2%	8.8%	6.8%	-29.8%	-9.4%
Hyundai	4.7%	8.4%	6.1%	-43.8%	-22.5%
Kia	7.4%	14.2%	9.4%	-48.2%	-21.5%
Nissan	7.3%	15.9%	9.5%	-54.3%	-23.6%
Stellantis	6.2%	11.3%	5.7%	-44.9%	9.4%
Subaru	3.8%	6.2%	4.5%	-38.3%	-15.4%
Toyota	5.2%	8.1%	5.6%	-35.3%	-6.6%
Volkswagen Group	6.6%	10.9%	8.0%	-39.4%	-16.6%
Industry	6.3%	10.9%	7.0%	-42.1%	-10.0%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$46,702,106,518	$48,000,364,966	$49,516,875,483	-2.7%	-5.7%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

¹ according to Motor Intelligence

 

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What is TrueCar's forecast for new vehicle sales in August 2021?

TrueCar forecasts new vehicle sales to reach 1,212,399 units in August 2021.

How does TrueCar's August 2021 forecast compare to August 2020?

The forecast for August 2021 is a 4% decline from August 2020.

What is the estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales in August 2021?

The estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales in August 2021 is 14.4 million.

How are fleet sales expected to perform in August 2021?

Fleet sales are expected to increase by 30% year-over-year in August 2021.

What is the impact of the chip shortage on vehicle sales according to TrueCar?

The chip shortage is creating the lowest average incentive spending since 2013.