TrueCar Forecasts Fifth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales Across the Industry for September 2021

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,007,396 units in September 2021, down 25% year-over-year and down 8% from August. The estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is 12.2 million, a 25% decline from last September. Retail deliveries of new cars are expected to be 899,072 units, reflecting a 26% decrease compared to last year. Incentive spending has decreased by 42%, with average transaction prices increasing by 8%. The report highlights industry-wide challenges, particularly ongoing chip shortages impacting OEM sales.

Positive

• Average transaction price increased by 8% year-over-year.
• Retail deliveries forecasted to be 899,072 units, indicating consistent demand despite low inventory.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales projected to drop by 25% year-over-year.
• Sales expected to decline by 8% compared to August 2021.
• Incentive spend significantly down by 42%.
• GM showing a 54.2% decrease in sales compared to last year.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,007,396 units in September 2021, down 25% from a year ago and down 8% vs. August 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 12.2 million, down 25% from September 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 899,072 units, down 26% from a year ago and down 8% from August 2021.

"We are starting to see things settle into an equilibrium from a day's supply standpoint. While new vehicle inventory continues to decline, we're also seeing sales drop at a similar rate," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "But low sales do not equate to low demand. Paired with strong demand, low supply continues the trend we have seen since January of declining incentives and higher prices."

"As the industry continues facing chip shortages, it's no surprise that most OEMs are seeing a decline in sales. GM in particular is showing its lowest sales since the start of Covid-19," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total sales for September 2021 are expected to be down 25% from a year ago and down 8% from August 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for September 2021 are expected to be down 19% from a year ago and down 5% from August 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 42% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 8% from a year ago and up 2.5% from August 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 25% from a year ago at 12.2 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for September 2021 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from August 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.3%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for September 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
  

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,676	31,031	27,602	-4.4%	-4.4%	7.5%	7.5%
Daimler	16,109	22,052	20,351	-27.0%	-27.0%	-20.8%	-20.8%
Ford	145,793	189,375	123,343	-23.0%	-23.0%	18.2%	18.2%
GM	109,203	238,542	134,407	-54.2%	-54.2%	-18.8%	-18.8%
Honda	107,773	127,058	114,656	-15.2%	-15.2%	-6.0%	-6.0%
Hyundai	61,206	55,918	61,175	9.5%	9.5%	0.1%	0.1%
Kia	50,916	55,519	54,009	-8.3%	-8.3%	-5.7%	-5.7%
Nissan	53,179	73,854	67,317	-28.0%	-28.0%	-21.0%	-21.0%
Stellantis	127,773	178,807	137,926	-28.5%	-28.5%	-7.4%	-7.4%
Subaru	40,242	60,103	49,373	-33.0%	-33.0%	-18.5%	-18.5%
Tesla	23,603	20,900	23,140	12.9%	12.9%	2.0%	2.0%
Toyota	158,156	199,126	188,585	-20.6%	-20.6%	-16.1%	-16.1%
Volkswagen Group	36,440	50,482	42,704	-27.8%	-27.8%	-14.7%	-14.7%
Industry	1,007,396	1,351,643	1,095,323	-25.5%	-25.5%	-8.0%	-8.0%

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,111	30,518	27,136	-4.6%	-4.6%	7.3%	7.3%
Daimler	15,063	21,347	19,935	-29.4%	-29.4%	-24.4%	-24.4%
Ford	112,039	151,492	100,159	-26.0%	-26.0%	11.9%	11.9%
GM	95,593	204,032	116,949	-53.1%	-53.1%	-18.3%	-18.3%
Honda	106,746	126,457	114,177	-15.6%	-15.6%	-6.5%	-6.5%
Hyundai	57,256	48,426	56,590	18.2%	18.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Kia	45,686	50,554	52,000	-9.6%	-9.6%	-12.1%	-12.1%
Nissan	48,252	69,591	55,652	-30.7%	-30.7%	-13.3%	-13.3%
Stellantis	105,499	149,675	115,313	-29.5%	-29.5%	-8.5%	-8.5%
Subaru	40,037	59,292	47,532	-32.5%	-32.5%	-15.8%	-15.8%
Tesla	23,438	20,900	23,132	12.1%	12.1%	1.3%	1.3%
Toyota	144,157	189,713	166,955	-24.0%	-24.0%	-13.7%	-13.7%
Volkswagen Group	35,652	50,061	42,093	-28.8%	-28.8%	-15.3%	-15.3%
Industry	899,072	1,217,935	981,187	-26.2%	-26.2%	-8.4%	-8.4%

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	513	466	10.2%	10.2%	21.2%	21.2%
Daimler	1,046	705	416	48.4%	48.4%	151.3%	151.3%
Ford	33,754	37,883	23,184	-10.9%	-10.9%	45.6%	45.6%
GM	13,610	34,510	17,458	-60.6%	-60.6%	-22.0%	-22.0%
Honda	1,028	601	479	71.0%	71.0%	114.7%	114.7%
Hyundai	3,950	7,492	4,585	-47.3%	-47.3%	-13.8%	-13.8%
Kia	5,230	4,965	2,009	5.3%	5.3%	160.3%	160.3%
Nissan	4,927	4,263	11,665	15.6%	15.6%	-57.8%	-57.8%
Stellantis	22,274	29,132	22,613	-23.5%	-23.5%	-1.5%	-1.5%
Subaru	205	811	1,841	-74.7%	-74.7%	-88.9%	-88.9%
Tesla	165	-	8			1991.4%	1991.4%
Toyota	13,999	9,413	21,630	48.7%	48.7%	-35.3%	-35.3%
Volkswagen Group	789	421	611	87.3%	87.3%	29.1%	29.1%
Industry	108,324	133,708	114,136	-19.0%	-19.0%	-5.1%	-5.1%

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	15.2%	12.8%
Daimler	6.5%	3.2%	2.0%	103.1%	217.5%
Ford	23.2%	20.0%	18.8%	15.7%	23.2%
GM	12.5%	14.5%	13.0%	-13.9%	-4.1%
Honda	1.0%	0.5%	0.4%	101.5%	128.4%
Hyundai	6.5%	13.4%	7.5%	-51.8%	-13.9%
Kia	10.3%	8.9%	3.7%	14.9%	176.1%
Nissan	9.3%	5.8%	17.3%	60.5%	-46.5%
Stellantis	17.4%	16.3%	16.4%	7.0%	6.3%
Subaru	0.5%	1.3%	3.7%	-62.3%	-86.3%
Tesla	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%		1950.4%
Toyota	8.9%	4.7%	11.5%	87.2%	-22.8%
Volkswagen Group	2.2%	0.8%	1.4%	159.5%	51.2%
Industry	10.8%	9.9%	10.4%	8.7%	3.2%

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual
BMW	2.9%	2.3%	2.5%
Daimler	1.6%	1.6%	1.9%
Ford	14.5%	14.0%	11.3%
GM	10.8%	17.6%	12.3%
Honda	10.7%	9.4%	10.5%
Hyundai	6.1%	4.1%	5.6%
Kia	5.1%	4.1%	4.9%
Nissan	5.3%	5.5%	6.1%
Stellantis	12.7%	13.2%	12.6%
Subaru	4.0%	4.4%	4.5%
Tesla	2.3%	1.5%	2.1%
Toyota	15.7%	14.7%	17.2%
Volkswagen Group	3.6%	3.7%	3.9%
	95.3%	96.4%	95.4%

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual
BMW	3.2%	2.5%	2.8%
Daimler	1.7%	1.8%	2.0%
Ford	12.5%	12.4%	10.2%
GM	10.6%	16.8%	11.9%
Honda	11.9%	10.4%	11.6%
Hyundai	6.4%	4.0%	5.8%
Kia	5.1%	4.2%	5.3%
Nissan	5.4%	5.7%	5.7%
Stellantis	11.7%	12.3%	11.8%
Subaru	4.5%	4.9%	4.8%
Tesla	2.6%	1.7%	2.4%
Toyota	16.0%	15.6%	17.0%
Volkswagen Group	4.0%	4.1%	4.3%
	95.5%	96.2%	95.6%

ATP
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$61,391	$59,926	$59,670	2.4%	2.9%
Daimler	$64,782	$58,399	$66,211	10.9%	-2.2%
Ford	$47,532	$43,151	$47,301	10.2%	0.5%
GM	$46,722	$41,812	$44,654	11.7%	4.6%
Honda	$32,223	$30,266	$31,581	6.5%	2.0%
Hyundai	$33,488	$29,602	$32,421	13.1%	3.3%
Kia	$28,717	$26,970	$27,824	6.5%	3.2%
Nissan	$31,594	$28,393	$31,322	11.3%	0.9%
Stellantis	$48,079	$43,238	$47,189	11.2%	1.9%
Subaru	$30,293	$29,860	$31,139	1.5%	-2.7%
Toyota	$36,772	$34,014	$35,489	8.1%	3.6%
Volkswagen Group	$39,733	$40,121	$40,696	-1.0%	-2.4%
Industry	$39,540	$36,710	$38,580	7.7%	2.5%
	$2,830		$960

Incentives
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$3,246	$5,120	$4,142	-36.6%	-21.6%
Daimler	$3,039	$5,715	$3,086	-46.8%	-1.5%
Ford	$2,850	$4,539	$2,381	-37.2%	19.7%
GM	$2,314	$5,438	$2,894	-57.4%	-20.0%
Honda	$1,940	$2,468	$1,987	-21.4%	-2.4%
Hyundai	$1,310	$2,708	$1,481	-51.6%	-11.5%
Kia	$2,169	$2,991	$2,236	-27.5%	-3.0%
Nissan	$2,500	$4,491	$2,474	-44.3%	1.1%
Stellantis	$2,987	$5,079	$2,970	-41.2%	0.6%
Subaru	$1,420	$1,844	$1,329	-23.0%	6.8%
Toyota	$1,883	$2,705	$2,145	-30.4%	-12.2%
Volkswagen Group	$2,690	$4,311	$2,763	-37.6%	-2.6%
Industry	$2,326	$4,028	$2,422	-42.3%	-4.0%
	-$1,703		-$96

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	5.3%	8.5%	6.9%	-38.1%	-23.8%
Daimler	4.7%	9.8%	4.7%	-52.1%	0.7%
Ford	6.0%	10.5%	5.0%	-43.0%	19.1%
GM	5.0%	13.0%	6.5%	-61.9%	-23.6%
Honda	6.0%	8.2%	6.3%	-26.2%	-4.3%
Hyundai	3.9%	9.1%	4.6%	-57.2%	-14.4%
Kia	7.6%	11.1%	8.0%	-31.9%	-6.0%
Nissan	7.9%	15.8%	7.9%	-50.0%	0.2%
Stellantis	6.2%	11.7%	6.3%	-47.1%	-1.3%
Subaru	4.7%	6.2%	4.3%	-24.1%	9.8%
Toyota	5.1%	8.0%	6.0%	-35.6%	-15.3%
Volkswagen Group	6.8%	10.7%	6.8%	-37.0%	-0.3%
Industry	5.9%	11.0%	6.3%	-46.4%	-6.3%

Revenue
Manufacturer	Sep 2021 Forecast	Sep 2020 Actual	Aug 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$39,832,526,549	$49,618,363,778	$42,257,700,022	-19.7%	-5.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q3 2021	Q3 2020	Q2 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	85,832	78,634	105,901	9.2%	9.2%	-19.0%	-19.0%
Daimler	61,437	72,868	78,246	-15.7%	-15.7%	-21.5%	-21.5%
Ford	388,053	549,134	472,260	-29.3%	-29.3%	-17.8%	-17.8%
GM	441,307	662,143	683,696	-33.4%	-33.4%	-35.5%	-35.5%
Honda	357,971	388,433	486,419	-7.8%	-7.8%	-26.4%	-26.4%
Hyundai	196,061	174,573	251,081	12.3%	12.3%	-21.9%	-21.9%
Kia	175,024	165,013	218,961	6.1%	6.1%	-20.1%	-20.1%
Nissan	200,952	221,150	298,148	-9.1%	-9.1%	-32.6%	-32.6%
Stellantis	409,427	509,114	482,799	-19.6%	-19.6%	-15.2%	-15.2%
Subaru	139,740	169,446	160,824	-17.5%	-17.5%	-13.1%	-13.1%
Tesla	72,943	55,700	68,259	31.0%	31.0%	6.9%	6.9%
Toyota	572,658	558,449	688,813	2.5%	2.5%	-16.9%	-16.9%
Volkswagen Group	134,470	147,880	204,424	-9.1%	-9.1%	-34.2%	-34.2%
Industry	3,394,494	3,898,745	4,399,779	-12.9%	-12.9%	-22.8%	-22.8%

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q3 2021	Q3 2020	Q2 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change       (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	84,198	77,344	101,585	8.9%	8.9%	-17.1%	-17.1%
Daimler	57,447	70,633	75,214	-18.7%	-18.7%	-23.6%	-23.6%
Ford	298,211	437,933	367,942	-31.9%	-31.9%	-19.0%	-19.0%
GM	386,307	584,674	599,919	-33.9%	-33.9%	-35.6%	-35.6%
Honda	354,557	385,991	470,489	-8.1%	-8.1%	-24.6%	-24.6%
Hyundai	183,408	163,795	228,494	12.0%	12.0%	-19.7%	-19.7%
Kia	157,046	155,683	200,793	0.9%	0.9%	-21.8%	-21.8%
Nissan	182,334	204,331	235,778	-10.8%	-10.8%	-22.7%	-22.7%
Stellantis	338,053	435,172	432,993	-22.3%	-22.3%	-21.9%	-21.9%
Subaru	139,028	166,727	157,210	-16.6%	-16.6%	-11.6%	-11.6%
Tesla	72,433	55,348	67,627	30.9%	30.9%	7.1%	7.1%
Toyota	521,970	537,846	601,181	-3.0%	-3.0%	-13.2%	-13.2%
Volkswagen Group	131,559	146,473	189,819	-10.2%	-10.2%	-30.7%	-30.7%
Industry	3,029,489	3,555,541	3,908,541	-14.8%	-14.8%	-22.5%	-22.5%

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q3 2021	Q3 2020	Q2 2021
BMW	2.5%	2.0%	2.4%
Daimler	1.8%	1.9%	1.8%
Ford	11.4%	14.1%	10.7%
GM	13.0%	17.0%	15.5%
Honda	10.5%	10.0%	11.1%
Hyundai	5.8%	4.5%	5.7%
Kia	5.2%	4.2%	5.0%
Nissan	5.9%	5.7%	6.8%
Stellantis	12.1%	13.1%	11.0%
Subaru	4.1%	4.3%	3.7%
Tesla	2.1%	1.4%	1.6%
Toyota	16.9%	14.3%	15.7%
Volkswagen Group	4.0%	3.8%	4.6%
	95.3%	96.2%	95.5%

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q3 2021	Q3 2020	Q2 2021
BMW	2.8%	2.2%	2.6%
Daimler	1.9%	2.0%	1.9%
Ford	9.8%	12.3%	9.4%
GM	12.8%	16.4%	15.3%
Honda	11.7%	10.9%	12.0%
Hyundai	6.1%	4.6%	5.8%
Kia	5.2%	4.4%	5.1%
Nissan	6.0%	5.7%	6.0%
Stellantis	11.2%	12.2%	11.1%
Subaru	4.6%	4.7%	4.0%
Tesla	2.4%	1.6%	1.7%
Toyota	17.2%	15.1%	15.4%
Volkswagen Group	4.3%	4.1%	4.9%
	95.9%	96.2%	95.4%

ATP
Manufacturer	Q3 2021	Q3 2020	Q2 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$59,171	$58,537	$58,759	1.1%		0.7%
Daimler	$63,895	$59,375	$59,272	7.6%		7.8%
Ford	$47,245	$42,937	$42,846	10.0%		10.3%
GM	$45,431	$41,577	$43,628	9.3%		4.1%
Honda	$31,624	$30,157	$31,314	4.9%		1.0%
Hyundai	$32,351	$29,207	$29,730	10.8%		8.8%
Kia	$28,125	$26,111	$28,150	7.7%		-0.1%
Nissan	$31,500	$28,413	$30,644	10.9%		2.8%
Stellantis	$47,641	$42,686	$45,968	11.6%		3.6%
Subaru	$30,795	$30,057	$30,936	2.5%		-0.5%
Toyota	$35,802	$34,037	$35,034	5.2%		2.2%
Volkswagen Group	$40,892	$40,404	$43,086	1.2%		-5.1%
Industry	$38,828	$36,522	$37,613	6.3%		3.2%
	$2,306		$1,215

Incentives
Manufacturer	Q3 2021	Q3 2020	Q2 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$3,929	$5,340	$4,713	-26.4%		-16.6%
Daimler	$3,135	$5,621	$3,574	-44.2%		-12.3%
Ford	$2,569	$4,241	$2,564	-39.4%		0.2%
GM	$3,062	$5,515	$4,399	-44.5%		-30.4%
Honda	$2,013	$2,580	$2,167	-22.0%		-7.1%
Hyundai	$1,560	$2,547	$2,102	-38.7%		-25.8%
Kia	$2,336	$3,428	$2,549	-31.9%		-8.4%
Nissan	$2,661	$4,519	$3,502	-41.1%		-24.0%
Stellantis	$2,892	$4,903	$3,522	-41.0%		-17.9%
Subaru	$1,382	$1,851	$1,339	-25.3%		3.2%
Toyota	$1,992	$2,726	$2,219	-26.9%		-10.3%
Volkswagen Group	$2,939	$4,421	$3,730	-33.5%		-21.2%
Industry	$2,478	$3,997	$3,003	-38.0%		-17.5%
	-$1,519		-$525

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What is TrueCar's sales forecast for September 2021?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales to reach 1,007,396 units in September 2021.

How much have new vehicle sales declined year-over-year according to TrueCar?

New vehicle sales are projected to decrease by 25% year-over-year in September 2021.

What is the expected seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales?

The SAAR for light vehicle sales is estimated at 12.2 million, down 25% from last September.

How much are retail deliveries of new cars expected to decline in September 2021?

Retail deliveries of new cars are expected to decline by 26% year-over-year, totaling 899,072 units.

What changes have occurred in average transaction prices for vehicles?

Average transaction prices are projected to increase by 8% from a year ago.