TrueCar Forecasts December and Fourth Quarter Industry Sales Slump Amid Continuing Inventory Shortages

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts new vehicle sales will decline by 27% year-over-year to 1,144,108 units in December 2021, matching November's performance when adjusted for selling days. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is expected to be 11.9 million units, also down 27% from December 2020. Retail deliveries are set at 1,024,263 units, down 27% annually. Fleet sales are anticipated to drop by 29%, while the average transaction price will rise by 7.5%. Incentive spending decreased by 55% compared to last year, indicating tighter market conditions.

Positive

• Average transaction price projected to rise by 7.5% year-over-year.
• Used vehicle sales are expected to increase by 3% year-over-year.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales forecasted to drop 27% from December 2020.
• Retail deliveries anticipated to decline by 27% year-over-year.
• Fleet sales expected to decrease by 29% compared to last year.
• Incentive spending down 55% from last year, indicating reduced dealer support.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,144,108 units in December 2021, down 27% from a year ago and about on par with November 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 11.9 million, down 27% from December 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,024,263 units, down 27% from a year ago and on par with November 2021.

"Historically, December is a big month for the industry as OEMs and dealerships work to close out the calendar year with strong sales. The last week of the month is also typically the biggest week of the year in terms of sales volumes but it's unlikely to happen this year due to continued inventory shortages and declining incentives," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"In October we were seeing initial signs that the worst may be behind us in terms of inventory shortages. We continue to see signals of stability and in some cases, slight improvement. One such indicator, our scarcity measure, shows improvement in recent months for both new and used vehicles," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "However, questions still remain as to the trajectory of improvement we can expect to see in 2022." 

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total sales for December 2021 are expected to be down 27% from a year ago and about even with November 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for December 2021 are expected to be down 29% from a year ago and down 3% from November 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 55% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 7.5% from a year ago and up 2.5% from November 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 27% from a year ago at 11.9 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for December 2021 are expected to reach about 3 million, up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from November 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for December 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	35,546	45,594	30,441	-22.0%	-19.2%	16.8%	3.8%
Daimler	25,054	35,436	25,101	-29.3%	-26.7%	-0.2%	-11.3%
Ford	166,547	208,007	157,417	-19.9%	-17.0%	5.8%	-6.0%
GM	168,640	295,536	139,618	-42.9%	-40.8%	20.8%	7.4%
Honda	99,886	136,467	85,055	-26.8%	-24.1%	17.4%	4.4%
Hyundai	51,457	69,388	49,347	-25.8%	-23.1%	4.3%	-7.3%
Kia	53,896	53,764	45,318	0.2%	4.0%	18.9%	5.7%
Nissan	65,763	98,638	57,625	-33.3%	-30.9%	14.1%	1.4%
Stellantis	134,038	202,371	125,415	-33.8%	-31.3%	6.9%	-5.0%
Subaru	43,435	63,558	33,045	-31.7%	-29.1%	31.4%	16.8%
Tesla	36,300	26,950	33,980	34.7%	39.7%	6.8%	-5.0%
Toyota	176,491	251,256	154,139	-29.8%	-27.2%	14.5%	1.8%
Volkswagen Group	44,457	70,175	41,642	-36.6%	-34.3%	6.8%	-5.1%
Industry	1,144,108	1,619,907	1,021,312	-29.4%	-26.8%	12.0%	-0.4%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	34,981	43,492	29,911	-19.6%	-16.6%	17.0%	4.0%
Daimler	24,008	34,028	24,588	-29.4%	-26.8%	-2.4%	-13.2%
Ford	136,046	172,006	127,804	-20.9%	-18.0%	6.4%	-5.4%
GM	140,325	260,525	121,194	-46.1%	-44.1%	15.8%	2.9%
Honda	98,858	135,549	84,699	-27.1%	-24.4%	16.7%	3.7%
Hyundai	50,323	63,195	48,815	-20.4%	-17.4%	3.1%	-8.4%
Kia	49,804	51,133	43,632	-2.6%	1.0%	14.1%	1.5%
Nissan	57,684	77,741	47,586	-25.8%	-23.1%	21.2%	7.8%
Stellantis	108,394	168,731	103,610	-35.8%	-33.4%	4.6%	-7.0%
Subaru	43,230	62,129	31,813	-30.4%	-27.8%	35.9%	20.8%
Tesla	36,115	26,950	33,968	34.0%	39.0%	6.3%	-5.5%
Toyota	165,011	235,424	136,059	-29.9%	-27.3%	21.3%	7.8%
Volkswagen Group	43,668	61,261	41,069	-28.7%	-26.1%	6.3%	-5.5%
Industry	1,024,263	1,445,852	911,344	-29.2%	-26.5%	12.4%	-0.1%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	2,102	530	-73.1%	-72.1%	6.5%	-5.3%
Daimler	1,046	1,408	513	-25.7%	-22.9%	103.7%	81.1%
Ford	30,501	36,001	29,613	-15.3%	-12.1%	3.0%	-8.4%
GM	28,315	35,011	18,424	-19.1%	-16.1%	53.7%	36.6%
Honda	1,028	918	356	12.0%	16.1%	188.5%	156.4%
Hyundai	1,134	6,193	532	-81.7%	-81.0%	113.0%	89.3%
Kia	4,092	2,631	1,686	55.5%	61.3%	142.7%	115.7%
Nissan	8,079	20,897	10,039	-61.3%	-59.9%	-19.5%	-28.5%
Stellantis	25,644	33,640	21,805	-23.8%	-20.9%	17.6%	4.5%
Subaru	205	1,429	1,232	-85.7%	-85.1%	-83.4%	-85.2%
Tesla	185	-	12			1496.9%	1319.5%
Toyota	11,480	15,832	18,080	-27.5%	-24.8%	-36.5%	-43.6%
Volkswagen Group	789	8,914	573	-91.2%	-90.8%	37.8%	22.5%
Industry	119,845	174,055	109,968	-31.1%	-28.6%	9.0%	-3.1%

 

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.6%	4.6%	1.7%	-65.5%	-8.8%
Daimler	4.2%	4.0%	2.0%	5.1%	104.1%
Ford	18.3%	17.3%	18.8%	5.8%	-2.6%
GM	16.8%	11.8%	13.2%	41.7%	27.2%
Honda	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%	53.0%	145.6%
Hyundai	2.2%	8.9%	1.1%	-75.3%	104.2%
Kia	7.6%	4.9%	3.7%	55.1%	104.1%
Nissan	12.3%	21.2%	17.4%	-42.0%	-29.5%
Stellantis	19.1%	16.6%	17.4%	15.1%	10.0%
Subaru	0.5%	2.2%	3.7%	-79.0%	-87.3%
Tesla	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%		1394.8%
Toyota	6.5%	6.3%	11.7%	3.2%	-44.5%
Volkswagen Group	1.8%	12.7%	1.4%	-86.0%	29.0%
Industry	10.5%	10.7%	10.8%	-2.5%	-2.7%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual
BMW	3.1%	2.8%	3.0%
Daimler	2.2%	2.2%	2.5%
Ford	14.6%	12.8%	15.4%
GM	14.7%	18.2%	13.7%
Honda	8.7%	8.4%	8.3%
Hyundai	4.5%	4.3%	4.8%
Kia	4.7%	3.3%	4.4%
Nissan	5.7%	6.1%	5.6%
Stellantis	11.7%	12.5%	12.3%
Subaru	3.8%	3.9%	3.2%
Tesla	3.2%	1.7%	3.3%
Toyota	15.4%	15.5%	15.1%
Volkswagen Group	3.9%	4.3%	4.1%
	96.3%	96.1%	95.8%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual
BMW	3.4%	3.0%	3.3%
Daimler	2.3%	2.4%	2.7%
Ford	13.3%	11.9%	14.0%
GM	13.7%	18.0%	13.3%
Honda	9.7%	9.4%	9.3%
Hyundai	4.9%	4.4%	5.4%
Kia	4.9%	3.5%	4.8%
Nissan	5.6%	5.4%	5.2%
Stellantis	10.6%	11.7%	11.4%
Subaru	4.2%	4.3%	3.5%
Tesla	3.5%	1.9%	3.7%
Toyota	16.1%	16.3%	14.9%
Volkswagen Group	4.3%	4.2%	4.5%
	96.5%	96.3%	96.0%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$59,663	$60,439	$58,004	-1.3%	2.9%
Daimler	$68,278	$61,005	$61,724	11.9%	10.6%
Ford	$47,314	$44,133	$45,093	7.2%	4.9%
GM	$50,400	$44,801	$50,898	12.5%	-1.0%
Honda	$32,443	$30,990	$31,783	4.7%	2.1%
Hyundai	$33,985	$31,282	$33,297	8.6%	2.1%
Kia	$30,472	$28,063	$29,746	8.6%	2.4%
Nissan	$31,921	$28,876	$31,607	10.5%	1.0%
Stellantis	$50,356	$43,923	$49,928	14.6%	0.9%
Subaru	$31,846	$30,543	$31,379	4.3%	1.5%
Toyota	$36,861	$35,190	$36,696	4.7%	0.5%
Volkswagen Group	$41,234	$40,484	$40,310	1.9%	2.3%
Industry	$41,950	$39,008	$40,924	7.5%	2.5%
	$2,942		$1,026

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$2,518	$5,319	$2,786	-52.7%	-9.6%
Daimler	$3,045	$4,129	$2,427	-26.3%	25.5%
Ford	$2,522	$4,205	$2,447	-40.0%	3.1%
GM	$1,617	$5,366	$1,829	-69.9%	-11.6%
Honda	$1,270	$2,667	$1,599	-52.4%	-20.6%
Hyundai	$1,049	$2,500	$1,209	-58.0%	-13.2%
Kia	$1,639	$2,984	$1,652	-45.1%	-0.8%
Nissan	$1,764	$4,280	$1,995	-58.8%	-11.5%
Stellantis	$2,376	$4,869	$2,465	-51.2%	-3.6%
Subaru	$969	$1,427	$1,058	-32.1%	-8.4%
Toyota	$1,172	$2,805	$1,257	-58.2%	-6.8%
Volkswagen Group	$1,683	$4,004	$2,089	-58.0%	-19.4%
Industry	$1,756	$3,922	$1,904	-55.2%	-7.8%
	-$2,166		-$148

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	4.2%	8.8%	4.8%	-52.0%	-12.2%
Daimler	4.5%	6.8%	3.9%	-34.1%	13.4%
Ford	5.3%	9.5%	5.4%	-44.0%	-1.8%
GM	3.2%	12.0%	3.6%	-73.2%	-10.7%
Honda	3.9%	8.6%	5.0%	-54.5%	-22.2%
Hyundai	3.1%	8.0%	3.6%	-61.4%	-15.0%
Kia	5.4%	10.6%	5.6%	-49.4%	-3.1%
Nissan	5.5%	14.8%	6.3%	-62.7%	-12.4%
Stellantis	4.7%	11.1%	4.9%	-57.4%	-4.4%
Subaru	3.0%	4.7%	3.4%	-34.9%	-9.7%
Toyota	3.2%	8.0%	3.4%	-60.1%	-7.2%
Volkswagen Group	4.1%	9.9%	5.2%	-58.7%	-21.2%
Industry	4.2%	10.1%	4.7%	-58.4%	-10.0%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Dec 2021 Forecast	Dec 2020 Actual	Nov 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$47,995,748,449	$63,190,124,752	$41,796,340,074	-24.0%	14.8%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q4 2021	Q4 2020	Q3 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	93,996	107,299	82,064	-12.4%	-11.3%	14.5%	13.1%
Daimler	70,236	94,098	63,747	-25.4%	-24.4%	10.2%	8.8%
Ford	498,428	538,643	397,644	-7.5%	-6.3%	25.3%	23.7%
GM	441,426	767,444	443,150	-42.5%	-41.7%	-0.4%	-1.7%
Honda	282,024	366,068	345,914	-23.0%	-22.0%	-18.5%	-19.5%
Hyundai	162,865	183,943	193,522	-11.5%	-10.3%	-15.8%	-16.9%
Kia	151,281	157,755	177,014	-4.1%	-2.9%	-14.5%	-15.6%
Nissan	183,247	243,133	198,955	-24.6%	-23.7%	-7.9%	-9.1%
Stellantis	392,666	501,273	408,782	-21.7%	-20.7%	-3.9%	-5.2%
Subaru	113,297	175,382	141,552	-35.4%	-34.6%	-20.0%	-21.0%
Tesla	97,417	68,200	75,631	42.8%	44.7%	28.8%	27.2%
Toyota	477,300	660,715	565,880	-27.8%	-26.8%	-15.7%	-16.7%
Volkswagen Group	130,542	172,464	136,650	-24.3%	-23.3%	-4.5%	-5.7%
Industry	3,222,286	4,196,656	3,394,029	-23.2%	-22.2%	-5.1%	-6.3%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q4 2021	Q4 2020	Q3 2021	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	92,502	102,907	76,834	-10.1%	-9.0%	20.4%	18.8%
Daimler	67,304	89,927	60,038	-25.2%	-24.2%	12.1%	10.7%
Ford	407,147	434,988	302,539	-6.4%	-5.2%	34.6%	32.9%
GM	367,310	663,963	395,087	-44.7%	-44.0%	-7.0%	-8.2%
Honda	279,122	363,704	341,249	-23.3%	-22.3%	-18.2%	-19.3%
Hyundai	159,276	161,928	183,812	-1.6%	-0.4%	-13.3%	-14.5%
Kia	139,796	146,944	168,226	-4.9%	-3.6%	-16.9%	-18.0%
Nissan	160,735	202,108	174,178	-20.5%	-19.5%	-7.7%	-8.9%
Stellantis	317,541	426,676	348,224	-25.6%	-24.6%	-8.8%	-10.0%
Subaru	112,762	172,041	139,035	-34.5%	-33.6%	-18.9%	-19.9%
Tesla	96,921	67,770	74,905	43.0%	44.8%	29.4%	27.7%
Toyota	446,254	604,338	528,643	-26.2%	-25.2%	-15.6%	-16.7%
Volkswagen Group	128,226	155,506	133,213	-17.5%	-16.5%	-3.7%	-5.0%
Industry	2,884,753	3,744,978	3,075,886	-23.0%	-22.0%	-6.2%	-7.4%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q4 2021	Q4 2020	Q3 2021
BMW	2.9%	2.6%	2.4%
Daimler	2.2%	2.2%	1.9%
Ford	15.5%	12.8%	11.7%
GM	13.7%	18.3%	13.1%
Honda	8.8%	8.7%	10.2%
Hyundai	5.1%	4.4%	5.7%
Kia	4.7%	3.8%	5.2%
Nissan	5.7%	5.8%	5.9%
Stellantis	12.2%	11.9%	12.0%
Subaru	3.5%	4.2%	4.2%
Tesla	3.0%	1.6%	2.2%
Toyota	14.8%	15.7%	16.7%
Volkswagen Group	4.1%	4.1%	4.0%
	96.0%	96.2%	95.2%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q4 2021	Q4 2020	Q3 2021
BMW	3.2%	2.7%	2.5%
Daimler	2.3%	2.4%	2.0%
Ford	14.1%	11.6%	9.8%
GM	12.7%	17.7%	12.8%
Honda	9.7%	9.7%	11.1%
Hyundai	5.5%	4.3%	6.0%
Kia	4.8%	3.9%	5.5%
Nissan	5.6%	5.4%	5.7%
Stellantis	11.0%	11.4%	11.3%
Subaru	3.9%	4.6%	4.5%
Tesla	3.4%	1.8%	2.4%
Toyota	15.5%	16.1%	17.2%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	4.2%	4.3%
	96.2%	95.9%	95.1%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Q4 2021	Q4 2020	Q3 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$58,598	$60,034	$59,033	-2.4%		-0.7%
Daimler	$64,293	$59,016	$63,836	8.9%		0.7%
Ford	$46,190	$43,756	$47,166	5.6%		-2.1%
GM	$50,149	$43,749	$45,894	14.6%		9.3%
Honda	$32,252	$30,796	$31,458	4.7%		2.5%
Hyundai	$33,670	$30,608	$32,318	10.0%		4.2%
Kia	$29,922	$27,864	$28,002	7.4%		6.9%
Nissan	$32,065	$28,719	$31,596	11.6%		1.5%
Stellantis	$49,647	$43,610	$47,495	13.8%		4.5%
Subaru	$31,360	$30,444	$30,709	3.0%		2.1%
Toyota	$36,985	$35,149	$35,890	5.2%		3.1%
Volkswagen Group	$40,325	$39,397	$40,566	2.4%		-0.6%
Industry	$41,149	$38,137	$38,855	7.9%		5.9%
	$3,012		$2,295

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Q4 2021	Q4 2020	Q3 2021	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$2,728	$5,172	$4,071	-47.3%		-33.0%
Daimler	$2,738	$4,343	$3,183	-37.0%		-14.0%
Ford	$2,509	$4,309	$2,485	-41.8%		1.0%
GM	$1,813	$5,131	$3,201	-64.7%		-43.3%
Honda	$1,478	$2,501	$2,037	-40.9%		-27.5%
Hyundai	$1,119	$2,448	$1,594	-54.3%		-29.8%
Kia	$1,730	$2,962	$2,305	-41.6%		-24.9%
Nissan	$1,916	$4,452	$2,635	-57.0%		-27.3%
Stellantis	$2,501	$4,670	$2,951	-46.5%		-15.3%
Subaru	$1,006	$1,478	$1,311	-31.9%		-23.3%
Toyota	$1,243	$2,673	$1,969	-53.5%		-36.9%
Volkswagen Group	$1,962	$4,031	$2,904	-51.3%		-32.5%
Industry	$1,877	$3,820	$2,492	-50.9%		-24.7%
	-$1,943		-$614

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What are the new vehicle sales forecasts for TrueCar in December 2021?

TrueCar forecasts new vehicle sales to reach 1,144,108 units in December 2021, down 27% from the previous year.

What is the expected seasonally adjusted annualized rate for December 2021?

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is estimated at 11.9 million units for December 2021.

How will incentive spending change in December 2021 according to TrueCar?

Incentive spending is expected to be down 55% year-over-year in December 2021.

What is the projected average transaction price for new vehicles in December 2021?

The average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to increase by 7.5% compared to last year.

How do the retail deliveries in December 2021 compare to the previous year?

Retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to be 1,024,263 units in December 2021, down 27% from the previous year.