TrueCar Forecasts an Increased Industry Sales Pace for November 2021 as Inventory Starts to Rebound

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales in November 2021 to reach 1,073,042 units, representing a 15% year-over-year decline but a 14% increase from October 2021. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales is estimated at 13.7 million, down 12% from last year. U.S. retail deliveries are expected to hit 971,021 units, a 16% drop year-on-year but a 16% increase from the previous month. Average transaction prices are projected to rise 9% year-on-year, with incentives at their lowest since 2005.

Positive

• Forecasted retail deliveries of new cars up 16% from October 2021.
• Average transaction prices projected to rise 9% year-on-year.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales expected to be down 15% from November 2020.
• SAAR for total light vehicle sales down 12% year-over-year.
• Incentive spend down 50% from last year.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Nov. 23, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,073,042 units in November 2021, down 15% from a year ago and up 14% vs. October 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13.7 million, down 12% from November 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 971,021 units, down 16% from a year ago and up 16% from October 2021.

"We continue to see small signs of new vehicle inventory levels rebuilding on dealer lots," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, demand remains strong and continues to push new transaction prices to record levels. Average incentive levels for November are expected to be $1,895 which would be the lowest since 2005 according to Motor Intelligence historical data."

"As expected, we are seeing stronger sales performance for those brands that ramped up production levels in recent months," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Ford in particular is one of the few brands showing gains vs. last year. This is largely driven by new products such as Bronco and Bronco Sport."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total sales for November 2021 are expected to be down 15% from a year ago and up 14% from October 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for November 2021 are expected to be down 13% from a year ago and down 1% from October 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 50% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 9% from a year ago and up 2% from October 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 12% from a year ago at 13.7 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for November 2021 are expected to reach 3 million, up 2% from a year ago and down 12% from October 2021. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.5%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for November 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	35,178	31,005	28,231	13.5%	8.7%	24.6%	40.2%
Daimler	26,030	29,580	20,081	-12.0%	-15.7%	29.6%	45.8%
Ford	165,118	148,816	174,464	11.0%	6.3%	-5.4%	6.5%
GM	154,096	212,415	133,168	-27.5%	-30.5%	15.7%	30.2%
Honda	86,036	102,614	97,083	-16.2%	-19.6%	-11.4%	-0.3%
Hyundai	58,582	56,106	62,061	4.4%	0.1%	-5.6%	6.2%
Kia	40,059	47,897	52,067	-16.4%	-19.9%	-23.1%	-13.4%
Nissan	63,798	72,816	59,859	-12.4%	-16.0%	6.6%	19.9%
Stellantis	132,664	137,913	131,496	-3.8%	-7.8%	0.9%	13.5%
Subaru	31,731	50,413	36,817	-37.1%	-39.7%	-13.8%	-3.0%
Tesla	28,394	21,650	27,137	31.2%	25.7%	4.6%	17.7%
Toyota	165,367	205,523	146,670	-19.5%	-22.9%	12.7%	26.8%
Volkswagen Group	44,477	51,397	44,809	-13.5%	-17.1%	-0.7%	11.7%
Industry	1,073,042	1,214,891	1,056,866	-11.7%	-15.4%	1.5%	14.2%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	34,613	30,494	27,745	13.5%	8.8%	24.8%	40.3%
Daimler	24,984	28,634	19,670	-12.7%	-16.4%	27.0%	42.9%
Ford	133,527	119,201	141,844	12.0%	7.4%	-5.9%	5.9%
GM	140,486	181,998	116,069	-22.8%	-26.0%	21.0%	36.2%
Honda	85,008	102,126	96,676	-16.8%	-20.2%	-12.1%	-1.1%
Hyundai	54,632	48,565	57,426	12.5%	7.8%	-4.9%	7.0%
Kia	34,829	43,614	50,130	-20.1%	-23.5%	-30.5%	-21.8%
Nissan	58,759	68,623	49,421	-14.4%	-17.9%	18.9%	33.8%
Stellantis	110,376	117,599	108,813	-6.1%	-10.1%	1.4%	14.1%
Subaru	31,526	49,733	35,444	-36.6%	-39.3%	-11.1%	0.1%
Tesla	28,229	21,650	27,128	30.4%	25.0%	4.1%	17.1%
Toyota	155,633	195,915	130,055	-20.6%	-23.9%	19.7%	34.6%
Volkswagen Group	43,688	50,969	44,185	-14.3%	-17.9%	-1.1%	11.2%
Industry	971,021	1,102,639	941,060	-11.9%	-15.6%	3.2%	16.1%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	511	486	10.5%	5.9%	16.3%	30.8%
Daimler	1,046	946	411	10.6%	6.0%	154.7%	186.5%
Ford	31,591	29,615	32,620	6.7%	2.2%	-3.2%	9.0%
GM	13,610	30,417	17,099	-55.3%	-57.1%	-20.4%	-10.5%
Honda	1,028	488	407	110.8%	102.0%	152.4%	183.9%
Hyundai	3,950	7,541	4,635	-47.6%	-49.8%	-14.8%	-4.1%
Kia	5,230	4,283	1,937	22.1%	17.0%	170.0%	203.8%
Nissan	5,039	4,193	10,438	20.2%	15.2%	-51.7%	-45.7%
Stellantis	22,288	20,314	22,683	9.7%	5.1%	-1.7%	10.5%
Subaru	205	680	1,373	-69.9%	-71.1%	-85.1%	-83.2%
Tesla	165	-	9			1683.4%	1906.3%
Toyota	9,734	9,608	16,615	1.3%	-2.9%	-41.4%	-34.1%
Volkswagen Group	789	428	624	84.3%	76.6%	26.4%	42.2%
Industry	102,022	112,252	115,806	-9.1%	-12.9%	-11.9%	-0.9%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.6%	1.6%	1.7%	-2.6%	-6.7%
Daimler	4.0%	3.2%	2.0%	25.7%	96.5%
Ford	19.1%	19.9%	18.7%	-3.9%	2.3%
GM	8.8%	14.3%	12.8%	-38.3%	-31.2%
Honda	1.2%	0.5%	0.4%	151.4%	184.8%
Hyundai	6.7%	13.4%	7.5%	-49.8%	-9.7%
Kia	13.1%	8.9%	3.7%	46.0%	250.9%
Nissan	7.9%	5.8%	17.4%	37.2%	-54.7%
Stellantis	16.8%	14.7%	17.2%	14.1%	-2.6%
Subaru	0.6%	1.3%	3.7%	-52.1%	-82.7%
Tesla	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%		1604.4%
Toyota	5.9%	4.7%	11.3%	25.9%	-48.0%
Volkswagen Group	1.8%	0.8%	1.4%	113.0%	27.3%
Industry	9.5%	9.2%	11.0%	2.9%	-13.2%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual
BMW	3.3%	2.6%	2.7%
Daimler	2.4%	2.4%	1.9%
Ford	15.4%	12.2%	16.5%
GM	14.4%	17.5%	12.6%
Honda	8.0%	8.4%	9.2%
Hyundai	5.5%	4.6%	5.9%
Kia	3.7%	3.9%	4.9%
Nissan	5.9%	6.0%	5.7%
Stellantis	12.4%	11.4%	12.4%
Subaru	3.0%	4.1%	3.5%
Tesla	2.6%	1.8%	2.6%
Toyota	15.4%	16.9%	13.9%
Volkswagen Group	4.1%	4.2%	4.2%
	96.1%	96.2%	95.9%

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual
BMW	3.6%	2.8%	2.9%
Daimler	2.6%	2.6%	2.1%
Ford	13.8%	10.8%	15.1%
GM	14.5%	16.5%	12.3%
Honda	8.8%	9.3%	10.3%
Hyundai	5.6%	4.4%	6.1%
Kia	3.6%	4.0%	5.3%
Nissan	6.1%	6.2%	5.3%
Stellantis	11.4%	10.7%	11.6%
Subaru	3.2%	4.5%	3.8%
Tesla	2.9%	2.0%	2.9%
Toyota	16.0%	17.8%	13.8%
Volkswagen Group	4.5%	4.6%	4.7%
	96.4%	96.1%	96.1%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$55,952	$57,952	$57,898	-3.5%	-3.4%
Daimler	$61,142	$57,418	$62,044	6.5%	-1.5%
Ford	$46,335	$43,465	$45,955	6.6%	0.8%
GM	$49,951	$43,061	$49,026	16.0%	1.9%
Honda	$32,606	$31,164	$32,516	4.6%	0.3%
Hyundai	$33,861	$30,403	$33,674	11.4%	0.6%
Kia	$31,386	$27,827	$29,418	12.8%	6.7%
Nissan	$32,079	$28,822	$32,740	11.3%	-2.0%
Stellantis	$49,823	$44,121	$48,451	12.9%	2.8%
Subaru	$31,617	$30,463	$30,727	3.8%	2.9%
Toyota	$36,943	$34,760	$37,454	6.3%	-1.4%
Volkswagen Group	$39,104	$38,248	$39,198	2.2%	-0.2%
Industry	$41,139	$37,876	$40,383	8.6%	1.9%
	$3,263		$756

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$3,057	$5,211	$2,929	-41.3%	4.4%
Daimler	$3,184	$4,438	$2,686	-28.3%	18.5%
Ford	$2,509	$4,395	$2,560	-42.9%	-2.0%
GM	$1,941	$4,974	$2,045	-61.0%	-5.1%
Honda	$1,534	$2,460	$1,608	-37.6%	-4.6%
Hyundai	$1,173	$2,497	$1,109	-53.0%	5.8%
Kia	$1,689	$2,999	$1,929	-43.7%	-12.5%
Nissan	$2,365	$4,496	$2,022	-47.4%	17.0%
Stellantis	$2,102	$4,567	$2,697	-54.0%	-22.0%
Subaru	$878	$1,505	$997	-41.7%	-11.9%
Toyota	$1,156	$2,690	$1,317	-57.0%	-12.2%
Volkswagen Group	$2,113	$4,263	$2,177	-50.4%	-2.9%
Industry	$1,888	$3,783	$2,001	-50.1%	-5.6%
	-$1,895		-$113

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	5.5%	9.0%	5.1%	-39.2%	8.0%
Daimler	5.2%	7.7%	4.3%	-32.6%	20.3%
Ford	5.4%	10.1%	5.6%	-46.4%	-2.8%
GM	3.9%	11.6%	4.2%	-66.4%	-6.8%
Honda	4.7%	7.9%	4.9%	-40.4%	-4.9%
Hyundai	3.5%	8.2%	3.3%	-57.8%	5.2%
Kia	5.4%	10.8%	6.6%	-50.1%	-17.9%
Nissan	7.4%	15.6%	6.2%	-52.7%	19.4%
Stellantis	4.2%	10.4%	5.6%	-59.2%	-24.2%
Subaru	2.8%	4.9%	3.2%	-43.8%	-14.4%
Toyota	3.1%	7.7%	3.5%	-59.6%	-11.0%
Volkswagen Group	5.4%	11.1%	5.6%	-51.5%	-2.7%
Industry	4.6%	10.0%	5.0%	-54.1%	-7.4%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Nov 2021 Forecast	Nov 2020 Actual	Oct 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$44,144,026,175	$46,015,617,012	$42,679,523,573	-4.1%	3.4%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-forecasts-an-increased-industry-sales-pace-for-november-2021-as-inventory-starts-to-rebound-301431104.html

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What is TrueCar's forecast for total new vehicle sales in November 2021?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales to reach 1,073,042 units in November 2021.

How does TrueCar's forecast for November 2021 compare to October 2021?

The forecast shows a 14% increase in sales compared to October 2021.

What is the projected SAAR for light vehicle sales in November 2021?

The SAAR for light vehicle sales is estimated at 13.7 million, down 12% from last year.

What is expected for U.S. retail deliveries of new cars in November 2021?

U.S. retail deliveries are expected to be 971,021 units, down 16% from a year ago.

What are the average transaction prices projected by TrueCar for November 2021?

Average transaction prices are projected to rise 9% year-on-year.