TrueCar Forecasts a Continued Decline in Industry Sales for October 2021 Amid Vehicle Shortages

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales at 1,054,312 units for October 2021, reflecting a 20% decline year-over-year and a 3% decrease from September 2021. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate for light vehicle sales is estimated at 13 million, also down 20% from October 2020. Retail deliveries are projected at 945,027 units, facing similar declines. However, average transaction prices rise 8% year-over-year. New vehicle inventory shows slight improvement while demand remains strong, with average interest rates at 4.3% for new vehicles.

Positive

• Average transaction price anticipated to increase by 8% year-over-year.
• Slight improvement in new vehicle inventory reported.
• Strong demand for new vehicles expected.

Negative

• Total vehicle sales forecast down 20% year-over-year.
• Expected retail deliveries reduced by 20% compared to last year.
• Incentive spending decreased by 39% from last year.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,054,312 units in October 2021, down 20% from a year ago and down 3% vs. September 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million, down 20% from October 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 945,027 units, down 20% from a year ago and down 3% from September 2021.

"After eight months of consistent declines we are finally starting to see signs of a slight improvement in new vehicle inventory," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Overall inventory remains tight and with demand holding strong we are set to see another month of record new vehicle transaction prices."

"While overall average incentive spend is expected to continue to decline, the decline is not uniform across vehicle segments," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Full-size pickup trucks are actually seeing a notable increase in finance offers which has helped drive that segment to almost 25% of new vehicle sales, a dramatic increase from 15% back in May."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total sales for October 2021 are expected to be down 20% from a year ago and down 3% from September 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for October 2021 are expected to be down 14% from a year ago and down 5% from September 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 8% from a year ago and up 1% from September 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 20% from a year ago at 13 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for October 2021 are expected to reach 3.5 million, up 5% from a year ago and down 2% from September 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.3%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for October 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	27,666	31,040	26,031	-10.9%	-7.6%	6.3%	-1.6%
Daimler	19,676	29,082	18,419	-32.3%	-29.8%	6.8%	-1.1%
Ford	165,523	181,820	155,384	-9.0%	-5.6%	6.5%	-1.4%
GM	144,921	259,493	111,046	-44.2%	-42.1%	30.5%	20.8%
Honda	97,565	126,987	95,716	-23.2%	-20.3%	1.9%	-5.6%
Hyundai	69,669	58,449	58,667	19.2%	23.6%	18.8%	10.0%
Kia	52,514	56,094	52,906	-6.4%	-2.9%	-0.7%	-8.1%
Nissan	54,511	71,679	51,182	-24.0%	-21.1%	6.5%	-1.4%
Stellantis	131,570	159,147	130,926	-17.3%	-14.3%	0.5%	-7.0%
Subaru	35,236	61,411	42,054	-42.6%	-40.5%	-16.2%	-22.4%
Tesla	28,394	19,600	26,291	44.9%	50.2%	8.0%	0.0%
Toyota	136,547	203,936	151,378	-33.0%	-30.6%	-9.8%	-16.5%
Volkswagen Group	45,627	51,607	38,821	-11.6%	-8.3%	17.5%	8.8%
Industry	1,054,312	1,361,858	1,006,931	-22.6%	-19.7%	4.7%	-3.1%

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	27,101	30,527	25,563	-11.2%	-7.9%	6.0%	-1.8%
Daimler	18,630	28,152	18,042	-33.8%	-31.4%	3.3%	-4.4%
Ford	130,808	145,598	126,366	-10.2%	-6.8%	3.5%	-4.2%
GM	131,311	221,495	96,906	-40.7%	-38.5%	35.5%	25.5%
Honda	96,538	126,385	95,314	-23.6%	-20.8%	1.3%	-6.2%
Hyundai	65,719	50,603	54,276	29.9%	34.7%	21.1%	12.1%
Kia	47,284	51,078	50,938	-7.4%	-4.0%	-7.2%	-14.0%
Nissan	49,584	67,585	42,214	-26.6%	-23.9%	17.5%	8.8%
Stellantis	109,296	134,124	110,891	-18.5%	-15.5%	-1.4%	-8.7%
Subaru	35,031	60,582	40,486	-42.2%	-40.0%	-13.5%	-19.9%
Tesla	28,229	19,600	26,282	44.0%	49.4%	7.4%	-0.5%
Toyota	122,548	194,363	134,082	-36.9%	-34.6%	-8.6%	-15.4%
Volkswagen Group	44,838	51,182	38,284	-12.4%	-9.1%	17.1%	8.4%
Industry	945,027	1,229,613	900,655	-23.1%	-20.3%	4.9%	-2.8%

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	513	468	10.2%	14.3%	20.7%	11.8%
Daimler	1,046	930	377	12.5%	16.7%	177.6%	157.1%
Ford	34,715	36,222	29,018	-4.2%	-0.6%	19.6%	10.8%
GM	13,610	37,998	14,140	-64.2%	-62.9%	-3.7%	-10.9%
Honda	1,028	602	402	70.7%	77.0%	155.7%	136.7%
Hyundai	3,950	7,846	4,391	-49.7%	-47.8%	-10.0%	-16.7%
Kia	5,230	5,016	1,968	4.3%	8.1%	165.7%	146.0%
Nissan	4,927	4,094	8,968	20.3%	24.8%	-45.1%	-49.1%
Stellantis	22,274	25,023	20,035	-11.0%	-7.7%	11.2%	2.9%
Subaru	205	829	1,568	-75.3%	-74.4%	-86.9%	-87.9%
Tesla	165	-	9			1740.8%	1604.4%
Toyota	13,999	9,573	17,296	46.2%	51.7%	-19.1%	-25.1%
Volkswagen Group	789	425	537	85.5%	92.3%	46.9%	36.0%
Industry	109,285	132,245	106,276	-17.4%	-14.3%	2.8%	-4.8%

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	2.0%	1.7%	1.8%	23.6%	13.6%
Daimler	5.3%	3.2%	2.0%	66.3%	159.9%
Ford	21.0%	19.9%	18.7%	5.3%	12.3%
GM	9.4%	14.6%	12.7%	-35.9%	-26.2%
Honda	1.1%	0.5%	0.4%	122.2%	150.8%
Hyundai	5.7%	13.4%	7.5%	-57.8%	-24.2%
Kia	10.0%	8.9%	3.7%	11.4%	167.7%
Nissan	9.0%	5.7%	17.5%	58.3%	-48.4%
Stellantis	16.9%	15.7%	15.3%	7.7%	10.6%
Subaru	0.6%	1.3%	3.7%	-56.9%	-84.4%
Tesla	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%		1604.4%
Toyota	10.3%	4.7%	11.4%	118.4%	-10.3%
Volkswagen Group	1.7%	0.8%	1.4%	109.8%	25.0%
Industry	10.4%	9.7%	10.6%	6.7%	-1.8%

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual
BMW	2.6%	2.3%	2.6%
Daimler	1.9%	2.1%	1.8%
Ford	15.7%	13.4%	15.4%
GM	13.7%	19.1%	11.0%
Honda	9.3%	9.3%	9.5%
Hyundai	6.6%	4.3%	5.8%
Kia	5.0%	4.1%	5.3%
Nissan	5.2%	5.3%	5.1%
Stellantis	12.5%	11.7%	13.0%
Subaru	3.3%	4.5%	4.2%
Tesla	2.7%	1.4%	2.6%
Toyota	13.0%	15.0%	15.0%
Volkswagen Group	4.3%	3.8%	3.9%
	95.7%	96.2%	95.2%

 

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual
BMW	2.9%	2.5%	2.8%
Daimler	2.0%	2.3%	2.0%
Ford	13.8%	11.8%	14.0%
GM	13.9%	18.0%	10.8%
Honda	10.2%	10.3%	10.6%
Hyundai	7.0%	4.1%	6.0%
Kia	5.0%	4.2%	5.7%
Nissan	5.2%	5.5%	4.7%
Stellantis	11.6%	10.9%	12.3%
Subaru	3.7%	4.9%	4.5%
Tesla	3.0%	1.6%	2.9%
Toyota	13.0%	15.8%	14.9%
Volkswagen Group	4.7%	4.2%	4.3%
	96.0%	96.1%	95.4%

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$60,330	$61,519	$61,267	-1.9%	-1.5%
Daimler	$62,653	$57,690	$64,719	8.6%	-3.2%
Ford	$46,623	$43,493	$47,323	7.2%	-1.5%
GM	$49,786	$42,891	$48,370	16.1%	2.9%
Honda	$31,730	$30,144	$31,782	5.3%	-0.2%
Hyundai	$33,663	$29,822	$33,543	12.9%	0.4%
Kia	$28,700	$27,608	$28,411	4.0%	1.0%
Nissan	$32,615	$28,388	$31,910	14.9%	2.2%
Stellantis	$48,791	$42,638	$47,679	14.4%	2.3%
Subaru	$30,263	$30,281	$29,951	-0.1%	1.0%
Toyota	$38,588	$35,476	$37,189	8.8%	3.8%
Volkswagen Group	$39,475	$38,948	$38,537	1.4%	2.4%
Industry	$40,121	$37,117	$39,724	8.1%	1.0%
	$3,004		$397

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$3,360	$4,916	$3,601	-31.7%	-6.7%
Daimler	$2,981	$4,563	$3,177	-34.7%	-6.2%
Ford	$2,481	$4,375	$2,622	-43.3%	-5.4%
GM	$2,441	$4,943	$2,650	-50.6%	-7.9%
Honda	$1,982	$2,298	$2,007	-13.8%	-1.3%
Hyundai	$1,180	$2,323	$1,381	-49.2%	-14.5%
Kia	$1,775	$2,891	$2,047	-38.6%	-13.3%
Nissan	$2,332	$4,661	$2,397	-50.0%	-2.7%
Stellantis	$3,108	$4,480	$3,186	-30.6%	-2.4%
Subaru	$1,218	$1,525	$1,199	-20.2%	1.5%
Toyota	$2,045	$2,462	$1,794	-16.9%	14.0%
Volkswagen Group	$2,525	$3,839	$2,547	-34.2%	-0.8%
Industry	$2,277	$3,708	$2,348	-38.6%	-3.0%
	-$1,431		-$71

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	5.6%	8.0%	5.9%	-30.3%	-5.2%
Daimler	4.8%	7.9%	4.9%	-39.8%	-3.1%
Ford	5.3%	10.1%	5.5%	-47.1%	-4.0%
GM	4.9%	11.5%	5.5%	-57.5%	-10.5%
Honda	6.2%	7.6%	6.3%	-18.1%	-1.1%
Hyundai	3.5%	7.8%	4.1%	-55.0%	-14.8%
Kia	6.2%	10.5%	7.2%	-40.9%	-14.2%
Nissan	7.1%	16.4%	7.5%	-56.5%	-4.8%
Stellantis	6.4%	10.5%	6.7%	-39.4%	-4.7%
Subaru	4.0%	5.0%	4.0%	-20.1%	0.5%
Toyota	5.3%	6.9%	4.8%	-23.6%	9.9%
Volkswagen Group	6.4%	9.9%	6.6%	-35.1%	-3.2%
Industry	5.7%	10.0%	5.9%	-43.2%	-4.0%

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Oct 2021 Forecast	Oct 2020 Actual	Sep 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$42,300,229,951	$50,548,186,301	$39,999,490,009	-16.3%	5.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-forecasts-a-continued-decline-in-industry-sales-for-october-2021-amid-vehicle-shortages-301410248.html

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.