TransUnion 2025 Consumer Credit Forecast Points to Moderating Credit Card Balance Growth and Slower Delinquency Gains
TransUnion's 2025 Consumer Credit Forecast projects a slowdown in the growth of both credit card balances and delinquencies by the end of 2025. Following four years of increases, credit card balances are expected to rise to $1.1 trillion by the end of 2025, a YoY increase of 4.4%, significantly lower than the 18.5% and 12.6% growth in 2022 and 2023. The number of active credit cards has increased to 554.5 million in Q3 2024, up from 451.6 million in Q3 2020. Despite these increases, balances among non-prime borrowers are forecasted to grow at slower rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to the previous two years.
Serious credit card delinquency rates (90+ DPD) are anticipated to rise to 2.76% in 2025, a 12 bps YoY increase, but still lower than the increases observed in 2022 and 2023. Other credit products like auto loans, unsecured personal loans, and mortgages show mixed delinquency trends, with auto loan delinquencies expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025, and unsecured personal loan and mortgage delinquencies remaining relatively stable.
TransUnion's projections are based on various economic factors and could change if there are unanticipated economic shocks.
Le previsioni sul credito dei consumatori di TransUnion per il 2025 stimano un rallentamento nella crescita sia dei saldi delle carte di credito sia delle morosità entro la fine del 2025. Dopo quattro anni di aumenti, si prevede che i saldi delle carte di credito raggiungano 1,1 trilioni di dollari entro la fine del 2025, con un aumento anno su anno del 4,4%, notevolmente inferiore alla crescita del 18,5% e del 12,6% nel 2022 e nel 2023. Il numero delle carte di credito attive è aumentato a 554,5 milioni nel terzo trimestre del 2024, rispetto ai 451,6 milioni nel terzo trimestre del 2020. Nonostante questi aumenti, si prevede che i saldi tra i mutuatari non prime crescano a tassi più lenti nel 2024 e 2025 rispetto ai due anni precedenti.
Le gravi tassi di morosità delle carte di credito (90+ DPD) sono attesi aumentare al 2,76% nel 2025, con un aumento di 12 punti base anno su anno, ma comunque inferiori agli aumenti osservati nel 2022 e nel 2023. Altri prodotti di credito come i prestiti auto, i prestiti personali non garantiti e i mutui mostrano tendenze di morosità miste, con le morosità sui prestiti auto previste in lieve calo nel quarto trimestre del 2025, mentre le morosità sui prestiti personali non garantiti e sui mutui restano relativamente stabili.
Le previsioni di TransUnion si basano su vari fattori economici e potrebbero cambiare in caso di shock economici imprevisti.
Las previsiones de crédito al consumidor de TransUnion para 2025 anticipan una desaceleración en el crecimiento tanto de los saldos de las tarjetas de crédito como de las morosidades para finales de 2025. Tras cuatro años de aumentos, se espera que los saldos de las tarjetas de crédito alcancen los 1,1 billones de dólares a finales de 2025, un aumento interanual del 4,4%, significativamente más bajo que el crecimiento del 18,5% y del 12,6% en 2022 y 2023. El número de tarjetas de crédito activas ha aumentado a 554,5 millones en el tercer trimestre de 2024, frente a los 451,6 millones en el tercer trimestre de 2020. A pesar de estos incrementos, se prevé que los saldos entre los prestatarios no prime crezcan a tasas más lentas en 2024 y 2025 en comparación con los dos años anteriores.
Se anticipa que las tasas de morosidad de tarjetas de crédito graves (90+ DPD) aumenten al 2,76% en 2025, un incremento de 12 puntos básicos interanual, pero aún inferiores a los aumentos observados en 2022 y 2023. Otros productos de crédito, como préstamos para automóviles, préstamos personales no garantizados y hipotecas, muestran tendencias de morosidad mixtas, con una ligera disminución en la morosidad de préstamos para automóviles prevista para el cuarto trimestre de 2025, mientras que las morosidades de los préstamos personales no garantizados y las hipotecas permanecen relativamente estables.
Las proyecciones de TransUnion se basan en varios factores económicos y podrían cambiar si hay choques económicos imprevistos.
TransUnion의 2025년 소비자 신용 전망은 2025년 말까지 신용카드 잔액 및 연체율의 둔화를 예상합니다. 4년 연속 증가한 후, 신용카드 잔액은 2025년 말까지 1.1조 달러에 이를 것으로 예상되며, 이는 작년 대비 4.4% 증가하여 2022년 및 2023년의 18.5% 및 12.6%의 성장률보다 상당히 낮습니다. 활성 신용카드는 2024년 3분기 기준 5억 5450만 장으로, 2020년 3분기 4억 5160만 장에서 증가했습니다. 이러한 증가에도 불구하고, 비프라임 차용자의 잔액은 2024년과 2025년에 이전 2년보다 느린 속도로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
심각한 신용카드 연체율 (90+ DPD)는 2025년 2.76%로 상승할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 연간 12bps 증가한 수치이나, 2022년 및 2023년에 관찰된 증가세보다는 낮습니다. 자동차 대출, 무담보 개인 대출 및 주택 담보 대출과 같은 다른 신용 상품들은 혼합된 연체 추세를 보이고 있으며, 자동차 대출 연체율은 2025년 4분기에 약간 감소할 것으로 예상되며, 무담보 개인 대출 및 주택 담보 대출의 연체율은 상대적으로 안정세를 유지할 것입니다.
TransUnion의 예측은 다양한 경제적 요소를 기반으로 하며 예기치 않은 경제 충격이 발생할 경우 변경될 수 있습니다.
Les prévisions de crédit à la consommation de TransUnion pour 2025 prévoient un ralentissement de la croissance des soldes de cartes de crédit et des délais de paiement d'ici fin 2025. Après quatre années d'augmentation, les soldes de cartes de crédit devraient atteindre 1,1 billion de dollars d'ici la fin de 2025, ce qui représente une augmentation de 4,4% d'une année sur l'autre, nettement inférieure aux croissances de 18,5% et 12,6% observées en 2022 et 2023. Le nombre de cartes de crédit actives a atteint 554,5 millions au troisième trimestre 2024, contre 451,6 millions au troisième trimestre 2020. Malgré ces augmentations, les soldes chez les emprunteurs non-prime devraient croître à des rythmes plus lents en 2024 et 2025 par rapport aux deux années précédentes.
Les taux de retard de paiement sur cartes de crédit graves (90+ DPD) devraient atteindre 2,76% en 2025, avec une hausse de 12 points de base d'une année sur l'autre, mais cela reste inférieur aux augmentations observées en 2022 et 2023. D'autres produits de crédit comme les prêts automobiles, les prêts personnels non garantis et les hypothèques montrent des tendances de délais de paiement mitigées, avec des retards de paiement sur les prêts automobiles prévus en légère baisse au quatrième trimestre de 2025, tandis que les retards de paiement sur les prêts personnels non garantis et sur les hypothèques demeurent relativement stables.
Les prévisions de TransUnion reposent sur divers facteurs économiques et pourraient changer en cas de chocs économiques inattendus.
Die Verbraucher-Kreditprognose von TransUnion für 2025 prognostiziert eine Verlangsamung des Wachstums sowohl der Kreditkartenstände als auch der Zahlungsverzüge bis Ende 2025. Nach vier Jahren des Anstiegs wird erwartet, dass die Kreditkartenstände bis Ende 2025 auf 1,1 Billionen Dollar steigen, was einem Anstieg von 4,4% im Jahresvergleich entspricht und damit deutlich niedriger ist als das Wachstum von 18,5% und 12,6% in 2022 und 2023. Die Zahl aktiver Kreditkarten ist im dritten Quartal 2024 auf 554,5 Millionen gestiegen, von 451,6 Millionen im dritten Quartal 2020. Trotz dieser Zuwächse wird prognostiziert, dass die Stände bei Nicht-Prämiennehmern im Jahr 2024 und 2025 langsamer wachsen als in den beiden vorhergehenden Jahren.
Ernsthafte Zahlungsverzüge bei Kreditkarten (90+ DPD) werden voraussichtlich 2025 auf 2,76% steigen, was einem Anstieg von 12 Basispunkten im Jahresvergleich entspricht, jedoch immer noch niedriger ist als die im Jahr 2022 und 2023 beobachteten Anstiege. Andere Kreditprodukte wie Autokredite, unbesicherte persönliche Kredite und Hypotheken zeigen gemischte Trends in Bezug auf die Zahlungsverzüge, wobei die Zahlungsverzüge bei Autokrediten im vierten Quartal 2025 voraussichtlich leicht zurückgehen werden, während die Zahlungsverzüge bei unbesicherten persönlichen Krediten und Hypotheken relativ stabil bleiben.
Die Prognosen von TransUnion basieren auf verschiedenen wirtschaftlichen Faktoren und könnten sich ändern, wenn unvorhergesehene wirtschaftliche Schocks auftreten.
- Credit card balances expected to grow to $1.1 trillion by end of 2025, a YoY increase of 4.4%.
- Serious credit card delinquency rates (90+ DPD) to rise only by 12 bps in 2025, indicating slower growth in delinquencies.
- Auto loan delinquencies expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025.
- Credit card balances among non-prime borrowers to grow at slower rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to previous years.
Insights
- Moderating balance growth across prime and non-prime segments
- Stabilizing delinquency rates across multiple credit products
- Improving consumer financial health indicators
TransUnion projects delinquency expectations for major credit products during the next year
CHICAGO, Dec. 11, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Following four years of increases in credit card balances and delinquencies, a new TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) consumer credit forecast projects a slowdown in growth for both metrics by the end of 2025. TransUnion’s forecast also examined the state of delinquency in 2025 for auto loans, unsecured personal loans and mortgages.
The forecast highlights the outlook for credit cards as this credit product is by far the most widely used in the U.S. In Q3 2024 (latest data available), there were 554.5 million active credit cards held by U.S. consumers. In the last four years alone, the number of credit cards increased by more than 100 million (451.6 million in Q3 2020).
“We’ve observed widespread growth in credit cards in recent years for myriad reasons. Notably, credit card issuers felt comfortable taking on more risk, while consumer appetite for credit rose in tandem with higher costs for everyday goods and services,” said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion. “As inflation pressures dissipate and interest rates continue their slow decline, we believe there will also be a slowing in both credit card balance growth and serious delinquency rates.”
TransUnion projects credit card balances to increase to
Balances among non-prime credit card borrowers, those borrowers with VantageScore 4.0 scores of 660 or below, are forecast to grow at a slower rate than in recent years. Among non-prime borrowers, balances are expected to grow by
After Double Digit Growth in 2022 and 2023, Card Balances Are Expected to Grow More Slowly
Metric/Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024* | 2025* |
| Year-End Balances ($B) | $1,088.8 | $1,136.3 | |||||
| YoY % Change | - | 3.9% | 4.4% |
*Forecasted
Serious credit card delinquency rates of 90 or more days past due (90+ DPD) are expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year in 2025 to
Card Delinquencies Are Forecast to Grow More Slowly in the Coming Year
Metric/Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024* | 2025* |
| Year-End DQ Rate (90+ DPD) | 2.64% | 2.76% | |||||
| YoY Change | 25 bps | -89 bps | 18 bps | 78 bps | 33 bps | 5 bps | 12 bps |
*Forecasted
“The growth in total credit card balances is expected to be driven by gradual increases in prices and in consumer spending, along with slower increases in personal savings,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “We are forecasting credit card balance increases more in line with the single-digit growth observed in pre-pandemic years. This slowing growth and the overall stabilization of the economy offers optimism that we may be nearing a tipping point when it comes to the increases in serious delinquency rates over the past several years.”
This projected slower balance growth comes as more consumers appear confident about the state of their household budgets. According to TransUnion’s recently released Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse study,
Mixed Outlook for Delinquency Among Other Credit Products, but Potential for Optimism
Among other lending categories, delinquencies are, for the most part, leveling off as the macroeconomic picture improves and consumers gradually find themselves in more favorable financial positions.
- Auto loan delinquencies are expected to stabilize in Q4 2024 and see a decline in Q4 2025 following two consecutive years of growth. Serious delinquency rates of 60 or more days past due (60+ DPD) are forecasted to remain flat YoY in Q4 2024 before a slight decline of 7 bps in Q4 2025.
- After seeing a decline of 24 bps in Q4 2023, serious unsecured personal loan delinquency rates (60+ DPD) are expected to remain relatively flat in Q4 2024 (-3 bps) and see a small uptick in Q4 2025 (+13 bps). A key element of this increase is likely lenders expanding their buy boxes to riskier borrowers as the economy continues to stabilize.
- Despite three consecutive YoY increases (among them a forecasted increase of 15 bps in Q4 2024), 60+ DPD mortgage delinquency rates remain extremely low relative to historical norms and are expected to remain flat in Q4 2025 (-1 bps).
Serious Delinquency Rates Are Not Expected to See Significant Growth
| Credit Product/ Year-End DQ Rate | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024* | 2025* |
| Auto Loans | 1.45% | 1.38% | |||||
| Unsecured Personal Loans | 3.87% | 4.00% | |||||
| Mortgage | 1.26% | 1.25% |
*Forecasted
“One common thread that we see across lending categories is moderation in serious delinquency, likely driven by a stabilizing economy,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “Consumers are returning to a financial equilibrium, increasingly finding the room needed in their monthly budgets to make on-time payments and avoid falling behind. Economic conditions are forecast to continue to gradually improve in 2025. As lenders look for loan growth next year, they should use all of the tools at their disposal to make the best possible lending decisions.”
TransUnion’s forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as expected consumer spending, disposable personal income, home prices, inflation, interest rates, real GDP growth rates and unemployment rates, among other metrics. The forecasts could change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy. Better-than-expected improvements in the economy, such as potential increases in GDP and disposable income, could also impact these forecasts.
To learn more about how lenders can win more customers with greater speed, precision and control, click here. To learn more about how TruVision can help more precisely balance risk and opportunity with risk management products that identify and manage best-fit customers across the account lifecycle, click here.
For tips on how utilization rate, payment history and other factors can impact consumers’ credit, visit TransUnion’s blog on how to use a credit card responsibly.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business
| Contact | Dave Blumberg |
| TransUnion | |
| david.blumberg@transunion.com | |
| Telephone | 312-972-6646 |
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