New TransUnion Analysis Finds More Than 4% of U.S. Attempted Ecommerce Transactions Between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday Suspected to be Fraudulent

Rhea-AI Summary

TransUnion's analysis reveals that 4.6% of global attempted ecommerce transactions during the 2024 Cyber Five period (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) were suspected to be Digital Fraud, down from 6.0% in 2023. In the U.S., the fraud rate was 4.2%, decreased from 5.8% last year.

The highest fraud rates were recorded on Thanksgiving Day (November 28) at 5.3% globally and 5.4% in the U.S. The average number of suspected fraud attempts during the holiday period was 30.2% lower than in 2023 and 5.9% lower than during the rest of 2024.

According to TransUnion's Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse Study, 64% of U.S. consumers expressed concern about digital fraud during the holiday shopping season.

Positive

• Significant decrease in fraud attempt rates from 6.0% to 4.6% globally
• U.S. fraud rates dropped from 5.8% to 4.2% year-over-year
• 30.2% reduction in average daily fraud attempts compared to 2023

Negative

• 4.2% of U.S. ecommerce transactions still suspected as fraudulent
• High fraud rate spike of 5.4% on Thanksgiving Day in the U.S.
• 64% of consumers remain concerned about digital fraud

Insights

Cybersecurity Analyst

The significant drop in suspected digital fraud rates during the Cyber Five period - from 6.0% to 4.6% globally and 5.8% to 4.2% in the U.S. - represents a notable improvement in fraud prevention. Key risk indicators like high transaction volume from single devices and new device associations with accounts highlight evolving fraud patterns. The 30.2% year-over-year decrease in daily fraud attempts suggests enhanced detection systems and merchant preparedness. However, with 64% of consumers still expressing fraud concerns, there's a clear need for continued vigilance. Thanksgiving Day emerged as the peak fraud risk period with 5.4% suspicious transactions in the U.S., indicating fraudsters' strategic timing to exploit heavy shopping traffic.

E-commerce Analyst

The decreasing fraud rates amid the extended holiday shopping season signal a positive shift in e-commerce security dynamics. The lower fraud attempt rate during Cyber Five (4.6%) compared to the rest of 2024 (7.5%) suggests that merchants' fraud prevention strategies are particularly effective during high-traffic periods. The varying daily fraud rates throughout the shopping weekend, ranging from 3.6% to 5.4% in the U.S., indicate that fraudsters are becoming more sophisticated in targeting specific shopping days. This data is important for retailers to optimize their fraud detection systems and maintain consumer trust while minimizing false positives that could impact legitimate sales.

TransUnion analyzes early holiday ecommerce fraud attempt rates

CHICAGO, Dec. 05, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- As millions of consumers took advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals this past week, a new analysis from TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) found that 4.6% of attempted ecommerce transactions globally were suspected to be Digital Fraud from this Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. Based on proprietary insights from TransUnion’s global intelligence network, TransUnion found that the global suspected Digital Fraud rate was down from 6.0% during the same period in 2023. For attempted ecommerce transactions where the consumer was in the U.S., 4.2% were suspected of Digital Fraud during the 2024 holiday shopping period. That’s down from 5.8% during the same period in 2023.

The analysis reviewed attempted ecommerce transactions from across the globe during the Cyber Five period, which consists of the days between November 28 (Thanksgiving Day) and December 2 (Cyber Monday), 2024.

The study determined that the average number of suspected Digital Fraud attempts on any given day during that holiday period globally was 30.2% lower than the same period in 2023 and 5.9% lower than during the rest of 2024 (Jan. 1, 2024, to Nov. 27, 2024).

The Percentage of Suspected Ecommerce Fraud during the Cyber Five vs. Overall
Location	Cyber Five 2024 (Nov. 28 – Dec. 2)		All 2024 prior to Nov. 28		Cyber Five 2023 (Nov. 23 – 27)		All 2023 prior to Nov. 27		Cyber Five 2022 (Nov. 24 – 28)		All 2022 prior to Nov. 24
U.S.	4.2	%	7.1	%	5.8	%	6.6	%	3.1	%	5.5	%
Globally	4.6	%	7.5	%	6.0	%	12.5	%	4.3	%	6.8	%

Source: TransUnion TruValidate™

“The late U.S. Thanksgiving holiday along with the general lengthening of the holiday shopping season were factors in the overall decline in transactions and the concurrent downtick in suspected fraud during the Cyber Five,” said Steve Yin, global head of fraud at TransUnion. “For online retailers, this speaks to the need to maintain diligence year-round. For the remainder of this holiday shopping season, and beyond, online retailers must continue to implement tools that maintain a friction-right experience, wherein both business and consumer are protected without major disruption.”

The greatest fraud disruptions globally during Cyber Five occurred on Thursday, November 28 with 5.3% of all attempted digital transactions on that day suspected to be Digital Fraud. The study also revealed the suspected Digital Fraud rate for each day in the holiday shopping period for attempted transactions where the consumer was in the U.S. during the transaction. Similar to global data, the suspected Digital Fraud attempt rate was the highest on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 28 during the holiday shopping period in the U.S.

The Suspected Digital Fraud Rate Varies for Each Day of the Holiday Shopping Weekend
Day	U.S.		Globally
Thursday, Nov. 28th	5.4	%	5.3	%
Friday, Nov. 29th	3.7	%	4.5	%
Saturday, Nov. 30th	3.7	%	4.2	%
Sunday, Dec. 1st	5.2	%	4.6	%
Monday, Dec. 2nd	3.6	%	4.5	%

 

Source: TransUnion TruValidate

As part of this analysis, TransUnion also determined the top signals indicating risk of fraudulent ecommerce transactions during the holiday shopping season globally. This year, unusually high transaction volume from a single device and devices being newly associated with an account were among the leading indicators for potential fraud attempts.

Many Holiday Shoppers Remain Concerned About Digital Fraud

The decrease in suspected Digital Fraud came as a majority of U.S. consumers indicated they were at least moderately concerned about being victimized by Digital Fraud during this holiday shopping season. TransUnion’s Q4 2024 US Consumer Pulse Study found that 64% of survey respondents indicated that they were extremely, very or moderately concerned about digital fraud during this busy shopping period.

“The winter holidays are always hugely impactful to retailers’ bottom lines, and our recent survey indicates that consumers may be particularly eager to buy this holiday shopping season,” said Yin. “It’s as important as ever for retailers to equip themselves with the tools they need to detect fraud early. These tools can help minimize fraudulent transactions while at the same time protecting legitimate transactions. Retailers should seek to implement holistic fraud solutions that can verify customer identity and authenticity as early as possible during a transaction.”

TransUnion came to its conclusions about Digital Fraud based on intelligence from its identity and fraud product suite that helps secure trust across channels and delivers efficient consumer experiences – TransUnion TruValidate. The rate or percentage of suspected Digital Fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation — compared to all transactions assessed. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country and region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide.

To find out how this data varies by select countries and more, TransUnion’s holiday fraud trends can be found here.

Consumers interested in obtaining their TransUnion credit report, credit score, and accessing additional credit planning tools can click here. Learn more about how TransUnion^® helps individuals and families protect against identity theft here.

About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)

TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.

http://www.transunion.com/business

Contact	Dave Blumberg
	TransUnion
E-mail	david.blumberg@transunion.com
Telephone	312-972-6646

FAQ

What was the digital fraud rate for TRU during Cyber Five 2024?

TransUnion (TRU) reported that 4.6% of global attempted ecommerce transactions and 4.2% of U.S. transactions were suspected to be fraudulent during Cyber Five 2024.

Which day had the highest fraud rate during Cyber Five 2024?

Thursday, November 28 (Thanksgiving Day) had the highest fraud rate at 5.4% in the U.S. and 5.3% globally.

How did TRU's 2024 Cyber Five fraud rates compare to 2023?

The global fraud rate decreased from 6.0% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, while U.S. fraud rates dropped from 5.8% to 4.2%.

What percentage of U.S. consumers were concerned about digital fraud in Q4 2024?

According to TransUnion's Q4 2024 Consumer Pulse Study, 64% of U.S. consumers were extremely, very, or moderately concerned about digital fraud during the holiday shopping season.