Growth in Originations Expected Across Multiple Credit Products in 2025
The Q4 2024 TransUnion Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR) forecasts growth in new account originations across various credit products for 2025, despite steady interest rates and high inflation. New auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans are expected to see gains, driven by cautious lender underwriting strategies.
Auto originations are projected to grow by 2.8% in 2025, though this may be tempered by policy shifts, high interest rates, and inflation. Mortgage originations are expected to increase from 4.6 million in 2024 to 5.7 million in 2025, with purchase originations comprising most of this growth. Unsecured personal loan originations are anticipated to reach 20.8 million in 2025, expanding into riskier tiers as the economy moderates.
In Q4 2024, several signs of stabilization emerged in the consumer credit market. Mortgage and auto originations saw YoY growth, while unsecured personal loans experienced significant growth. Credit card originations, however, saw a 4.8% YoY decline. Delinquencies presented a mixed picture, with decreases in unsecured personal loans and credit cards but increases in auto and mortgage loans.
Overall, TransUnion's report indicates a more stable consumer credit environment, with a return to typical patterns seen before 2020.
Il Rapporto sulle Intuizioni del Settore Creditizio di TransUnion per il Q4 2024 prevede una crescita nelle nuove aperture di conti per vari prodotti creditizi nel 2025, nonostante tassi di interesse stabili e alta inflazione. Si prevede che i nuovi prestiti auto, mutui e prestiti personali non garantiti vedranno un aumento, sostenuto da strategie di underwriting prudenti da parte dei finanziatori.
Le aperture di prestiti auto sono stimate crescere del 2,8% nel 2025, anche se questo potrebbe essere attenuato da cambiamenti nelle politiche, alti tassi di interesse e inflazione. Si prevede che le aperture di mutui aumenteranno da 4,6 milioni nel 2024 a 5,7 milioni nel 2025, con la maggior parte di questa crescita proveniente dalle aperture per acquisto. Le aperture di prestiti personali non garantiti dovrebbero raggiungere i 20,8 milioni nel 2025, espandendosi in categorie più rischiose man mano che l'economia si stabilizza.
Nel Q4 2024, sono emersi diversi segnali di stabilizzazione nel mercato del credito al consumo. Le aperture di mutui e prestiti auto hanno mostrato una crescita anno su anno, mentre i prestiti personali non garantiti hanno registrato una crescita significativa. Tuttavia, le aperture di carte di credito hanno visto un calo del 4,8% anno su anno. Le inadempienze hanno presentato un quadro misto, con diminuzioni nei prestiti personali non garantiti e nelle carte di credito, ma aumenti nei prestiti auto e nei mutui.
In generale, il rapporto di TransUnion indica un ambiente di credito al consumo più stabile, con un ritorno ai modelli tipici visti prima del 2020.
El Informe de Perspectivas de la Industria Crediticia de TransUnion para el Q4 2024 pronostica un crecimiento en la creación de nuevas cuentas en varios productos de crédito para 2025, a pesar de las tasas de interés estables y la alta inflación. Se espera que los nuevos préstamos para automóviles, hipotecas y préstamos personales no garantizados experimenten un aumento, impulsados por estrategias de evaluación de riesgos prudentes por parte de los prestamistas.
Se proyecta que las originaciones de préstamos para automóviles crecerán un 2.8% en 2025, aunque esto podría verse moderado por cambios en las políticas, altas tasas de interés e inflación. Se espera que las originaciones de hipotecas aumenten de 4.6 millones en 2024 a 5.7 millones en 2025, siendo la mayoría de este crecimiento originaciones de compra. Se anticipa que las originaciones de préstamos personales no garantizados alcancen los 20.8 millones en 2025, expandiéndose hacia categorías más riesgosas a medida que la economía se modera.
En el Q4 2024, surgieron varios signos de estabilización en el mercado de crédito al consumo. Las originaciones de hipotecas y préstamos para automóviles vieron un crecimiento interanual, mientras que los préstamos personales no garantizados experimentaron un crecimiento significativo. Sin embargo, las originaciones de tarjetas de crédito vieron una disminución del 4.8% interanual. Las morosidades presentaron un panorama mixto, con disminuciones en los préstamos personales no garantizados y tarjetas de crédito, pero aumentos en préstamos para automóviles e hipotecas.
En general, el informe de TransUnion indica un entorno de crédito al consumo más estable, con un regreso a los patrones típicos observados antes de 2020.
2024년 4분기 TransUnion 신용 산업 통찰력 보고서는 2025년 다양한 신용 상품에서 신규 계좌 개설이 증가할 것으로 예측하고 있습니다. 이는 안정적인 금리와 높은 인플레이션에도 불구하고 이루어지는 것입니다. 새로운 자동차 대출, 주택담보대출 및 무담보 개인 대출이 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 신중한 대출자 심사 전략에 의해 촉진될 것입니다.
자동차 대출은 2025년에 2.8% 성장할 것으로 예상되지만, 정책 변화, 높은 금리 및 인플레이션으로 인해 이는 완화될 수 있습니다. 주택담보대출은 2024년 460만 건에서 2025년 570만 건으로 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 이 성장의 대부분은 구매 대출에서 발생할 것입니다. 무담보 개인 대출은 2025년에 2080만 건에 이를 것으로 예상되며, 경제가 안정됨에 따라 위험한 계층으로 확장될 것입니다.
2024년 4분기에는 소비자 신용 시장에서 안정화의 여러 징후가 나타났습니다. 주택담보대출과 자동차 대출은 전년 대비 성장했으며, 무담보 개인 대출은 상당한 성장을 경험했습니다. 그러나 신용카드 대출은 전년 대비 4.8% 감소했습니다. 연체율은 혼합된 양상을 보였으며, 무담보 개인 대출과 신용카드에서는 감소했지만, 자동차 대출과 주택담보대출에서는 증가했습니다.
전반적으로 TransUnion의 보고서는 2020년 이전에 보였던 전형적인 패턴으로 돌아가는 소비자 신용 환경의 더 안정적인 모습을 나타냅니다.
Le Rapport sur les Perspectives du Secteur du Crédit de TransUnion pour le T4 2024 prévoit une croissance des nouvelles ouvertures de comptes dans divers produits de crédit pour 2025, malgré des taux d'intérêt stables et une forte inflation. On s'attend à ce que les nouveaux prêts automobiles, les hypothèques et les prêts personnels non garantis connaissent des gains, soutenus par des stratégies de souscription prudentes de la part des prêteurs.
Les ouvertures de prêts automobiles devraient croître de 2,8 % en 2025, bien que cela puisse être atténué par des changements de politique, des taux d'intérêt élevés et l'inflation. Les ouvertures de prêts hypothécaires devraient augmenter de 4,6 millions en 2024 à 5,7 millions en 2025, la majorité de cette croissance provenant des ouvertures pour achat. Les ouvertures de prêts personnels non garantis devraient atteindre 20,8 millions en 2025, s'étendant à des niveaux plus risqués alors que l'économie se modère.
Au T4 2024, plusieurs signes de stabilisation sont apparus sur le marché du crédit à la consommation. Les ouvertures de prêts hypothécaires et de prêts automobiles ont connu une croissance d'une année sur l'autre, tandis que les prêts personnels non garantis ont connu une croissance significative. En revanche, les ouvertures de cartes de crédit ont enregistré une baisse de 4,8 % d'une année sur l'autre. Les défaillances ont présenté un tableau mixte, avec des diminutions des prêts personnels non garantis et des cartes de crédit mais des augmentations des prêts automobiles et des hypothèques.
Dans l'ensemble, le rapport de TransUnion indique un environnement de crédit à la consommation plus stable, avec un retour aux modèles typiques observés avant 2020.
Der TransUnion Kreditmarktbericht für das 4. Quartal 2024 prognostiziert ein Wachstum bei der Neuvergabe von Krediten in verschiedenen Kreditprodukten für 2025, trotz stabiler Zinssätze und hoher Inflation. Es wird erwartet, dass neue Auto-, Hypotheken- und ungesicherte Privatkredite Zuwächse verzeichnen, die durch vorsichtige Kreditvergabestrategien der Kreditgeber angetrieben werden.
Die Auto-Neuvergabe wird für 2025 um 2,8% wachsen, obwohl dies durch politische Veränderungen, hohe Zinssätze und Inflation gemildert werden könnte. Die Hypothekenvergabe wird voraussichtlich von 4,6 Millionen im Jahr 2024 auf 5,7 Millionen im Jahr 2025 steigen, wobei die meisten dieser Wachstumsraten aus Kaufverträgen stammen. Die ungesicherten Privatkredite werden voraussichtlich im Jahr 2025 20,8 Millionen erreichen und sich in riskantere Schichten ausdehnen, während sich die Wirtschaft stabilisiert.
Im 4. Quartal 2024 gab es mehrere Anzeichen für eine Stabilisierung auf dem Verbraucherkreditmarkt. Die Hypotheken- und Auto-Neuvergaben verzeichneten ein Wachstum im Jahresvergleich, während ungesicherte Privatkredite ein signifikantes Wachstum erfuhren. Die Neugeschäfte mit Kreditkarten hingegen verzeichneten einen Rückgang von 4,8% im Jahresvergleich. Die Zahl der Zahlungsausfälle zeigte ein gemischtes Bild, mit Rückgängen bei ungesicherten Privatkrediten und Kreditkarten, aber Anstiegen bei Auto- und Hypothekendarlehen.
Insgesamt zeigt der Bericht von TransUnion ein stabileres Umfeld für Verbraucherkredite, mit einer Rückkehr zu den typischen Mustern, die vor 2020 zu beobachten waren.
- Projected growth in auto originations by 2.8% in 2025.
- Mortgage originations expected to increase from 4.6 million in 2024 to 5.7 million in 2025.
- Unsecured personal loan originations anticipated to reach 20.8 million in 2025.
- Signs of stabilization in the consumer credit market in Q4 2024.
- Significant YoY growth in unsecured personal loan originations in Q3 2024.
- Auto originations still lag 14.8% below pre-pandemic Q3 2019 levels.
- Credit card originations saw a 4.8% YoY decline in Q3 2024.
- Increased delinquencies in auto and mortgage loans in Q4 2024.
Insights
The Q4 2024 TransUnion report reveals a significant shift in credit market dynamics, with several key developments that signal important changes for financial services investors. The projected 23.9% increase in mortgage originations (from 4.6M to 5.7M) represents a particularly noteworthy trend, especially given the challenging interest rate environment.
The credit card segment shows compelling evidence of risk management effectiveness, with the first year-over-year decline in serious delinquencies since 2020, dropping to 2.56%. This improvement, coupled with a strategic shift toward super-prime borrowers, suggests stronger asset quality for credit card issuers moving forward.
The unsecured personal loan market's 15% year-over-year growth in originations deserves special attention. This expansion across all risk tiers, particularly in super-prime and below-prime segments, indicates a broadening market opportunity while maintaining disciplined risk management, as evidenced by the 33 basis point decline in delinquency rates.
A important underlying trend is the divergence in performance between prime and subprime borrowers across products. This bifurcation suggests that financial institutions are successfully executing risk-based pricing strategies while maintaining growth, which could lead to improved profit margins and lower credit losses in their lending portfolios.
The auto lending sector's modest 1.5% growth in originations, driven primarily by super-prime borrowers, reflects a cautious approach to market expansion. However, the rising delinquency rates in this segment, particularly in used vehicle financing, warrant close monitoring as they have surpassed 2009 levels.
Q4 2024 TransUnion Credit Industry Insights Report explores the latest credit trends, forecasts origination growth for the year
CHICAGO, Feb. 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Despite recent data calling into question the possibility of interest rate cuts over this year, new account originations across several credit products are still expected to grow in 2025. These findings were released today in conjunction with TransUnion’s (NYSE: TRU) newly issued Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR).
Following multiple years of depressed origination growth, largely driven by stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates and elevated home and vehicle prices, new auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans are expected to see gains in 2025. A myriad of factors, not the least of which is lenders' continued caution in their underwriting strategies, will likely temper the overall rate of growth across these products.
“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will not rush into interest rate cuts, potentially keeping rates at a level that could give consumers pause,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “However, we still believe that many consumer credit products will have higher originations in 2025. This will range from modest growth in auto and unsecured personal loans to more significant increases in mortgage.”
Originations are Expected to Grow YoY Across Many Credit Products in 2025
| Loan Product | Percent Change in Origination Growth |
| Auto | + |
| Mortgage (Purchase) | + |
| Unsecured Personal Loans | + |
Changes in originations are also impacted by trends within these lending products. A deeper dive into the origination picture for each loan product can be found below:
- One key driver of the forecasted growth in auto originations is new light vehicle sales, which have been forecasted to grow
2.8% in 2025. However, forecasted growth may be tempered as industry and consumers navigate potential policy shifts introduced by the new administration. In addition, relatively high interest rates, inflation remaining above2% , and a still recovering used vehicle supply may also mitigate auto originations growth. - Mortgage originations are forecast to increase from approximately 4.6 million in 2024 to approximately 5.7 million in 2025, with most of those being purchase originations (~3.8 million).
- Unsecured personal loan lenders are expected to continue expanding lending to riskier tiers in 2025 as the macro economy continues to moderate. Originations are expected to increase to approximately 20.8 million over the year.
TransUnion’s Q4 2024 Credit Industry Insights Report sees continued signs of stabilization across consumer credit products
A number of the signs of a more stable consumer credit environment that emerged in Q3 2024 have continued over the past quarter across the credit spectrum. Originations saw some measure of YoY growth in the most recent quarter for which data are available for auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans. In credit cards, originations saw a smaller YoY decline than in recent quarters. Delinquencies ticked down across some credit products, although others saw increases. Balances saw increases that were more in line with rates seen prior to 2020 than in the years since.
“In Q4 2024, we saw several signals inching towards a return to more typical patterns within the consumer credit market,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of research at TransUnion. “Originations ticked up across mortgage and auto and saw more significant growth in unsecured personal loans. In contrast, delinquencies presented more of a mixed bag, seeing increases in auto and mortgage, while at the same time decreasing for unsecured personal loans and credit cards. We will be looking for additional signs of improved performance in these markets moving forward.”
To learn more about the latest consumer credit trends, register for the Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report webinar. Read on for more specific insights about credit cards, personal loans, auto loans and mortgages.
Serious consumer-level delinquencies decline year-over-year for first time since 2020 in card
Q4 2024 CIIR Credit Card Summary
More signs of a return to equilibrium were present in the credit card market in Q4 2024. Consumer-level 90+ days past due delinquencies ticked down by 3 basis points YoY to
Instant Analysis
“Prior predictions had anticipated a moderation in delinquency rates in Q1 2025. The peak was pulled forward by the effect of recalibrated risk strategies and disproportionate originations in prime and above segments. At the same time, there are signs that consumer demand for credit cards may be increasing, as year-over-year originations declines are getting smaller, and some risk tiers, such as super prime, are increasing for the first time in several quarters.”
- Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Credit Card Trends
| Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard) | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 | ||||||||
| Number of Credit Cards (Bankcards) | 561.5 million | 542.6 million | 518.4 million | 483.7 million | ||||||||
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) | 2.56% | |||||||||||
| Total Credit Card Balances | ||||||||||||
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $6,580 | |||||||||||
| Number of Consumers Carrying a Balance | 173.1 million | 169.9 million | 166.0 million | 159.0 million | ||||||||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 19.1 million | 20.1 million | 21.6 million | 19.8 million | ||||||||
| Average New Account Credit Lines* | $5,702 | |||||||||||
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
For more credit card industry information, click here for episodes of Extra Credit: A Card and Banking Podcast by TransUnion.
Growth in unsecured personal loan originations leads to record volumes, total balances
Q4 2024 CIIR Unsecured Personal Loan Summary
The positive trend in unsecured personal loans continued for another quarter. Originations for Q3 2024, the most recent quarter of data available, stood at 5.8 million – an increase of
Instant Analysis
“The unsecured personal loan market continued its rebound with originations growing year-over-year across risk tiers, and with strong double-digit growth for most of them. Additionally, borrower-level delinquencies still saw declines year-over-year. This was due to loans being issued across the credit spectrum – especially super prime – and from the subprime delinquency rate continuing to fall even as lending has opened back up to this segment. With the growth to date and optimism from lenders, we expect to see this as the beginning of a period of expansion.”
- Liz Pagel, senior vice president of consumer lending at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Unsecured Personal Loan Trends
| Personal Loan Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 |
| Total Balances | ||||
| Number of Unsecured Personal Loans | 29.6 million | 28.1 million | 27.0 million | 22.8 million |
| Number of Consumers with Unsecured Personal Loans | 24.5 million | 23.5 million | 22.5 million | 19.9 million |
| Borrower-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 3.57% | |||
| Average Debt Per Borrower | $11,607 | |||
| Average Account Balance | $8,496 | |||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 5.8 million | 5.0 million | 5.6 million | 5.1 million |
*Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional unsecured personal loan industry metrics.
Mortgage delinquencies up year-over-year, yet remain low by historical standards
Q4 2024 CIIR Mortgage Loan Summary
Originations grew
Instant Analysis
“Despite recent quarters of growth, origination volumes continue to be depressed by historical standards. Recent Federal Reserve indications that interest rate reductions may occur more slowly may result in decelerated growth in 2025. Year-over-year increases in delinquency continue to be worth monitoring closely. Yet, even despite a relatively steady series of year-over-year increases in recent quarters, the rate remains extremely low relative to historical standards.”
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Mortgage Trends
| Mortgage Lending Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 | |||
| Number of Mortgage Loans | 53.1 million | 52.9 million | 52.6 million | 51.2 million | |||
| Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.29% | ||||||
| Prior Quarter Originations* | 1.2 million | 1.2 million | 1.5 million | 3.4 million | |||
| Average Loan Amounts of New Mortgage Loans* | $354,943 | ||||||
| Average Balance per Consumer | $263,923 | ||||||
| Total Balances of All Mortgage Loans | |||||||
* Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
Click here for additional mortgage industry metrics. Click here for a Q4 2024 mortgage industry infographic.
Auto originations up year-over-year driven by growth in super prime
Q4 2024 CIIR Auto Loan Summary
Originations were up
Instant Analysis
“Super prime was the underlying driver of auto originations growth in Q4 2024, and will likely continue in 2025. Affordability continues to be an issue for the used vehicle market and for below prime consumers, impacted by higher rates and cross-wallet inflation. This is unlikely to materially improve until we have more certainty around used vehicle inventory and interest rates. Delinquencies have now inched past highs previously seen in 2009, primarily driven by increases among below-prime risk tiers, and we will be monitoring them moving forward.”
- Satyan Merchant, senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion
Q4 2024 Auto Loan Trends
| Auto Lending Metric | Q4 2024 | Q4 2023 | Q4 2022 | Q4 2021 |
| Total Auto Loan Accounts | 80.4 million | 80.4 million | 80.2 million | 81.4 million |
| Prior Quarter Originations1 | 6.4 million | 6.3 million | 6.5 million | 7.2 million |
| Average Monthly Payment NEW2 | $749 | |||
| Average Monthly Payment USED2 | $523 | |||
| Average Balance per Consumer | $24,373 | |||
| Average Amount Financed on New Auto Loans2 | $42,023 | |||
| Average Amount Financed on Used Auto Loans2 | $26,135 | |||
| Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (60+ DPD) | 1.67% |
1Note: Originations are viewed one quarter in arrears to account for reporting lag.
2Data from S&P Global MobilityAutoCreditInsight, Q4 2024 data only for months of October & November.
Click here for additional auto industry metrics. Click here for a Q4 2024 auto industry infographic.
For more information about the report, please register for the Q4 2024 Credit Industry Insight Report webinar.
About TransUnion (NYSE: TRU)
TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this with a Tru™ picture of each person: an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care. Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.
http://www.transunion.com/business
| Contact | Dave Blumberg |
| TransUnion | |
| dblumberg@transunion.com | |
| Telephone | 312-972-6646 |
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