JULY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: HARRIS RESETS RACE TO PRE-DEBATE LEVELS FOLLOWING HER ENTRANCE; TRUMP HOLDS LEAD

Rhea-AI Summary

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll reveals a reset in the presidential race following Vice President Kamala Harris's anointment as the Democratic frontrunner. Trump now leads Harris by 3 points (48% to 45%), down from his 7-point lead over Biden in June. Key findings include:

- 79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down
- Harris enjoys a 9-point jump in favorability
- Both Trump and Harris have similar favorability ratings (48% and 47% respectively)
- 24% of voters say they could change their mind
- Harris performs better among minority and women voters
- Majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives
- 66% believe Israel should retaliate against Hezbollah attacks

The poll, conducted July 26-28, 2024, surveyed 2,196 registered voters and covers public opinion on candidates and GOP policy platform post-Republican National Convention.

Positive

• Harris's entrance as Democratic frontrunner narrows Trump's lead from 7 to 3 points
• Harris enjoys a 9-point jump in favorability following her anointment
• 79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down
• Harris performs better among minority voters with support from 67% of Black and 47% of Hispanic voters
• Majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives across party lines

Negative

• Trump still leads Harris by 3 points in the presidential race
• Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%
• 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is worsening
• 67% of voters believe Harris will continue Biden administration policies, which may not align with electorate preferences on key issues
• 45% of voters approve of J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, but half say it has no impact on their vote

Political Analyst

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll reveals significant shifts in the political landscape following President Biden's decision to step down and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. This move has reset the presidential race, with Trump now leading Harris by a narrow 3% margin, down from his previous 7% lead over Biden.

Harris's entrance has energized the Democratic base, with 92% of Democrats approving of Biden's endorsement. This has translated into a 5% increase in Democratic voter support for their party's candidate. Notably, Harris has made inroads with key demographic groups, securing plurality support among women (48%), Black (67%) and Hispanic (47%) voters.

However, Harris faces challenges in differentiating herself from the Biden administration. 67% of voters believe she will continue Biden's policies on important issues like taxes, inflation, immigration and energy. This perception could be a double-edged sword, as Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%.

The poll also highlights a potential disconnect between Harris's perceived policy positions and voter preferences. Majorities oppose policies such as open borders (67%), ending private healthcare options (68%) and mandating electric vehicles (72%), yet many voters believe Harris supports these initiatives.

With 24% of voters, including 41% of Independents, still undecided, the race remains highly competitive. The coming months will be important for both candidates to solidify their support and address key voter concerns, particularly around the economy and inflation.

Electoral Strategist

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll presents a fascinating snapshot of the evolving 2024 presidential race. The Democratic Party's strategic pivot to Kamala Harris as their candidate has effectively neutralized the age issue that was plaguing Biden's campaign. This move has been met with overwhelming approval, with 79% of voters supporting Biden's decision to step down.

Harris's entry has revitalized the Democratic base, evidenced by the 5% increase in Democratic voter support. Moreover, her appeal to minority voters could be a game-changer, potentially solidifying the Democratic coalition.

However, the race remains incredibly tight, with Trump holding a slim 3% lead. The 24% of voters who say they could change their minds represent a critical battleground. Both campaigns will need to craft targeted strategies to win over these undecided voters, particularly the 41% of Independents who remain uncommitted.

The poll also reveals potential vulnerabilities for Harris. Her perceived alignment with Biden's policies (67% of voters see continuity) could be problematic given Biden's low approval ratings. Additionally, the disconnect between her perceived stance on issues like open borders, healthcare and electric vehicles and voter preferences on these topics presents both a challenge and an opportunity for messaging refinement.

For the Trump campaign, the challenge will be to maintain their lead while addressing the fact that more voters see Harris as having the right temperament and being more trustworthy. Their strategy may focus on emphasizing Trump's perceived strengths as a "fighter" and someone who "gets things done."

As we move closer to the election, watch for both campaigns to intensify their efforts to sway undecided voters and solidify their base, with a particular focus on economic issues, which remain top of mind for most voters.

79% OF VOTERS APPROVE OF BIDEN'S DECISION TO STEP DOWN

KAMALA HARRIS ENJOYS A 9 POINT JUMP IN FAVORABILITY FOLLOWING HER ANOINTMENT AS THE FRONTRUNNER DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE

TRUMP LEADS HARRIS BY 3 POINTS, DOWN FROM HIS JUNE 7 POINT LEAD ON BIDEN

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., July 30, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. The new poll found that after an unprecedented month in American politics that witnessed a failed assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden stepping aside in favor of Vice President Harris running as the Democratic candidate in November, the horserace has reset to a 3-point lead for Trump, 48% to 45%, with 7% still undecided.

Both Trump and Harris have benefited from a jump in favorability due to these events, now tied at 48% and 47% favorability, respectively. Nevertheless, with 24% of voters saying they could change their mind, the matchup is highly competitive.

"The Democratic Party has recovered from what was a Titanic — the iceberg of age was sinking them rapidly," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Kamala Harris has come with lifeboats to put the race back where it was."

The July poll covers public opinion on the candidates and the GOP policy platform coming out of the Republican National Convention. Download key results here.

HARRIS RE-ENERGIZES DEMOCRATS

• 79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down, and 55% approve of his endorsement of Harris including 92% of Democrats.
• Compared to June, more Democrats say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (+5 points), and less Independents are unsure of who they would vote for (-10 points). Most of those undecided Independent voters say they would vote for Harris (Harris: +7 points; Trump: +3 points).
• Harris performs better among minority voters with the support of a plurality of women (48%), Black (67%), and Hispanic (47%) voters.
• 24% of voters say they have not made up their mind on who they will vote for, including 20% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans, and 41% of Independents.

BIDEN'S DECISION TO STEP ASIDE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON APPROVAL RATINGS

• Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%, up 2 points from June.
• 54% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president, up 2 points from June. Among minority voters, 53% of Hispanic voters and 40% of Black voters approve.
• Across political parties, inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally. 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is worsening, especially among women (53%), Hispanic (51%), and rural (57%) voters.
• 65% of Black voters approve of the Democratic Party, while 59% of white voters and 52% of Hispanic voters disapprove.

HARRIS WINS ON PERSONALITY BUT IS SEEN AS CONTINUITY OF BIDEN, DIVERGING FROM ELECTORATE ON KEY POLICY PREFERENCES

• Between the two candidates, more voters believe Harris has the right temperament, is more trustworthy, and is more honest, while more voters perceive Trump as a fighter and someone who will get things done.
• 67% of voters say Harris will continue Biden administration policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy. Roughly half believe she is politically aligned with Biden.
• A majority of voters oppose open borders (67%), ending private healthcare options (68%), and mandating the replacement of gas cars with electric vehicles (72%) — but a majority believe Harris supports those policies (borders: 69%; healthcare: 53%; electric vehicles: 72%).
• Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Harris.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT GOP PLATFORM COMING OUT OF THE CONVENTION

• A majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives like protecting social security and Medicare, ending inflation, and stopping violence and crime, including over 89% of Republicans and over 79% of Independents across every policy issue.
• 33% of voters think the Republican Party left out abortion from its policy platform because the party believes it is a state decision. A plurality of Democratic (31%), 18-24 year-old (23%), and Black (24%) voters believe the party has a secret plan to ban abortion.
• 45% of voters and 76% of Republicans approve of J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, but roughly half of voters say the selection has no impact on their vote.

VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL IN THE FACE OF HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS, WANT GAZA TO BE ADMINISTERED BY ARAB NATIONS

• 66% of voters believe Israel should retaliate if Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into the north (age 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 82%).
• 82% of voters say Hamas should be removed from power in Gaza, consistent with June sentiment.
• A plurality of voters (38%) think Gaza should be administered by a new authority set up through negotiations with Arab nations.

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted within the United States on July 26-28, 2024, among 2,196 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com 

 

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FAQ

What is the current polling gap between Trump and Harris for the 2024 presidential race according to the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll?

According to the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, Trump currently leads Harris by 3 points, 48% to 45%, with 7% still undecided.

How has Kamala Harris's favorability changed since becoming the Democratic frontrunner for the 2024 election?

Kamala Harris has enjoyed a 9-point jump in favorability following her anointment as the frontrunner Democratic candidate, with her current favorability rating at 47%.

What percentage of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down from the 2024 presidential race?

79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down from the 2024 presidential race.

How do voters perceive Harris's policy alignment with the Biden administration?

67% of voters believe Harris will continue Biden administration policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy. Roughly half believe she is politically aligned with Biden.

What is the current approval rating for Biden according to the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll?

According to the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%, up 2 points from June.