S&P Global Mobility: Solid finish to close out 2024 US auto sales
S&P Global Mobility forecasts December 2024 U.S. auto sales to reach 1.45 million units, maintaining a 16.5 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The fourth quarter's selling rate average of 16.4 million units marks the highest quarterly average since Q2 2021. For 2025, sales volumes are projected to reach 16.18 million units, a modest 1.2% increase from 2024's estimated 16.0 million units.
The report highlights ongoing challenges including high vehicle pricing, though expected to decline, and sticky inflation despite anticipated lower interest rates. Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share has consistently exceeded 8% since June, with December projections exceeding 9.0%, potentially driven by anticipated withdrawal of Federal EV incentives in 2025.
S&P Global Mobility prevede che le vendite di auto negli Stati Uniti a dicembre 2024 raggiungeranno 1,45 milioni di unità, mantenendo un SAAR di 16,5 milioni (tasso annuale stagionalmente aggiustato). La media del tasso di vendita del quarto trimestre, pari a 16,4 milioni di unità, rappresenta la media trimestrale più alta da Q2 2021. Per il 2025, i volumi di vendita sono previsti a 16,18 milioni di unità, con un modesto aumento dell'1,2% rispetto ai 16,0 milioni di unità stimati per il 2024.
Il rapporto evidenzia le sfide in corso, inclusi i prezzi elevati dei veicoli, sebbene previsti in calo, e un'inflazione persistente nonostante la diminuzione dei tassi di interesse attesi. La quota di Veicoli Elettrici a Batteria (BEV) ha costantemente superato l'8% da giugno, con proiezioni di dicembre superiori al 9,0%, potenzialmente guidata dall'attesa di un ritiro degli incentivi federali per i VE nel 2025.
S&P Global Mobility pronostica que las ventas de automóviles en EE.UU. en diciembre de 2024 alcanzarán 1,45 millones de unidades, manteniendo un SAAR de 16,5 millones (tasa anual ajustada estacionalmente). La media del ritmo de ventas del cuarto trimestre de 16,4 millones de unidades marca el promedio trimestral más alto desde el segundo trimestre de 2021. Para 2025, se proyecta que los volúmenes de ventas alcancen 16,18 millones de unidades, un modesto aumento del 1,2% en comparación con los 16,0 millones de unidades estimados para 2024.
El informe destaca los desafíos continuos, incluyendo los altos precios de los vehículos, aunque se espera que disminuyan, y una inflación persistente a pesar de las tasas de interés más bajas anticipadas. La participación de Vehículos Eléctricos de Batería (BEV) ha superado constantemente el 8% desde junio, con proyecciones de diciembre que superan el 9,0%, impulsadas potencialmente por la retirada anticipada de incentivos federales para vehículos eléctricos en 2025.
S&P 글로벌 모빌리티는 2024년 12월 미국 자동차 판매량이 145만 대에 이를 것으로 예상하며, 1650만 SAAR (계절 조정 연율) 유지할 것이라고 합니다. 4분기 판매 속도 평균인 164만 대는 2021년 2분기 이후 가장 높은 분기 평균을 나타냅니다. 2025년에는 판매량이 1618만 대에 이를 것으로 예상되며, 이는 2024년 예상 1600만 대 대비 1.2%의 겸손한 증가입니다.
보고서는 높은 차량 가격과 같은 지속적인 도전 과제를 강조하고 있으며, 가격은 하락할 것으로 예상되지만, 금리가 낮아질 것으로 보이는 가운데 여전히 인플레이션이 지속되고 있습니다. 배터리 전기차 (BEV)의 점유율은 6월 이후 지속적으로 8%를 초과하고 있으며, 12월 예상치는 9.0%를 초과할 것으로 보이며, 이는 2025년 연방 EV 인센티브 철회에 대한 기대에 의해 촉진될 수 있습니다.
S&P Global Mobility prévoit que les ventes de voitures aux États-Unis atteindront 1,45 million d'unités en décembre 2024, maintenant un SAAR de 16,5 millions (taux annuel désaisonnalisé). La moyenne du taux de vente du quatrième trimestre de 16,4 millions d'unités marque la plus haute moyenne trimestrielle depuis le deuxième trimestre 2021. Pour 2025, les volumes de ventes devraient atteindre 16,18 millions d'unités, soit une modeste augmentation de 1,2% par rapport aux 16,0 millions d'unités estimées pour 2024.
Le rapport met en lumière les défis en cours, y compris des prix de véhicules élevés, bien qu'une baisse soit attendue, et une inflation persistante malgré des taux d'intérêt anticipés plus bas. La part des Véhicules Électriques à Batterie (BEV) a constamment dépassé 8% depuis juin, avec des prévisions en décembre dépassant 9,0%, potentiellement alimentées par le retrait anticipé des incitations fédérales pour les VE en 2025.
S&P Global Mobility prognostiziert, dass die Autoverkäufe in den USA im Dezember 2024 1,45 Millionen Einheiten erreichen werden, bei einem 16,5 Millionen SAAR (saisonal bereinigte Jahresrate). Die durchschnittliche Verkaufsrate im vierten Quartal von 16,4 Millionen Einheiten stellt den höchsten quartalsweisen Durchschnitt seit dem zweiten Quartal 2021 dar. Für 2025 wird ein Verkaufsvolumen von 16,18 Millionen Einheiten prognostiziert, was einem bescheidenen Anstieg von 1,2% im Vergleich zu den geschätzten 16,0 Millionen Einheiten für 2024 entspricht.
Der Bericht hebt die anhaltenden Herausforderungen hervor, einschließlich hoher Fahrzeugpreise, die jedoch voraussichtlich sinken werden, und einer hartnäckigen Inflation, trotz der erwarteten niedrigeren Zinssätze. Der Anteil der Batteriebetriebenen Elektrofahrzeuge (BEV) hat seit Juni konstant 8% überschritten, wobei die Prognosen für Dezember über 9,0% liegen, was potenziell durch den erwarteten Rückzug der bundesstaatlichen EV-Anreize im Jahr 2025 vorangetrieben wird.
- Q4 2024 selling rate average of 16.4M units is highest since Q2 2021
- Projected 1.2% growth in auto sales for 2025
- BEV market share consistently above 8% since June 2024, expected to exceed 9% in December
- Vehicle affordability issues expected to persist in 2025
- Inflation levels anticipated to remain sticky despite lower interest rates
- Uncertain consumer environment limiting growth prospects
Insights
The auto industry's December performance reflects a robust end to 2024, with projected sales of
Key metrics reveal critical market dynamics:
- Light truck SAAR of 13.3 million units demonstrates continued consumer preference for larger vehicles
- BEV market share exceeding
8% consistently since June, with December potentially reaching9% - The projected 2025 volume of 16.18 million units suggests market stabilization
The industry faces a complex balancing act between inventory management, pricing pressures and shifting consumer demand. The anticipated decline in vehicle pricing and lower interest rates could partially offset affordability constraints, but structural challenges persist. The sustained growth in BEV share, despite inventory constraints, indicates a fundamental shift in market composition that will influence industry dynamics through 2025.
The auto sales forecast reveals broader economic implications beyond the automotive sector. The projected 16.4 million Q4 2024 SAAR suggests resilient consumer spending despite elevated interest rates. However, the modest
Three critical economic factors emerge:
- Sticky inflation continues to impact consumer purchasing power
- Expected downward shift in interest rates could improve financing conditions
- Inventory normalization suggests supply chain improvements
The transition in federal EV incentives could create market disruption in early 2025, potentially accelerating Q4 2024 sales but creating a temporary demand void. This policy shift, combined with broader economic uncertainties, suggests a complex operating environment that will test industry resilience and pricing power.
January – October sales were moderate, but December auto sales are expected to build on the relatively strong November result.
Looking forward, S&P Global Mobility projects US sales volumes to reach 16.18 million units in 2025, an estimated increase of
"2025 brings with it mixed opportunities and uncertainty for the auto industry as a new administration and policy proposals take hold," said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility. "Unfortunately, the new vehicle affordability issues that coalesced to constrain auto demand levels for much of 2024 will not be resolved quickly in 2025. Vehicle pricing levels are expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain sticky, and new vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful management is expected too. Combined with an uneasy consumer, we project this translates to mild growth prospects for auto sales."
US Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
Dec 24 (Est) | Nov 24 | Dec 23 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,455,000 | 1,360,060 | 1,458,953 |
In millions, SAAR | 16.5 | 16.5 | 15.9 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.3 | 13.5 | 12.8 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV share of sales has been above
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
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