S&P Global Market Intelligence Report Finds Commercial Real Estate Lenders Feeling Stress but Weathering the Storm
S&P Global Market Intelligence has released a report analyzing commercial real estate (CRE) market challenges. The study highlights that while higher interest rates and post-pandemic behavior changes are pressuring CRE borrowers, the impact varies across asset classes. The report reveals that approximately $950 billion of CRE mortgages are due in 2024, with rates nearly 200 basis points below current origination rates. While increased defaults are expected, particularly in the office segment, analysts suggest the stress won't be severe enough to threaten the US economy. Despite concerns, life insurers' mortgage loan holdings continue reaching record highs in 2024.
S&P Global Market Intelligence ha pubblicato un rapporto che analizza le sfide del mercato immobiliare commerciale (CRE). Lo studio sottolinea che, sebbene gli alti tassi d'interesse e i cambiamenti comportamentali post-pandemia stiano mettendo sotto pressione i mutuatari del CRE, l'impatto varia tra le diverse classi di attivi. Il rapporto rivela che circa 950 miliardi di dollari di mutui CRE scadono nel 2024, con tassi quasi 200 punti base al di sotto delle attuali tariffe di origine. Sebbene ci si aspetti un aumento dei default, in particolare nel segmento degli uffici, gli analisti suggeriscono che lo stress non sarà sufficiente a minacciare l'economia statunitense. Nonostante i timori, le partecipazioni in mutui delle compagnie assicurative vita continuano a raggiungere livelli record nel 2024.
S&P Global Market Intelligence ha publicado un informe que analiza los desafíos del mercado inmobiliario comercial (CRE). El estudio destaca que, si bien las tasas de interés más altas y los cambios en el comportamiento post-pandemia están presionando a los prestatarios del CRE, el impacto varía entre las distintas clases de activos. El informe revela que aproximadamente 950 mil millones de dólares en hipotecas CRE vencerán en 2024, con tasas casi 200 puntos básicos por debajo de las tasas de originación actuales. Si bien se esperan más incumplimientos, especialmente en el segmento de oficinas, los analistas sugieren que la presión no será lo suficientemente severa como para amenazar la economía de EE. UU. A pesar de las preocupaciones, las participaciones hipotecarias de las aseguradoras de vida siguen alcanzando niveles récord en 2024.
S&P 글로벌 마켓 인텔리전스는 상업용 부동산(CRE) 시장의 도전에 대해 분석한 보고서를 발표했습니다. 이 연구는 높은 금리와 팬데믹 이후 행동 변화가 CRE 대출자에게 압박을 가하고 있지만, 그 영향은 자산 클래스에 따라 다르다고 강조합니다. 이 보고서는 약 9500억 달러의 CRE 모기지가 2024년에 만기가 된다고 밝혔으며, 이자율은 현재의 발행률보다 거의 200bp 낮습니다. 특히 사무실 부문에서 더 많은 채무 불이행이 예상되지만, 분석가들은 이러한 압박이 미국 경제를 위협할 만큼 심각하지는 않을 것이라고 제안합니다. 우려에도 불구하고, 생명보험사의 모기지 대출 보유액은 2024년에 계속해서 기록적인 수준에 도달하고 있습니다.
S&P Global Market Intelligence a publié un rapport analysant les défis du marché immobilier commercial (CRE). L'étude souligne que, bien que des taux d'intérêt plus élevés et des changements de comportement post-pandémie mettent les emprunteurs du CRE sous pression, l'impact varie selon les classes d'actifs. Le rapport révèle qu'environ 950 milliards de dollars de prêts hypothécaires CRE arrivent à échéance en 2024, avec des taux près de 200 points de base inférieurs aux taux d'origine actuels. Bien qu'une augmentation des défauts soit prévue, en particulier dans le segment des bureaux, les analystes suggèrent que la pression ne sera pas suffisamment grave pour menacer l'économie américaine. Malgré les inquiétudes, les avoirs en prêts hypothécaires des compagnies d'assurance-vie continuent d'atteindre des niveaux records en 2024.
S&P Global Market Intelligence hat einen Bericht veröffentlicht, der die Herausforderungen des Marktes für gewerbliche Immobilien (CRE) analysiert. Die Studie hebt hervor, dass höhere Zinssätze und Verhaltensänderungen nach der Pandemie die Kreditnehmer im CRE unter Druck setzen, der Einfluss jedoch zwischen den verschiedenen Vermögensklassen variiert. Der Bericht zeigt, dass etwa 950 Milliarden Dollar an CRE-Hypotheken im Jahr 2024 fällig werden, wobei die Zinssätze fast 200 Basispunkte unter den aktuellen Ursprungszinsen liegen. Während ein Anstieg der Zahlungsrückstände, insbesondere im Bürosektor, erwartet wird, schlagen Analysten vor, dass der Druck nicht schwerwiegend genug sein wird, um die US-Wirtschaft zu gefährden. Trotz der Bedenken erreichen die Hypothekendarlehensbestände von Lebensversicherern im Jahr 2024 weiterhin Rekordhöhen.
- Life insurers' mortgage loan holdings reaching record highs in 2024
- Office REIT valuations have improved from 2023 lows
- Market stress not expected to threaten overall US economy
- $950 billion in CRE mortgages maturing in 2024 face ~200bps higher refinancing rates
- Expected increase in defaults, particularly in office segment
- Reduced credit availability and higher borrowing costs for CRE loans
- Office REITs trading at significant discounts to NAV
Insights
This comprehensive market analysis reveals significant challenges ahead for commercial real estate (CRE). The projected
The market is experiencing a structural shift rather than a cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic behavioral changes, particularly in office utilization, combined with the interest rate environment, suggest a fundamental reassessment of certain CRE asset values. However, the stress appears manageable for the financial system, with banks and insurers maintaining strong positions despite increased regulatory scrutiny. The gradual nature of this adjustment provides time for market participants to adapt their strategies and manage exposures.
The report suggests a controlled deterioration rather than a systemic crisis in CRE lending. Key risk factors include:
- Higher refinancing costs affecting debt service coverage ratios
- Reduced credit availability constraining refinancing options
- Asset-specific risks, particularly in the office sector
Despite these challenges, the financial system appears well-positioned to absorb potential losses. Life insurers' continued record-high mortgage holdings indicate institutional confidence in the sector's long-term fundamentals. The gradual nature of loan maturities provides a buffer against sudden market disruptions, suggesting a manageable stress scenario rather than a systemic shock.
In this new report, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Financial Institutions Research Team discusses how insurers, banks and their regulators are responding to concerns over potential stress in the commercial real estate (CRE) market. The report includes details on recent investment activity from life insurers in the CRE market and expectations for future loss content banks will record from the CRE segment. The report also highlights how publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) can offer some insight into market conditions since they trade daily.
"Commercial real estate borrowers' mettle will be tested over the coming year as they seek to refinance loans coming due. Many borrowers will find credit less available or at least significantly more expensive, leading to more defaults, particularly in the office segment, but not all CRE loans face the same fate," said Nathan Stovall, director of financial institutions research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Any pain should not be great enough to spur deleveraging in the financial system and threaten the US economy."
Key highlights from the report include:
- Banks with elevated CRE exposures have faced scrutiny from regulators and investors. Banks will feel some pain in their CRE books, particularly as borrowers seeking to refinance maturing credits find it more difficult to access credit, or they will at least face a significantly higher debt service given the increase in interest rates.
- S&P Global Market Intelligence's analysis of property records nationwide found that approximately
$950 billion - Office REITs continue to trade at vast discounts to their estimated net asset value estimates, but valuations have improved from the low point in 2023.
- Despite asset quality concerns, life insurers holdings of mortgage loans have continued to reach record highs in 2024.
To request a copy of Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Weathering the Storm, please contact press.mi@spglobal.com.
S&P Global Market Intelligence's opinions, quotes, and credit-related and other analyses are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security.
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S&P Global Market Intelligence
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SOURCE S&P Global Market Intelligence
FAQ
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