S&P Global: Emerging Markets Set to Drive Global Economic Growth in the Next Decade
S&P Global's latest Look Forward research series predicts that emerging markets will contribute about 65% of global economic growth by 2035. The report, titled 'Emerging Markets: A Decisive Decade', highlights key findings:
- Emerging markets are expected to average 4.06% GDP growth through 2035, compared to 1.59% in advanced economies.
- Progress in increasing income levels will be uneven, with median GDP per capita in the largest emerging markets reaching only 31% of developed markets by 2030.
- Public debt is rising in most emerging sovereigns, but they are less vulnerable to global financial shocks than in previous decades.
- Emerging markets must invest in skills and manufacturing automation to compete globally.
- These markets are set to develop nearly 6,000 gigawatts of clean energy projects by 2040, requiring over US$5 trillion in investments.
La recente serie di ricerche Look Forward di S&P Global prevede che i mercati emergenti contribuiranno per circa il 65% alla crescita economica globale entro il 2035. Il rapporto, intitolato 'Mercati Emergenti: Un Decennio Decisivo', evidenzia i risultati chiave:
- Si prevede che i mercati emergenti registreranno una crescita media del 4,06% del PIL fino al 2035, rispetto all'1,59% delle economie avanzate.
- I progressi nell'aumento dei livelli di reddito saranno disomogenei, con il PIL pro capite mediano nei maggiori mercati emergenti che raggiungerà solo il 31% di quello dei mercati sviluppati entro il 2030.
- Il debito pubblico sta aumentando nella maggior parte dei sovrani emergenti, ma sono meno vulnerabili agli shock finanziari globali rispetto ai decenni precedenti.
- I mercati emergenti devono investire in competenze e automazione della produzione per competere a livello globale.
- Questi mercati si prevede svilupperanno quasi 6.000 gigawatt di progetti di energia pulita entro il 2040, richiedendo oltre 5 trilioni di dollari in investimenti.
La última serie de investigaciones Look Forward de S&P Global predice que los mercados emergentes contribuirán con aproximadamente el 65% del crecimiento económico global para 2035. El informe, titulado 'Mercados Emergentes: Una Década Decisiva', destaca los hallazgos clave:
- Se espera que los mercados emergentes promedien un 4.06% de crecimiento del PIB hasta 2035, en comparación con el 1.59% en economías avanzadas.
- El progreso en el aumento de los niveles de ingresos será desigual, con el PIB per cápita mediano en los mayores mercados emergentes alcanzando solo el 31% de los mercados desarrollados para 2030.
- La deuda pública está aumentando en la mayoría de los soberanos emergentes, pero son menos vulnerables a los choques financieros globales que en décadas anteriores.
- Los mercados emergentes deben invertir en habilidades y automatización de la fabricación para competir a nivel global.
- Se espera que estos mercados desarrollen casi 6,000 gigawatts de proyectos de energía limpia para 2040, requiriendo más de 5 billones de dólares en inversiones.
S&P Global의 최신 Look Forward 연구 시리즈는 신흥 시장이 2035년까지 글로벌 경제 성장의 약 65%에 기여할 것이라고 예측합니다. '신흥 시장: 결정적인 10년'이라는 제목의 보고서는 주요 발견 사항을 강조합니다:
- 신흥 시장은 2035년까지 평균 4.06%의 GDP 성장률을 기록할 것으로 예상되며, 선진 경제의 1.59%와 비교됩니다.
- 소득 수준의 향상은 고르지 않을 것으로 예상되며, 최대 신흥 시장의 중위 GDP는 2030년까지 선진 시장의 31%에 불과할 것으로 보입니다.
- 대부분의 신흥 국가에서 공공 부채가 증가하고 있지만, 그들은 이전 수십 년보다 글로벌 금융 충격에 덜 취약합니다.
- 신흥 시장은 글로벌 경쟁을 위해 기술과 제조 자동화에 투자해야 합니다.
- 이 시장들은 2040년까지 거의 6,000GW의 청정 에너지 프로젝트를 개발할 것으로 예상되며, 5조 달러 이상의 투자가 필요합니다.
La dernière série de recherches Look Forward de S&P Global prédit que les marchés émergents contribueront à hauteur d'environ 65% à la croissance économique mondiale d'ici 2035. Le rapport, intitulé 'Marchés Émergents : Une Décennie Décisive', met en avant les principales conclusions :
- On s'attend à ce que les marchés émergents affichent une croissance moyenne du PIB de 4,06% jusqu'en 2035, contre 1,59% dans les économies avancées.
- Les progrès en matière d'augmentation des niveaux de revenus seront inégaux, avec un PIB par habitant médian dans les plus grands marchés émergents atteignant seulement 31% de celui des marchés développés d'ici 2030.
- La dette publique augmente dans la plupart des pays émergents, mais ils sont moins vulnérables aux chocs financiers mondiaux qu'au cours des décennies précédentes.
- Les marchés émergents doivent investir dans les compétences et l'automatisation de la fabrication pour rester compétitifs à l'échelle mondiale.
- Ces marchés devraient développer près de 6 000 gigawatts de projets d'énergie propre d'ici 2040, nécessitant plus de 5 billions de dollars d'investissements.
Die neueste Look Forward Forschung von S&P Global prognostiziert, dass Schwellenländer bis 2035 etwa 65% zum globalen Wirtschaftswachstum beitragen werden. Der Bericht mit dem Titel 'Schwellenländer: Ein entscheidendes Jahrzehnt' hebt die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse hervor:
- Es wird erwartet, dass Schwellenländer eine durchschnittliche Wachstumsrate des BIP von 4,06% bis 2035 aufweisen, während es in fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften nur 1,59% beträgt.
- Der Fortschritt bei der Steigerung der Einkommensniveaus wird ungleichmäßig verlaufen, wobei das mediane BIP pro Kopf in den größten Schwellenländern bis 2030 nur 31% der entwickelten Märkte erreichen wird.
- Die Staatsverschuldung steigt in den meisten Schwellenländern, aber sie sind weniger anfällig für globale finanzielle Schocks als in früheren Jahrzehnten.
- Schwellenländer müssen in Fähigkeiten und Automatisierung der Fertigung investieren, um international konkurrenzfähig zu sein.
- Diese Märkte werden voraussichtlich bis 2040 fast 6.000 Gigawatt sauberer Energieprojekte entwickeln, was Investitionen von über 5 Billionen US-Dollar erfordert.
- Emerging markets expected to contribute 65% of global economic growth by 2035
- Projected average GDP growth of 4.06% through 2035 for emerging markets
- Emerging markets less vulnerable to global financial shocks than in previous decades
- Potential development of 6,000 gigawatts of clean energy projects by 2040
- Uneven progress in increasing income levels among emerging markets
- Rising public debt in most emerging sovereigns through 2030
- Emerging markets face competition from cheap labor in frontier economies and increased mechanization in developed economies
Insights
This report presents a compelling outlook for emerging markets, projecting them to drive about
Key points to consider:
- Asian emerging markets, including China, India, Vietnam and the Philippines, are expected to lead this growth.
- Malaysia stands out positively among peers, while Brazil, Indonesia and India are well-positioned.
- The projected
$5 trillion investment in clean energy projects by 2040 presents significant opportunities and challenges. - Rising public debt in emerging markets is balanced by improved capacity to self-finance and reduced vulnerability to global financial shocks.
However, investors should note the uneven progress in income levels, with the median GDP per capita in large emerging markets expected to remain below a third of developed markets by 2030. This disparity may impact consumer markets and economic stability.
S&P Global's report offers valuable insights for investors looking to capitalize on emerging market growth. The projected
- Focus on sectors benefiting from supply chain reconfiguration and domestic market expansion.
- Consider the
$5 trillion clean energy investment opportunity, but be aware of policy and market-specific factors influencing renewable projects. - Monitor public debt levels and improved financial resilience when assessing sovereign risk.
- Look for companies investing in skills development and manufacturing automation to maintain competitiveness.
The uneven income growth across emerging markets suggests a need for careful market selection and potential for differentiated consumer strategies. Long-term investors should weigh the growth potential against persistent income disparities and geopolitical risks.
By 2035, emerging markets will play a crucial role in shaping the global economy, contributing about
Key findings from Look Forward Emerging Markets: A Decisive Decade include:
- Emerging markets will average
4.06% GDP growth through 2035, compared to1.59% in advanced economies. This growth is driven mainly by emerging markets inAsia includingChina ,India ,Vietnam , andthe Philippines . - Our macro-level data on market potential, policy favorability, institutional quality, logistics efficiency and resource availability shows how
Malaysia positively stands out among its peers;Brazil ,Indonesia andIndia are well positioned to grow.
- Progress in increasing income levels in emerging markets will be uneven: by 2030, median GDP per capita in the largest emerging markets will be less than a third (
31% ) of developed markets. - Public debt is on the rise in most emerging sovereigns through to 2030, as is their capacity to self-finance. Lower foreign currency debt, improved external positions, higher reserve buffers and increased monetary policy effectiveness signal that most emerging markets are less vulnerable to global financial shocks than in previous decades.
- Emerging markets must compete with cheap labor from frontier economies and increased mechanization in developed economies to continue their supply chain-led growth; investing in skills and manufacturing automation is key.
- Emerging markets have a unique decarbonization path, influenced by policies and market priorities shaping renewable investment models. Rising electricity demand, abundant resources, and decreasing technology costs will drive a transition towards renewable energies. By 2040, these markets are set to develop nearly 6,000 gigawatts of clean energy projects, requiring over
US in investments.$5 trillion
"In the coming decade, emerging markets are strategically positioned to drive global economic growth through the expansion of their domestic markets and to benefit from the reconfiguration of supply chains, trade and investment," said Yann Le Pallec, Head of Global Ratings Services, S&P Global Ratings. "This edition of our Look Forward Journal draws on the deep expertise across our enterprise to examine the biggest themes shaping these vibrant economies and help our customers navigate the complexities of emerging markets with confidence."
Access the full report here - Look Forward: Emerging Markets — A Decisive Decade | S&P Global (spglobal.com)
This is the latest in the Look Forward research series from the S&P Global Research Council. For more information about S&P Global Research Council, please visit: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/research-council
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