S&P Global Commodity Insights Predicts a Transformative Shift as Investments in Cleantech Outpace Fossil Fuels for the First Time
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that cleantech energy supply investments will reach $670 billion in 2025, surpassing upstream oil and gas spending for the first time. Solar PV will represent half of all cleantech investments and two-thirds of installed megawatts.
The report identifies key trends including: supply chain tensions with China's dominance in manufacturing, battery storage transformation of power markets, AI revolution in clean energy management, datacenter-driven clean energy procurement expected to reach 300 TWh annually by 2030, and ammonia's emergence in low-carbon hydrogen production. The CCUS sector is projected to secure 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity in 2025.
Despite significant investments, current levels remain insufficient to meet climate goals, particularly the target of tripling renewable capacity by 2030. China is expected to add nearly twice as many gigawatts per dollar compared to the United States, while its market share in PV module production will decline to 65% and battery cell manufacturing to 61% by 2030.
S&P Global Commodity Insights prevede che gli investimenti nella fornitura di energia cleantech raggiungeranno 670 miliardi di dollari nel 2025, superando per la prima volta la spesa nel settore petrolifero e del gas. L'energia solare fotovoltaica rappresenterà la metà di tutti gli investimenti cleantech e due terzi dei megawatt installati.
Il rapporto identifica tendenze chiave, tra cui: tensioni nella catena di approvvigionamento a causa del dominio della Cina nella produzione, la trasformazione dei mercati energetici tramite l'accumulo di batterie, la rivoluzione dell'intelligenza artificiale nella gestione dell'energia pulita, l'acquisto di energia pulita guidato dai data center che si prevede raggiunga 300 TWh all'anno entro il 2030, e l'emergere dell'ammoniaca nella produzione di idrogeno a basso impatto carbonico. Si stima che il settore CCUS garantirà una capacità di cattura di CO2 di 70 milioni di tonnellate metriche all'anno entro il 2025.
Nonostante significativi investimenti, i livelli attuali rimangono insufficienti per raggiungere gli obiettivi climatici, in particolare il target di triplicare la capacità rinnovabile entro il 2030. Si prevede che la Cina aggiunga quasi il doppio dei gigawatt per dollaro rispetto agli Stati Uniti, mentre la sua quota di mercato nella produzione di moduli fotovoltaici scenderà al 65% e nella produzione di celle per batterie al 61% entro il 2030.
S&P Global Commodity Insights pronostica que las inversiones en el suministro de energía cleantech alcanzarán 670 mil millones de dólares en 2025, superando por primera vez el gasto en petróleo y gas en la parte superior de la cadena. La energía solar fotovoltaica representará la mitad de todas las inversiones en cleantech y dos tercios de los megavatios instalados.
El informe identifica tendencias clave, incluyendo: tensiones en la cadena de suministro debido al dominio de China en la fabricación, la transformación del almacenamiento de baterías en los mercados energéticos, la revolución de la inteligencia artificial en la gestión de la energía limpia, la adquisición de energía limpia impulsada por los centros de datos que se espera alcance 300 TWh anuales para 2030, y el surgimiento del amoníaco en la producción de hidrógeno bajo en carbono. Se proyecta que el sector CCUS asegurará una capacidad de captura de CO2 de 70 millones de toneladas métricas por año para 2025.
A pesar de las inversiones significativas, los niveles actuales son insuficientes para cumplir con los objetivos climáticos, particularmente la meta de triplicar la capacidad renovable para 2030. Se espera que China agregue casi el doble de gigavatios por dólar en comparación con los Estados Unidos, mientras que su cuota de mercado en la producción de módulos fotovoltaicos disminuirá al 65% y en la fabricación de celdas de batería al 61% para 2030.
S&P 글로벌 커머더 인사이트는 클린테크 에너지 공급 투자액이 2025년까지 6700억 달러에 이를 것이라고 전망하며, 이는 최초로 상류 석유 및 가스 지출을 초과할 것으로 보입니다. 태양광 PV는 모든 클린테크 투자 금액의 절반을 차지하고 설치된 메가와트의 3분의 2를 차지할 것입니다.
보고서는 주요 트렌드를 식별하는데, 여기에는 제조 부문에서 중국의 지배로 인한 공급망 긴장, 전력 시장의 배터리 저장 변환, 청정 에너지 관리에서의 AI 혁명, 데이터 센터 주도의 청정 에너지 조달이 2030년까지 연간 300 TWh에 이를 것으로 예상되며, 암모니아의 저탄소 수소 생산에서의 부상 등이 있습니다. CCUS 부문은 2025년까지 연간 7000만 톤의 CO2 포집 능력을 확보할 것으로 예상됩니다.
상당한 투자에도 불구하고 현재의 수준은 기후 목표를 달성하기에는 불충분하며, 특히 2030년까지 재생 가능 용량을 세 배로 늘리겠다는 목표에 도달하지 못할 가능성이 높습니다. 중국은 미국에 비해 달러당 두 배에 가까운 기가와트를 추가할 것으로 예상되며, 2030년까지 태양광 모듈 생산의 시장 점유율은 65%, 배터리 셀 제조의 시장 점유율은 61%로 감소할 것입니다.
S&P Global Commodity Insights prévoit que les investissements dans l'approvisionnement énergétique cleantech atteindront 670 milliards de dollars en 2025, dépassant pour la première fois les dépenses en pétrole et gaz en amont. L'énergie solaire photovoltaïque représentera la moitié de tous les investissements dans le cleantech et deux tiers des mégawatts installés.
Le rapport identifie des tendances clés, notamment : les tensions dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement dues à la domination de la Chine dans la fabrication, la transformation du stockage des batteries sur les marchés de l'énergie, la révolution de l'IA dans la gestion de l'énergie propre, l'approvisionnement en énergie propre alimenté par les centres de données qui devrait atteindre 300 TWh par an d'ici 2030, et l'émergence de l'ammoniac dans la production d'hydrogène à faible émission de carbone. Le secteur CCUS devrait obtenir une capacité de capture du CO2 de 70 millions de tonnes métriques par an d'ici 2025.
Malgré des investissements significatifs, les niveaux actuels restent insuffisants pour atteindre les objectifs climatiques, en particulier l'objectif de tripler la capacité renouvelable d'ici 2030. On s'attend à ce que la Chine ajoute presque deux fois plus de gigawatts par dollar comparé aux États-Unis, tandis que sa part de marché dans la production de modules photovoltaïques descendra à 65 % et dans la fabrication de cellules de batteries à 61 % d'ici 2030.
S&P Global Commodity Insights prognostiziert, dass die Investitionen in die Bereitstellung von cleantech Energie bis 2025 auf 670 Milliarden Dollar steigen werden, was erstmals die Ausgaben im upstream Öl- und Gassektor übersteigt. Solar-PV wird die Hälfte aller cleantech Investitionen und zwei Drittel der installierten Megawatt ausmachen.
Der Bericht identifiziert wichtige Trends, darunter: Spannungen in der Lieferkette aufgrund der Dominanz Chinas in der Fertigung, die Transformation der Energiemärkte durch Batteriespeicherung, die AI-Revolution im Bereich des Managements erneuerbarer Energien, der durch Rechenzentren bedingte Bezug von sauberer Energie, der bis 2030 voraussichtlich 300 TWh jährlich erreichen wird, sowie das Auftauchen von Ammoniak in der Produktion von CO2-armen Wasserstoff. Es wird prognostiziert, dass der CCUS-Sektor im Jahr 2025 eine CO2-Capture-Kapazität von 70 Millionen metrischen Tonnen pro Jahr sichern wird.
Trotz erheblicher Investitionen sind die aktuellen Niveaus nicht ausreichend, um die Klimaziele zu erreichen, insbesondere das Ziel, die erneuerbare Kapazität bis 2030 zu verdreifachen. Es wird erwartet, dass China fast doppelt so viele Gigawatt pro Dollar hinzufügt im Vergleich zu den Vereinigten Staaten, während sein Marktanteil in der Produktion von PV-Modulen bis 2030 auf 65 % und in der Batterieherstellung auf 61 % sinken wird.
- Cleantech investments reaching record $670 billion in 2025, exceeding oil and gas spending
- Solar PV representing 50% of cleantech investments
- Datacenter clean energy procurement expected to grow to 300 TWh annually by 2030
- CCUS sector securing 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity
- Investment levels insufficient to meet climate goals
- Price cannibalization affecting project development in mature markets
- Chinese oversupply pressuring global cleantech equipment prices
- AI implementation poses cybersecurity and ethical risks
Insights
The forecast of
The highlighted supply chain dynamics, especially China's declining market share in PV modules to
The integration of AI in renewable generation forecasting and grid planning presents a strategic opportunity for SPGI's data analytics services. The reported
The datacenter sector's projected consumption of 300 TWh of clean power annually by 2030, up from 200 TWh, represents a significant shift in corporate energy procurement patterns. This trend will likely drive increased demand for SPGI's energy transition advisory services and market intelligence products.
The report's findings on CCUS securing 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity demonstrates the acceleration of decarbonization initiatives. This development could enhance SPGI's ESG ratings and analytics business, as companies increasingly seek guidance on carbon management strategies.
The emergence of ammonia as a key player in low-carbon hydrogen production, coupled with the surge in carbon dioxide removal agreements, indicates growing market sophistication in emissions reduction strategies. This trend aligns with SPGI's expanding role in sustainability benchmarking and assessment services.
Cleantech investments to reach
"S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that cleantech energy supply investments, including renewable power generation, green hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage (CCS), will reach
"The new year 2025 is not only bringing to the clean energy sector significant transformations that are reshaping energy production and consumption, but it promises to be pivotal for the clean energy sector, with significant advancements in corporate clean energy procurement and the integration of AI in energy management," said Eduard Sala de Vedruna, Head of Research, Energy Transition, Sustainability & Services, S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The S&P Global Commodity Insights report: Top Cleantech Trends for 2025, underscores the growing dominance of renewable technologies like solar PV, but also addresses the challenges and opportunities within the evolving clean energy sector.
The top trends identified in the report include:
Clean Energy Investment Takes Center Stage
In 2025, cleantech energy supply spending is projected to reach
Tensions in Cleantech Supply Chains
The global cleantech landscape is shaped by an oversupply of equipment from
Storage Transforms the Power Markets
Battery energy storage is becoming essential for enhancing project economics and mitigating low wholesale electricity prices in regions with high renewable energy penetration. Despite reductions in solar PV costs, the decrease in capital expenditures has not translated into robust project development, largely due to low power purchase agreement expectations. The phenomenon of cannibalization, where excessive midday energy production drives prices down to negligible levels, further discourages project development in mature markets. To remain competitive, solar projects must integrate battery energy storage solutions, enabling developers to navigate price fluctuations and improve the economic viability of renewable investments.
AI Revolutionizes Clean Energy Technology
A recent report from S&P Global Commodity Insights highlights the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the cleantech sector, particularly in renewable generation forecasting and grid planning. As intermittent renewable energy sources become more prevalent, the need for accurate forecasts has intensified. AI-powered trading applications are emerging as critical tools to mitigate risks associated with discrepancies—potentially up to
Datacenters Drive Clean Energy Procurement
Datacenters are expected to significantly increase their role in corporate clean energy procurement, with expectations to source approximately 300 TWh of clean power annually by 2030. Currently, datacenters account for around 200 TWh, or
The Quest for Deeper Decarbonization
Ammonia is emerging as a key player in low-carbon hydrogen production, contributing significantly to both electrolytic and fossil fuel projects with CCS. In 2025, the CCUS sector is expected to secure approximately 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity, bolstered by recent announcements of carbon management strategies that enhance clarity for CCUS projects. Despite the high costs associated with engineered carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, the last three years have witnessed a surge in CDR offtake removal agreements, demonstrating increasing corporate interest and enhanced government policy support.
To access charts, please click here: Investment Trends in Clean Energy Technology
For more information on energy transition topics, visit: Energy Transition Service | S&P Global Commodity Insights (spglobal.com)
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About S&P Global Commodity Insights
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