S&P Global Commodity Insights Predicts a Transformative Shift as Investments in Cleantech Outpace Fossil Fuels for the First Time

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that cleantech energy supply investments will reach $670 billion in 2025, surpassing upstream oil and gas spending for the first time. Solar PV will represent half of all cleantech investments and two-thirds of installed megawatts.

The report identifies key trends including: supply chain tensions with China's dominance in manufacturing, battery storage transformation of power markets, AI revolution in clean energy management, datacenter-driven clean energy procurement expected to reach 300 TWh annually by 2030, and ammonia's emergence in low-carbon hydrogen production. The CCUS sector is projected to secure 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity in 2025.

Despite significant investments, current levels remain insufficient to meet climate goals, particularly the target of tripling renewable capacity by 2030. China is expected to add nearly twice as many gigawatts per dollar compared to the United States, while its market share in PV module production will decline to 65% and battery cell manufacturing to 61% by 2030.

Positive

• Cleantech investments reaching record $670 billion in 2025, exceeding oil and gas spending
• Solar PV representing 50% of cleantech investments
• Datacenter clean energy procurement expected to grow to 300 TWh annually by 2030
• CCUS sector securing 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity

Negative

• Investment levels insufficient to meet climate goals
• Price cannibalization affecting project development in mature markets
• Chinese oversupply pressuring global cleantech equipment prices
• AI implementation poses cybersecurity and ethical risks

Cleantech investments to reach $670 billion.

LONDON, NEW YORK, and SINGAPORE, Jan. 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Commodity Insights, the leading independent provider of information, analysis, data, and benchmark prices for the commodities, energy, and energy transition markets, has released its latest report on the pivotal trends in clean energy technology for 2025.

"S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that cleantech energy supply investments, including renewable power generation, green hydrogen production, and carbon capture and storage (CCS), will reach $670 billion in 2025, marking the first time these investments will outpace projected upstream oil and gas spending. Solar PV is expected to represent half of all cleantech investments and two-thirds of installed megawatts," said Edurne Zoco, Executive Director, Clean Energy Technology, S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"The new year 2025 is not only bringing to the clean energy sector significant transformations that are reshaping energy production and consumption, but it promises to be pivotal for the clean energy sector, with significant advancements in corporate clean energy procurement and the integration of AI in energy management," said Eduard Sala de Vedruna, Head of Research, Energy Transition, Sustainability & Services, S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The S&P Global Commodity Insights report: Top Cleantech Trends for 2025, underscores the growing dominance of renewable technologies like solar PV, but also addresses the challenges and opportunities within the evolving clean energy sector.

The top trends identified in the report include:

Clean Energy Investment Takes Center Stage
In 2025, cleantech energy supply spending is projected to reach $670 billion, surpassing upstream oil and gas investments for the first time. This shift underscores the growing dominance of renewable technologies, with solar PV expected to represent half of all cleantech investments and two-thirds of installed megawatts. However, despite this significant financial commitment, the overall investment levels remain insufficient to meet urgent climate goals, particularly the target of tripling renewable capacity by 2030. Capital efficiency varies by region, with China projected to add nearly twice as many gigawatts per dollar spent compared to the United States.

Tensions in Cleantech Supply Chains
The global cleantech landscape is shaped by an oversupply of equipment from China, particularly affecting the solar, wind, and battery sectors. Price declines may stabilize in 2025, but competition from Chinese manufacturers is expected to keep prices low, fundamentally altering industry pricing dynamics. A slowing domestic economy in China complicates the maintenance of its expansive supply chain, prompting efforts to control manufacturing growth and raise barriers for new entrants. Projections indicate that China's market share in PV module production will decline to 65% and battery cell manufacturing to 61% by 2030.

Storage Transforms the Power Markets
Battery energy storage is becoming essential for enhancing project economics and mitigating low wholesale electricity prices in regions with high renewable energy penetration. Despite reductions in solar PV costs, the decrease in capital expenditures has not translated into robust project development, largely due to low power purchase agreement expectations. The phenomenon of cannibalization, where excessive midday energy production drives prices down to negligible levels, further discourages project development in mature markets. To remain competitive, solar projects must integrate battery energy storage solutions, enabling developers to navigate price fluctuations and improve the economic viability of renewable investments.

AI Revolutionizes Clean Energy Technology
A recent report from S&P Global Commodity Insights highlights the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the cleantech sector, particularly in renewable generation forecasting and grid planning. As intermittent renewable energy sources become more prevalent, the need for accurate forecasts has intensified. AI-powered trading applications are emerging as critical tools to mitigate risks associated with discrepancies—potentially up to 700%—between forecasted and actual energy generation, thereby enhancing energy management and facilitating the integration of renewables into the grid. While AI has great potential to transform the clean energy sector, it also presents a range of risks that will require careful management like cybersecurity breaches, network compromises, anomalous behaviors, and unlawful or unethical practices, among others.

Datacenters Drive Clean Energy Procurement
Datacenters are expected to significantly increase their role in corporate clean energy procurement, with expectations to source approximately 300 TWh of clean power annually by 2030. Currently, datacenters account for around 200 TWh, or 35%, of the global corporate clean energy procurement, a figure projected to rise dramatically over the next five years. North American datacenters are leading this transition, anticipated to represent approximately 60% of the global increase in clean energy procurement by 2030.

The Quest for Deeper Decarbonization
Ammonia is emerging as a key player in low-carbon hydrogen production, contributing significantly to both electrolytic and fossil fuel projects with CCS. In 2025, the CCUS sector is expected to secure approximately 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity, bolstered by recent announcements of carbon management strategies that enhance clarity for CCUS projects. Despite the high costs associated with engineered carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, the last three years have witnessed a surge in CDR offtake removal agreements, demonstrating increasing corporate interest and enhanced government policy support.

To access charts, please click here: Investment Trends in Clean Energy Technology

For more information on energy transition topics, visit: Energy Transition Service | S&P Global Commodity Insights (spglobal.com)

Media Contacts: 
Americas: Kathleen Tanzy + 1 917-331-4607, kathleen.tanzy@spglobal.com 
EMEA: Paul Sandell + 44 (0)7816 180039, paul.sandell@spglobal.com  
Asia: Melissa Tan + 65-6597-6241, melissa.tan@spglobal.com   

About S&P Global Commodity Insights
At S&P Global Commodity Insights, our complete view of global energy and commodity markets enables our customers to make decisions with conviction and create long-term, sustainable value.  

We're a trusted connector that brings together thought leaders, market participants, governments, and regulators and we create solutions that lead to progress. Vital to navigating commodity markets, our coverage includes oil and gas, power, chemicals, metals, agriculture, shipping and energy transition. Platts^® products and services, including leading benchmark price assessments in the physical commodity markets, are offered through S&P Global Commodity Insights. S&P Global Commodity Insights maintains clear structural and operational separation between its price assessment activities and the other activities carried out by S&P Global Commodity Insights and the other business divisions of S&P Global.   

S&P Global Commodity Insights is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information visit https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights. 

 

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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights

FAQ

How much will cleantech investments reach in 2025 according to S&P Global (SPGI)?

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, cleantech energy supply investments will reach $670 billion in 2025.

What percentage of cleantech investments will solar PV represent in 2025 (SPGI)?

Solar PV is expected to represent 50% of all cleantech investments and two-thirds of installed megawatts in 2025.

What is China's projected market share in PV module production by 2030 (SPGI)?

China's market share in PV module production is projected to decline to 65% by 2030.

How much clean energy will datacenters procure annually by 2030 (SPGI)?

Datacenters are expected to source approximately 300 TWh of clean power annually by 2030.

What is the projected CO2 capture capacity for CCUS sector in 2025 (SPGI)?

The CCUS sector is expected to secure approximately 70 million metric tons per year of CO2 capture capacity in 2025.