S&P Global Mobility: September U.S. auto sales - smaller volume, little change to underlying dynamics

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. light vehicle sales in September to decline by approximately 12% year-over-year to 1.18 million units. However, this translates to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million units, up from 15.2 million in August. The auto demand environment remains consistent but unmotivated due to high interest rates and vehicle prices.

Dealer advertised inventory has leveled out since spring, reaching 2.88 million units at the end of August. With 2025 model year vehicles becoming more available, pressure to sell remaining 2024 stock will increase. S&P Global Mobility has lowered its 2024 U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units and North American production outlook to 15.5 million units.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales continue to show strong development, with share of sales above 8% in June and July. New BEV models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue are expected to drive further growth in the fourth quarter.

Positive

• SAAR increased to 16.0 million units in September, up from 15.2 million in August
• Dealer advertised inventory reached 2.88 million units at the end of August
• BEV share of sales has been above 8% in both June and July
• New BEV models expected to drive further growth in Q4

Negative

• U.S. light vehicle sales expected to decline by 12% year-over-year in September
• 2024 U.S. sales outlook lowered to 15.9 million units from 16.0 million
• North American production outlook downgraded to 15.5 million units for 2024
• High interest rates and vehicle prices continue to pressure consumer demand

Given a relatively small number of selling days (23), and with Labor Day volume counted in August, total U.S. auto sales in September are expected to be much lower than the year-ago and month-prior levels

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Sept. 26, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On a volume estimate of 1.18 million units, S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. light vehicle sales in September to realize a calendar-induced decline of approximately 12% year-over-year. On the bright side, this would translate to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million units, a notable bump from the 15.2 million unit reading in August and sustaining a volatile pattern for this monthly metric since May. The month-to-month volatility in the SAAR reading reflects the current state of auto demand.

"New vehicle sales remain stuck in neutral," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The overall tenor of the auto demand environment remains one of consistent, but unmotivated volume levels as consumers in the market continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments."

Despite increasing to 2.88 million units at the end of August, dealer advertised inventory in the U.S. has also largely leveled out since the spring. "With 2025 model year vehicles now becoming available at an increased rate (up 65% vs. July), pressure to sell down remaining stock of 2024 model year vehicles will begin to mount," suggests Matt Trommer, associate director of product at S&P Global Mobility.

Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected, but given reports of some automakers culling output expectations for the remainder of the year, affordability issues are expected to remain stubbornly sticky even as the first interest rate cut was made. In its September 2024 forecast update, S&P Global Mobility has lowered its calendar year 2024 U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units, down from a previous projection of 16.0 million units. Similarly, the S&P Global Mobility light vehicle production outlook for North America has also been downgraded to a 2024 calendar year projection of 15.5 million units, reflecting vehicle timing and inventory correction impacts.

US Light Vehicle Sales
		Sep 24 (Est)	Aug 24	Sep 23
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,183,000	1,418,771	1,340,980
	In millions, SAAR	16.0	15.1	15.8
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	12.8	12.2	12.5
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	3.2	2.9	3.3
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term light vehicle sales forecast. According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% in both June and July, progress from levels earlier in the year. In the immediate term, moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated. September BEV share is expected to remain above 8% once again. Assisted by the current roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue and to be followed by new BEVs such as the Polestar 3, Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the fourth quarter, electric vehicle sales are expected to advance over the remainder of the year.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What is the expected U.S. light vehicle sales volume for September 2024?

S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) expects U.S. light vehicle sales in September 2024 to reach approximately 1.18 million units.

How does the September 2024 SAAR compare to August 2024?

The September 2024 SAAR is expected to be 16.0 million units, up from 15.2 million units in August 2024, according to S&P Global Mobility (SPGI).

What is S&P Global Mobility's revised 2024 U.S. sales outlook?

S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) has lowered its 2024 U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units, down from a previous projection of 16.0 million units.

What is the current share of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales in the U.S.?

According to S&P Global Mobility (SPGI) data, BEV share of sales has been above 8% in both June and July 2024, and is expected to remain above 8% in September.