S&P Global Mobility: September U.S. auto sales - smaller volume, little change to underlying dynamics
S&P Global Mobility expects U.S. light vehicle sales in September to decline by approximately 12% year-over-year to 1.18 million units. However, this translates to a seasonally adjusted rate (SAAR) of 16.0 million units, up from 15.2 million in August. The auto demand environment remains consistent but unmotivated due to high interest rates and vehicle prices.
Dealer advertised inventory has leveled out since spring, reaching 2.88 million units at the end of August. With 2025 model year vehicles becoming more available, pressure to sell remaining 2024 stock will increase. S&P Global Mobility has lowered its 2024 U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units and North American production outlook to 15.5 million units.
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales continue to show strong development, with share of sales above 8% in June and July. New BEV models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue are expected to drive further growth in the fourth quarter.
S&P Global Mobility prevede che le vendite di veicoli leggeri negli Stati Uniti a settembre diminuiranno di circa il 12% rispetto all'anno precedente, per arrivare a 1,18 milioni di unità. Tuttavia, questo si traduce in un tasso stagionalmente aggiustato (SAAR) di 16,0 milioni di unità, in crescita rispetto ai 15,2 milioni di agosto. L'ambiente della domanda di auto rimane consistente ma poco motivato a causa degli alti tassi di interesse e dei prezzi dei veicoli.
Le giacenze pubblicizzate dai concessionari si sono stabilizzate dalla primavera, raggiungendo 2,88 milioni di unità alla fine di agosto. Con i veicoli della gamma 2025 che diventano più disponibili, la pressione per vendere le giacenze rimanenti del 2024 aumenterà. S&P Global Mobility ha abbassato le sue previsioni di vendita negli Stati Uniti per il 2024 a 15,9 milioni di unità e le previsioni di produzione per il Nord America a 15,5 milioni di unità.
Le vendite di veicoli elettrici a batteria (BEV) continuano a mostrare un forte sviluppo, con una quota di vendite superiore all'8% a giugno e luglio. Nuovi modelli BEV come la Chevrolet Equinox EV e la Honda Prologue sono attesi per stimolare ulteriormente la crescita nel quarto trimestre.
S&P Global Mobility espera que las ventas de vehículos ligeros en EE. UU. en septiembre disminuyan aproximadamente un 12% interanual, alcanzando 1.18 millones de unidades. Sin embargo, esto se traduce en un índice ajustado estacionalmente (SAAR) de 16.0 millones de unidades, en comparación con 15.2 millones en agosto. El entorno de demanda de automóviles sigue siendo consistente pero poco motivado debido a las altas tasas de interés y precios de los vehículos.
El inventario publicitado por los concesionarios se ha estabilizado desde la primavera, alcanzando 2.88 millones de unidades a finales de agosto. A medida que los vehículos del modelo 2025 se vuelven más disponibles, la presión para vender el stock restante del 2024 aumentará. S&P Global Mobility ha reducido su perspectiva de ventas de EE. UU. para 2024 a 15.9 millones de unidades y la perspectiva de producción en América del Norte a 15.5 millones de unidades.
Las ventas de vehículos eléctricos a batería (BEV) continúan mostrando un fuerte desarrollo, con una cuota de ventas superior al 8% en junio y julio. Se espera que nuevos modelos BEV como el Chevrolet Equinox EV y el Honda Prologue impulsen un mayor crecimiento en el cuarto trimestre.
S&P Global Mobility는 9월 미국 경차 판매량이 지난해 대비 약 12% 감소하여 118만 대에 이를 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 그러나 이는 계절 조정 연율(SAAR) 1,600만 대로, 8월의 1,520만 대에서 증가한 수치입니다. 높은 금리와 자동차 가격으로 인해 자동차 수요 환경은 일관되지만 동기 부여가 부족한 상태입니다.
딜러의 광고 재고는 봄 이후 안정세를 보이며 8월 말에 288만 대에 도달했습니다. 2025년 모델 차량이 더 많이 출시됨에 따라 남은 2024년 재고 판매에 대한 압력이 증가할 것입니다. S&P Global Mobility는 2024년 미국 판매 전망을 1,590만 대로 하향 조정하였고, 북미 생산 전망을 1,550만 대로 하향 조정하였습니다.
배터리 전기차(BEV) 판매는 계속해서 강력한 발전을 보여주고 있으며, 6월과 7월의 판매 비중이 8%를 넘고 있습니다. Chevrolet Equinox EV와 Honda Prologue와 같은 새로운 BEV 모델은 4분기에 추가 성장을 이끌 것으로 예상됩니다.
S&P Global Mobility prévoit que les ventes de véhicules légers aux États-Unis en septembre diminueront d'environ 12 % par rapport à l'année précédente, atteignant 1,18 million d'unités. Cependant, cela se traduit par un taux saisonnier ajusté (SAAR) de 16,0 millions d'unités, en hausse par rapport à 15,2 millions en août. L'environnement de la demande automobile reste constant mais peu motivé en raison des taux d'intérêt élevés et des prix des véhicules.
Les stocks annoncés par les concessionnaires se sont stabilisés depuis le printemps, atteignant 2,88 millions d'unités à la fin août. Avec une disponibilité accrue des véhicules de l'année-modèle 2025, la pression pour écouler le stock restant de 2024 va augmenter. S&P Global Mobility a réduit sa prévision de ventes aux États-Unis pour 2024 à 15,9 millions d'unités et sa prévision de production en Amérique du Nord à 15,5 millions d'unités.
Les ventes de véhicules électriques à batterie (BEV) continuent de montrer un développement fort, avec une part de ventes supérieure à 8 % en juin et juillet. De nouveaux modèles de BEV comme la Chevrolet Equinox EV et la Honda Prologue devraient stimuler davantage la croissance au quatrième trimestre.
S&P Global Mobility erwartet, dass die Verkäufe von Leichtfahrzeugen in den USA im September um etwa 12 % im Jahresvergleich auf 1,18 Millionen Einheiten zurückgehen werden. Dies entspricht jedoch einer saisonal angepassten Rate (SAAR) von 16,0 Millionen Einheiten, was einem Anstieg von 15,2 Millionen im August entspricht. Das Nachfrageumfeld für Autos bleibt konstant, ist jedoch aufgrund hoher Zinssätze und Fahrzeugpreise unmotiviert.
Der von Händlern beworbene Lagerbestand hat sich seit dem Frühjahr stabilisiert und erreichte Ende August 2,88 Millionen Einheiten. Da die Fahrzeuge des Modelljahres 2025 zunehmend verfügbar werden, wird der Druck, den verbliebenen Bestand von 2024 zu verkaufen, zunehmen. S&P Global Mobility hat seine Ursprungsprognose für den US-Markt 2024 auf 15,9 Millionen Einheiten und die Produktionsprognose für Nordamerika auf 15,5 Millionen Einheiten gesenkt.
Der Verkauf von batteriebetriebenen Elektrofahrzeugen (BEVs) zeigt weiterhin eine starke Entwicklung, mit einem Verkaufsanteil von über 8 % im Juni und Juli. Neue BEV-Modelle wie der Chevrolet Equinox EV und der Honda Prologue werden im vierten Quartal voraussichtlich weiteres Wachstum ankurbeln.
- SAAR increased to 16.0 million units in September, up from 15.2 million in August
- Dealer advertised inventory reached 2.88 million units at the end of August
- BEV share of sales has been above 8% in both June and July
- New BEV models expected to drive further growth in Q4
- U.S. light vehicle sales expected to decline by 12% year-over-year in September
- 2024 U.S. sales outlook lowered to 15.9 million units from 16.0 million
- North American production outlook downgraded to 15.5 million units for 2024
- High interest rates and vehicle prices continue to pressure consumer demand
Insights
The September U.S. auto sales report indicates a 12% year-over-year decline in light vehicle sales, with an estimated volume of
Key factors influencing the current auto market include:
- High interest rates and persistent vehicle prices impacting affordability
- Stabilizing dealer inventory levels since spring
- Increasing availability of 2025 model year vehicles (
65% increase vs. July) - Potential pressure to sell remaining 2024 model year stock
The forecast for 2024 U.S. sales has been revised downward to 15.9 million units, while North American light vehicle production is projected at 15.5 million units. These adjustments reflect ongoing challenges in the auto industry, including affordability issues and inventory corrections.
Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales continue to show promise, maintaining a market share above
Given a relatively small number of selling days (23), and with Labor Day volume counted in August, total
"New vehicle sales remain stuck in neutral," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The overall tenor of the auto demand environment remains one of consistent, but unmotivated volume levels as consumers in the market continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments."
Despite increasing to 2.88 million units at the end of August, dealer advertised inventory in the
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected, but given reports of some automakers culling output expectations for the remainder of the year, affordability issues are expected to remain stubbornly sticky even as the first interest rate cut was made. In its September 2024 forecast update, S&P Global Mobility has lowered its calendar year 2024 U.S. sales outlook to 15.9 million units, down from a previous projection of 16.0 million units. Similarly, the S&P Global Mobility light vehicle production outlook for
US Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
Sep 24 (Est) | Aug 24 | Sep 23 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,183,000 | 1,418,771 | 1,340,980 |
In millions, SAAR | 16.0 | 15.1 | 15.8 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 12.8 | 12.2 | 12.5 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term light vehicle sales forecast. According to S&P Global Mobility new registration data, BEV share of sales has been above
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-global-mobility-september-us-auto-sales--smaller-volume-little-change-to-underlying-dynamics-302260065.html
SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
FAQ
What is the expected U.S. light vehicle sales volume for September 2024?
How does the September 2024 SAAR compare to August 2024?
What is S&P Global Mobility's revised 2024 U.S. sales outlook?
What is the current share of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales in the U.S.?
