S&P Global Market Intelligence Finds India's influential growth potential rests on its labor force, exports and startups
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Short-term economic growth will stand on
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The financial technology sector has topped the funding charts in
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Contributions from S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts and research leaders focus on demographic dividend, capital markets potential, digital and physical infrastructure, supply chain and geopolitical shocks.
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Key highlights include:
India's short-term economic growth will stand on the shoulders of its 678.6 million strong labor force, as estimated by S&P Global Market Intelligence, but labor market reforms could help to unlock sustainable long-term growth. Skill development will help shiftIndia's economic focus to manufacturing. The lower skill level in Indian manufacturing means that each employee added just of value on average in 2021, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That's far behind the$8,076 achieved in$18,308 Thailand and the seen in$34,402 Malaysia .India's realized — and unrealized — potential over the next decade will be a story about the successes and opportunities of its diverse states. S&P Global Market Intelligence estimatesMaharashtra ,Tamil Nadu ,Karnataka ,Uttar Pradesh will beIndia's top 5 growing states over the coming decade (nominal by state). Maharashtra GDP is expected to reachUSD824.51bn andTamil Nadu is forecast to reachUSD650.34bn – both by 2030.India has an immense opportunity to increase its share of global manufacturing exports, and the government is seeking to raise manufacturing to25% of GDP from17.7% by 2025.India's policy interventions in the smartphone sector illustrate its ambitions for manufacturing as a conduit to service the domestic market as well as its geopolitical aims.India's export industry for telecom equipment, including smartphones, is rapidly expanding. Exports reached in the 12 months to March 31, 2023, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows.$11.8 billion - Higher foreign participation in
India's domestic government debt market would increase demand and meaningfully lower the cost of new government debt issuance. S&P Global Market Intelligence's Banking Risk Service forecasts credit expansion growth to average13% annually from 2023 to 2030 due to fast economic growth and banks strengthening following the recent large-scale bad loan write-off. - Although the global technology market decelerated recently,
India's startup ecosystem continues to enjoy tailwinds. As a result, the share of global venture capital flowing into Indian startups may roughly double by 2030.India emerged as the fourth-most popular destination for startups in the world in 2022, attracting4.2% of global venture capital, behind the US (41% ), mainlandChina (18% ) and theUK (6% ), according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
For more insights from Look Forward India's Moment (Volume 3 | August 2023), please visit: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/special-editorial/look-forward/look-forward-volume-3-2023. Here are some insights from our recent podcast episode on
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