Schwab Trading Activity Index™: September Score Slides by Biggest Margin Since June ’22
The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 47.10 in September from 53.16 in August, marking the largest decline since June 2022. Schwab clients were net sellers of equities, particularly in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services sectors. They were net buyers in Energy and Consumer Staples.
The September STAX period was influenced by significant economic data, including a 50-basis point reduction in the Fed Funds rate. Despite market highs, clients de-risked portfolios, shifting from equities to fixed income. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new highs, while the Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.68%.
Popular stocks bought included NVIDIA, Palantir, and Intel, while stocks sold included Tesla, AMD, and Alibaba. The VIX closed 13% higher at 16.96, and WTI Crude Oil futures fell by 7.30%.
Il Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) è sceso a 47,10 a settembre, rispetto a 53,16 ad agosto, segnando il maggiore calo da giugno 2022. I clienti Schwab sono stati venditori netti di azioni, in particolare nei settori della Tecnologia dell'Informazione, dei Beni di Consumo Discrezionali e dei Servizi di Comunicazione. Sono stati invece acquirenti netti nel settore dell'Energia e dei Beni di Consumo di base.
Il periodo di settembre per il STAX è stato influenzato da dati economici significativi, tra cui una riduzione di 50 punti base nel tasso dei Fed Funds. Nonostante i massimi di mercato, i clienti hanno de-riskato i portafogli, spostandosi da azioni a reddito fisso. L'S&P 500 e il Dow Jones Industrial Average hanno raggiunto nuovi massimi, mentre il Nasdaq Composite ha chiuso con un aumento del 2,68%.
I titoli popolari acquistati includevano NVIDIA, Palantir e Intel, mentre i titoli venduti includevano Tesla, AMD e Alibaba. Il VIX ha chiuso con un aumento del 13% a 16,96, e i futures del petrolio greggio WTI sono diminuiti del 7,30%.
El Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) disminuyó a 47.10 en septiembre desde 53.16 en agosto, marcando la mayor caída desde junio de 2022. Los clientes de Schwab fueron vendedores netos de acciones, particularmente en los sectores de Tecnología de la Información, Consumo Discrecional y Servicios de Comunicación. Fueron compradores netos en Energía y Bienes de Consumo Básico.
El periodo de septiembre del STAX fue influenciado por datos económicos significativos, incluyendo una reducción de 50 puntos básicos en la tasa de los Fed Funds. A pesar de los máximos del mercado, los clientes de-riskearon las carteras, moviéndose de acciones a ingresos fijos. El S&P 500 y el Dow Jones Industrial Average alcanzaron nuevos máximos, mientras que el Nasdaq Composite cerró con un aumento del 2.68%.
Las acciones populares compradas incluyeron NVIDIA, Palantir e Intel, mientras que las acciones vendidas incluyeron Tesla, AMD y Alibaba. El VIX cerró un 13% más alto en 16.96, y los futuros del petróleo crudo WTI cayeron un 7.30%.
슈왑 트레이딩 활동 지수™ (STAX)는 8월 53.16에서 9월 47.10으로 감소하여 2022년 6월 이후 최대 하락폭을 기록했습니다. 슈왑 고객들은 주식의 순매도자로, 특히 정보기술, 소비재, 통신 서비스 부문에서 두드러졌습니다. 에너지 및 필수 소비재 부문에서는 순매수자였습니다.
9월 STAX 기간은 연준 자금 금리 50bp 인하를 포함한 중요한 경제 데이터의 영향을 받았습니다. 시장 최고치에도 불구하고 고객들은 포트폴리오의 위험을 줄이고 주식에서 고정수입으로 이동했습니다. S&P 500 및 다우 존스 산업 평균이 새로운 최고치를 기록했으며, 나스닥 종합 지수는 2.68% 상승하여 마감했습니다.
인기 매수 주식에는 NVIDIA, Palantir, Intel이 포함되었고, 매도 주식에는 Tesla, AMD, Alibaba가 포함되었습니다. VIX는 13% 상승하여 16.96으로 마감했으며, WTI 원유 선물은 7.30% 하락했습니다.
L'indice d'activité de négociation Schwab™ (STAX) a diminué à 47,10 en septembre contre 53,16 en août, marquant le plus grand déclin depuis juin 2022. Les clients de Schwab étaient vendeurs nets d'actions, en particulier dans les secteurs de la technologie de l'information, des biens de consommation discrétionnaires et des services de communication. Ils étaient acheteurs nets dans les secteurs de l'énergie et des biens de consommation de base.
La période de septembre pour le STAX a été influencée par des données économiques significatives, y compris une réduction de 50 points de base du taux des Fed Funds. Malgré les sommets du marché, les clients ont réduit le risque de leurs portefeuilles, passant des actions aux revenus fixes. Le S&P 500 et le Dow Jones Industrial Average ont atteint de nouveaux sommets, tandis que le Nasdaq Composite a clôturé en hausse de 2,68 %.
Les actions populaires achetées comprenaient NVIDIA, Palantir et Intel, tandis que les actions vendues comprenaient Tesla, AMD et Alibaba. Le VIX a clôturé en hausse de 13 % à 16,96, et les contrats à terme sur le pétrole brut WTI ont baissé de 7,30 %.
Der Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) fiel im September auf 47,10, nachdem er im August bei 53,16 lag, was den größten Rückgang seit Juni 2022 darstellt. Die Schwab-Kunden waren netto Verkäufer von Aktien, insbesondere in den Sektoren Informationstechnologie, Konsumgüter und Kommunikationsdienste. In den Sektoren Energie und Basiskonsumgüter waren sie netto Käufer.
Der STAX-Zeitraum im September wurde von bedeutenden Wirtschaftsdaten beeinflusst, darunter eine Reduzierung um 50 Basispunkte im Fed Funds Rate. Trotz der Markt-Hochs haben die Kunden ihre Portfolios weniger riskant gestaltet, indem sie von Aktien auf festverzinsliche Anlagen umschichteten. Der S&P 500 und der Dow Jones Industrial Average erreichten neue Höchststände, während der Nasdaq Composite um 2,68% stieg.
Beliebte gekaufte Aktien umfassten NVIDIA, Palantir und Intel, während verkaufte Aktien Tesla, AMD und Alibaba umfassten. Der VIX schloss um 13% höher bei 16,96, und die WTI-Rohöl-Futures fielen um 7,30%.
- S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.68%, within 5% of its all-time high
- Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the first rate cut in four years
- Second quarter GDP estimates remained at 3%, while Q1 GDP was revised upwards from 1.4% to 1.6%
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than expected at 2.5% for the trailing 12 months
- Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 47.10, indicating reduced trading activity
- Schwab clients were net sellers of equities overall
- Non-farm payrolls rose by only 142,000, indicating a softening labor market
- VIX spiked by 50% intra-month for the second consecutive month
- WTI Crude Oil futures fell by 7.30% due to supply outpacing demand
Insights
The September STAX score of 47.10, down from 53.16 in August, indicates a significant shift in retail investor sentiment. This 6.06-point drop is the largest since June 2022, signaling increased caution among Schwab's retail investors despite overall market gains.
Key observations:
- Net selling of equities, particularly in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors
- Rotation from equities to fixed income, suggesting a defensive posture
- Divergence between market performance and investor behavior, with major indices hitting new highs while STAX declined
- Reaction to economic data, including softening labor market and the surprise
50 basis point rate cut by the Fed
This behavior suggests retail investors are taking a more conservative approach, possibly due to concerns about market valuations, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. The shift towards fixed income and defensive sectors like Consumer Staples indicates a focus on capital preservation and income generation over growth potential.
For long-term investors, this could present opportunities in oversold growth sectors, while short-term traders might consider the potential for market volatility as sentiment diverges from price action.
The September STAX data reveals intriguing trends in retail investor behavior:
- Energy and Consumer Staples saw net buying, indicating a shift towards defensive and value-oriented sectors
- Tech-heavy sectors experienced net selling, suggesting profit-taking or concerns about valuations
- Popular buys included NVIDIA, Palantir and Intel, showing continued interest in AI and semiconductor stocks
- Net selling in Tesla, AMD and Alibaba points to potential concerns about growth prospects or geopolitical risks
The divergence between market performance and investor activity is particularly noteworthy. While major indices hit new highs, retail investors were net sellers, possibly indicating skepticism about the sustainability of the rally or anticipation of a market correction.
The rotation into fixed income suggests a growing appetite for yield and safety, which could impact equity valuations if this trend continues. Investors should monitor whether this defensive positioning persists or if it represents a temporary reaction to recent economic data and Fed actions.
Schwab clients were net sellers of equities overall; At a sector level, they were net buyers of Energy and Consumer Staples, while Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services saw the most selling
The reading for the four-week period ending September 27, 2024, ranks “moderate low” compared to historic averages.
“In September there was no shortage of market-affecting economic data, and Schwab’s clients responded in kind by de-risking and taking profit opportunities,” said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. “For now, it seems that the market has accepted the proactive framing the Fed has adopted with regards to its policy decision, and in large part we’re seeing that clients are optimistic about the U.S.’s economic prospects. But there’s no doubt that the extent of the rate cut in September caught many by surprise and, taken in combination with all the other economic data swirling during the month, it makes sense that clients pulled back a bit even as the markets soared – although it is worth noting that this is one of the biggest divergences we’ve seen between market performance and the STAX score in the history of this analysis.”
Equities got off to a rough start in September, with the S&P 500 down by more than four percent for the first week - its worst week of 2024 to-date. Though equities recovered the very next week, it’s possible that the weak start played into concerns over seasonality (some traders may view September as a historically weak month for stock performance), and amid a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and an impending
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average® and the S&P 500 hit new highs of 42,628.32 and 5,767.37 respectively in the closing days of the September STAX period. The Nasdaq Composite closed the period at 18,189.17, up
The September STAX period was heavily impacted by market-moving economic data. On September 5, initial jobless claims came in at 227,000, slightly fewer than expected. Despite this favorable data, the S&P 500 sold off by
On September 18, the FOMC announced a 50-basis point reduction to the Fed Funds rate, its first rate cut in four years. While a rate cut was widely anticipated, the decision to cut by 50 bps was a surprise to many market participants. The S&P settled nearly 100 points higher the following day and continued to rally through the remainder of the September STAX period.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) spiked (intra-month) by
Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:
- NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
- Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
- Intel Corp. (INTC)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOG/GOOGL)
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included:
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA)
- AT&T Inc. (T)
- Nio Inc. (NIO)
About the STAX
The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX.
For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax. Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.
The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab.
About Charles Schwab
At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.
More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.
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At the Company
Margaret Farrell
Director, Corporate Communications
(203) 434-2240
margaret.farrell@schwab.com
Source: The Charles Schwab Corporation
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