Schwab Trading Activity Index™: Score Remains at Moderate Levels Despite Dip in August
The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 53.16 in August from 54.81 in July, indicating moderate trading activity among Schwab clients. Investors were net sellers of equities, particularly in Communication Services, Health Care, and Information Technology sectors, while net buying Consumer Discretionary and Energy. This shift suggests a rotation from equities to fixed income as a de-risking strategy.
Despite market volatility, including a significant sell-off in early August, major indices showed resilience. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high of 41,585.21 on August 30. Economic indicators were mixed, with softer-than-expected jobs data and inflation metrics coming in slightly below expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 6.88% to 3.911%, while the US Dollar Index declined by 2.51% to 101.70.
L'indice di attività di trading Schwab™ (STAX) è sceso a 53,16 ad agosto rispetto a 54,81 a luglio, indicando una moderata attività di trading tra i clienti Schwab. Gli investitori sono stati venditori netti di azioni, in particolare nei settori dei Servizi di Comunicazione, della Salute e della Tecnologia dell'Informazione, mentre hanno acquistato nettamente beni di consumo discrezionali ed energia. Questo cambiamento suggerisce una rotazione dalle azioni ai redditi fissi come strategia di discesa del rischio.
Nonostante la volatilità del mercato, compresa una significativa svendita all'inizio di agosto, i principali indici hanno mostrato resilienza. Il Dow Jones Industrial Average ha raggiunto un nuovo massimo di 41.585,21 il 30 agosto. Gli indicatori economici erano misti, con dati occupazionali più deboli del previsto e metriche di inflazione leggermente sotto le aspettative. Il rendimento del Treasury decennale è sceso del 6,88% al 3,911%, mentre l'indice del dollaro statunitense è sceso del 2,51% a 101,70.
El Índice de Actividad Comercial Schwab™ (STAX) disminuyó a 53.16 en agosto desde 54.81 en julio, lo que indica una actividad comercial moderada entre los clientes de Schwab. Los inversores fueron vendedores netos de acciones, particularmente en los sectores de Servicios de Comunicación, Salud y Tecnología de la Información, mientras que compraron netamente Bienes de Consumo Discrecional y Energía. Este cambio sugiere una rotación de acciones a ingresos fijos como una estrategia para reducir el riesgo.
A pesar de la volatilidad del mercado, incluida una venta masiva significativa a principios de agosto, los principales índices mostraron resiliencia. El Promedio Industrial Dow Jones alcanzó un nuevo máximo de 41,585.21 el 30 de agosto. Los indicadores económicos fueron mixtos, con datos de empleo más débiles de lo esperado y métricas de inflación un poco por debajo de las expectativas. El rendimiento del Tesoro a 10 años cayó un 6.88% al 3.911%, mientras que el Índice del Dólar de EE. UU. disminuyó un 2.51% a 101.70.
슈왑 거래 활동 지수™(STAX)는 7월 54.81에서 8월 53.16로 감소하여 슈왑 고객들 사이에서 중간 수준의 거래 활동을 나타냅니다. 투자자들은 통신 서비스, 헬스케어 및 정보 기술 분야에서 순매도자였으며, 소비재 및 에너지에서는 순매수를 기록했습니다. 이러한 변화는 주식에서 고정 수입으로의 회전을 통해 리스크를 줄이려는 전략을 시사합니다.
시장의 변동성에도 불구하고, 8월 초에 심각한 매도세가 있었던 가운데 주요 지수들은 회복력을 보였습니다. 다우 존스 산업 평균은 8월 30일 41,585.21의 새로운 최고치에 도달했습니다. 경제 지표들은 혼재되어 있었으며, 예상보다 부진한 고용 데이터와 인플레이션 수치들이 다소 기대에 미치지 못했습니다. 10년 만기 미국 국채 수익률은 6.88% 하락하여 3.911%에 이르렀고, 미국 달러 지수는 2.51% 하락하여 101.70에 이르렀습니다.
L'indice d'activité de négociation Schwab™ (STAX) a diminué à 53,16 en août contre 54,81 en juillet, indiquant une activité de négociation modérée parmi les clients de Schwab. Les investisseurs étaient vendeurs nets d'actions, en particulier dans les secteurs des services de communication, de la santé et de la technologie de l'information, tout en étant des acheteurs nets de biens de consommation discrétionnaires et d'énergie. Ce changement suggère une rotation des actions vers les revenus fixes comme stratégie de réduction des risques.
Malgré la volatilité du marché, y compris une vente importante au début d'août, les principaux indices ont montré de la résilience. Le Dow Jones Industrial Average a atteint un nouveau sommet de 41 585,21 le 30 août. Les indicateurs économiques étaient mixtes, avec des données sur l'emploi plus faibles que prévu et des mesures de l'inflation légèrement inférieures aux attentes. Le rendement des obligations du Trésor à 10 ans a chuté de 6,88 % à 3,911 %, tandis que l'indice du dollar américain a diminué de 2,51 % à 101,70.
Der Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) fiel im August auf 53,16 von 54,81 im Juli, was auf eine moderate Handelsaktivität unter den Schwab-Kunden hinweist. Die Investoren waren netto Verkäufer von Aktien, insbesondere im Bereich Kommunikation, Gesundheitswesen und Informationstechnologie, während sie Netto-Käufe im Bereich zyklische Konsumgüter und Energie tätigten. Diese Verschiebung deutet auf eine Rotation von Aktien zu festverzinslichen Wertpapieren als Strategie zur Risikominimierung hin.
Trotz der Marktschwankungen, einschließlich eines erheblichen Verkaufsdrucks Anfang August, zeigten die wichtigsten Indizes Resilienz. Der Dow Jones Industrial Average erreichte am 30. August ein neues Hoch von 41.585,21. Die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren waren gemischt, mit schwächeren als erwarteten Arbeitsmarktdaten und inflationsbezogenen Kennzahlen, die leicht unter den Erwartungen lagen. Die Rendite der 10-jährigen Staatsanleihen fiel um 6,88% auf 3,911%, während der US-Dollar-Index um 2,51% auf 101,70 fiel.
- STAX score of 53.16 indicates moderate trading activity, suggesting ongoing investor engagement
- Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high of 41,585.21 on August 30
- Q2 GDP estimates were raised to 3% from Q1's 1.4%, driven by increased consumer spending and business investments
- Inflation metrics (CPI and PPI) came in slightly below expectations, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve
- Overall net selling of equities by Schwab clients, particularly in Communication Services, Health Care, and Information Technology sectors
- Decrease in STAX score from 54.81 in July to 53.16 in August, indicating reduced trading activity
- Softer-than-expected jobs data, with unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and non-farm payrolls missing consensus estimates
- 10-year Treasury yield fell by 6.88%, potentially signaling economic concerns
Insights
The Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) provides valuable insights into retail investor behavior. The decrease to 53.16 in August from 54.81 in July indicates a moderate level of trading activity. This shift suggests a cautious sentiment among retail investors, potentially influenced by market volatility and economic indicators.
Key observations:
- Net selling of equities, particularly in Communication Services, Health Care and IT sectors
- Net buying in Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors
- Rotation from equities to fixed income, indicating a de-risking strategy
- Opportunistic buying during market dips, showing some investor confidence
The market's resilience, evidenced by the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high, contrasts with the overall cautious investor behavior. This divergence warrants attention and may indicate a disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment.
The STAX data reveals interesting trends in investor behavior amidst economic uncertainties. The rise in unemployment to 4.3% and lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls suggest a potential softening in the labor market. This, coupled with the CPI at 2.9% and PPI at 0.1%, indicates progress towards the Fed's inflation targets.
Investor actions reflect these economic signals:
- Shift towards fixed income suggests anticipation of potential interest rate cuts
- Net buying in Consumer Discretionary may indicate confidence in consumer spending
- Net selling in IT and Communication Services could signal profit-taking or sector rotation
The increased Q2 GDP estimate to 3% is a positive sign, driven by consumer spending and business investments. However, the VIX spike and subsequent moderation highlight ongoing market uncertainty. These mixed signals explain the 'moderate' STAX reading and suggest investors are carefully balancing risk and opportunity in the current economic landscape.
Schwab clients were net sellers of equities overall and across the Communication Services, Health Care and Information Technology sectors in August; they net bought Consumer Discretionary and Energy
Schwab Trading Activity Index vs. S&P 500 (Graphic: Charles Schwab)
The reading for the five-week period ending August 30, 2024, ranks “moderate” compared to historic averages.
“Schwab clients appeared to rotate out of equities and into fixed income securities as a means of de-risking, which pushed the overall STAX score lower this month,” said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. “While the August trading period started with a bang on August 5 – a day that’s been called a ‘meltdown’ or ‘crash’ by many – the markets recovered remarkably quickly, and, despite net selling overall, we did see many Schwab clients using the volatility to their advantage and taking the opportunity to buy the dip.”
Volatility in equity markets persisted throughout the August STAX period. However, major indices did notch multi-day winning streaks, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high of 41,585.21 on the last day of the period, August 30. The “yen carry trade” was still in play in early August following the Bank of Japan’s raise of 15 basis points on July 31. Once the unwind completed, it likely reduced some of the selling pressure on
On August 1, initial jobless claims came in at 249,000, slightly higher than expected. By itself, this metric is not enough to signal a softening labor market. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) just one day prior noted that enough data points from recent months have pointed to progress towards employment and inflation targets and that a pivot towards easing of interest rates is imminent, with the announcement of a rate cut anticipated in September. The
Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) came in just below expectations at
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) did experience another
Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:
- NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
- Intel Corp. (INTC)
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD)
Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included:
- Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
- PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL)
- Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW)
About the STAX
The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX.
For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax. Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.
Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.
The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab.
About Charles Schwab
At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.
More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.
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At the Company
Margaret Farrell
Director, Corporate Communications
(203) 434-2240
margaret.farrell@schwab.com
Source: The Charles Schwab Corporation
FAQ
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