Schwab Survey: Two-Thirds of Traders Feel the Market Is Overvalued but Sentiment for the Quarter Ahead Remains Bullish
Charles Schwab's latest quarterly trader client sentiment survey reveals that while two-thirds of traders believe the market is currently overvalued, overall sentiment remains bullish at 51% compared to 34% bearish. Younger traders (under 40) have shown a significant increase in bullishness, jumping from 47% in Q4 2024 to 59% in Q1 2025.
The survey indicates a notable decline in recession expectations, with only one-third of traders believing a 2025 recession is somewhat likely, down from 54% in Q4 2024. Most traders anticipate interest rate cuts of 50 basis points or fewer this year, while two-thirds expect inflation to hold steady.
Sector-wise, traders are most bullish on Energy, IT, Finance, and Utilities, with Finance seeing an 11-point quarterly increase. Regarding the new administration, traders consider it the most significant factor impacting the stock market in 2025, ahead of Fed policy, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and corporate earnings.
Il ultimo sondaggio sulla sentiment dei trader clienti di Charles Schwab rivela che, mentre due terzi dei trader credono che attualmente il mercato sia sopravvalutato, il sentiment generale rimane ottimista al 51% rispetto al 34% di sentiment negativo. I trader più giovani (sotto i 40 anni) hanno mostrato un significativo aumento dell'ottimismo, passando dal 47% nel Q4 2024 al 59% nel Q1 2025.
Il sondaggio indica una notevole diminuzione delle aspettative di recessione, con solo un terzo dei trader che crede che una recessione nel 2025 sia abbastanza probabile, in calo dal 54% nel Q4 2024. La maggior parte dei trader prevede riduzioni dei tassi d'interesse di 50 punti base o meno quest'anno, mentre due terzi si aspettano che l'inflazione rimanga stabile.
Settorialmente, i trader sono più ottimisti riguardo a Energia, IT, Finanza e Utilità, con la Finanza che ha registrato un incremento trimestrale di 11 punti. Riguardo alla nuova amministrazione, i trader la considerano il fattore più significativo che impatta il mercato azionario nel 2025, davanti alla politica della Fed, ai conflitti geopolitici, all'inflazione e agli utili aziendali.
La última encuesta de sentimiento de clientes traders de Charles Schwab revela que, aunque dos tercios de los traders creen que el mercado está actualmente sobrevalorado, el sentimiento general se mantiene optimista en un 51% en comparación con un 34% pesimista. Los traders más jóvenes (menores de 40 años) han mostrado un aumento significativo en el optimismo, saltando del 47% en el Q4 2024 al 59% en el Q1 2025.
La encuesta indica una notable disminución en las expectativas de recesión, con solo un tercio de los traders creyendo que una recesión en 2025 es algo probable, bajando del 54% en el Q4 2024. La mayoría de los traders anticipan recortes de tasas de interés de 50 puntos base o menos este año, mientras que dos tercios esperan que la inflación se mantenga estable.
Por sectores, los traders son más optimistas sobre energía, TI, finanzas y servicios públicos, con finanzas viendo un aumento trimestral de 11 puntos. En cuanto a la nueva administración, los traders la consideran el factor más significativo que impacta el mercado de valores en 2025, por delante de la política de la Fed, los conflictos geopolíticos, la inflación y las ganancias corporativas.
찰스 슈왑의 최신 분기 거래자 고객 감정 조사에 따르면, 거래자의 3분의 2가 현재 시장이 과대 평가되었다고 믿고 있지만, 전체 감정은 51%의 긍정적인 태도를 유지하고 있으며, 34%는 부정적입니다. 젊은 거래자들 (40세 이하)은 긍정적인 태도가 크게 증가하여 2024년 4분기 47%에서 2025년 1분기 59%로 뛰었습니다.
조사는 경기 침체에 대한 기대가 눈에 띄게 감소했음을 나타내며, 거래자의 3분의 1만이 2025년 경기 침체가 다소 가능성이 있다고 믿고 있으며, 이는 2024년 4분기의 54%에서 감소한 수치입니다. 대부분의 거래자는 올해 50베이시스 포인트 이하의 금리 인하를 예상하고 있으며, 3분의 2는 인플레이션이 안정될 것으로 예상합니다.
업종별로 거래자들은 에너지, IT, 금융 및 유틸리티에 대해 가장 긍정적이며, 금융 부문은 분기별로 11포인트 증가했습니다. 새로운 행정부에 관해서는 거래자들이 2025년 주식 시장에 영향을 미치는 가장 중요한 요소로 간주하며, 연준의 정책, 지정학적 갈등, 인플레이션 및 기업 수익보다 앞서 있습니다.
Le dernier sondage sur le sentiment des clients traders de Charles Schwab révèle que, bien que deux tiers des traders croient que le marché est actuellement surévalué, le sentiment général reste optimiste à 51% contre 34% pessimiste. Les traders plus jeunes (moins de 40 ans) ont montré une augmentation significative de l'optimisme, passant de 47% au T4 2024 à 59% au T1 2025.
Le sondage indique une baisse notable des attentes de récession, avec seulement un tiers des traders croyant qu'une récession en 2025 est quelque peu probable, en baisse par rapport à 54% au T4 2024. La plupart des traders s'attendent à des baisses de taux d'intérêt de 50 points de base ou moins cette année, tandis que deux tiers s'attendent à ce que l'inflation reste stable.
Par secteur, les traders sont les plus optimistes concernant l'énergie, l'informatique, la finance et les services publics, la finance enregistrant une augmentation trimestrielle de 11 points. Concernant la nouvelle administration, les traders la considèrent comme le facteur le plus significatif influençant le marché boursier en 2025, devant la politique de la Fed, les conflits géopolitiques, l'inflation et les bénéfices des entreprises.
Die neueste Umfrage zur Stimmung von Trader-Kunden bei Charles Schwab zeigt, dass während zwei Drittel der Trader glauben, dass der Markt derzeit überbewertet ist, die allgemeine Stimmung optimistisch bei 51% bleibt im Vergleich zu 34% pessimistisch. Jüngere Trader (unter 40) haben einen signifikanten Anstieg des Optimismus gezeigt, der von 47% im Q4 2024 auf 59% im Q1 2025 gestiegen ist.
Die Umfrage zeigt einen bemerkenswerten Rückgang der Rezessions-Erwartungen, wobei nur ein Drittel der Trader glaubt, dass eine Rezession 2025 einigermaßen wahrscheinlich ist, im Vergleich zu 54% im Q4 2024. Die meisten Trader erwarten Zinssenkungen von 50 Basispunkten oder weniger in diesem Jahr, während zwei Drittel erwarten, dass die Inflation stabil bleibt.
Nach Sektoren sind die Trader am optimistischsten in Bezug auf Energie, IT, Finanzen und Versorgungsunternehmen, wobei die Finanzen einen vierteljährlichen Anstieg von 11 Punkten verzeichnen. In Bezug auf die neue Verwaltung betrachten die Trader dies als den wichtigsten Faktor, der den Aktienmarkt 2025 beeinflusst, vor der Geldpolitik der Fed, geopolitischen Konflikten, Inflation und Unternehmensgewinnen.
- Bullish sentiment remains strong at 51% despite market valuation concerns
- Younger traders (under 40) show increased optimism, with bullishness jumping from 47% to 59%
- Significant decrease in recession expectations for 2025
- Finance sector saw an 11-point increase in bullish sentiment
- Cryptocurrencies and Spot Crypto ETFs experienced 10-point jumps in bullish sentiment
- Two-thirds of traders believe the market is currently overvalued
- Mega cap tech and AI stocks are considered among the most crowded trades
- Bearish sentiment on Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sectors
- Health Care sector saw a 17-point drop in bullish sentiment
- Decreasing bullishness on international stocks and meme stocks
Bullishness among Schwab trader clients under the age of 40 jumps from
“It’s clear that the majority of traders believe there’s some froth in the market but on balance they also feel like there’s still more room for the bulls to run,” said James Kostulias, head of Trading Services at Charles Schwab. “Our latest trader client sentiment survey also shows a strong increase in bullishness among younger traders at Schwab, as well as continued engagement across all types of traders. More than half of traders plan to move additional money into stocks in Q1.”
The survey found a significant drop in the number of traders who believe the
Sector and asset class views
Looking across sectors, traders are most bullish on Energy, IT, Finance, and Utilities. Notably, Finance saw a jump of 11 points quarter over quarter. Traders are bearish on Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care saw a drop of 17 points.
Bullish Sector Sentiment |
4Q ‘24 |
1Q ‘25 |
Energy |
|
|
Information Technology |
|
|
Finance |
|
|
Utilities |
|
|
Industrials |
|
|
Materials |
|
|
Consumer Staples |
|
|
Communications |
|
|
Health Care |
|
|
Consumer Discretionary |
|
|
Real Estate |
|
|
When asked about asset classes and types, traders report the most positive sentiment toward domestic stocks, value stocks, growth stocks, AI stocks, and equities in general. Bullishness on cryptocurrencies and Spot Crypto ETFs both saw 10-point jumps. Fewer traders are bullish on meme stocks and international stocks.
Bullish sentiment over next three months |
4Q ‘24 |
1Q ‘25 |
Domestic stocks |
|
|
Value stocks |
|
|
Growth stocks |
|
|
AI stocks |
|
|
Equities in general |
|
|
Mega Cap Tech stocks |
|
|
Cryptocurrencies |
|
|
Commodities |
|
|
Fixed income |
|
|
Spot Crypto ETFs |
|
|
International stocks |
|
|
Meme stocks |
|
|
“Traders are likely reacting to sectors they believe stand to benefit from the new administration in Washington,” said Kostulias. “That extends to crypto too where the regulatory environment is shifting fast and expected to become more friendly for the sector.”
The new administration
Traders believe the new administration will be the greatest single factor impacting the stock market in 2025. Its impact ranks well ahead of factors including Fed policy, geopolitical conflict, inflation, and corporate earnings, according to the survey.
Factors that will have the biggest impact on the stock market in 2025 |
|
New |
|
Fed policy |
|
Geopolitical conflict |
|
Inflation increasing |
|
|
|
Recession and/or recession fears |
|
The proliferation of AI |
|
About the Charles Schwab Trader Sentiment Survey
The Charles Schwab Trader Sentiment Survey is a quarterly study exploring the outlooks, expectations, trading patterns and points of view of clients at Charles Schwab–who actively trade equities or trade options, futures, or forex. The study included 1,040 Active Trader clients at Charles Schwab and was fielded from January 8-17, 2025.
About Charles Schwab
At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.
More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.
Disclosures
Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.
All investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before investing.
©2025 Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. All rights reserved. Member SIPC.
0225-YM63
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250225063045/en/
Margaret Farrell
Director, Corporate Communications
(203) 434-2240
margaret.farrell@schwab.com
Source: The Charles Schwab Corporation
FAQ
What percentage of Schwab traders are bullish on the market for Q1 2025?
How has bullish sentiment changed among younger SCHW traders?
Which sectors are Schwab traders most bullish on for 2025?
What do SCHW traders believe about interest rate cuts in 2025?
How have recession expectations changed among Schwab traders?
What factor do SCHW traders believe will most impact the stock market in 2025?
Which investment categories saw increased bullish sentiment in the latest Schwab survey?
