Schwab Center for Financial Research Announces 2025 Market Outlook
Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) has released its annual market outlook for 2025, providing comprehensive insights across multiple financial sectors. The report indicates a complex economic landscape ahead, with crosscurrents from tariff, immigration, and tax policies. While U.S. equities show strong momentum and breadth entering 2025, increased volatility is expected due to sticky inflation and labor market challenges.
The fixed income outlook suggests a volatile year with the Federal Reserve's planned rate cuts competing with inflation risks. Corporate bonds show strong fundamentals but rich valuations, while municipal bonds are expected to face a year of two halves, heavily influenced by tax policy changes. The global outlook indicates potential volatility but suggests solid returns for international stocks, despite challenges from trade policy and slower growth.
Il Centro Schwab per la Ricerca Finanziaria (SCFR) ha pubblicato la sua previsione annuale per il mercato del 2025, fornendo approfondimenti completi su più settori finanziari. Il rapporto indica un panorama economico complesso per il futuro, con interferenze provenienti da tariffe, politiche migratorie e fiscali. Sebbene le azioni statunitensi mostrino un forte slancio e ampiezza all'inizio del 2025, si prevede un aumento della volatilità a causa dell'inflazione persistente e delle sfide nel mercato del lavoro.
Le prospettive per i redditi fissi suggeriscono un anno volatile, con i piani di riduzione dei tassi della Federal Reserve che competono con i rischi inflazionistici. Le obbligazioni societarie mostrano fondamentali solidi ma valutazioni elevate, mentre le obbligazioni municipali sono previste affrontare un anno diviso in due parti, pesantemente influenzato dai cambiamenti nelle politiche fiscali. Le prospettive globali indicano una potenziale volatilità ma suggeriscono rendimenti solidi per le azioni internazionali, nonostante le sfide provenienti dalla politica commerciale e da una crescita più lenta.
El Centro Schwab de Investigación Financiera (SCFR) ha publicado su perspectiva anual del mercado para 2025, proporcionando una visión completa de múltiples sectores financieros. El informe indica un paisaje económico complejo por delante, con corrientes cruzadas de tarifas, inmigración y políticas fiscales. Si bien las acciones de EE. UU. muestran un fuerte impulso y amplitud al entrar en 2025, se espera una mayor volatilidad debido a la inflación persistente y los desafíos en el mercado laboral.
Las perspectivas para los ingresos fijos sugieren un año volátil, con las reducciones de tasas planeadas por la Reserva Federal compitiendo con los riesgos de inflación. Los bonos corporativos presentan fundamentos sólidos pero valoraciones elevadas, mientras que se espera que los bonos municipales enfrenten un año de dos mitades, fuertemente influenciado por los cambios en la política fiscal. Las perspectivas globales indican una posible volatilidad pero sugieren sólidos rendimientos para las acciones internacionales, a pesar de los desafíos derivados de la política comercial y un crecimiento más lento.
슈와브 금융 연구 센터(SCFR)는 2025년 시장 전망을 발표하며 여러 금융 분야에 대한 포괄적인 통찰력을 제공합니다. 보고서는 관세, 이민 및 세금 정책의 교차 흐름으로 인해 복잡한 경제 환경이 예상된다고 합니다. 미국 주식은 2025년을 맞아 강한 모멘텀과 폭을 보여주고 있지만, 지속적인 인플레이션과 노동 시장의 도전으로 인해 변동성이 높아질 것으로 예상됩니다.
고정 수익 전망은 변동성이 큰 한 해를 제시하며, 연준의 금리 인하 계획이 인플레이션 위험과 경쟁하고 있습니다. 기업채는 탄탄한 펀더멘털을 보이나 높은 평가를 받고 있고, 지방채는 세금 정책 변화에 크게 영향을 받아 상반기로 나뉘어진 한 해를 겪을 것으로 예상됩니다. 글로벌 전망은 잠재적인 변동성을 나타내지만, 무역 정책과 둔화된 성장의 도전에도 불구하고 국제 주식에 대한 탄탄한 수익을 제안합니다.
Le Centre Schwab pour la Recherche Financière (SCFR) a publié sa perspective annuelle pour le marché de 2025, fournissant des aperçus complets sur plusieurs secteurs financiers. Le rapport indique un paysage économique complexe à venir, avec des courants croisés provenant des tarifs, de l'immigration et des politiques fiscales. Bien que les actions américaines montrent un fort élan et une large base en entrant dans 2025, une volatilité accrue est attendue en raison d'une inflation persistante et des défis sur le marché du travail.
Les perspectives pour les revenus fixes suggèrent une année volatile, avec les baisses de taux prévues par la Réserve fédérale en concurrence avec les risques d'inflation. Les obligations d'entreprise présentent des fondamentaux solides mais des évaluations élevées, tandis que les obligations municipales devraient connaître une année en deux temps, fortement influencée par les changements de politique fiscale. Les perspectives mondiales indiquent une volatilité potentielle mais suggèrent des rendements solides pour les actions internationales, malgré les défis posés par la politique commerciale et un ralentissement de la croissance.
Das Schwab Zentrum für Finanzforschung (SCFR) hat seinen jährlichen Marktbericht für 2025 veröffentlicht, der umfassende Einblicke in mehrere Finanzsektoren bietet. Der Bericht weist auf eine komplexe wirtschaftliche Lage hin, mit Strömungen aus Zölle, Einwanderung und Steuerpolitik. Während die US-Aktien zu Beginn von 2025 ein starkes Momentum und Breite zeigen, wird erwartet, dass die Volatilität aufgrund von hartnäckiger Inflation und Herausforderungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zunimmt.
Die Aussichten für festverzinsliche Anlagen deuten auf ein volatiles Jahr hin, in dem die geplanten Zinssenkungen der Federal Reserve mit Inflationsrisiken konkurrieren. Unternehmensanleihen zeigen starke Fundamentaldaten, jedoch hohe Bewertungen, während von kommunalen Anleihen erwartet wird, dass sie ein Jahr mit zwei Hälften erleben, das stark von Veränderungen in der Steuerpolitik beeinflusst wird. Die globalen Aussichten weisen auf potenzielle Volatilität hin, schlagen jedoch solide Renditen für internationale Aktien vor, trotz der Herausforderungen durch die Handelspolitik und ein langsameres Wachstum.
- Strong corporate fundamentals with growing profits and rising cash balances
- Solid momentum and breadth in U.S. equities entering 2025
- Most municipal bond issuers entering 2025 with strong reserves
- Expected increased market volatility due to sticky inflation and labor market concerns
- Rich corporate bond valuations limiting potential returns
- Anticipated slower than average growth in global economy and corporate earnings
- Potential risks from aggressive tariff hikes and labor force reduction
The Schwab Market Perspective: 2025 Outlook provides perspectives on
2025 U.S. Stocks and Economy Outlook |
“There will likely be myriad economic crosscurrents at play in 2025, stemming from uncertainty around tariff, immigration, and tax policies. On the pro-growth side, the prospect of less-stringent regulations and lower taxes are at odds with the prospect of aggressive hikes in tariffs on imported goods and a major reduction in the labor force. For Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, and Kevin Gordon, Senior Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. |
2025 Fixed Income Outlook |
“It looks like another bumpy ride is in store for fixed income investors in 2025, with a wide range of potential outcomes. The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates, and the risks to higher inflation and debt levels in 2025 from potential policy decisions made in Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. |
2025 Corporate Bond Outlook |
“Our 2025 corporate bond outlook in a nutshell: Strong fundamentals, rich valuations. Like the resilient economy, corporations generally remain strong as profits grow and cash balances rise. That's been a key driver of the outperformance so far this year, as falling credit spreads have pulled up corporate bond prices relative to Treasuries. That performance will be tough to replicate because spreads are so tight, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economic backdrop.” Collin Martin, Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. |
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook |
“We expect the muni market to be characterized by a tale of two half-years in 2025. Changes to tax policy will likely dominate the first half of the year and then munis should adjust over the second half of the year. We're cautious about longer-term bonds and lower-rated issuers going into 2025. The outcome of the election has raised the probability that inflation and yields move higher. Credit conditions for most issuers are favorable and many issuers are entering 2025 with strong reserves that they can tap into if there's a slowdown in revenues.” Cooper Howard, Fixed Income Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. |
2025 Global Outlook |
“2025 may bring hurdles for stocks in the form of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy, and slower than average growth in the global economy and corporate earnings. All these may drive volatility. But improving growth, along with a rise in stock valuations, may support solid returns overall for international stocks in 2025, with differing opportunities by region.” Jeffrey Kleintop, Chief Global Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. |
2025 Planning and Wealth Management Outlook |
“With a new administration in Rob Williams, Managing Director of Financial Planning, Retirement Income, and Wealth Management, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. |
Learn more about the Schwab Center for Financial Research’s 2025 Market Outlook here and 2025 Planning and Wealth Management Outlook here.
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The information here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
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Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.
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Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.
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Kaitlyn Campisi
Charles Schwab
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Source: The Charles Schwab Corporation
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