DAT: September ‘firmly into a new truckload freight cycle’

Rhea-AI Summary

DAT Freight & Analytics reports that September 2023 marked the beginning of a new truckload freight cycle, with volumes and rates indicating an upswing in cyclical demand for truckload capacity. The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) showed seasonal declines for van, refrigerated, and flatbed freight, but all three equipment types saw year-over-year increases. Linehaul spot rates also improved compared to the previous year.

National average spot truckload rates decreased by 3 cents across all equipment types from August, mainly due to lower fuel surcharges. However, linehaul rates remained stable month-over-month and showed slight increases year-over-year. Contract rates for van, reefer, and flatbed freight experienced modest declines.

The load-to-truck ratios for van and reefer freight decreased, while the flatbed ratio increased, indicating a balanced truckload supply and demand in the spot market as Q4 begins. DAT's Chief of Analytics, Ken Adamo, expects the new freight cycle to resemble the 2013-2017 period more closely than the volatile 2018-2022 cycle.

Positive

• Year-over-year increases in Truckload Volume Index for all equipment types
• Linehaul spot rates improved year-over-year for all equipment types
• Balanced truckload supply and demand in the spot market
• Expectations of seasonality providing tailwinds in the coming months

Negative

• Seasonal decline in Truckload Volume Index for van, refrigerated, and flatbed freight
• 3-cent decrease in national average spot truckload rates across all equipment types
• Modest declines in contract rates for van, reefer, and flatbed freight
• Decrease in van and reefer load-to-truck ratios

Insights

Market Research Analyst

September's truckload freight data indicates a shift towards a new freight cycle, marking the end of a prolonged period of expansion and contraction. Key observations include:

• Truckload Volume Index (TVI) showed seasonal declines across van, reefer and flatbed segments, but remained higher year-over-year.
• Linehaul spot rates increased year-over-year, with flatbeds showing the largest gain of 6 cents per mile.
• Contract rates experienced slight declines across all segments.
• Load-to-truck ratios indicate a balanced supply-demand environment, particularly in the spot market.

This transition suggests a more stable freight market ahead, potentially resembling the 2013-2017 cycle rather than the volatile 2018-2022 period. For investors, this stability could translate to more predictable performance for trucking and logistics companies, with potential for modest growth as seasonal demand picks up in Q4.

Financial Analyst

The freight market's transition to a new cycle presents a mixed financial outlook for the industry. Positive indicators include:

• Year-over-year increases in linehaul rates across all segments, suggesting improved pricing power.
• Higher Truckload Volume Index values compared to last year, indicating stronger demand.
• Expectations of seasonal tailwinds in Q4, which could boost revenues.

However, challenges remain:

• Month-over-month declines in spot rates, primarily due to lower fuel surcharges.
• Slight decreases in contract rates, which could pressure margins.
• Unchanged linehaul rates month-over-month, limiting immediate profit growth.

For investors, this environment suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook. Companies with efficient operations and strong customer relationships may be better positioned to capitalize on the modest improvements in rates and volumes expected in the coming months.

BEAVERTON, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Truckload freight volumes and rates in September signaled that the usual cyclical demand for truckload capacity is on the upswing, said DAT Freight & Analytics, which operates the DAT One freight marketplace and DAT iQ data analytics service.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) declined seasonally for van, refrigerated (“reefer”), and flatbed freight last month:

• Van TVI: 271, down 7% month over month
• Reefer TVI: 208, down 7%
• Flatbed TVI: 272, down 2%

However, the TVI was higher for all three equipment types year over year. The van TVI was up 6%, the reefer TVI was 12% higher, and the flatbed TVI rose 2% compared to September 2023. Linehaul spot rates also were higher year over year.

“September showed we’re firmly into a new freight cycle after nearly 22 months of rather extreme expansion and 27 months of contraction,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics. “We expect seasonality to provide some tailwinds over the next few months, and hopefully modest improvements in rates coupled with retail freight volumes and stable fuel prices can get the motor carrier base on more solid footing.”

Linehaul rates were unchanged compared to August

National average spot truckload rates declined by 3 cents for all three equipment types compared to August, primarily due to lower fuel surcharges. The spot van rate averaged $1.97 a mile, the reefer rate averaged $2.37, and the flatbed rate averaged $2.38 last month.

Linehaul rates were unchanged at $1.59 a mile for van freight, $1.95 for reefer freight, and $1.92 for flatbed freight. Year over year, linehaul rates were up by 2 cents for vans, 3 cents for reefers, and 6 cents for flatbeds. Linehaul rates subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge.

National average rates for freight moving under long-term contracts fell modestly:

• Contract van rate: $2.39 per mile, down 1 cent
• Contract reefer rate: $2.73 a mile, down 2 cents
• Contract flatbed rate: $3.04 a mile, down 3 cents

Van and reefer load-to-truck ratios declined

The national average van load-to-truck ratio was 3.5, down from 3.6 in August, while the reefer ratio dropped from 6.0 to 5.0. The flatbed ratio was 12.8, up from 9.8. Load-to-truck ratios reflect truckload supply and demand on the DAT One marketplace and indicate the pricing environment for spot truckload freight.

“Entering Q4, we’re seeing equilibrium with truckload supply and demand, especially in the spot market,” Adamo said. “The shape and feel of this new cycle will probably be more like the 2013 to 2017 cycle than the rollercoaster ride of 2018 to 2022, with the ELD mandate, manufacturing recession, and unpredictable supply shocks of the COVID pandemic.”

About the DAT Truckload Volume Index

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month. A baseline of 100 equals the number of loads moved in January 2015, as recorded in DAT RateView, a truckload pricing database and analysis tool with rates paid on an average of 3 million loads per month.

DAT benchmark spot rates are derived from invoice data for hauls of 250 miles or more with a pickup date during the month reported. Linehaul rates subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge.

About DAT Freight & Analytics

DAT Freight & Analytics operates the largest truckload freight marketplace and truckload freight data analytics service in North America. Shippers, transportation brokers, carriers, news organizations, and industry analysts rely on DAT for market trends and data insights based on more than 400 million annual freight matches and a database of $150 billion in annual freight market transactions.

Founded in 1978, DAT is a business unit of Roper Technologies (Nasdaq: ROP), a constituent of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Fortune 1000. DAT is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241015297952/en/

DAT Contact

Georgia Jablon

PR@dat.com / annabel.reeves@dat.com; 503-501-0143

Source: DAT Freight & Analytics

FAQ

What were the changes in DAT Truckload Volume Index for September 2023?

The DAT Truckload Volume Index declined seasonally for all equipment types in September 2023: Van TVI was down 7% to 271, Reefer TVI down 7% to 208, and Flatbed TVI down 2% to 272 compared to the previous month. However, all indices showed year-over-year increases.

How did linehaul spot rates change in September 2023 compared to the previous year?

Linehaul spot rates in September 2023 increased year-over-year for all equipment types. Van rates were up 2 cents, reefer rates up 3 cents, and flatbed rates up 6 cents compared to September 2022.

What were the national average spot truckload rates for September 2023?

In September 2023, the national average spot truckload rates were $1.97 per mile for vans, $2.37 per mile for reefers, and $2.38 per mile for flatbeds. These rates declined by 3 cents across all equipment types compared to August, primarily due to lower fuel surcharges.

How did contract rates change for truckload freight in September 2023?

Contract rates for truckload freight decreased slightly in September 2023. The van rate fell 1 cent to $2.39 per mile, the reefer rate dropped 2 cents to $2.73 per mile, and the flatbed rate decreased 3 cents to $3.04 per mile.