DAT 2025 Freight Focus Report: Shippers brace for higher truckload rates, tighter capacity as the COVID-era freight cycle ends

BEAVERTON, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Truckload transportation will enter 2025 firmly in a new business cycle, bringing fresh opportunities and uncertainty to freight shippers, brokers, and carriers, according to the latest annual Freight Focus Transportation & Logistics Outlook report from DAT Freight & Analytics.

Shippers brace for higher truckload rates, tighter capacity as the COVID-era freight cycle ends (Graphic: DAT Freight & Analytics)

After the volatility of the last four years, businesses face shifts in geopolitics, trade policy, immigration, consumer sentiment, automation and AI, and available capacity that will directly affect their costs, service levels, and efficiency.

The report outlines key issues for 2025:

• Truckload rates will rise gradually: With fewer new carriers replacing those exiting the marketplace, truckload pricing is expected to increase at a pace similar to pre-pandemic levels beginning in Q2, barring a significant disruption that would accelerate the process. This offers potential advantages for larger carriers with robust networks and negotiating power.
• Relationships and trust matter: The post-COVID surge in industry fraud underscored the importance of trusted partnerships. Heightened vetting practices will be put to the test when markets heat up.
• Shippers need to be flexible: A more dynamic approach to procurement can help shippers maintain flexibility and predictability, specifically on lower-volume lanes, which tend to be the most volatile from a pricing standpoint. With current capabilities in market analytics, shippers can handle those lanes through mini-bids or other strategies that keep costs more in line with the broader market.
• Carriers see opportunity ahead: The oversupplied transportation market and high operating costs has led many small to midsize carriers to either downsize or exit. While the imbalance will persist into 2025, carriers that prioritized cost controls, reliable service, and relationships are positioned to leverage those advantages into better rates.

“Freight shippers, brokers, and carriers didn’t make it through this latest cycle by reacting to events happening around them,” said DAT President and CEO Jeff Clementz. “They planned for uncertainty. They understand the power of predicting market shifts, building trust, and communicating effectively at every step.”

DAT’s 2025 Freight Focus report also ranks the top markets for dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed freight in 2024 and provides key indicators that will influence the nature of this next business cycle. The report is free and available to download at www.dat.com/DAT-Freight-Focus-2025

About DAT Freight & Analytics

DAT Freight & Analytics operates both the largest truckload freight marketplace and truckload freight data analytics service in North America. Shippers, transportation brokers, carriers, news organizations, and industry analysts rely on DAT for market trends and data insights based on more than 400 million annual freight matches, and a database of $150 billion in annual freight market transactions.

Founded in 1978, DAT is a business unit of Roper Technologies (Nasdaq: ROP), a constituent of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Fortune 1000. DAT is headquartered in Beaverton, Ore. Visit dat.com for more information

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Annabel Reeves

Corporate Communications, DAT Freight & Analytics

PR@dat.com / annabel.reeves@dat.com; 503-501-0143

Source: DAT Freight & Analytics

FAQ

What are the key truckload rate predictions for 2025?

Truckload rates are expected to increase gradually starting in Q2 2025, returning to pre-pandemic growth levels, unless significant market disruptions occur.

How will carrier capacity change in the freight market for 2025?

The market will see reduced carrier capacity as fewer new carriers enter to replace those exiting, creating a tighter market condition.

What strategies are recommended for shippers in 2025?

Shippers are advised to adopt flexible procurement approaches, particularly for lower-volume lanes, using mini-bids and market analytics to manage costs.

What challenges will freight carriers face in 2025?

Carriers will face challenges from an oversupplied transportation market and high operating costs, with small to midsize carriers particularly affected.