Cirium’s 2023 Fleet Forecast Predicts Annual Passenger Aircraft Deliveries to Exceed $100 Billion in 2024

Rhea-AI Summary

Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has published its 2023 Fleet Forecast, predicting 45,200 new passenger aircraft deliveries valued at $3.2 trillion between 2023-2042. Freight capacity is expected to grow 4.1% annually. Airbus and Boeing will dominate with an 89% market share through 2042.

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The projection of 45,200 new passenger aircraft deliveries over the next two decades, with an estimated market value of $3.2 trillion, represents a significant investment opportunity for stakeholders in the aerospace sector. The annual growth rate of 4.1% in freight capacity indicates a robust expansion in the cargo segment, which may be driven by the increase in global e-commerce and trade. The dominance of Airbus and Boeing, delivering an estimated 89% of aircraft, underscores the duopolistic nature of the commercial aircraft manufacturing industry.

For investors, the anticipated expenditure exceeding $100 billion in 2024 on passenger aircraft deliveries is a clear indicator of the sector's recovery and growth trajectory post-pandemic. The focus should be on how these two major manufacturers will maintain their market share, especially with potential new market entrants from China. The regional breakdown, with Asia and particularly China, leading in passenger capacity growth, suggests a shift in the geographic focus of the aviation market, which may influence the strategic decisions of aerospace companies and their suppliers.

Financial Analyst

The financial implications of the forecasted delivery of $3.2 trillion worth of new aircraft are profound for the aerospace industry and its supply chain. The capital expenditure involved in meeting this demand will likely result in significant debt and equity financing activities, with implications for the stock prices of involved companies. The forecasted growth in freight capacity may also impact the profitability of airlines and cargo operators, potentially leading to increased demand for air freight services and higher revenues for industry players.

Investors should monitor the capital allocation strategies of Airbus and Boeing, as well as their R&D investments into new programs that could disrupt the current market dynamics. The valuation multiples of aerospace companies may adjust in response to new program announcements or shifts in market share, particularly if Chinese manufacturers begin to capture a significant portion of the market. The high value of twin-aisle deliveries in the Middle East, in terms of value share, reflects the premium segment of the market and may indicate higher profitability margins for manufacturers.

Economist

The forecasted growth in both passenger and freight aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years has broad economic implications. The aviation sector is a key driver of global economic activity and an increase in aircraft deliveries suggests a positive outlook for international trade and tourism. The 4.1% annual growth in freight capacity is particularly noteworthy in the context of a recovering global economy, as it reflects an anticipated increase in trade volumes.

From an economic perspective, the regional focus on Asia and especially China's 8% passenger capacity growth rate, aligns with broader economic shifts towards the Asia-Pacific region. This growth may stimulate further economic development, infrastructure investment and job creation in the region. However, the concentration of market share among Airbus and Boeing raises questions about competition and innovation in the industry, which could have long-term implications for prices and efficiency.

The forecast shows that between 2023-2042, 45,200 new passenger aircraft will be delivered at an estimated value of $3.2 trillion.

Freight capacity is forecast to grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022.

Airbus and Boeing remain the two dominant commercial aircraft OEMs, between them delivering an estimated 89% of aircraft through to 2042.

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, has today published its 2023 Fleet Forecast, through the Cirium Ascend Consultancy, revealing that annual passenger aircraft deliveries are set to exceed $100 billion in 2024.

Figure 1: Forecast deliveries 2023-2042 (Graphic: Business Wire)

The forecast, which enters its eleventh year of publication, also predicts that freight capacity will grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022, and that 3,590 freighter aircraft will be supplied over the next 20 years, including 1,060 new build aircraft and 2,530 conversions from passenger aircraft.

Airbus and Boeing will continue to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space, with a combined delivery projection of 89% of all aircraft through to 2042.

Rob Morris, Head of Consultancy, at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “With global traffic almost back to 2019 levels, the increased levels of order activity in 2023 shows that the airline industry’s new growth cycle is gaining momentum. The 2023 Cirium Fleet Forecast predicts new deliveries will total $3.2 trillion over the next 20 years.

The CFF capacity modelling gives an independent view of future demand for aircraft and questions such as: are higher single-aisle production volumes justified? What will be shares between A321neo and 737-10, A350-1000 and 777-9, A350F and 777-8F? Airbus and Boeing are forecast to take almost 90% of the market but when could they introduce new programmes and what market share will new Chinese programmes take?”

From a regional perspective, Asia will continue to lead the way, with China forecast to have the highest passenger capacity growth rate at over 8%. This will make it the largest single country in the region for deliveries, with a 19% share of global deliveries, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries with a combined share of 24%.

North American airlines follow with 20% and Europe with 18%. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, but the share rises to 11% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher value twin-aisle deliveries.

The Cirium Fleet Forecast adopts a scenario-based approach that favours examining the most up to date information available, combined with expert commentary and analysis. This year’s forecast is based on the recently adjusted version of Ascend’s 2022 Recovery Scenario 7, which is detailed in the full Fleet Forecast report.

To download the executive summary, please visit: https://www.cirium.com/solutions/cirium-fleet-forecast/ or contact Cirium to purchase the full report: https://www.cirium.com/about/contact-us/

About Cirium

Cirium is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. Through powerful data and analytics, coupled with decades of industry experience, Cirium is enabling airlines, airports, travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, and financial institutions, amongst others, to make intelligent and informed decisions that improve operations, grow revenues, and enhance customer experiences.

Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.

For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or visit www.cirium.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240111094841/en/

media@cirium.com

Source: Cirium

FAQ

How many new passenger aircraft deliveries are predicted in Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast?

Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast predicts 45,200 new passenger aircraft deliveries between 2023-2042.

What is the estimated value of the new passenger aircraft deliveries according to Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast?

The estimated value of the new passenger aircraft deliveries is $3.2 trillion, as predicted by Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast.

Which companies are expected to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space according to Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast?

Airbus and Boeing are projected to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space, with a combined delivery projection of 89% of all aircraft through to 2042.

What is the expected growth rate of freight capacity according to Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast?

Cirium's 2023 Fleet Forecast anticipates a 4.1% annual growth rate for freight capacity.

How can I access Cirium's full Fleet Forecast report?

To purchase the full report, you can visit Cirium's website or contact them directly.