Cirium: International Travel Resumes This Spring Festival to China’s Top International Markets of Thailand, Japan and South Korea

Rhea-AI Summary

Cirium predicts strong performance for China's travel sector over the Spring Festival, with top international destinations largely returning to pre-pandemic rankings. Thailand, Japan, and South Korea lead the rankings, while Australia and Macau enter the top 10. Visa requirement changes in Southeast Asia may boost international travel from China. Domestic seat capacity in China has grown 26% in Feb 2024, with Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing as the busiest airports.

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The recent data from Cirium indicating a resurgence in China's travel sector, especially in international travel, presents a positive outlook that could influence various market segments. The return to pre-pandemic rankings for China's top international destinations, with Thailand, Japan and South Korea leading, suggests a revival of tourism and related industries. The inclusion of Australia and Macau and the absence of the United States and Cambodia underscore shifting travel preferences and geopolitical influences on travel patterns.

For investors, this could signal an opportune moment to consider stocks in the travel, hospitality and aviation industries, as these sectors may benefit from increased travel volume. Furthermore, the increase in seat capacity to destinations like Bangkok, Macau, Singapore and Tokyo reflects not only recovery but potential growth in regional travel. The policy changes regarding visa requirements in Southeast Asia are likely to further stimulate this growth, making it an important factor for businesses operating within these markets.

Financial Analyst

The 26% growth in domestic seat capacity reported for February 2024, fueled by China's major airlines, suggests a robust internal market that could impact the financial performance of these carriers. The focus on Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Beijing as the busiest airports could imply a strategic emphasis on these hubs, potentially affecting regional economic activity and infrastructure investments.

From a financial perspective, the strong performance of China's travel sector could lead to increased revenue for airlines and associated businesses. However, it's important to monitor the sustainability of this growth, considering the volatility of travel demand in response to external factors such as health concerns or economic downturns. The 27% lag in overall seat capacity on international routes compared to pre-pandemic levels indicates there is still room for recovery, which may present a gradual improvement rather than an immediate return to form.

Economist

The resurgence in China's international travel is indicative of broader economic trends, such as the recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn and the potential for increased consumer spending on services. The positive momentum in the travel sector could have multiplier effects on the economy, stimulating demand in ancillary sectors such as retail, food and beverage and entertainment. Additionally, the policy decisions to relax visa requirements could be seen as a strategic economic stimulus, aiming to attract inbound tourism and capitalize on the high travel demand during the Spring Festival.

It is essential to consider the balance of trade implications as outbound travel increases, which could impact foreign exchange reserves and domestic consumption patterns. The long-term effects on the economy will depend on the sustained increase in travel activity and the ability of the infrastructure to support this growth without causing inflationary pressures or exacerbating trade deficits.

SINGAPORE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- With the arrival of the Year of the Dragon, China’s travel sector is expected to deliver a strong performance over the Spring Festival, particularly on the international front as air capacity continues to resume, according to leading aviation analytics company Cirium.

China's Top International Destinations, 2019 to 2024 (Graphic: Business Wire)

Data from Cirium reveals that China’s top 10 international destinations have largely returned to pre-pandemic rankings, with Thailand, Japan and South Korea back at the top three positions after dipping to pandemic lows in recent years. Other interesting movements in rankings include the entry of Australia and Macau, and the absence of the United States and Cambodia since February 2019.

While overall seat capacity on China’s international routes (non-mainland) are still 27% behind pre-pandemic levels, there are three bright spots where capacity has surpassed 2019 levels. Scheduled capacity in February 2024 show Bangkok as the city with most arrivals from China, but Macau (+8%), Singapore (+6%) and Tokyo (+2%) show the largest improvements from 2019.

Recent changes in visa requirements, particularly in Southeast Asia will potentially bolster international travel from China. In recent months, Thailand has waived visa requirements while Malaysia will offer 30-day visa-free travel for Chinese citizens. Singapore has also announced plans for the same, which comes as a timely boost for Spring Festival travel.

On the domestic front, China’s seat capacity continues to perform strongly, growing 26% in Feb 2024 against pre-pandemic levels, fuelled by the addition of flights by China’s big three airlines, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern, making Guangzhou (CAN), Shenzhen (SZX) and Beijing (PEK) the busiest airports in China this Spring Festival.

About Cirium

Cirium is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. Through powerful data and analytics, coupled with decades of industry experience, Cirium is enabling airlines, airports, travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, and financial institutions, amongst others, to make intelligent and informed decisions that improve operations, grow revenues, and enhance customer experiences.

Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.

For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or visit www.cirium.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240207747898/en/

For media enquiries: media@cirium.com

Source: Cirium

FAQ

What is Cirium's prediction for China's travel sector over the Spring Festival?

Cirium predicts strong performance for China's travel sector over the Spring Festival.

Which countries are leading China's top international destinations?

Thailand, Japan, and South Korea are leading China's top international destinations.

What are the interesting movements in rankings for China's top international destinations?

Australia and Macau have entered the top 10, while the United States and Cambodia are absent since February 2019.

How much is the overall seat capacity on China's international routes behind pre-pandemic levels?

Overall seat capacity on China's international routes is still 27% behind pre-pandemic levels.

Which cities show the largest improvements in arrivals from China since 2019?

Macau, Singapore, and Tokyo show the largest improvements in arrivals from China since 2019.

What changes in visa requirements in Southeast Asia may potentially bolster international travel from China?

Thailand has waived visa requirements, while Malaysia will offer 30-day visa-free travel for Chinese citizens. Singapore has also announced plans for the same.

How much has domestic seat capacity in China grown in Feb 2024 against pre-pandemic levels?

Domestic seat capacity in China has grown 26% in Feb 2024 against pre-pandemic levels.

Which airports are the busiest in China during the Spring Festival?

Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing are the busiest airports in China during the Spring Festival.