Cirium: Airlines Poised to Fly More Seats During Holiday 2023 Compared to 2022: Intra-European Seats Scheduled Up 10%; U.S. Domestic Seats Scheduled Up 8%

Rhea-AI Summary

Cirium, a leading aviation analytics firm, analyzed historical airline December holiday schedules and found that North American airlines have shown strong operational performance, while Intra-European flying has been weaker. The analysis predicts an increase of over 10% in Intra-European seats flown and 8% in U.S. domestic seats flown compared to 2022. Additionally, U.S. airlines anticipate increased demand for sun destinations, with an 18% increase in seats flown to Caribbean resorts and a 14% increase in seats flown to Florida. The average airfare for U.S. economy tickets was $182, and for Intra-European tickets, it was $105.55 (€96.60 at current conversion rates). North American airlines have achieved an average on-time performance of 85.57% and only 0.4% of flights cancelled, while Intra-European flying has seen 3% of flights cancelled and 69.21% on-time.

Insights

Transportation Analyst

The uptick in seats flown during the holiday period, as reported by Cirium, indicates a positive trend for the aviation industry, particularly in the European and North American markets. This increase in capacity, by 10% in Intra-European travel and 8% in U.S. domestic flights, suggests a recovery in air travel demand post-pandemic. The significant rise in seats to sun destinations and Florida by 18% and 14% respectively, reflects a strategic shift to cater to consumer preferences for leisure destinations.

However, the operational performance disparity between North American and Intra-European airlines, with North American airlines achieving an 85.57% on-time performance compared to the Intra-European airlines' 69.21%, raises concerns about operational efficiency and customer satisfaction in the European sector. The cancellation rates of 0.4% in North America and 3% in Europe could also have implications for revenue and reputation management for the airlines involved.

Investors and stakeholders in the airline industry should note these performance metrics as they may influence airline profitability and could be indicative of underlying operational issues that need addressing, particularly in the European market.

Financial Analyst

The reported data on the average airfare for economy tickets—$182 in the U.S. and $105.55 in Europe—provides an insight into the pricing strategies adopted by airlines in these regions. The pricing power of airlines is crucial for their margin performance and can be affected by factors such as competition, fuel costs and demand elasticity. The increase in flight capacity and airfares could suggest a positive revenue outlook for airlines, assuming that the demand remains robust and airlines can maintain load factors at profitable levels.

For investors, these data points can serve as leading indicators of the financial health of airlines. It is important to monitor whether these increased capacities correlate with higher revenues and to watch for any yield compression due to potential overcapacity or fare wars. Moreover, the operational performance metrics can have a direct impact on cost efficiency and customer loyalty, which are critical for long-term shareholder value.

Aerospace Industry Consultant

The strategic increase in seat capacity during the holiday season is a common tactic used by airlines to capitalize on seasonal demand. The data provided by Cirium suggests that airlines are expecting a robust holiday season. This is particularly relevant for the aerospace industry as it indicates higher utilization rates of aircraft and potentially more orders for new aircraft to meet the growing demand.

The operational performance metrics are also essential for aerospace companies as they can influence airline purchasing decisions. Poor operational performance might push airlines to invest in newer, more reliable aircraft. Conversely, strong performance might lead to increased trust in existing fleets. The technological advancements in aviation, such as fuel efficiency and customer experience features, are often driven by these performance needs.

For the broader industry, including manufacturers and service providers, these trends could signal an upswing in business, but also highlight the need for continuous innovation and support to maintain high operational standards, particularly in the European market where there is room for improvement.

• Aviation analytics firm Cirium analyzed historical airline December holiday period schedules for Intra-European and U.S. flying
• North American airlines have achieved strong operational performance to date in December 2023; Intra-European operational performance less strong this month so far compared to recent months

 

LONDON--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intra-European travel will see an uptick in seats flown this holiday, up more than 10%, according to a recent analysis by the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, Cirium. Similarly, U.S. domestic seats flown is poised to increase by 8% compared to 2022.

The data is sourced by Cirium’s Diio Mi Schedules Tool, widely-used in aviation to analyze airline schedules for more than 1,300 airlines worldwide.

In addition, the U.S. airlines believe their customers will demand more sun destinations this holiday period. Seats flown from the U.S. to Caribbean resort destinations will increase by 18% in 2023 compared to 2022, and seats flown from the U.S. to Florida will increase by 14%. In each of Europe and the United States, Cirium compared December 22, 2023 to January 2, 2024 and December 23, 2022 to January 3, 2023 — just prior to Christmas and immediately following the New Year holiday.

In the U.S. domestic market, Cirium analysis of airfare for 2023 to September 2023 (the latest data available) indicates the average airfare for U.S. economy tickets was $182, one-way, non-directionally averaged, not including taxes and fees. In the Intra-European market, Cirium analysis of airfare for 2023 to September 2023 showed the average airfare for an economy ticket was $105.55 (€96.60 at current conversion rates).

North American airlines have had strong operational performance so far in December 2023 (to December 14, 2023) for their operations within North America, with an average on-time performance of 85.57% and only 0.4% of flights cancelled. Intra-European flying has been weaker so far in December, with 3% of flights cancelled and 69.21% of flights considered on-time. A flight is considered on-time when it arrives within 14:59 of its scheduled arrival time, commonly known in the industry as “A14.” Cirium is the leading source for airline operational metrics, closely watched by airlines and airports to measure their performance.

About Cirium

Cirium is the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics. Through powerful data and analytics, coupled with decades of industry experience, Cirium is enabling airlines, airports, travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, and financial institutions, amongst others, to make intelligent and informed decisions that improve operations, grow revenues, and enhance customer experiences.

Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.

For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or visit www.cirium.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231219543856/en/

For any further media enquiries, please contact: media@cirium.com

Source: Cirium

FAQ

What did Cirium's analysis reveal about North American airlines' operational performance in December 2023?

Cirium's analysis found that North American airlines have shown strong operational performance in December 2023, with an average on-time performance of 85.57% and only 0.4% of flights cancelled.

What is the predicted increase in Intra-European seats flown compared to 2022?

The analysis predicts an increase of over 10% in Intra-European seats flown compared to 2022.

What is the anticipated increase in seats flown from the U.S. to Caribbean resort destinations in 2023 compared to 2022?

Seats flown from the U.S. to Caribbean resort destinations are expected to increase by 18% in 2023 compared to 2022.

What was the average airfare for U.S. economy tickets in 2023?

The average airfare for U.S. economy tickets in 2023 was $182, one-way, non-directionally averaged, not including taxes and fees.

What was the average airfare for Intra-European economy tickets in 2023?

The average airfare for Intra-European economy tickets in 2023 was $105.55 (€96.60 at current conversion rates).