Redfin Reports the Typical Swing State Renter Earns 17% Less Than Needed to Afford a Typical Apartment—An Improvement From the Last Presidential Election

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports that rental affordability in swing states has improved since the last presidential election. The typical renter household in swing states now earns 17.1% less than needed to afford the median-priced apartment, compared to 20.6% less during the last election cycle. This improvement is attributed to rising incomes and sluggish rent growth.

Key findings include:

• Median renter household income in swing states: $50,267 (up 29.3% since last election)
• Median asking rent in swing states: $1,516 (up 23.8% since last election)
• Arizona showed the most significant improvement in affordability
• Michigan was the only swing state where affordability worsened
• Pennsylvania renters face the worst affordability challenges

Despite improvements, many renters still struggle with housing costs, with the typical swing state renter considered "rent burdened."

Positive

• Rental affordability in swing states improved from 20.6% income shortfall to 17.1% since last election
• Median renter household income in swing states increased by 29.3% to $50,267
• Asking rents in swing states decreased by 1% year-over-year
• Arizona experienced the largest improvement in rental affordability
• The share of income needed for rent decreased from 38.5% to 36.2% in swing states

Negative

• Typical swing state renter still earns $10,365 less than needed for median-priced apartment
• Renters in swing states remain "rent burdened," spending over 30% of income on housing
• Michigan's rental affordability worsened since the last election
• Pennsylvania renters face the worst affordability problem, with a 29.6% income shortfall
• Median asking rent in swing states increased by 23.8% since the last election cycle

Insights

Real Estate Market Analyst

The rental affordability landscape in swing states has shown a notable improvement since the last presidential election, with the typical renter household now earning 17.1% less than needed for the median-priced apartment, compared to 20.6% in the previous cycle. This positive shift is primarily driven by rising incomes outpacing rent increases.

Key takeaways include:

• Median renter household income in swing states rose by 29.3% since the last election, while rents increased by 23.8%.
• Arizona experienced the most significant improvement, with the income shortfall decreasing from 12.4% to just 2.6%.
• Michigan stands out as the only swing state where affordability worsened, with rents jumping 12.4% in the past year.
• Pennsylvania remains the most challenging state for renters, with a 29.6% income shortfall.

While the overall trend is positive, many renters still struggle with affordability, spending over 30% of their income on housing. This issue will likely play a important role in the upcoming presidential election.

Political Analyst

The improving rental affordability in swing states presents a complex political landscape for the 2024 presidential election. While the data shows progress, the perception of affordability among voters may differ significantly from the statistics.

Key political implications include:

• Candidates will need to address the disconnect between improving economic indicators and voters' lived experiences.
• State-specific strategies will be crucial, given the varying degrees of improvement across swing states.
• Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with many renters still considered "rent burdened."
• Young voters, who are disproportionately affected by housing costs, could be a key demographic to target with housing policies.

The challenge for candidates will be to acknowledge progress while convincingly addressing ongoing affordability concerns, particularly in states like Pennsylvania where the situation remains dire.

Economic Policy Advisor

The improving rental affordability in swing states reflects broader economic trends but also highlights persistent challenges in the housing market. This data presents several policy considerations:

• Income growth: Policies supporting wage increases have contributed to improved affordability, suggesting continued focus on this area could be beneficial.
• Housing supply: The pandemic homebuilding boom's impact on rent stabilization underscores the importance of sustained efforts to increase housing stock.
• Regional disparities: Tailored approaches are needed to address varying affordability challenges across states, particularly in areas like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
• Young adult focus: Given the disproportionate impact on younger renters, policies targeting this demographic could be particularly effective.

While progress has been made, the fact that many renters remain "rent burdened" indicates a need for continued policy intervention to address housing affordability comprehensively.

During the last election cycle, the typical swing state renter household earned 21% less than they needed to afford the median priced apartment

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — The typical renter household in a swing state earns an estimated $50,267 per year—$10,365 less than the $60,633 a renter must earn to afford rent for the median priced apartment in a swing state. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

In other words, the typical swing state renter household earns 17.1% less than they need to afford the typical apartment. That’s a sizable shortfall, but is an improvement from the last U.S. presidential election cycle, when the typical swing state renter household earned 20.6% less ($10,088 less, in dollar terms) than they needed.

It’s also an improvement from last year, when the typical renter household earned 22.1% less ($13,552 less, in dollar terms) than they needed to afford the median priced apartment.

Redfin’s report focuses on swing states because voters in those states will decide the winner of the 2024 presidential election, and housing affordability—or lack thereof—is a crucial issue on voters’ minds. Redfin considers this year’s swing states to be Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina.

Rental affordability in swing states has improved because incomes have been rising and rents have been sluggish. The pandemic homebuilding boom boosted apartment supply, putting downward pressure on rents. The $50,267 estimated median renter household income in swing states is up 5.4% from a year ago and up 29.3% from the last election cycle. Meanwhile, asking rents in swing states are down 1% from a year ago, and are up 23.8% from the last election cycle—increasing less than incomes. Still, many renters struggle to afford their monthly housing costs.

“America’s swing state voters will decide the outcome of the next presidential election based on the candidates’ plans for tackling key issues including the housing affordability crisis,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “While the economy has been improving on paper, that’s not what it feels like for a lot of U.S. families. Many renters—especially young people—still feel the rent is too damn high.”

The typical swing state renter is “rent burdened”—meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing—but less so than before. A swing state renter making the median income would now need to spend 36.2% of their income to rent the median priced apartment, down from 38.5% last year and 37.8% during the prior election cycle.

Swing State Rental Affordability Has Improved Most in Arizona

The typical renter household in Arizona earns an estimated $57,961 per year—just 2.6% shy of the $59,520 they need to afford the median priced apartment. That compares with a 12.4% shortfall during the last election cycle. Arizona’s 9.7-percentage-point improvement in affordability is the largest of any swing state. The second largest improvement was in Nevada, where the typical income shortfall decreased to 6.5% from 11.8%. Next came North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Arizona experienced the largest improvement in rental affordability because it saw the largest increase in incomes and the smallest increase in rents. The estimated median income of renter households in Arizona ($57,961) has risen 32.2% since the last election, while the median asking rent ($1,488) has climbed 18.9%. Arizona’s asking rents have fallen 4.6% over the last year alone—the biggest decline of any swing state. Scores of people moved to the southwestern state during the pandemic, causing rents to surge, but prices have since come back down to earth as apartment supply increases and temporary pandemic residents move out.

Swing state	Income needed to afford typical rental	Median renter household income (estimated)	Income shortfall	Change in income shortfall since last election	Share of income typical renter household would need to spend on median priced apartment	Median asking rent
Arizona	$59,520	$57,961	2.6%	-9.7 ppts	30.8%	$1,488
Georgia	$61,880	$51,474	16.8%	-3.0 ppts	36.1%	$1,547
Michigan	$53,000	$44,353	16.3%	5.1 ppts	35.9%	$1,325
Nevada	$61,520	$57,547	6.5%	-5.4 ppts	32.1%	$1,538
North Carolina	$58,000	$48,621	16.2%	-3.7 ppts	35.8%	$1,450
Pennsylvania	$69,880	$49,168	29.6%	-3.6 ppts	42.6%	$1,747
Wisconsin	$59,800	$50,358	15.8%	-2.7 ppts	35.6%	$1,495
Swing states overall	$60,633	$50,267	17.1%	-3.5 ppts	36.2%	$1,516

Michigan Is Only Swing State Where Rental Affordability Has Worsened Since Last Election

Michigan is the outlier in this dataset. It was the only swing state that saw rental affordability worsen. The typical renter household in Michigan earns 16.3% less than they need to afford the median priced apartment—worse than the 11.2% shortfall during the last election. That’s partly because asking rents in Michigan have jumped 12.4% over the last year—more than any other swing state. Rents have been rising in the Midwest, in part because it hasn’t been building as much housing as other regions, but also because it offers relatively affordable housing, which is fueling renter demand.

Pennsylvania Renters Face the Worst Rental Affordability Problem

The typical renter household in Pennsylvania earns an estimated $49,168 per year. That’s 29.6% less than a renter must earn to afford the median priced Pennsylvania apartment—the biggest shortfall of any swing state by far. Pennsylvania also had the largest shortfall during the last election cycle. This is because Pennsylvania has a higher median asking rent ($1,747) than any other swing state, while also having one of the lowest estimated median renter household incomes ($49,168).

The typical renter household in Pennsylvania would now need to spend 42.6% of their income to rent the median priced apartment—a higher share than any other swing state, though down from both a year ago and the prior election.

To view the full report, including charts and methodology please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/swing-state-rental-affordability

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240919713441/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

How has rental affordability changed in swing states since the last presidential election?

Rental affordability in swing states has improved since the last presidential election. The typical renter household now earns 17.1% less than needed to afford the median-priced apartment, compared to 20.6% less during the last election cycle.

What is the current median renter household income in swing states for RDFN's analysis?

According to Redfin's report, the current estimated median renter household income in swing states is $50,267 per year.

Which swing state showed the most improvement in rental affordability?

Arizona showed the most significant improvement in rental affordability, with the income shortfall decreasing from 12.4% to 2.6% since the last election cycle.

How has the median asking rent in swing states changed since the last election cycle?

The median asking rent in swing states has increased by 23.8% since the last election cycle, rising less than incomes during the same period.

Which swing state has the worst rental affordability problem according to RDFN's report?

Pennsylvania renters face the worst affordability problem, with the typical renter household earning 29.6% less than needed to afford the median-priced apartment, the largest shortfall of any swing state.