Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Held Steady in Final Run-Up to Election Despite 7% Mortgage Rates

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports that pending U.S. home sales increased 4.3% year over year during the four weeks ending November 3, maintaining stability despite 7% mortgage rates and election uncertainty. The median sale price rose 5.8% to $386,970, marking the biggest increase since October 2022. While pending sales remained resilient, early-stage buying activity showed signs of slowdown, with Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index at its lowest level since mid-September and mortgage-purchase applications down 5% week over week. New listings increased marginally by 0.3%, the smallest rise in a year, as some sellers waited until after the election to list their homes.

Positive

• Pending home sales increased 4.3% year over year
• Median sale price rose 5.8% to $386,970, biggest increase since October 2022
• Active listings up 12.3%

Negative

• Mortgage rates increased to 7.13%, pushing monthly payments near highest level since July
• Homebuyer Demand Index at lowest level in 6 weeks
• Mortgage-purchase applications declined 5% week over week
• New listings growth slowed to just 0.3% year over year

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The housing market shows surprising resilience despite significant headwinds. Pending home sales rose 4.3% year-over-year, maintaining momentum even with mortgage rates hitting 7%. This resilience is particularly noteworthy given both election uncertainty and elevated borrowing costs.

The data reveals interesting regional patterns, with tech hubs showing strength (San Jose leading with 24.7% pending sales growth) while Florida markets experience significant cooling. The 0.3% increase in new listings indicates continued inventory constraints, suggesting sustained price support despite higher rates.

Key indicators point to potential near-term softening: declining mortgage applications, decreased touring activity and a cooling Homebuyer Demand Index suggest transaction volumes may moderate in coming months. The $386,970 median sale price, up 5.8% year-over-year, reflects persistent demand despite affordability challenges.

While home sales remained mostly resilient to election jitters and rising rates, Redfin agents report that some house hunters were waiting to hit the pavement until they knew more about the direction of the country and economy

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Pending U.S. home sales rose 4.3% year over year during the four weeks ending November 3, in line with the increases Redfin has seen over the last six weeks. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

The fact that pending sales held up in the final run-up to Tuesday’s presidential election is somewhat surprising, especially considering that this year’s election season was highly uncertain and anxiety-inducing. Redfin economists say they would also expect high mortgage rates to deter buyers more than they have; mortgage rates have jumped to 7% over the last few weeks, pushing the typical monthly mortgage payment up near its highest level since July. The results of the election are likely to push rates even higher for the foreseeable future; daily average mortgage rates already increased from 7.05% to 7.13% on Wednesday. It’s worth noting one reason pending sales are up is that we’re comparing to a period last year when near-8% mortgage rates drove down sales.

But there are signs that house hunters at earlier phases of the homebuying process pressed pause as the presidential campaigns drew to a close and rates rose. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is at its lowest level since mid-September, and mortgage-purchase applications are down 5% week over week. Redfin agents in places like Philadelphia, Phoenix, Atlanta and Charlotte, are reporting that a fair amount of prospective buyers sat on the sidelines over the last few weeks.

“Buyers have been jittery the last few weeks because of the election. Most of the buyers I’m meeting are looking at a house or two, then telling me they’ll be back in the new year,” said Corey Stambaugh, a Redfin Premier agent in Charlotte. “Some buyers are also bummed out by high mortgage rates, but they tend to understand that rates will change in the future and they’ll probably be able to refinance. Plus, most buyers are used to rates in the 6% to 7% range, and they’ve adjusted their budgets and expectations accordingly.”

On the selling side, new listings rose just 0.3% year over year, the smallest increase in a year. New listings stumbled partly because some sellers were waiting until after Tuesday’s presidential election to list their home.

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.13% (Nov. 6)	Highest level since July	Down from 7.98%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.72% (week ending Oct. 31)	Highest level since week ending Aug. 1	Down from 7.76%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Down 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 1)	Up 2%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Lowest level in 6 weeks (as of week ending Nov. 3)	Up 7%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Down 4% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 3)	At this time last year, it was down 20% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 12% from a month earlier (as of Nov. 3)	Unchanged	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Nov. 3, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Nov. 3, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$386,970	5.8%	Biggest increase since Oct. 2022
Median asking price	$393,125	5%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,607 at a 6.72% mortgage rate	-1.3%	Highest level since July, except the prior week
Pending sales	72,885	4.3%
New listings	79,452	0.3%
Active listings	1,015,595	12.3%	Smallest increase since March
Months of supply	4	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	32.3%	Down from 37%
Median days on market	41	+7 days
Share of homes sold above list price	25.6%	Down from 29%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.7%	-0.3 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Nov. 3, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Fort Lauderdale, FL (14.8%) Milwaukee (13.9%) Warren, MI (9.6%) Nassau County, NY (9.1%) San Jose, CA (8.8%)	Austin, TX (-3.6%) San Antonio (-0.6%)	Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (24.7%) San Francisco (18.7%) Dallas (17.8%) Portland, OR (17.6%) Virginia Beach, VA (17.5%)	Tampa, FL (-25.8%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-16.4%) West Palm Beach, FL (-16%) Orlando, FL (-15.7%) Miami (-14.3%)	Increased in 35 metros
New listings	Seattle (14.7%) San Jose, CA (12.6%) Washington, D.C. (12.5%) Baltimore (10.7%) Anaheim, CA (10.5%)	Tampa, FL (-32.4%) Austin, TX (-17.3%) Orlando, FL (-16.8%) Atlanta (-16.4%) West Palm Beach, FL (-14.6%)	Declined in 17 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-home-sales-rise-election

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241107492989/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was RDFN's pending home sales growth in the four weeks ending November 3?

Redfin reported a 4.3% year-over-year increase in pending home sales during the four weeks ending November 3.

What was the median home sale price reported by RDFN for the period?

The median home sale price was $386,970, representing a 5.8% increase year-over-year.

How did mortgage rates affect RDFN's market in November 2023?

Mortgage rates increased to 7.13%, pushing monthly mortgage payments near their highest level since July, though sales remained relatively resilient.

What was the year-over-year change in new listings reported by RDFN?

New listings rose by just 0.3% year-over-year, marking the smallest increase in a year.